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PAC 12 Betting Value Week 10 Update


November 1, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

This article is an update from our previous posted PAC 12 Betting Value based on MOV posted in early October. WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS: Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home – 17-19 ATS since 2015 2015 – These teams went 10-12 ATS including 4-6 ATS following a 21+ win ATS. 2016 – This year it’s been a bit different as these teams are 7-6 ATS and 1-3 ATS following a 21+ win ATS. Week #10 Tracking– Stanford -14.5 at home vs. Oregon STate Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS now on the road – 10-10 college football against the spread since 2015 2015 – These teams went 6-7 ATS with a 1-0 record following a 21+ point ATS victory 2016 – These teams are 4-3 ATS with a 1-1 record following a 21+ point ATS victory Week #10 Tracking – Nothing Winning teams following a loss of 7+ ATS now at home – 8-4 ATS since 2015 2015 – These teams went 6-2 ATS with a 1-0 ATS record following a 21+ point ATS loss 2016 – These teams went 2-2 ATS so far with a 1-1 ATS record following 21+ Week #10 Tracking – Washington State -17 vs. Arizona  Winning teams following a […]

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AAC Conference Betting Value Update Week 10


November 1, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

This article is an update on our previous podcast where we went over some betting value spots in the AAC WINNING TEAMS FOLLOWING A WIN ATS OF 10 OR MORE POINTS RETURNING HOME – 17-6 ATS since 2015 Back Tulsa -8 GOING ON THE ROAD – 15-10 ATS since 2014 (5-2 21+) Back Temple -10 at Uconn LOSING TEAMS FOLLOWING A WIN ATS OF 10 OR MORE POINTS RETURNING HOME – 3-7 ATS since 2015   GOING ON THE ROAD – 7-3 ATS since 2015 Back East Carolina +8 at Tulsa (We also have Tulsa as a lean so we will not be playing this one) However losing teams following a win or loss of 21+ ATS are now 3-8 ATS since 2015 so if anything we would fade East Carolina   WINNING TEAMS FOLLOWING A LOSS ATS OF 10+ ATS RETURNING HOME – 7-4 ATS since 2015 GOING ON THE ROAD – 5-2 ATS since 2015 Back Memphis -3 at SMU LOSING TEAMS FOLLOWING A LOSS ATS OF 10+ RETURNING HOME – 5-9 ATS Fade Uconn vs. Temple after they L ATS by 30 Fade Cincinnati vs. BYU after they L ATS  by double digits now at home vs […]

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MAC Betting Odds Value Update Week 10


November 1, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Not a lot has changed since we did our MAC Conference Betting Value last week, but there are plenty of games in action to be tracking this week and this is the time of year where #MACTION takes over during the week and now we get football every day from now until after Thanksgiving! All trends we are tracking are since the 2015 season.  The interesting thing about the MAC this year is that there are a lot of bad teams and then there is Western Michigan. Winning teams following a win 10+ ATS – NOW AT HOME Are 13-12 ATS but 4-7 ATS following 21+. We are tracking – Ohio who returns home against Buffalo as 20 point favorite following a win ATS of 20 points. Winning teams following a win 10+ ATS  – NOW ON THE ROAD Are 7-2 ATS – including 3-0 ATS following a win of 21+.  Nothing to track here. Winning teams following a loss 10+ – NOW AT HOME These teams are 3-3 ATS, and 1-2 following a 21+ loss. Tracking – Akron +9.5 following a 40.5 loss ATS vs. Buffalo as they host Toledo Wednesday. Winning Teams following a loss 10+ NOW ON THE ROAD Are […]

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#CollegeFootball Quote of the Week


October 24, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

The amazing Bear Bryant knows what it takes!  Check out this week’s promo at www.sportsbetcapping.com/promo enter password bear

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MAC Conference Betting Value for #MACTION


October 24, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

We have done this article for many conferences and we have been able to find some betting value in the market based on public perception off big wins and losses against the spread.  We are looking at winning and losing teams and how they do after a double digit loss or win against the spread.  This is where Vegas is off by 10 points or more and we are tracking what those teams do the following week.  We have even split it up between winning and losing teams.  The teams I consider losers for this season based on their record and remaining schedule are Miami Ohio, Kent State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, and Northern Illinois. It is also worth noting when looking at the MAC Conference that the MAC West is far superior straight up and ATS vs. the MAC East.  I will post some trends later in the week on this, but I know when handicapping in the past the MAC West has been dominant which should not be surprising when you take a look at the teams and the talent in the MAC West. Winning Teams following a 10+ point WIN ATS Returning Home – These teams are 13-11 ATS […]

