The ACC is stacked with some really good teams, and we saw some really exciting games in week five. Clemson vs. Louisville was one of the better games of the year and if you missed the Florida State vs.North Carolina game, you missed a good one. Florida State’s defense now has given up 36 plays of 20+ yards. It’s really surprising how much they have missed their leader Derwyn James. They have a big game as a road dog against Miami, another ACC team flying under the radar with Mark Richt leading the way, but are people jumping on the Miami bandwagon too soon? Miami is a 3 point favorite this week against Florida State. It may be a pass for me as far as ncaaf picks go, but let’s take a quick look around the conference in terms of what we are tracking. ACC Conference: We gave more leans out on this conference last week and they went 2-1 ATS, now 7-2 ATS on leans in the ACC. Winning teams following a win of 21+ ATS, now on the road are 5-1 ATS. Miami got a nice win over Georgia Tech as a road favorite a week ago. There […]
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Read more..In week 3 we broke down the SEC, and our leans went 5-1 ATS. Week 4 we broke down the ACC, and again the leans we gave out went 5-1 ATS. Today we break down the Big Ten conference in terms of margin of victory against the spread. We take a look at all teams in the Big Ten and see what kind of mistakes Vegas makes the week following a big win ATS. I personally did not have any College football against the spread in week #4 on any Big Ten teams which is typically one of the better conferences for me. WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS: Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home were just 7-13 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season. That includes a 3-3 ATS mark in 2016. Week #5 leans – Fade Michigan -11.5 off a huge win ATS last week and are home for the 5th game in a row hosing Wisconsin, A team still flying a bit under the radar. Also fade Ohio State-38.5. I mean I would not be psyched to fade Urban Meyer off a bye especially with only Indiana on deck for the Buckeyes. It’s a no play for […]
Read more..In week 3 we broke down the SEC, and our leans went 5-1 ATS. This week we give you a full recap around the SEC as far as betting value is considered. I think there were several misleading finals including our POD pick on Arkansas and Tennessee looked a hell of a lot better in their game as we backed them in our teaser. We are now 24-5 since 2014 on teasers and all 6 of our recommended selections have actually won from a college football against the spread perspective. SEC Conference: Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS, returning home are just 6-12 ATS overall, and 1-5 ATS following a 21+ point victory ATS. Week #5 Lean – Fade Ole Miss and take a look at Memphis +14. Ole Miss got a huge victory last week against Georgia as a 7 point favorite winning 45-14. That final was a bit misleading and the idea is that Ole Miss line would be inflated this week. If you look at the box score this game was not as lopsided as the final score indicates. I probably won’t play this considering Memphis also off a huge victory of 77-3 over Bowling Green. […]
Read more..In week 3 we broke down the SEC, and our leans went 5-1 ATS for college football picks. Week 4 we broke down the ACC, and again the leans we gave out went 5-1 ATS. We will continue to update you on how we do from conference to conference. I would say the biggest stories out of the ACC for week #4 was Florida State’s offense looking so good. Clemson looking like Clemson and Louisville dominating again in a crazy line move of over 14 points from where it opened at 17. Here is a look at some of the value propositions we are keeping track of as well as leans for week #5 for college football bettors. ACC Conference: As I mentioned we broke down this conference a week ago and gave out leans on our podcast. The leans went 5-1 ATS and we have more for you in week #5. Winning teams following a win of 21+ ATS, now on the road are 4-1 ATS. Louisville was a win last week at Marshall. Week #5 leans – Miami -7 at Georgia Tech as Miami comes off a win of 21+ and is now on the road also following a bye […]
Read more..Get This weekend’s play for Just $26.97 GUARANTEED OR $$ BACK + WEEK 5 FREE ***WHAT’S ON DECK FOR WEEK #4 FOR #1 CAREER LEADER FOR CFB!*** MAX Rated POD – 79-46 ATS (63.2%) on my TOP RATED PLAYS! – 15-7 ATS Career Backing This Team! TEASER OF THE WEEK – 2-0 THIS YEAR & 23-5 SINCE 2014! TOTAL OF THE WEEK – 57% ATS CAREER 71% CAREER BACKING 1 TEAM! 42-28 ATS Career in Week 4 *Games involved: Florida State / South Florida , Florida / Tennessee, Oklahoma State / Baylor, Arkon /App State, VAnderbilt / Western Kentucky / Arkansas / Texas A&M, LSU/Auburn! Contact me – fw@freddywills.com / Twitter @freddywills / Subscribe on ITUNES / www.freddywills.com / Freddy’s College Football ROI Tool Other Links: Free College Football Picks – From 100+ handicapper / Buy Premium Sports Picks Tonight / Check our handicapper leaderboard
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Read more..We broke down Betting Value: SEC Conference Following Big Losses or Wins ATS last week and teams we mentioned were leans by fading or backing them actually went 5-1 ATS in week #3! Stay tuned for more SEC betting value in future podcasts. Today we are breaking down the ACC in the same way. Teams with a winning record following a WIN ATS of 7+ points At HOME these teams have had success the last 2 seasons and early in 2016. 2014 -11-5 ATS (5-0 ATS – following a win ATS of 21+) 2015 – 4-7 ATS (2-2 ATS – following a win ATS of 21+) 2016 – 2-1 ATS Takeaway: 17-13 ATS total with 7-2 ATS record following a 21+ ATS victory. Teams falling into this situation for week 4 – Georgia Teach & Virginia Tech both had wins of 21+ ATS last week. On the ROAD these teams have been .500, but following a win ATS of 21+ they have gone 3-1 ATS. 2014 – 5-4 ATS (1-0 ATS – following a win ATS of 21+) 2015 – 5-6 ATS (2-1 ATS – following a win ATS of 21+) 2016 – 1-1 ATS Teams falling into this situation for week 4 – Louisville & Miami both had wins […]
