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19 Games Vegas Made Mistakes on College Football Week 7

October 17, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Recapping the season so far as I mentioned on twitter it has not been a good year for me, I have gone 33-37 ATS on the year -23.395% luckily NFL has been good as 12-9 ATS +8.691% and we have done well on our commute podcast going 5-1 ATS. Make sure you tune into that again on Friday as we have been giving some really easy winners. Last Frida we gave out Cal +15 and of course they won outright and covered the spread by 50 points!

So let’s recap and give you out some value betting options for week #8.
This week is as crazy as I can remember. 4 Top 10 teams go down and many other favorites.
  •  South Alabama +800 (road)
  •  Syracuse +1400
  •  California +639
  •  Boston College +720 (road)
  •  LSU +215 (Over #10 Auburn)
  •  Tulsa +470
  •  FIU +435
  •  Arizona State +750
Just for fun – $100 parlay would have cashed – $668 million dollars to put things in perspective.
The same amount of games as week 5. We had 19 games where the oddsmaker’s were off by more than a TD on the spread. The most we have had was 22 in week #3. Let’s go over these and break down what each one means from a betting perspective.
South Alabama covered the spread by 29 points over Troy with an outright upset on the road as 18 point dogs. Troy of course had a week off after their LSU win, but must have been full of themselves a bit. The defense played wel holding South Alabama to 224 total yards, but they turned the ball over too many times and were -3 in TO margin. Betting Take: Do not over react to this one game. Troy, however did only have 299 total yards and could be without their Sr. RB Jordan Chunn who is by far their leading rusher. They have an easy game this week against Georgia State while S. Alabama hosts La.-Monroe.
Syracuse upset Clemson in shocking fashion and they covered the spread by 27 points. Of course Clemson did lose their QB in this game, but what was shocking was Clemson’s defense coming up short in key situations to get off the field and give their offense a chance. Betting Take: Syracuse has to be marked up in the oddsmaker’s power ratings. That’s three straight weeks of hanging with the big boys, LSU, NC State, and now they upset Clemson. I’ll look to fade them in a serious let down fashion. They are 14 point dogs at Miami though which seems high we will see what way that line moves this week. Clemson will have 2 weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech with a road trip to NC State on deck. That will be good news for them, and they should get Kelly Bryant back who is in concussion protocol. Remember this team lost to an unranked team a year ago and went on to win the National Championship. The same thing happened to Alabama the year before and Ohio State the year before that.
California covered the spread by an unbelievable 50.5 points against the spread. We called this one, and even said Cal should have a chance to win the game outright in our analysis which you can find over in our documented records on freddywills.com. Washington State is still ranked, but thoroughly outplayed in this game. Washington State only moved the ball into Cal territory 5 times and came away with 3 total points as they were -7 in TO Margin. Justin Wilcox continues to prove to be a great defensive coach with a Cal team that’s not used to playing defense. Betting Take: Cal in a major hang over/let down spot this week against Arizona, but they are at home and 3 point dogs? That line is a bit puzzling to me as Arizona did just beat UCLA as a dog as well, but they did that at home. I expected a different line and I might be missing something here that I have to take a look at.
Boston College covered the college football against the spread by 22 points over Louisville. I wish I had the guts to fade Louisville more. Already 2-0 ATS this season fading Louisville whom only seems to want to try to get Lamar Jackson the Heisman as he continues to put up video game numbers. Their defense is just not good as BC was able to put up 555 yards in this game, but were still out gained by 70. Betting Take: BC is not as bad as we thought, but I’m not rushing to back them as they open as a 7 point dog to Virginia. Louisville continues to be a fade and are 6.5 point dogs at Florida State. Florida State continues to get better by the week and Louisville is probably the weakest defense they have faced year to date. James Blackman had his best game completing 18 of 21 passes, but had 2 interceptions.
Marshall covered their spread by 32 points over Old Dominion. This one is a bit misleading when you factor in Marshall had just 371 yards in this game and only 50% of their possessions went into Old Dominion’s territory. The problem for Old Dominion is that they lost their QB and have not been the same. They will be a team I might jump on if they get him back where they can keep their offense on the field more. Betting Take: Old Dominion hosts Western Kentucky in a massive coaching advantage. Hard to take Old Dominion right now though as Western Kentucky finally looked like Western Kentucky last week with 627 yards in their huge win over Charlotte. Marshall is a 2.5 point road favorite for Friday at Middle Tennessee and my algorithms have MTSU as a strong lean. I’ll have to dig deeper I know the Blue Raiders have been playing without their QB most of the season and Marshall has been undervalued.
