Miami covered the spread by 19.5 points against the spread over Duke. This was a 17-6 game for a long time and it looked like Duke was just one play away, but it never happened despire being just -60 total yards and having 24-19 in the first down advantage. This was a clearly misleading final and the two turnovers had something to do with it as well. Miami, definitely still has a lot to prove to me but they were +3.73 yards per play in this game. Duke was fortunate to run +27 plays in this game, but managed just 1.5 points per trip in Miami territory. Betting Take: Duke still has value moving forward and are going to be a tough opponent. They go on the road to face Virginia (off a bye and Boise win) in what should be a game many sharps fight over. Duke is a 2.5 point favorite and I suspect that line will move closer to a pk. Miami is making up their game against Florida State who did not look good last week at all. We gave it out as our Friday commute play and I hope many of you pushed. I had it […]
Read more..Promos – www.freddywills.com/week5 On today’s podcast we will talk about the biggest oddsmaker errors for week #4 and give you reasons to back 4 teams in our buy low sell high report which has gone 80% ATS the last two weeks. And if you are Just fading teams in week 4 that were able to cover by 14+ points against the spread in week 3 then you would have gone 11-5 ATS. You would have had to fade teams like Penn State, Clemson, Miss State, Oregon, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ake Forest, and more. If you did this in week 3 you would have gone 6-7 ATS with two teams carrying over this week because they had a bye in week 3 and those went 2-0 ATS. So overall the last two weeks 19-12 ATS fading teams that have are off a 14+ margin of victory over the spread. I’m not going to blindly back or fade these teams on today’s report. If anything this just teaches me discipline whenever I love a side and it just so happens to be a team that just covered the spread by a large margin. I’m going to think twice about it because I always […]
Read more..Visit www.freddywills.com/betonline for an exclusive bonus. You get a $25 risk free bet for signing up along with a 50% sign up bonus up to $2500. Contact Me – fw@freddywills.com/ Twitter @freddywills / Subscribe on ITUNES / http://www.freddywills.com / Freddy’s College Football ROI Tool Sportsbetcapping.com bring you 100+ professional handicappers: Sports Handicapper Leaderboard | Free College Football Picks – From 100+ handicapper / Buy Premium Sports Picks Tonight / Check sports betting against the stock market VEGAS MISTAKES WEEK #3 Looking at games where Vegas missed by more than 2 TD’s and the total went over or under by 21+ points Arizona covered over UTEP by 21.5 points. UTEP had a ton of injuries I would look to fade Arizona if they get some inflated lines. Looks like they are 3 point under dogs against Utah for Friday night. UCLA vs. Memphis went over the total by 22 points. There could be some value on unders with both of these teams moving forward. Oklahoma State covered by 27.5 points over Pitt. This was a premium play of ours that we gave out and we were just flat out wrong as Oklahoma State averaged 9.39 yards per play. Pat Narduzzi’s defense had nothing left following the Penn State game. West Virginia […]
Read more..College Football Week 2 Guaranteed week 3 Free $49.99 USDWeek 2 Guaranteed or $$ BAck $64.99 USDWeek 2/3 Guaranteed or Week 4 Free $99.99 USD ***WHAT’S ON TAP FOR WEEK #2 W/ FREDDY WILLS – #1 CFB Career Profit Leader*** Freddy Wills heated up going 5-1 ATS on Saturday & Sunday. Check out his records table for archived analysis! Big Ten – Backing a Team I have won 66.7% ATS in my 9 year career SEC Gow – Backing a Team I have won 64.7% ATS in my career Total of the Week – 56.25% ATS in 9 Seasons Career on Totals! MAX Rated POD – 80-55 ATS L135 College Football MAX Rated PODs! Teaser of the Week – Career 60% ATS – **25-13 Since 2013! 30-15 ATS That’S 66.7% ATS! Career Saturday Week #2 Record! How to get your picks? After you make your purchase it is easy to receive your picks from Freddy Wills. 1. Login with your email, facebook, or twitter account 2. Set up your profile to receive picks by text/email (for all future pick releases) 3. Any picks that are already released will be visible on www.freddywills.com
Read more..Miami OH vs. Marshall We had Miami Ohio at +8.5 on a teaser with Alabama and were lucky enough to get a cover. This was one of the biggest line moves after Miami Ohio was as much as a 3 point dog closed as a 4 point favorite in some places. The sharp movement was spot on as Miami Ohio had +10 first downs, +162 total yards, but still managed to lose the game. They allowed Kelon Davis to take two kickoff returns back for TD’s and a 72 yard interception return which was a 14 point swing in the 3rd quarter. Betting Take: Marshall is still on my list as one of the most improved teams for 2017, but they did not look very good against Miami Ohio and they have NC State this week. I am surprised by the 24 point spread and would lean towards Marshall, but I will definitely pass. Miami Ohio is still on my list of teams to bet on in the MAC. Their defense clearly proved they are the best in the conference and we will continue to get value on them after they lost this game. They’ll play Austin Peay this week […]
