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ACC Betting Value Update Week #6

October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

The ACC is stacked with some really good teams, and we saw some really exciting games in week five.  Clemson vs. Louisville was one of the better games of the year and if you missed the Florida State vs.North Carolina game, you missed a good one.  Florida State’s defense now has given up 36 plays of 20+ yards.  It’s really surprising how much they have missed their leader Derwyn James.  They have a big game as a road dog against Miami, another ACC team flying under the radar with Mark Richt leading the way, but are people jumping on the Miami bandwagon too soon?  Miami is a 3 point favorite this week against Florida State.  It may be a pass for me as far as ncaaf picks go, but let’s take a quick look around the conference in terms of what we are tracking. 

ACC Conference:

We gave more leans out on this conference last week and they went 2-1 ATS, now 7-2 ATS on leans in the ACC.

Winning teams following a win of 21+ ATS, now on the road are 5-1 ATS.  Miami got a nice win over Georgia Tech as a road favorite a week ago.  There were no games where an ACC team covered by 21 or more against the spread.

Winning teams following a win of 21+ ATS, now at home are 6-2 ATS.  Duke giving too much credit for their big win on the road against a bad Notre Dame team.  Duke was a lean, but I knew a bunch of sharps who were on Virginia so I stayed away which was the right decision.  However, the final here is a bit misleading as Duke out gained Virginia, but was able to turn the ball over 6 times to lose this game.  Overall they held Virginia’s running game to 80 yards and 2.2 ypc.  There are no leans for week #6 in this situation.

Winning teams following a loss of 7 + ATS, now back on the road are 13-3 ATS.  Nobody fell into this situation in week #5, but in week #4 Florida State qualified and they will qualify again as they lose to North Carolina by 12.5 points against the spread.  North Carolina led all game long and then Florida State came down to take the lead, but the big plays have haunted Florida State.  They also allowed North Carolina to convert 9-13 on third down and Mitch Trubisky has been extremely impressive this season.  They now go on the road to face Miami as a 3 point road dog.  Week 6 lean – Florida State +3

Losing teams following a win of 7+ ATS, now back on the road are 7-12 ATS, Syracuse almost fell into this scenario last week, but it was a neutral site game so we did not look at it.  Nothing to report for week #6.