Oklahoma State covered their spread by 17 points over Baylor and dominated this game coming off the bye I expected better things from Baylor, but they gave up 747 yards and 10.52 yards per play. They aren’t the first team to give up such numbers and it appears Oklahoma State is trying to make a statement. Oklahoma state really should have beaten TCU a couple weeks ago as they out gained them by 200 yards, and if that were the case they’d be sitting #4 in the country so we could continue to see some value on them particularly with Oklahoma coming up. Betting Take: Baylor has opportunities and at some point they may pull an upset. This week is possible hosting West Virginia whose pass defense was less than impressive early in their game against Texas Tech. The Mountaineers also have Oklahoma State on deck at home. For Oklahoma State they have two challenging road games at Texas this week, and at West Virginia. They are 7 point favorites at Texas who are in a let down spot, but well coached under Herman who has covered 12 out of 12 games he’s been a dog dating back to 2012 when he was an offensive coordinator. Sam Ehlinger their QB is only going to get better and really reminds me of Tim Tebow.
Ole Miss covered the spread by 19 points over Vanderbilt. I handicapped this one incorrectly as Vandebilt was our POD. I was correct form the perspective that Vanderbilt would finally get the running game going as Ralph Webb had north of 170 yards and if you told me Vanderbilt would have 35 points in this game I would think they would be winning this game most times, but they turned the ball over and Ole Miss just went nuts. Ole Miss future looks bright with those tall athletic receivers and Shea Patterson hucking the ball around. Betting Take:I’m still in fade mode with Ole Miss as their self-bowl ban has to be a factor. Although they could be playing for these coaches if they want them to stay on next year. Vanderbilt is incredibly disappointing this season particularly on defense which is a surprise and they get a bye at the right time.
Uconn won outright and covered the spread by 14.5 points over Temple. This was no surprising as I thought this was a good spot for Uconn and Temple was a bit over valued. High variance game with as fast as Uconn has been playing this year. However, worth noting that Uconn had just 244 yards compared to Temple’s 473 and they should have lost this game based on those numbers. Uconn did not even win the turnover margin, but had a pick six to grab the lead. Uconn’s QB threw 3 passing TD’s and is the bright side of this offense. Betting Take: Uconn should be able to put up a lot of points again this week with Tulsa coming into town and there has been a sharp move taking them from +7 to +6.
Tulsa who we gave out as one of our college football expert picks the previous two weeks and lost covered their spread by an amazing 42 points over Houston. IF there is ever a game we should not over react to it is this one. Especially on Houston’s side. Tulsa finally got away from defending the triple option and held Houston to 17 points while they put up 45. A closer look reveals they were +2 in TO margin, and only +12 yards in the game. Betting Take: Tulsa really has not showed anything that would make them a TD favorite on the road. For Houston, I wouldn’t over react to one game and I actually lean on them this week as a short favorite against Memphis. Defense over offense.
Iowa State in a letdown spot very impressively covered the spread by 22.5 points against the spread. They are a team you just have to take seriously now or do you? Iowa State had just 318 yards in the game and scored 45 points! Kansas managed just 106 yards in this game which is even more impressive for Kansas defense that was on the field a ton and held Iowa State to 318 yards. Betting Take: Kansas seems to show up every other week so I wouldn’t sleep on this team playing well down the stretch for bettors. Iowa State’s offense back to back weeks has put up a lot of points. They are still playing with a walk on QB and with just 4.36 yards per play vs. Kansas I am not overly impressed. However, they are well coached. Iowa State is a 6 point dog at Texas Tech this week in what is an interesting game as Texas Tech was ranked #24 last week. I don’t want to, but sort of lean Iowa State in this one.
FIU covered the spread as 12.5 point dogs by 25.5 points over Tulane as they got an outright upset. FIU really shut down the option holding Tulane to 239 total yards which was impressive as they move to 4-2. We bet on FIU early in the season as they had a ton of experience returning along with a good coach and it seems like we were just too early. FIU will have a bye this week. Betting Take: Tulane also could have been peaking ahead to South Florida this week who they will host. I think Tulane has an upset possibility this week. South Florida’s defense has been playing lights out, but hasn’t seen a decent offense. South Florida’s offense has not been the same despite what perception might tell you.
