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| The Dog is hitting 60% with his MLB picks. He has two premium picks in tonight's games. |
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| SHORT STATS | ||||
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| Last 30 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| Overall Picks | +700.0 units | +5.4% | 57% | 59-45 |
| ATS Picks | +635.0 units | +14.3% | 61% | 23-15 |
| Moneyline Picks | +57.0 units | +0.9% | 56% | 24-19 |
| O/U Picks | +8.0 units | +0.3% | 52% | 12-11 |
| Last 60 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| Overall Picks | +1539.0 units | +7.6% | 57% | 92-69 |
| ATS Picks | +1031.0 units | +19.3% | 61% | 28-18 |
| Moneyline Picks | +750.0 units | +6.7% | 59% | 48-34 |
| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | Starts |
| MLB | Sep 03, 2010 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles |
Tampa Bay Rays -187 at JAMAICA |
started |
| Tampa Bay has kept pace with the Yankees the entire season, and has a favorable schedule with their last 10 vs. losing teams while the Yankees face 10 winning teams, including the Red Sox for seven. The Orioles are fair game especially with Kevin Millwood on the mound. The Orioles have lost eight of his last nine starts on the season. Millwood is 3-14 on the season with an ERA topping 5. Matt Garza is a top-of-the-rotation pitcher that is also in the groove right now as the Rays are 3-0 in his last three starts where he has allowed just 2 runs in 21.2 innings. The Orioles are bad, but even worse when Millwood faces a winning team, where they are 1-10 in their last 11. I'll go with Tampa here. | ||
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 02, 2010 Cleveland Indians vs. Seattle Mariners |
Seattle Mariners -151 at SPBOOK |
Lost $151.0 |
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The Indians have definitely improved, but that has shown up more at home than on the road. The Tribe is second to the fading Pirates in road futility as over their last 80 road games Cleveland is a woeful 24-56. That includes 15-40 in their last 55 vs. a right-hand starter. Cleveland has also had problems after a loss, where they are just 32-67 in their last 99. The Mariners are good in the right spot, and that sweet spot is as a good sized favorite. The Mariners bring a 10-2 mark into this one their last 12 times favored from -151 to -200. Doug Fister has completed 17 of his 22 starts by allowing 3 runs or less, and the Tribe's Josh Tomlin is finding too much of the strike zone, allowing 5 HRs in his 35 big league innings. I like Seattle in this one. |
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NFL | Sep 02, 2010 San Diego Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers |
Total 35 ov-110 at BOOKM |
Lost $110.0 |
| This is a game that features two coaches that on the surface appear to care about what happens in the preseason. Both coaches own winning preseason records. Mike Singletary is 6-1 in his preseason games and Norv Turner is 5-0 in game 4's. The Chargers are averaging over 40 points per game this preseason and San Francisco games have averaged nearly 44 per game. I don't see a whole lot changing and I expect this game to sail over the total. | ||
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NFL | Sep 02, 2010 Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs |
Green Bay Packers +6-110 at BOOKM |
Won $100 |
| If your wondering why the Chiefs are a nearly touchdown choice here, so am I. The last time the Chiefs had a winning preseason was all the way back to 2002-03, and they have since gone 6-25 ATS. They have lost their last 10 ATS. Want a solid piece of evidence that this number is loaded with value on the Packers? The Chiefs have not won a preseason game by more than 4 points in their last 25 tries! On top of that, second year coach Todd Haley hasn't ever won a game in the preseason. Maybe the oddsmakers know something I don't, but from what I can see, the Pack and the points is the way to go in this game. | ||
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NFL | Sep 02, 2010 New Orleans vs. Tennessee |
New Orleans +7½-110 at BOOKM |
Won $100 |
| Sean Peyton has played these games through recently, going 5-2 over the last two years. He is pushing his team, even in the preseason, to avoid the complacency that often comes after a Super Bowl win. Jeff Fisher is 30-25 in preseason games, but at 1-2 this season it looks like he has eased up on the intensity we have seen in the past. Once you get into the touchdown range in these meaningless games, the number becomes hard to topple and teams getting 7+ have a very strong track record ATS (last week the Rams won outright as a 7.5 dog). The road team has won and covered four straight in this series in the preseason. We have seen coach Fisher lose a game four straight-up to the Packers, giving 7 points, so no guarantees he turns it on here. I like New Orleans in this spot. | ||
