I took a deep look at the ACC to find out where Vegas is in the market on these teams and just how accurate they are when they release a line. Notice Vegas sometimes will release a line to attract action on one side, and other times they are extremely sharp. For instance teams like Virginia, and Boston College and Pitt. Vegas has been extremely sharp in their games. Only 6 times in those 3 teams games has Vegas been off by more than 7 points.
For the conference as a whole Vegas has been off by a TD or more 54 times out of 127 possible opportunities. 58% of the time Vegas will be accurate with the line they post by less than a TD. What we hope to see is what the team does the next week ATS. In this situation we are looking for wins ATS the following week the team did not cover the spread by 7 points or less, and a loss following a week where they covered the spread by 7 points or more.
Teams following a win ATS by a TD of 7 or more are a combined 9-20 ATS, if you simply fade them the next week you will win 68.9% of the time this season. If you back a team off a loss ATS by more than a TD they have gone 10-14 ATS which really has resulted in another opportunity to fade a team, although I’d rather fade the teams following a win of 7 or more.
North Carolina – Okay, I guess we should talk about this team after their throttling of Duke this past week. It was my only loss ATS on Saturday as I went 8-1 for an incredible weekend for the second weekend in a row now 14-2 ATS the past 2 Saturdays. Vegas has been wrong about North Carolina by more than a TD ATS 4 times including Saturday’s game where they set them as 7 point favorites and won by 35 points.
Moving Forward – They’ll host Miami this week as nearly a 14 point favorite at 12.5, and I’m sure the public will push this game over the 2 TD spread and I’m definitely going to have to take a look at Miami in this one. North Carolina is 1-2 ATS when they win or lose ATS by more than a TD. Vegas is over adjusting some of these lines by too much and this week will certainly be another situation.
Clemson – Vegas has been wrong on this team 3 different times ATS by more than a TD. They really made significant adjustments after this team covered in back to back week’s ATS as double digit favorites to teams with enough talent. The week against Florida State was a huge win, bigger than Notre Dame, and Clemson came back the next week to defeat Georgia Tech where Vegas was wrong by 11.5 points ATS. Clemson is 1-2 ATS following the week they won ATS by more than 7 points. They have not lost ATS by more than a TD yet.
Moving Forward: It does feel like Clemson won ATS this past week defeating Florida State, but they were 12.5 point favorites. I bet we continue to see Clemson as a huge favorite with inflated numbers. They travel on the road to face Syracuse this week as a 27.5 point favorite. Syracuse not a good team, but has a good home field advantage and has given some teams fits including LSU.
Florida State –Vegas has been wrong with this team 5 times by more than a TD. They missed covering the spread by more than a TD two times, and they covered the spread by more than a TD 3 times. Each time they covered the spread by more than a TD they lost ATS the following week. Each time they lost ATS by more than a TD they were 1-1 ATS.
Moving Forward: Do they even care about the rest of the season after their loss to Clemson? We will have to see I’m not sure they do. Vegas, has been over rating this team all season long it seems. After the Cook 75 yard run for a TD Clemson dominated 23-6 outgained them by 151 yards. If you take that 1 bad play out of the game Clemson really held Florida State in check, while Clemson’s offense was able to pass and run. Florida State is a 9.5 point favorite this week.
Syracuse – Vegas has been off by more than a TD on this team 4 times, and it’s happened twice in the past two weeks on the road against Louisville and Florida State, and now they have to play Clemson as a 4 TD under dog. This could be a very dangerous game for Clemson.
Moving Forward: Syracuse following a game where they won by more than a TD ATS they are 1-1, but following a loss ATS by a TD or more they are 0-1, with this week’s game against Clemson being the 4th time. Deeper look will be necessary, but I definitely like the lean towards the Orange in the Carrier Dome.
Pittsburgh – Vegas has been extremely sharp on the Pittsburgh Panthers. Their only time they were off by more than a TD was against an FCS school to open the season as Pitt lost ATS by 8 points, but followed it the next week and covered by 6.5 ATS as a double digit favorite on the road. However, the stock is super low on this team right now as they have lost 3 games ATS, by a total margin of 15 points. It seems like more, but it’s not.
Moving Forward: Pitt has a tough road game where they have played well this year 4-1 ATS against Duke. Duke coming off a huge beat down so it’s going to be interesting to see if they are able to rebound against a team like Pitt who has no deep threat what so ever which is what really killed them last weke.
