The SEC in 2015 following an ATS win or LOSS ATS by more than 7 points. I look at this to see what kind of adjustments the oddsmaker’s will make in the college football odds the following week. Are they under valuing teams or inflating numbers for teams based on public perception? Why opinion is they have and always have done this and it may not be more true than in the SEC, a conference that the media loves to hype up.
Let’s get right to it.
Following a Win of 7+ points ATS (Winning Teams)
I think it’s important to look at winning vs. losing teams to narrow down our advantage.
Teams with a winning record who won the week before ATS by more than 7 points and were returning home to play were just 4-10 ATS on the year, and 1-5 ATS when they won ATS by 21 or more points the week before.
Week 3 Teams: Here are a few teams to consider based on this statistic. Fade Florida Gators -36 (vs. North Texas), Fade Tennessee -27.5 (vs. Ohio), Fade Arkansas -31 (vs. Texas State),
Teams with a winning record who won the week before ATS by more than 7 points and were on the road the following week actually went 11-3 ATS, and 3-0 ATS when they covered the week before by 21+ ATS.
Week 3 Teams: Here you need to consider Texas A&M +3.5 (vs. Auburn)
Worth mentioning that teams on neutral site fields after this situation of wining ATS the following week by 7+ were 3-1 ATS the next week.
Following a Loss ATS by 7+ points (Winning Teams)
At home the next week these teams were 5-6 ATS which is not anything significant to look at. It’s too small of a sample size either way you look at it, but I would say that Vegas in the past has over rated the SEC and following a loss ATS of 7+ would not adjust a team that much especially a winning team. However, teams with a loss ATS of 21+ went 0-2 ATS the following week. Something worth tracking.
On the road following a loss ATS by 7+, teams went 0-4 ATS the following week and were 0-2 ATS if they had lost ATS by 21+ the previous week. Teams to consider: Fade Georgia was a 52.5 point favorite last week against Nichols. Now they go on the road to face Missouri as a 6 point favorite.
Following a Win of 7+ points ATS (Losing Teams)
Teams with a losing record in 2015 in the SEC who won ATS the previous week returning home were just 1-6 ATS, and going on the road the next week were 1-2 ATS. Teams I would consider to be of this caliber in 2016 are Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and South Carolina.
Teams to consider for week 3 – Fading Vanderbilt won ATS by 20 points last week in a shocking victory and now they go on the road to face Georgia Tech as a 6.5 point under dog. This is one of my leans already with my algorithms this week and will likely find it into my premium play action via a teaser or spread play.
Following a Loss of 7+ points ATS (Losing Teams)
Last year teams returning home or away following a loss ATS of 7+ went 4-8 ATS (1-3 at home, and 3-5 on the road). There is a teams to consider here in week 3. Kentucky, who lost ATS by 24 points at Florida last week will be at home to New Mexico State as a 19 point favorite.
Listen, you can take this all with a grain of salt. All I am trying to show is where you can find value in different conferences based on public perception and how Vegas may move a line to get action. You can listen to the podcast and get a premium NCAAF Picks or simply subscribe to my newsletter.