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NFL | Sep 02, 2010 Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns |
Cleveland Browns +2-110 at BOOKM |
Won $100 |
| Oftentimes the longer a coach has been on the sidelines, the less likely it becomes for him to push for wins in these games. Lovie Smith has basically taken a knee this preseason and as a result, the Bears enter this one at 0-3. Chicago has been doubled-up on the scorboard losing by a combined count of 71-36. Eric Mangini has never had a losing preseason, and he seems to save the best for last. His team has put up 27 points already twice this season. With his job in potential jeopordy, every win, even the meaningless ones, count for something. He has only lost once in a game four, while most teams take the proverbial knee. I look for a solid effort from the Browns here, while the Bears watch the clock tick down in an effort to get out injury-free. Cleveland in this one. | ||
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NFL | Sep 02, 2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3-120 at BODOG |
Won $100 |
| These teams could both use an emotional lift with a win in game four here but the fact is, Tampa Bay needs one more than Houston. The Bucs started 0-7 last year and 1-12 through their first 13 games. They lost game four of the preseason a year ago to Houston. I'm not sure if a win means that much to Raheem Morris, but he has a young fragile team, and getting out on a winning note might be deemed motivational here. That is especially true since the Bucs were held to under 200 yards and just eight first downs last game (their first ATS loss of the preseason). While they don't matchup well with good teams playing starters most of the way, they do in this spot. Houston is off a big matchup vs. intrastate rival (and potential Super Bowl team) Dallas so I don't expect them to get up fo rthis one. I like Tampa Bay here. | ||
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NFL | Sep 02, 2010 Baltimore Ravens vs. St. Louis Rams |
Baltimore Ravens +3-110 at BOOKM |
Lost $110.0 |
| The Ravens are looking for their 2nd straight 4-0 sweep in the preseason. If they do get the win here, it will be the fifth time in the last thirteen seasons that they have produced a perfect preseason record (most of any team). So, it appears that someone in this organization wants to win these gaems. The Ravens are 32-18 in their last 50, so getting points with a coach that has won seven staright is the right side here. Steve Spagnuolo has done a good job in his two years in these games, but not against someone willing to fight for the win. His personnel just doesn't matchup here. The Rams have allowed 27 points per game which in the preseason is tremendously high. Meanwhile, the Ravens have allowed just 25 total points in three games. I like Baltimore with the points in this one. | ||
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NFL | Sep 02, 2010 Miami Dolphins vs. Dallas Cowboys |
Dallas Cowboys +1½-110 at BOOKM |
Won $100 |
| The Cowboys are a home dog here and that's signficant for a few reasons. One, home underdogs in the preseason shine, especially in week four (68% and 3-1 last season). Two, the Boys simply win their preseason home games. They have won 15 of their last 19 straight-up at home. And, they should be motivated to perform well here. Wade Phillips has indicated he is not happy with the team's performance this preseason and they were simply embarrassed last week vs. Houston. That doesn't sit well with a coach who has a winning preseason record. While Tony Sparano has shown that he wants to win preseason games, I think Dallas has more motivation here. | ||
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NFL | Sep 02, 2010 New York Jets vs. Philadelphia Eagles |
Total 34 un-110 at BOOKM |
Lost $110.0 |
| The Jets have barely scored at all the entire preseason, while their defense has shined. The last two games the Jets have played would barely top this total combined. I don't expect a sudden opening up of the offense in this one, risking injury the week before the games become meaningful. And with their defense as good and deep as it is, I also don't expect the Eagles to score a lot. I like the UNDER here. | ||
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NFL | Sep 02, 2010 Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars |
Atlanta Falcons +3-115 at BOOKM |
Lost $115.0 |