Read more..Last week our premium newsletter gave out a premium College Football Picks Against The Spread play (info clients pay for) on Nevada +24 an easy cover over Northwestern. Newsletter plays go out on Thursday’s so if you subscribed after you likely missed the play! Nevada actually had a 17-7 lead at half time as we cruised to an easy cover! Along with my premium newsletter I have a week #2 promotion that you can find by going to freddywills.com/promo under recent articles. I also have it linked in the show notes. It’s worth mentioning that I have a 30-15 ATS record over my career that’s 67% winners ATS on Saturday’s week2! Ohio State vs. Indiana – 21 Ohio State covered I felt like our play on Indiana was on spot. They clearly did not have the depth to stay with Ohio State. The one thing I learned from this match up was the fact that teams that play fast and both of these teams picked up the tempo. All that means is it’s easier for the favorite to cover the big spreads, because it’s like they are playing 5 quarters. It’s something I should have looked into a little more. […]
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Read more..Turnovers are certainly something you can handicap. Everyone knows that certain teams are more prone to turning the ball over based on a variety of factors such as poor offensive line play or poor QB decision making, poor receiver hands or even a lack of hustle or just luck. Sometimes the ball does not bounce your way and that was the case after six weeks last year we bet on teams that had a 30% fumble recovery rate. To put that in perspective on how unlucky we were handicapping games. The 128th team in the nation last year was Purdue with a 28% recovery rate and #126 was Charlotte at 32%. What does it all mean? It’s hard to see the same thing happening in back to back years. At minimum we should revert back to the mean of 50%. Teams on my radar this year that had poor fumble recovery rates are, Oklahoma State, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Connecticut and Notre Dame all were under 40%. Phil Steele has a great article in his magazine that breaks this down even further and even takes a look at the luckiest teams in the nation from a year ago and hypothesizes […]
Read more..Last year I spoke about this and claimed ACC to be the best of the Power 5 and the Big Ten to be trending backward at least for one year based on experience. I used that all year to back ACC teams and Clemson on the way to a National Championship. This strategy won me a lot of big games last season, but lets take a look at how the ACC did against each Power 5 conference in detail: vs. Big Ten – 6-2, 5-3 ATS (including 3-1 in bowl games) vs. Big 12 – 1-1 SU & ATS vs. Pac 12 – 0-2, but 2-0 ATS (Stanford by 2 over UNC, and Oregon over Virginia) vs. SEC – 10-4 , 9-5 ATS Overall the ACC went 17-9 straight up and ATS against the POWER 5 Conferences. Last year I leaned on quality of coaches and the fact that the ACC had the most experienced conference from a lettermen perspective. Obviously there is not an exact science for picking the toughest conference and honestly it’s not something I’m really passionate about getting into. I lean on Phil Steele and if you don’t have his magazine you should. On page 33 […]
Read more..South Florida – Charlie Strong I saw a title out there from SBnation stating that “If Charlie Strong had this USF roster at Texas, he’d still be there.” Come on I mean really? USF plays in the American Athletic Conference not the Big 12. Even though I am not high on the Big 12 there is still a big jump in consistent competition between the two conference. Since 2013 when the conference started the AAC is 4-10 vs. the Big 12 getting outscored by an average of 17 points. Charlie Strong did a great job when he was playing in a conference where he was not overwhelmed. I think Strong was a bit out of his league in Texas. Strong has 16 starters back (9 on defense), and will have one of the best offenses in the country led by his senior QB Quinton Flowers, a dark horse for the Heisman. This team broke all kinds of school records last year on their way to averaging 43.8 ppg. I expect the same this year and I had them listed in my surprise teams as the schedule sets up really nicely for a possible 12-0 season! If Strong can get […]
