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College Football Betting Recap Week 1 Part 2


September 6, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Miami OH vs. Marshall We had Miami Ohio at +8.5 on a teaser with Alabama and were lucky enough to get a cover.  This was one of the biggest line moves after Miami Ohio was as much as a 3 point dog closed as a 4 point favorite in some places.  The sharp movement was spot on as Miami Ohio had +10 first downs, +162 total yards, but still managed to lose the game.  They allowed Kelon Davis to take two kickoff returns back for TD’s and a 72 yard interception return which was a 14 point swing in the 3rd quarter.  Betting Take:  Marshall is still on my list as one of the most improved teams for 2017, but they did not look very good against Miami Ohio and they have NC State this week.  I am surprised by the 24 point spread and would lean towards Marshall, but I will definitely pass.  Miami Ohio is still on my list of teams to bet on in the MAC.  Their defense clearly proved they are the best in the conference and we will continue to get value on them after they lost this game.  They’ll play Austin Peay this week […]

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College Football Week 1 Recap – Future Betting Advantages Part 1 of 2


September 6, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

  Last week our premium newsletter gave out a premium College Football Picks Against The Spread play (info clients pay for) on Nevada +24 an easy cover over Northwestern.  Newsletter plays go out on Thursday’s so if you subscribed after you likely missed the play!  Nevada actually had a 17-7 lead at half time as we cruised to an easy cover! Along with my premium newsletter I have a week #2 promotion that you can find by going to freddywills.com/promo under recent articles.  I also have it linked in the show notes. It’s worth mentioning that I have a 30-15 ATS record over my career that’s 67% winners ATS on Saturday’s week2!  Ohio State vs. Indiana – 21 Ohio State covered I felt like our play on Indiana was on spot.  They clearly did not have the depth to stay with Ohio State.  The one thing I learned from this match up was the fact that teams that play fast and both of these teams picked up the tempo.  All that means is it’s easier for the favorite to cover the big spreads, because it’s like they are playing 5 quarters.  It’s something I should have looked into a little more.  […]

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Protected: week1picks


August 31, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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Turnover Luck 2016 Converts to 2017 Success!


August 18, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

  Turnovers are certainly something you can handicap.  Everyone knows that certain teams are more prone to turning the ball over based on a variety of factors such as poor offensive line play or poor QB decision making, poor receiver hands or even a lack of hustle or just luck.  Sometimes the ball does not bounce your way and that was the case after six weeks last year we bet on teams that had a 30% fumble recovery rate.  To put that in perspective on how unlucky we were handicapping games.  The 128th team in the nation last year was Purdue with a 28% recovery rate and #126 was Charlotte at 32%.  What does it all mean?  It’s hard to see the same thing happening in back to back years.  At minimum we should revert back to the mean of 50%.  Teams on my radar this year that had poor fumble recovery rates are, Oklahoma State, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Connecticut and Notre Dame all were under 40%. Phil Steele has a great article in his magazine that breaks this down even further and even takes a look at the luckiest teams in the nation from a year ago and hypothesizes […]

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Toughest College Football Conference For 2017


August 14, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Last year I spoke about this and claimed ACC to be the best of the Power 5 and the Big Ten to be trending backward at least for one year based on experience.  I used that all year to back ACC teams and Clemson on the way to a National Championship.  This strategy won me a lot of big games last season, but lets take a look at how the ACC did against each Power 5 conference in detail: vs. Big Ten – 6-2, 5-3 ATS (including 3-1 in bowl games) vs. Big 12 – 1-1 SU & ATS vs. Pac 12 – 0-2, but 2-0 ATS (Stanford by 2 over UNC, and Oregon over Virginia) vs. SEC – 10-4 , 9-5 ATS Overall the ACC went 17-9 straight up and ATS against the POWER 5 Conferences. Last year I leaned on quality of coaches and the fact that the ACC had the most experienced conference from a lettermen perspective.  Obviously there is not an exact science for picking the toughest conference and honestly it’s not something I’m really passionate about getting into.  I lean on Phil Steele and if you don’t have his magazine you should.  On page 33 […]

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Top 5 Non Power Five Coaching Moves – 2017


August 10, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

South Florida – Charlie Strong  I saw a title out there from SBnation stating that “If Charlie Strong had this USF roster at Texas, he’d still be there.”   Come on I mean really?  USF plays in the American Athletic Conference not the Big 12.  Even though I am not high on the Big 12 there is still a big jump in consistent competition between the two conference.  Since 2013 when the conference started the AAC is 4-10 vs. the Big 12 getting outscored by an average of 17 points. Charlie Strong did a great job when he was playing in a conference where he was not overwhelmed.  I think Strong was a bit out of his league in Texas.  Strong has 16 starters back (9 on defense), and will have one of the best offenses in the country led by his senior QB Quinton Flowers, a dark horse for the Heisman.  This team broke all kinds of school records last year on their way to averaging 43.8 ppg.  I expect the same this year and I had them listed in my surprise teams as the schedule sets up really nicely for a possible 12-0 season! If Strong can get […]