| Falcons head coach Mike Smith has put together a winning record in his short time at the helm. While Jack Del Rio entered this season with a very good preseason record, his team is 1-2 this season. Their problem has been lack of a running game (averaging just 59 yards per game) and that bodes well for Atlanta here as favorites with a horrible running game are just 1-7 ATS the past six seasons during the preseason. I like Atlanta to at least keep this close. | ||
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MLB | Sep 02, 2010 New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves |
Atlanta Braves -156 at SPBOOK |
Lost $156.0 |
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I think youre gonna see a lot of changes to this Mets team next season, including the manager. A lot of contracts are up, and this team has underachieved for several years. The core may finally be broken of some of the good players, in favor of a fresh start. Meanwhile, they continue to play with no heart or fight. Even when Atlanta played focused and had better teams, has been a burial ground for the Mets. The Mets have gone 24-55 here in the last 79 times in Atlanta. Santana is good, but the Mets can't score, and despite his efforts are just 4-10 in the last 14 road games. Hudson meanwhile is outpitching Santana, and the Braves have the best home record in baseball. Im on Atlanta in this one. |
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NFL | Sep 02, 2010 New England Patriots vs. New York Giants |
New England Patriots +3-105 at BOOKM |
Tie |
| Bill Bellichick had a laydown year in 2008 after having a lot of success in these exhibition games. The Pats went 0-4 in '08, and he has returned to form, as it likely ate at him given his competitive nature. The Pats have since gone 7-3, and when Belichick has an agenda, he is hard to go against. Tom Caughlin in his early years won a lot here, but sits at just 5-10 in his last 15. The Giants brought it against their big rival the New York Jets in week one, but having done nothing since, it looks like they have packed it in. Layer on top of that the fact that the Giants are riding a 9-24 ATS mark in the final two weeks of the preseason, and we have a play on the dog here. | ||
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NFL | Sep 02, 2010 Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals |
Washington Redskins +6-110 at BOOKM |
Lost $110.0 |
| The Cardinals squeaked out a home win in week one of this season but that was their first home win in the preseason in their last eight games! Mike Shanahan is the active king in the NFLX. He has an overall record of 43-20, and is already 2-1 this season. He not only has the best record and most wins, his best foot comes forward in game four. Since 1997 Shanahan has amassed a 10-2 mark in the final week of the preseason, so seeing him on the plus side of a big number is definitely the place to be. Ken Wisenhunt has shown no interest in these games, as his Arizona team is 4-11 in the 15 he has coached. He has also taken the doughnut in week four (0-3). Sometimes 0-3 can be deceiving but not in this case as his Arizona teams have been outscored 68-17 in game four, including a shutout last year. Finally, Wisenhunt is 0-6 ATS as a favorite in the preseason. Washington should keep this close if not win. | ||
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NCAA-F | Sep 02, 2010 USC vs. Hawaii |
USC -21½-110 at BETUS |
Lost $110.0 |
| As is well known, this USC program took some major hits, but it looks like the oddsmakers aren't feeling very sorry for them as they are posted three TDs better than Hawaii on the road. I don't feel sorry for them either. Lane Kiffin returns to USC where he played an integral role for many years, so the change is very subtle. This is a program that has amassed NFL talent in a lot of areas and will be playing with house money, with no expectations. They should come into this one with something to prove and an "us-against-the-world' attitude. If they get a chance to run up the score, you can bet they will. The Hawaii Warriors have had their day in the sun under June Jones and Colt Brennan, but those days are becoming more and more distant. Over the last two years this team is just 13-15. They are not good up front and will struggle early with just three lineman returning on offense and defense combined. Last season, the offense had its lowest scoring output in a decade, while the defense gave up 30 points per game - the worst in five years. Unfortunately, most of the lines from those units are gone and USC has the horses to make this one a blowout. USC gets the call. | ||
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NCAA-F | Sep 02, 2010 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. UAB Blazers |
Total 50 un-110 at BETUS |
Lost $110.0 |
