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Friday Morning Commute Betting Podcast w/ 3 Premium Picks


October 6, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

This is a Special podcast tonight for your Friday commute as I give out three picks that I am putting my own money on this weekend!  Including my teaser of the week which has gone 20-6 since the 2014 season on college football against the spread picks! I also want to recap the first 5 weeks really quickly, because I know for a fact people are looking to profit and get rich quick in this business.  I have always been up front with my records and history.  I’ve never claimed to be a 70% ATS winner that’s impossible.  All I have done is win 56% ATS over the long term and win big on my big plays at a 63% clip which is hard to find someone that can do that. With that said this season has been extremely frustrating as I am now 24-24 with a net loss of 3.7 units, but looking back on the first 5 weeks I am extremely confident moving forward.  We got a win on Wednesday night with Arkansas State despite -5 TO’s, and we have a key play pending as I do this podcast. Before we get to the premium plays and week […]

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Protected: weeksixpicks


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

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Week 6 News & Promo


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Overall it’s been a very frustrating start to the season, but again betting on sports is a marathon and I know far too many people that give up on handicappers after a week or people who try to time it with handicappers after a hot streak.  It just does not work that way.  With that said my records are very transparent over at freddywills.com  as I do not try to mislead anyone.  Here are the facts: I’m 1-3 ATS in my premium picks newsletter, I’m 5-1 ATS on my complimentary plays. I’m 3-2 on max rating POD’s, 3-1 ATS on Teasers – NCAAF POD Report I’m 23-24-1 ATS overall and -5.7% of my bank roll.  You can check this out in my College Football ROI Tool. If you don’t believe me make sure you check the long term reports on our college football leaderboard or simply choose some of our other top handicappers to follow! WEEK 6 PROMO: Keeping it extremely simple this week.  Get all of my picks that includes my Teaser of the Week (already available) 24-6 ATS L2 Season, My signature MAX Rating POD – 80-47 ATS in my career! $34.99 GUARANTEED PROFIT OR YOUR $$ BACK + […]

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PAC 12 Betting Value & MOV Against The Spread Analysis


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

The PAC 12 is full of variance these days.  It seems like on any given Saturday any team can pull the upset.  Although right now Washington seems to be the best team in the conference after a 30+ win form a College football against the spread perspective as they simply dominated Stanford from start to finish.  It was the most impressive win of the weekend and it was the only game on TV at the time on Friday night.  Bettors will definitely remember that moment.  I’m not sure how I feel about Washington at the moment, but let’s break down the following scenarios. WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS: Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home 2015 – These teams went 10-12 ATS including 4-6 ATS following a 21+ win ATS. 2016 – This year it’s been a bit different as these teams are 5-1 ATS and 1-0 ATS following a 21+ win ATS. Week #6 Action – USC won by 11 ATS now at home vs. Colorado as a 5 point favorite. Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS now on the road  2015 – These teams went 6-7 ATS with a 1-0 record following a 21+ point ATS victory 2016 […]

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SEC Betting Value Recap & Week 6 Leans


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

The SEC saw our play of the day cash from  college football against the spread perspective.  It was certainly not an easy win as we covered on our podcast Monday night.  It was a game full of emotions, but overall it was a sign that our luck may be turning around. Other highlights were LSU dominating in their first game after firing Les Miles.  Overall the college football odds were pretty damn accurate in the SEC in week #5.  Just 2 games were off by more than a TD against the spread. SEC Conference: Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS, returning home are just 7-12 ATS overall, and 2-5 ATS following a 21+ point victory ATS.  The lean a week ago was to fade Ole Miss.  I actually backed Ole Miss in the scenario for various reasons check out my archived analysis.  No leans for week #6. Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS, going back on the road are 12-5 ATS overall, including 3-0 ATS following a 21+ point victory ATS.  There are 2 teams to back in week #6.  Following big wins Auburn and LSU head onto the road as small favorites.  LSU -2.5  against […]

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Big Ten Betting Value Update Week #6