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Top 5 College Football Power Five Head Coach Moves 2017


August 10, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Here is last year’s article – Top 10 College Football Head Coach Moves 2016 This year is in no particular order, but I am going to talk about the power 5 big coaching moves first. Baylor – Matt Rhule, coming over from Temple replaced Jim Grobe who stepped in just to settle the ship after the Baylor scandal.  This team lost their entire recruiting class a year ago, and Rhule definitely gets a pass this year, but I’m not so sure he’s going to need it.  This is a team that started 6-0 and went 0-6 to close the year out once their schedule got tougher, but lets talk about Rhule. Rhule is clearly a different style head coach compared to Art Briles.  Actually there couldn’t be a more different style in comparison.  Baylor was reliant on offense to win games. Rhule was not. Baylor operated with extreme tempo. Rhule did not.  Temple was 86th, in pass % last year and I definitely think we will see a similar style in play from Rhule at Baylor.  Betting Take –  That means we won’t see as many high scoring games from Baylor.  I think Baylor also because of the limit they […]

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2017 Non-Power Five College Football Surprise Teams


August 8, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

These teams won’t contend for a national title, but they will be in the mix for a New Year’s Day bowl game, and also on my list for betting value in key situations throughout the season. Ohio Bobcats – Out of the MAC we have Ohio with Frank Solich in his 13th year here.  This team returns 13 starters, but should be in good position schedule wise to be in contention and get into the MAC title with a chance at winning it for the first time since 1968.  As we all know from my previous podcasts I usually rate the MAC West over the MAC East and there is a lot of data that supports those claims over the years.  This year though I think Ohio has a shot.   They do draw Toledo out of the West, but this team has a deep stable of running backs behind an experienced offensive line that could put them in the title game. South Florida – Head coach Willie Taggart departs for Oregon and enter Charlie Strong (fired from Texas).  So let’s just talk about Strong for a bit here, because I still do believe he is a good coach and that’s going […]

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College Football Betting Power Five Surprise Teams 2017


July 29, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

 NCAAF POD Report College Football ROI Tool. $1199 for the season!  Listen to the podcast to find out how you can get a major discount!  These are teams you would not expect to be in the discussion for the college football playoff, but that’s exactly what I’m talking about here today.  This also means each and one of these teams will have betting value this season, because nobody is considering them to be in the mix as a top 4 team at the end of the season.  We have seen it in years past there is always a surprise by the end of the season, and last year it was Washington.  While most people will be picking Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, USC and or Oklahoma to be in the top 4 I’m giving a few teams that are big names and off the radar of most. #7 Kansas State Who doesn’t like HC Bill Snyder.  The guy is a legend and I’m happy to see him back on my list.  Snyder is a great coach for football and life. Just follow his 16 goals for success – commitment, unselfishness unity, improve, be tough, self discipline, great effort, enthusiasm, eliminate […]

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2017 Top 5 College Football Coaching Hot Seat


July 29, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Listen to the podcast or read the article below! I’m now entering my 9th year doing this professionally.  I have had 7 of 8 profitable years with an average 47.55% return on investment per season.  Last year we earned clients a 34.21% return on investment over the 5 months that is the college football season.  Simply download a copy of my return on investment tool to predict your profit by visiting  NCAAF POD Report College Football ROI Tool. $1199 for the season!  Listen to the podcast to find out how you can get a major discount!  #5 Jim Mora – UCLA Another great recruiter, but another bad coach.  Many could argue it’s because of injuries, but you can’t simply give that excuse every year.  UCLA ranks 13th in 5 year average recruiting rating but the results simply aren’t there and have been declining.  His first 3 years he talied 29 wins, but the last 2 he had just 12 including a 4-8 season in 2016. Jim Mora opens with Texas A&M a crucial game in the hot seat scenario (stay tuned), the schedule is not easy and we will talk about it on our next podcast.  Mora has the best […]

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ACC Betting Value Update Week #10


November 1, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

ACC Conference: Winning teams following a win of 21+ ATS, now on the road are 6-3 ATS.  No leans this week Winning teams following a win of 21+ ATS, now at home are 6-3 ATS.  No leans this week Winning teams following a loss of 7 + ATS, now back on the road are 15-4 ATS.  There are two teams we would be looking to back given this situation. Louisville -25 – They just lost ATS by 25 or 25 points, now they go on the road to face Boston College as a 25 point favorite.  They definitely need to show the committee why they deserve a shot at the college football playoff so I despite they show their greatest effort much like Clemson did in their weekday road game at Boston College. Losing teams following a win of 7+ ATS, now back on the road are 9-13 ATS Syracuse won ATS last time out and are now on the road against Clemson, I would actually lean towards taking Syracuse given that Clemson is off a huge game against Florida State.  Clemson is going to have to score into the 50’s to cover this number. Virginia won ATS and is now on the […]