Read more..Follow up to last week’s show on the SEC, and betting value. If you didn’t get a chance to listen go back, because you can use it for future weeks ahead. So we said fade: Tennessee – WIN Arkansas – LOSS AUBURN – WIN GEORGIA – WIN VANDERBILT – WIN KENTUCKY – WIN Stay tune to our show later this week as we tell you who to look at fading or backing for week #4! We will also be looking at the ACC Conference for this very SAME SYSTEM for betting value and College football picks against the spread Now let’s get into how I did on my actual plays given out to clients. Many of you were on these and aside from my teaser of the week and my big play of the day it was a very unfortunate week going 5-5 -2.5 units. My first losing week 3 in my history. The good news is we had some bad luck, and that always tends to turn itself around and I have also dominated week #4. 5 of 7 winning weeks for week #4 with a combined 42-27 ATS record good for 60.8% ATS winners and a profit of $44,558 […]
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Read more..The SEC in 2015 following an ATS win or LOSS ATS by more than 7 points. I look at this to see what kind of adjustments the oddsmaker’s will make in the college football odds the following week. Are they under valuing teams or inflating numbers for teams based on public perception? Why opinion is they have and always have done this and it may not be more true than in the SEC, a conference that the media loves to hype up. Let’s get right to it. Following a Win of 7+ points ATS (Winning Teams) I think it’s important to look at winning vs. losing teams to narrow down our advantage. Teams with a winning record who won the week before ATS by more than 7 points and were returning home to play were just 4-10 ATS on the year, and 1-5 ATS when they won ATS by 21 or more points the week before. Week 3 Teams: Here are a few teams to consider based on this statistic. Fade Florida Gators -36 (vs. North Texas), Fade Tennessee -27.5 (vs. Ohio), Fade Arkansas -31 (vs. Texas State), Teams with a winning record who won the week before ATS by […]
Read more..College Football Betting Podcast – Misleading Final Scores Week 2 & Public Perception
Make sure you REGISTER to enjoy free picks on our website! SPECIAL DEAL – www.sportsbetcapping.com/promo – All my picks for week 3 – $34.99 – money back guarantee + week 4 free. I have a 5 to 1 under dog ready for you! Today we are breaking down some misleading scores from week 2 and how they impact public perception for week 3 and where you can find some value. Yesterday’s podcast we did a recap of my week 2 betting which did not go as plan, but overall we had some bad luck, and I am really confident we are going to rebound nicely in week 3. Today we are breaking down some misleading scores from week 2 and how they impact public perception for week 3 and where you can find some value. Yesterday’s podcast we did a recap of my week 2 betting which did not go as plan, but overall we had some bad luck, and I am really confident we are going to rebound nicely in week 3. As I mentioned I have bounced back 25 out of 41 times following a losing week in my career. Overall we have had 59 winning weeks in college football. […]
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Read more..SPECIAL DEAL – www.sportsbetcapping.com/promo – All my picks for week 2 – $34.99 – money back guarantee + week 3 free. I have a 5 to 1 under dog ready for you! Today we are going to break down some of my plays from week 2. We went 3-5 ATS and lost 3.8 units, but it was not all bad as we had a winning Saturday and hit on our max rated POD (now 78-46ATS carer), and teaser of the week (22-5 last 2 season) Contact me – fw@freddywills.com / Twitter @freddywills / Subscribe on ITUNES / www.freddywills.com / Freddy’s College Football ROI Tool Other Links: Free College Football Picks – From 100+ handicapper / Buy Premium Sports Picks Tonight / Check our handicapper leaderboard
Read more..Not a strong start to week 2, but we certainly finished strong. SYRACUSE +14.5 vs. LOUISVILLE (LOSS): Wow, the final score and box score are not really indicative of what this game looked like. There are several takeaways, and I’m sure I will touch on this later in the week on my podcast about line value for week 3. Lamar Jackson was insane in this game, throwing for more than 400 yards, and rushing for 199 with 5 total TD’s. What’s hidden in this game is his poor accuracy as he completed just 20 of his 39 passes. Louisville gave Syracuse so many opportunities to take the momentum and run with it, and I was very disappointing in Syracuse offense. They ran a ton of plays, but there were many 3 and outs along the way. This was 35-21 at the half, and 42-28 to start the 4th quarter before Louisville scored 20 straight to close the game. There were plenty of opportunities for Syracuse to cover this game, but they just could not establish that rhythm that this offense needs to. I do think the hype train for Lamar Jackson will end this week against Florida State. I think […]
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