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

From a College football against the spread perspective the Big Ten betting value leans did not do well in week #5 going 1-3-1 ATS.  We saw Michigan State choke one away on the road at Indiana.  Iowa lose again, it was a nice ride Iowa.  Ohio State looking like Ohio State against a banged up Rutgers team, getting an easy win and cover.  Maryland flexed their muscles against a bad Purdue team winning 50-7.  Michigan beat Wisconsin in a bit of a snoozer 14-7, but Wisconsin had plenty of chances in this one.  WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS: Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home were just 8-14 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season.  That includes a 4-4 ATS mark in 2016.  Week #5 leans went 1-1 as Wisconsin covered, but Rutgers did not.  Week #6 Leans –  Ohio State got a 20 point cover and returns home to face Indiana as a 29 point favorite.  Lean – Indiana +29. Winning teams following a loss of 7+ ATS now on the road are 6-4-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season.  This scenario does make sense as a team following a big loss would typically be undervalued the next week.  Week #6 Lean – Iowa […]

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ACC Betting Value Update Week #6


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

The ACC is stacked with some really good teams, and we saw some really exciting games in week five.  Clemson vs. Louisville was one of the better games of the year and if you missed the Florida State vs.North Carolina game, you missed a good one.  Florida State’s defense now has given up 36 plays of 20+ yards.  It’s really surprising how much they have missed their leader Derwyn James.  They have a big game as a road dog against Miami, another ACC team flying under the radar with Mark Richt leading the way, but are people jumping on the Miami bandwagon too soon?  Miami is a 3 point favorite this week against Florida State.  It may be a pass for me as far as ncaaf picks go, but let’s take a quick look around the conference in terms of what we are tracking.  ACC Conference: We gave more leans out on this conference last week and they went 2-1 ATS, now 7-2 ATS on leans in the ACC. Winning teams following a win of 21+ ATS, now on the road are 5-1 ATS.  Miami got a nice win over Georgia Tech as a road favorite a week ago.  There […]

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winning


September 27, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Get all of my NCAAF PICKS this weekend for Just $24.99 GUARANTEED OR $$ BACK + WEEK 6 FREE

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BIG TEN MOV ATS IMPACT & VEGAS MISTAKES


September 27, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

In week 3 we broke down the SEC, and our leans went 5-1 ATS.  Week 4 we broke down the ACC, and again the leans we gave out went 5-1 ATS.  Today we break down the Big Ten conference in terms of margin of victory against the spread.  We take a look at all teams in the Big Ten and see what kind of mistakes Vegas makes the week following a big win ATS.  I personally did not have any College football against the spread in week #4 on any Big Ten teams which is typically one of the better conferences for me.  WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS: Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home were just 7-13 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season.  That includes a 3-3 ATS mark in 2016.  Week #5 leans – Fade Michigan -11.5 off a huge win ATS last week and are home for the 5th game in a row hosing Wisconsin, A team still flying a bit under the radar.  Also fade Ohio State-38.5.   I mean I would not be psyched to fade Urban Meyer off a bye especially with only Indiana on deck for the Buckeyes.  It’s a no play for […]

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SEC College Football Betting Value Update & Week 5 Leans


September 27, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

In week 3 we broke down the SEC, and our leans went 5-1 ATS.  This week we give you a full recap around the SEC as far as betting value is considered.  I think there were several misleading finals including our POD pick on Arkansas and Tennessee looked a hell of a lot better in their game as we backed them in our teaser.  We are now 24-5 since 2014 on teasers and all 6 of our recommended selections have actually won from a college football against the spread perspective. SEC Conference: Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS, returning home are just 6-12 ATS overall, and 1-5 ATS following a 21+ point victory ATS.  Week #5 Lean – Fade Ole Miss and take a look at Memphis +14.  Ole Miss got a huge victory last week against Georgia as a 7 point favorite winning 45-14.  That final was a bit misleading and the idea is that Ole Miss line would be inflated this week.  If you look at the box score this game was not as lopsided as the final score indicates.  I probably won’t play this considering Memphis also off a huge victory of 77-3 over Bowling Green. […]

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ACC College Football Betting Value Update & Week 5 Leans