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American Athletic Conference – College Football Betting Value Podcast


October 18, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

WEEK #8 PROMO: www.sportsbetcapping.com/promo  password to access will be college  all lower case. An option to get all of my college and NFL picks this week guaranteed or $$ Back + next week FREE!  It’s well worth it just for my max rating plays which just continue to win! Also, I’m offering a $50 cash back bonus on Kyle Hunter’s College Football subscription – You must be a new customer on the sportscapping network.  Contact me before purchasing to make sure you are a new customer.  Kyle is the best handicapper for college football totals!  I believe combining his total plays with my spread plays is your best value!  Kyle Hunter is 26-8 in his last 34 college football totals plays. He’s 57.4% on all college football plays in the past 7 years (over 600 plays) Or you get his free picks newsletter at http://huntersportspicks.com  (31-12 last 43 free picks sent to newsletter subscribers) and follow or message me on twitter. AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE WINNING TEAMS FOLLOWING A WIN ATS OF 10 OR MORE POINTS RETURNING HOME Those teams are 15-6 ATS overall coming off a win of 10+ ATS now at home and we have a few teams in that situation […]

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Appalachian State vs. Louisiana Lafayette Preview & No Action


October 12, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

This game has a lot going on in it after both teams have not played since October 1st.  The college football odds in this game are 10 points to the home team and the total is 48.5.  To be honest I lean towards the over because of the pace of the Rajin Cajuns.  I also originally leaned towards Lafayette, but after looking at this game deeper it’s a definite pass for me. The running game is the key… One of the first things I like to look at always is what teams do int he running game to control the game.  Both of these times enjoy running first and have more success winning when they are able to effectively run the ball. Lafayette comes into this game running the ball 56% of the time while Appalachian State run the ball 64.48% of the time.  In wins Laf. averages 6.26 yards per carry, but in losses they averaged 2.78.  They have an elite running back in Elijah Mcguire who is averaging 5.17 yards per carry and Appalachian State has Marcus Cox who has been hurt and likely won’t play in this game. Appalachian State’s Run Defense (67th allowing 4.3 YPC) They are […]

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Friday Morning Commute Betting Podcast w/ 3 Premium Picks


October 6, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

This is a Special podcast tonight for your Friday commute as I give out three picks that I am putting my own money on this weekend!  Including my teaser of the week which has gone 20-6 since the 2014 season on college football against the spread picks! I also want to recap the first 5 weeks really quickly, because I know for a fact people are looking to profit and get rich quick in this business.  I have always been up front with my records and history.  I’ve never claimed to be a 70% ATS winner that’s impossible.  All I have done is win 56% ATS over the long term and win big on my big plays at a 63% clip which is hard to find someone that can do that. With that said this season has been extremely frustrating as I am now 24-24 with a net loss of 3.7 units, but looking back on the first 5 weeks I am extremely confident moving forward.  We got a win on Wednesday night with Arkansas State despite -5 TO’s, and we have a key play pending as I do this podcast. Before we get to the premium plays and week […]

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Protected: weeksixpicks


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

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Week 6 News & Promo


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Overall it’s been a very frustrating start to the season, but again betting on sports is a marathon and I know far too many people that give up on handicappers after a week or people who try to time it with handicappers after a hot streak.  It just does not work that way.  With that said my records are very transparent over at freddywills.com  as I do not try to mislead anyone.  Here are the facts: I’m 1-3 ATS in my premium picks newsletter, I’m 5-1 ATS on my complimentary plays. I’m 3-2 on max rating POD’s, 3-1 ATS on Teasers – NCAAF POD Report I’m 23-24-1 ATS overall and -5.7% of my bank roll.  You can check this out in my College Football ROI Tool. If you don’t believe me make sure you check the long term reports on our college football leaderboard or simply choose some of our other top handicappers to follow! WEEK 6 PROMO: Keeping it extremely simple this week.  Get all of my picks that includes my Teaser of the Week (already available) 24-6 ATS L2 Season, My signature MAX Rating POD – 80-47 ATS in my career! $34.99 GUARANTEED PROFIT OR YOUR $$ BACK + […]