Duke – Vegas was off by 28 points last week in Duke’s biggest game of the year where their defense gave up more first half points than the entire season combined. Did the crazy Miami game get to this team? I wouldn’t think so. I think it’s just a bad match up and Duke will get over it, but I’m probably staying away and would advise clients to do so as well.
Louisville – Is in that situation where they are coming off a win ATS by a TD or more. I don’t put too much stock into this as Vegas has been all over the place this team on the year mainly because I think they thought the Cardinals would be better and they’re not. They are 13.5 point favorites this week against Virginia which may be too much however, this may be Louisville’s best chance to get their 6th win to go bowling which is another factor you have to put into these games moving forward I know Vegas does. Virginia has to win out, and has been playing well covering 4 of their last 5 games ATS.
Virginia – Virginia has been playing very weel as I have mentioned and have had one of the toughest schedules with UCLA, Notre Dame, and Boise State in non-conference play where Vegas was pretty sharp on them with the exception of the Boise State game, but Vegas has been wrong by more than a TD just 2 times on the season, both games they lost ATS by more than 7 points, but it’s encouraging to see them as a 14 point underdog knowing this. Definitely going to take a peak at them this week.
NC State – Vegas has been wrong by more than a TD 4 times this year. Most of the time Vegas just doesn’t think NC State is that good or they are trying to draw action on the other side. NC State just goe done beating Boston College by 12 points of margin after the spread, but are just 1-2 ATS in that situation.
Moving Forward – Do not over rate NC State’s performance although they did put up 41 points on Clemson’s defense at home, 35 on a pretty good Wake Forest team, and 24 on a very good Boston College team. They go on the road to face a Florida State team that may not care a ton about the game and are 9.5 point dogs. I would have liked this at 14, it’s a no play for me given the situation, but I would lean towards NC State’s ability to score while Florida State looks like they are in trouble.
Wake Forest – I like to think this team has a pretty good defense, but they have given up 30+ points 4 times this season, and go on the road to face Notre Dame after a bye. Vegas has been so off with this team, but they did just cover the spread by 10 points at home against Louisville, but on the road this team has not been good only 1-3 ATS, and the game they won at Boston College they had no business winning with 142 total yards.
Moving Forward – I don’t really feel like Vegas has a good grasp on this team. They certainly have an above average to good defense, but the offense is so bad when they go 3 and out it really impacts the defense, and it’s hard to figure them out. I would imagine there is value here at +27 against Notre Dame. Notre Dame can allow some offenses to stay on the field, and their hype is higher than it’s been all year. Would not be shocked to see Wake Forest get Notre Dame in a dog fight this week after Notre Dame played back to back road games.
Boston College – Vegas has been wrong with Boston College ATS by more than a TD 4 times this year including this past week where they were 4 point under dogs at home and still they managed to lose ATS by 12 points. That makes back to back weeks of ATS losses by more than a TD. There will be a lot of value on this team when they go on the road to face Notre Dame next week who will be looking ahead to Stanford. Definitely a game that I have circled given that situation. I can only hope Notre Dame dominates Wake to give us some extra incentive unless of course we play Wake Forest this week, which is unlikely since Vegas numbers have been off with that team.
Virginia Tech – Vegas has been off on this team week to week as many times as any other in the ACC. A total of 6 times counting their last game against Boston College where they went on the road and won by 16 as a 3.5 point favorite. They are 0-2 ATS following a week like that this season, and will face Georgia Tech as a 3.5 point under dog. I will say you have to factor in that Virginia Tech is also off a bye, and will have a new coach here. So many other situations to handicap.
Georgia Tech – Also off a bye like Virginia Tech, but they have only beaten 1 FBS school and that was Flroida State, but this is a team desperate to make it to a bowl game and they need wins against Virginia Tech, Miami, and Georgia to do so. Vegas has been off on this team a total of 6 teams, and just like everyone else when they cover the spread by more than a TD they are 1-2 ATS. They lost ATS by 6 points of margin in their last game, and are 0-2 ATS in that scenario this year.
Miami – Is a perfect example of what we want to see in the market over reacting to when a team does well or bad. Following a win ATS where Miami covered the spread by more than a TD they are 0-2 ATS, and following a loss ATS they are 2-0 ATS. This is not the exact science, but I do like finding these spots where I know we will have line value based on perception, and where Vegas wants action.
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