September 27, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

In week 3 we broke down the SEC, and our leans went 5-1 ATS for college football picks.  Week 4 we broke down the ACC, and again the leans we gave out went 5-1 ATS.  We will continue to update you on how we do from conference to conference.  I would say the biggest stories out of the ACC for week #4 was Florida State’s offense looking so good.  Clemson looking like Clemson and Louisville dominating again in a crazy line move of over 14 points from where it opened at 17.  Here is a look at some of the value propositions we are keeping track of as well as leans for week #5 for college football bettors.  ACC Conference: As I mentioned we broke down this conference a week ago and gave out leans on our podcast.  The leans went 5-1 ATS and we have more for you in week #5. Winning teams following a win of 21+ ATS, now on the road are 4-1 ATS.  Louisville was a win last week at Marshall.  Week #5 leans – Miami -7 at Georgia Tech as Miami comes off a win of 21+ and is now on the road also following a bye […]

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WEEK 4 COLLEGE FOOTBALL WINNERS


September 23, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Get This weekend’s play for Just $26.97 GUARANTEED OR $$ BACK + WEEK 5 FREE ***WHAT’S ON DECK FOR WEEK #4 FOR #1 CAREER LEADER FOR CFB!*** MAX Rated POD – 79-46 ATS (63.2%) on my TOP RATED PLAYS! – 15-7 ATS Career Backing This Team! TEASER OF THE WEEK – 2-0 THIS YEAR & 23-5 SINCE 2014! TOTAL OF THE WEEK – 57% ATS CAREER 71% CAREER BACKING 1 TEAM! 42-28 ATS Career in Week 4 *Games involved: Florida State / South Florida , Florida / Tennessee, Oklahoma State / Baylor, Arkon /App State, VAnderbilt / Western Kentucky / Arkansas / Texas A&M, LSU/Auburn!  Contact me – fw@freddywills.com  / Twitter @freddywills / Subscribe on ITUNES / www.freddywills.com / Freddy’s College Football ROI Tool  Other Links:  Free College Football Picks – From 100+ handicapper / Buy Premium Sports Picks Tonight / Check our handicapper leaderboard  

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Protected: picks


September 22, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

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ACC Betting Value Following MOV ATS


September 19, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

We broke down Betting Value: SEC Conference Following Big Losses or Wins ATS last week and teams we mentioned were leans by fading or backing them actually went 5-1 ATS in week #3!  Stay tuned for more SEC betting value in future podcasts.  Today we are breaking down the ACC in the same way. Teams with a winning record following a WIN ATS of 7+ points At HOME these teams have had success the last 2 seasons and early in 2016. 2014 -11-5 ATS (5-0 ATS – following a win ATS of 21+) 2015 – 4-7 ATS (2-2 ATS – following a win ATS of 21+) 2016 – 2-1 ATS Takeaway: 17-13 ATS total with 7-2 ATS record following a 21+ ATS victory. Teams falling into this situation for week 4 – Georgia Teach & Virginia Tech both had wins of 21+ ATS last week. On the ROAD these teams have been .500, but following a win ATS of 21+ they have gone 3-1 ATS. 2014 – 5-4 ATS (1-0 ATS – following a win ATS of 21+) 2015 – 5-6 ATS (2-1 ATS – following a win ATS of 21+) 2016 – 1-1 ATS Teams falling into this situation for week 4 – Louisville & Miami both had wins […]

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College Football Betting Podcast – Week 3 Recap & Week 4 Outlook


September 19, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Follow up to last week’s show on the SEC, and betting value.  If you didn’t get a chance to listen go back, because you can use it for future weeks ahead. So we said fade: Tennessee – WIN Arkansas – LOSS AUBURN – WIN GEORGIA – WIN VANDERBILT – WIN KENTUCKY – WIN Stay tune to our show later this week as we tell you who to look at fading or backing for week #4!  We will also be looking at the ACC Conference for this very SAME SYSTEM for betting value and College football picks against the spread Now let’s get into how I did on my actual plays given out to clients.  Many of you were on these and aside from my teaser of the week and my big play of the day it was a very unfortunate week going 5-5 -2.5 units.  My first losing week 3 in my history.  The good news is we had some bad luck, and that always tends to turn itself around and I have also dominated week #4. 5 of 7 winning weeks for week #4 with a combined 42-27 ATS record good for 60.8% ATS winners and a profit of $44,558 […]

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