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BIG TEN Conference Betting Value Week #10


November 1, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

From a College football against the spread perspective the Big Ten betting value leans have been pretty accurate for what i have been tracking.  If I simply followed the leans I wrote about back on October 4th.  I would have gone 14-3 ATS.  Oh well some things you simply can’t predict like Michigan State falling apart, and Penn State being a #12 ranked team, but we are towards the end of the season and things become easier to predict for me.  The week #10 game of the week is Penn State vs. Iowa.  WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS: Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home were just 10-18 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season.  That includes a 6-8 ATS mark in 2016.  Week #10 leans – Fade Penn State off a win ATS of 24 points now at home vs. Iowa as a 7.5 poitn favorite.  Fade Minnesota who is a off a misleading win ATS, now at home as a 17 point favorite.  Fade Northwestern who is off a win ATS against Ohio State now at home as a 7 poitn dog agaisnt Wisconsin.  We have 3 games to look at this week based on this trend. Winning teams following a […]

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SEC Betting Value Week 10 Update


November 1, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Overall the college football odds for the SEC Conference have been pretty tight and it’s one of the more difficult conferences to handicap.  You have Alabama continuing to just cover big road chalk no matter what and we will see that again this week against LSU! SEC Conference: Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS, returning home are just 12-12 ATS overall, and 3-5 ATS following a 21+ point victory ATS. Week #10 Tracking – Kentucky won ATS by 21.5 ATS now at home vs. Georgia (fade Kentucky) – I have heard a few sharps already on Kentucky, but if Kentucky can’t run the ball they truly struggle to win games this is a step up even if Georgia is coming off a rivalry game. LSU won ATS now hosting Alabama as an 8 point dog – I like leaning towards LSU here with a teaser given that the total is in the low 40’s. Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS, going back on the road are 15-5 ATS overall, including 4-0 ATS following a 21+ point victory ATS.  No winning SEC teams are following a win and are back on the road this week.  Winning teams following […]

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PAC 12 Betting Value Week 10 Update


November 1, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

This article is an update from our previous posted PAC 12 Betting Value based on MOV posted in early October. WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS: Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home – 17-19 ATS since 2015 2015 – These teams went 10-12 ATS including 4-6 ATS following a 21+ win ATS. 2016 – This year it’s been a bit different as these teams are 7-6 ATS and 1-3 ATS following a 21+ win ATS. Week #10 Tracking– Stanford -14.5 at home vs. Oregon STate Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS now on the road – 10-10 college football against the spread since 2015 2015 – These teams went 6-7 ATS with a 1-0 record following a 21+ point ATS victory 2016 – These teams are 4-3 ATS with a 1-1 record following a 21+ point ATS victory Week #10 Tracking – Nothing Winning teams following a loss of 7+ ATS now at home – 8-4 ATS since 2015 2015 – These teams went 6-2 ATS with a 1-0 ATS record following a 21+ point ATS loss 2016 – These teams went 2-2 ATS so far with a 1-1 ATS record following 21+ Week #10 Tracking – Washington State -17 vs. Arizona  Winning teams following a […]

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AAC Conference Betting Value Update Week 10


November 1, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

This article is an update on our previous podcast where we went over some betting value spots in the AAC WINNING TEAMS FOLLOWING A WIN ATS OF 10 OR MORE POINTS RETURNING HOME – 17-6 ATS since 2015 Back Tulsa -8 GOING ON THE ROAD – 15-10 ATS since 2014 (5-2 21+) Back Temple -10 at Uconn LOSING TEAMS FOLLOWING A WIN ATS OF 10 OR MORE POINTS RETURNING HOME – 3-7 ATS since 2015   GOING ON THE ROAD – 7-3 ATS since 2015 Back East Carolina +8 at Tulsa (We also have Tulsa as a lean so we will not be playing this one) However losing teams following a win or loss of 21+ ATS are now 3-8 ATS since 2015 so if anything we would fade East Carolina   WINNING TEAMS FOLLOWING A LOSS ATS OF 10+ ATS RETURNING HOME – 7-4 ATS since 2015 GOING ON THE ROAD – 5-2 ATS since 2015 Back Memphis -3 at SMU LOSING TEAMS FOLLOWING A LOSS ATS OF 10+ RETURNING HOME – 5-9 ATS Fade Uconn vs. Temple after they L ATS by 30 Fade Cincinnati vs. BYU after they L ATS  by double digits now at home vs […]

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