Arkansas State covered the spread by 17.5 over Coastal Carolina, but they only outgained coastal by 47 yards. I do not feel like this is the same Arkansas State team as years past. Coastal I think was on their third QB for this game and still managed 428 yards of offense. Arkansas State now has a short week playing Thursday against Lafayette, who played last Thursday and has two extra days to prepare. Even though they are preparing that is a huge advantage for a college team. I’d lean Lafayette this week as they are 13 point dogs.
Ohio State covered the spread by 18 over Nebraska in a complete thrashing. JT Barret looked like the best player in the country in this game, but I still can’t fully buy into this team. It is crazy to see how bad they looked early in the year when defenses were able to force Barret into throwing. It will be interesting to see what the line is on the Penn State game next week. I think Ohio State is in a major advantage for scheduling with Penn State facing Michigan this week and Ohio State having a bye week. I know Urban Meyer with extra time to prepare is just hard to beat. Nebraska, Mike Riley has to go at this point. Since he took over they really lack an identity and they seem to get worse each week. I was shocked how poorly this defense played early in the game considering at home and at night. Nebraska has a bye, then they have 3 out of the next 4 games on the road and they might be in jeopardy of missing a bowl game.
Arizona covered the spread by 20 points over UCLA. Really did not understand the sharp line movement in favor of UCLA in this one Thursday into Saturday. It kept me off this game despite my feelings on fading UCLA even off a bye. Arizona has looked really good this year and even outgained UCLA by 196 yards. They had 8.18 yards per play to UCLA’s 5.68 and were +4 TO margin. However, I do think Arizona’s schedule has been weak yet they are 3 point favorites on the road against aforementioned Cal this week.
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Fresno State covered the spread by 40.5 points and this was another game I felt comfortable about Fresno, but was talked out of it by some others in the business. New Mexico benched their SR. QB Lamar Jordan which was surprising and he’ll split time moving forward. Fresno was +204 yards in this game and there was a lot of sharp action on them at +11.5 at San Diego State who lost this past week as the line has moved down to 7.5. New Mexico is a 7.5 point home dog vs. Colorado State. Not sure what to make of New Mexico with the QB situation right now, but I think they definitely have value this week.
Nevada is a different team with their QB we bet on them a few games this year, but they were the wrong spots. They cover the spread here on the road by 22.5 points over Colorado State. Ty Gangi threw for 428 yards, 4TD’s 0 INT and is a clear difference maker for this team. Colorado State was a huge favorite in that game, but I really think it was overlooked what Gangi means to this team. The offense was +1.6 yards per play compared with what Colorado State had been allowing. Nevada moving forward has value so long as Gangi is available, but a tough game against Air Force this week. Triple option always tough to prepare for.
Arizona State covered the spread by 23.5 points over Washington. This was shocking to me how well Arizona State’s defense played. Arizona State held Washington to 3.77 yards per play and 230 yards. Even with this great performance Arizona State still ranks 100th in yards per play allowed so you definitely cannot over react. Betting Take fade Arizona State. They are 9 point road dogs to Utah this week. Washington is an 11 point home favorite to Colorado and I think there is even value there with Washington returning home facing a defense ranking 107th.
Boise State covered the spread by 21.5 points over San Diego State. San Diego State really just ran into a tough situation here playing all of those games in a row against tough competition. Meanwhile Boise State came off a bye and needed to win. Boise now is being over rated again in the market in my opinion as they are 14 point favorites to Wyoming, a previously over rated squad that came up with an impressive victory over Utah State last week. Betting Take Boise State’s offense just isn’t any good. 311 total yards against San Diego State they were helped by two early non-offensive TD’s against San Diego State which really changed the complexion of this game. Boise vs. Wyoming under is more attractive to me as Boise has been playing great defense and Wyoming very under the radar ranking 26th in total defense from a YPP perspective.
Stanford covered the spread by 32 points against the spread. Right now Oregon looks awful in back to back weeks, but their defense is still playing at high level ranking 27th. I like backing dogs with the better defense and right now Oregon’s defense ranks 27th. Vs. UCLA ranking 119th and UCLA is a TD favorite. However, the QB situation at Oregon just looks bad.
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