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PAC 12 Betting Value & MOV Against The Spread Analysis


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

The PAC 12 is full of variance these days.  It seems like on any given Saturday any team can pull the upset.  Although right now Washington seems to be the best team in the conference after a 30+ win form a College football against the spread perspective as they simply dominated Stanford from start to finish.  It was the most impressive win of the weekend and it was the only game on TV at the time on Friday night.  Bettors will definitely remember that moment.  I’m not sure how I feel about Washington at the moment, but let’s break down the following scenarios. WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS: Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home 2015 – These teams went 10-12 ATS including 4-6 ATS following a 21+ win ATS. 2016 – This year it’s been a bit different as these teams are 5-1 ATS and 1-0 ATS following a 21+ win ATS. Week #6 Action – USC won by 11 ATS now at home vs. Colorado as a 5 point favorite. Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS now on the road  2015 – These teams went 6-7 ATS with a 1-0 record following a 21+ point ATS victory 2016 […]

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SEC Betting Value Recap & Week 6 Leans


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

The SEC saw our play of the day cash from  college football against the spread perspective.  It was certainly not an easy win as we covered on our podcast Monday night.  It was a game full of emotions, but overall it was a sign that our luck may be turning around. Other highlights were LSU dominating in their first game after firing Les Miles.  Overall the college football odds were pretty damn accurate in the SEC in week #5.  Just 2 games were off by more than a TD against the spread. SEC Conference: Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS, returning home are just 7-12 ATS overall, and 2-5 ATS following a 21+ point victory ATS.  The lean a week ago was to fade Ole Miss.  I actually backed Ole Miss in the scenario for various reasons check out my archived analysis.  No leans for week #6. Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS, going back on the road are 12-5 ATS overall, including 3-0 ATS following a 21+ point victory ATS.  There are 2 teams to back in week #6.  Following big wins Auburn and LSU head onto the road as small favorites.  LSU -2.5  against […]

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Big Ten Betting Value Update Week #6


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

From a College football against the spread perspective the Big Ten betting value leans did not do well in week #5 going 1-3-1 ATS.  We saw Michigan State choke one away on the road at Indiana.  Iowa lose again, it was a nice ride Iowa.  Ohio State looking like Ohio State against a banged up Rutgers team, getting an easy win and cover.  Maryland flexed their muscles against a bad Purdue team winning 50-7.  Michigan beat Wisconsin in a bit of a snoozer 14-7, but Wisconsin had plenty of chances in this one.  WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS: Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home were just 8-14 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season.  That includes a 4-4 ATS mark in 2016.  Week #5 leans went 1-1 as Wisconsin covered, but Rutgers did not.  Week #6 Leans –  Ohio State got a 20 point cover and returns home to face Indiana as a 29 point favorite.  Lean – Indiana +29. Winning teams following a loss of 7+ ATS now on the road are 6-4-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season.  This scenario does make sense as a team following a big loss would typically be undervalued the next week.  Week #6 Lean – Iowa […]

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ACC Betting Value Update Week #6


October 4, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

The ACC is stacked with some really good teams, and we saw some really exciting games in week five.  Clemson vs. Louisville was one of the better games of the year and if you missed the Florida State vs.North Carolina game, you missed a good one.  Florida State’s defense now has given up 36 plays of 20+ yards.  It’s really surprising how much they have missed their leader Derwyn James.  They have a big game as a road dog against Miami, another ACC team flying under the radar with Mark Richt leading the way, but are people jumping on the Miami bandwagon too soon?  Miami is a 3 point favorite this week against Florida State.  It may be a pass for me as far as ncaaf picks go, but let’s take a quick look around the conference in terms of what we are tracking.  ACC Conference: We gave more leans out on this conference last week and they went 2-1 ATS, now 7-2 ATS on leans in the ACC. Winning teams following a win of 21+ ATS, now on the road are 5-1 ATS.  Miami got a nice win over Georgia Tech as a road favorite a week ago.  There […]

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winning


September 27, 2016 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Get all of my NCAAF PICKS this weekend for Just $24.99 GUARANTEED OR $$ BACK + WEEK 6 FREE

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