Read more..Here is last year’s article – Top 10 College Football Head Coach Moves 2016 This year is in no particular order, but I am going to talk about the power 5 big coaching moves first. Baylor – Matt Rhule, coming over from Temple replaced Jim Grobe who stepped in just to settle the ship after the Baylor scandal. This team lost their entire recruiting class a year ago, and Rhule definitely gets a pass this year, but I’m not so sure he’s going to need it. This is a team that started 6-0 and went 0-6 to close the year out once their schedule got tougher, but lets talk about Rhule. Rhule is clearly a different style head coach compared to Art Briles. Actually there couldn’t be a more different style in comparison. Baylor was reliant on offense to win games. Rhule was not. Baylor operated with extreme tempo. Rhule did not. Temple was 86th, in pass % last year and I definitely think we will see a similar style in play from Rhule at Baylor. Betting Take – That means we won’t see as many high scoring games from Baylor. I think Baylor also because of the limit they […]
Read more..These teams won’t contend for a national title, but they will be in the mix for a New Year’s Day bowl game, and also on my list for betting value in key situations throughout the season. Ohio Bobcats – Out of the MAC we have Ohio with Frank Solich in his 13th year here. This team returns 13 starters, but should be in good position schedule wise to be in contention and get into the MAC title with a chance at winning it for the first time since 1968. As we all know from my previous podcasts I usually rate the MAC West over the MAC East and there is a lot of data that supports those claims over the years. This year though I think Ohio has a shot. They do draw Toledo out of the West, but this team has a deep stable of running backs behind an experienced offensive line that could put them in the title game. South Florida – Head coach Willie Taggart departs for Oregon and enter Charlie Strong (fired from Texas). So let’s just talk about Strong for a bit here, because I still do believe he is a good coach and that’s going […]
Read more..NCAAF POD Report College Football ROI Tool. $1199 for the season! Listen to the podcast to find out how you can get a major discount! These are teams you would not expect to be in the discussion for the college football playoff, but that’s exactly what I’m talking about here today. This also means each and one of these teams will have betting value this season, because nobody is considering them to be in the mix as a top 4 team at the end of the season. We have seen it in years past there is always a surprise by the end of the season, and last year it was Washington. While most people will be picking Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State, USC and or Oklahoma to be in the top 4 I’m giving a few teams that are big names and off the radar of most. #7 Kansas State Who doesn’t like HC Bill Snyder. The guy is a legend and I’m happy to see him back on my list. Snyder is a great coach for football and life. Just follow his 16 goals for success – commitment, unselfishness unity, improve, be tough, self discipline, great effort, enthusiasm, eliminate […]
Read more..Listen to the podcast or read the article below! I’m now entering my 9th year doing this professionally. I have had 7 of 8 profitable years with an average 47.55% return on investment per season. Last year we earned clients a 34.21% return on investment over the 5 months that is the college football season. Simply download a copy of my return on investment tool to predict your profit by visiting NCAAF POD Report College Football ROI Tool. $1199 for the season! Listen to the podcast to find out how you can get a major discount! #5 Jim Mora – UCLA Another great recruiter, but another bad coach. Many could argue it’s because of injuries, but you can’t simply give that excuse every year. UCLA ranks 13th in 5 year average recruiting rating but the results simply aren’t there and have been declining. His first 3 years he talied 29 wins, but the last 2 he had just 12 including a 4-8 season in 2016. Jim Mora opens with Texas A&M a crucial game in the hot seat scenario (stay tuned), the schedule is not easy and we will talk about it on our next podcast. Mora has the best […]
Read more..ACC Conference: Winning teams following a win of 21+ ATS, now on the road are 6-3 ATS. No leans this week Winning teams following a win of 21+ ATS, now at home are 6-3 ATS. No leans this week Winning teams following a loss of 7 + ATS, now back on the road are 15-4 ATS. There are two teams we would be looking to back given this situation. Louisville -25 – They just lost ATS by 25 or 25 points, now they go on the road to face Boston College as a 25 point favorite. They definitely need to show the committee why they deserve a shot at the college football playoff so I despite they show their greatest effort much like Clemson did in their weekday road game at Boston College. Losing teams following a win of 7+ ATS, now back on the road are 9-13 ATS Syracuse won ATS last time out and are now on the road against Clemson, I would actually lean towards taking Syracuse given that Clemson is off a huge game against Florida State. Clemson is going to have to score into the 50’s to cover this number. Virginia won ATS and is now on the […]
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