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The oddsmakers had to be torn here as they have seen the meetings between these teams over the past two years result in shootouts, producing 83 and 85 points respectively. Those numbers are gone for these clubs. The Owls saw the departure of four-year QB Rusty Smith, and most of the cast went with him. They return just two starters and no offensive linemen. The Blazers are in a similar state with QB Webb departed, so they will also have an inexperienced signal caller. And, these teams each return nine starters on the defensive side of the ball. So we have two offenses being rebuilt and the defenses from both of these teams return almost in-tact. This one won't be a shootout and will be hard-pressed to challenge the total here. I like the UNDER in this one. |
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NCAA-F | Sep 02, 2010 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders |
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +3+100 at SIA |
Lost $100.0 |
| Taking a glance at this and seeing a Big-10 team playing a Sun Belt team with a field goal to beat the number makes it look very appealing. Hold on! Rick Stockstill has won 20 of his 29 conference games since roaming the sidelines for the Blue Raiders and this is a loaded offense that finished No. 7 in the country last year, winning 10 games for the first time. They were 5-1 at home (while Minnesota went 2-4 on the road). The MTSU line returns four and they have a top QB returning. This team won on the road in ACC country last year which is never easy. Tim Brewster has struggled to get things going in Minnesota where his teams are a horrible 14-24. They return just two starters on defense, with an entirely new defensive line. They are facing a high-octane, experienced offense on the road. This is simply not a good spot for Minnesota and I like Middle Tenn to spring the mild upset. | ||
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NCAA-F | Sep 02, 2010 Southern Mississippi vs. South Carolina |
South Carolina -14-110 at BETUS |
Won $100 |
| Steve Spurrier has had success at South Carolina going 33-25-1 ATS. Under Spurrier, the Gamecocks have recorded more wins than they had in any previous decade (68) and they return with 15 starters off a 7-6 season. The offense returns nine starters, all of its passing yards, over 90% of the rushing yards as well as over 80% of the receiving yards, so the offense should be experienced and better. The Golden Eagles are off an identical 7-6 campaign, but the offense must re-tool with just four starters and just one offensive lineman returning and only three starters from last season. The Gamecocks are experienced at home vs. a Southern Miss team that will be young and facing their first road test. I like South Carolina in this one. | ||
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NCAA-F | Sep 02, 2010 Marshall vs. Ohio State |
Ohio State -28½-110 at BOOKM |
Won $100 |
| Despite the flack he gets, Jim Tressel has done a top-rate job maintaining the tradition of winning at Ohio State. He enters his 10th season with an overall record of 94-21. More importantly his teams have played well above the number overall, going 65-46-2 ATS under his leadership (54-39 as a favorite). He has also not laid down against the big numbers as his Buckeyes teams are a strong 7-4 ATS when giving more 4+ touchdowns. Marshall was a beast for the first four years of this past decade recording a 38-13 straight-up mark, but the program has fallen off sharply. While this team has a tremendous home-field advantage, ranked No. 1 in the country at 118-19, the road has not been their friend. The Herd is just 5-22 in their last 27 on the highway. John Holiday could get this program moving in the right direction as he is a notable recruiter, but for now he has to live with some pieces that don't belong in Columbus for week one. | ||
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SERVICE BIO |
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| Based on nearly 20 years of research and practice, I have developed a consistent successful method for handicapping and picking NFL, College Football, NCAA Basketball, NBA Basketball. Major League Baseball and NHL hockey games. My approach is to make educated decisions based on data, not guesses. I majored in statistics while getting my MBA from the nation's top business school as ranked by BusinessWeek (Kellogg). My professional experience includes helping run a company that utilized statistics and past behavior (predictive modeling) to predict future performance. Wunderdog analysis includes the use of statistics, power ratings, and hundreds of very high-percentage proprietary historical situational systems. The systems purposefully avoids hunches, "soft" data or personal gut opinions. We look for agreement between all of my sources which results in a few games selected, but they are the cream of the crop. |
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