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#Navy vs. #BYU premium play - College Football Group of 5 New Coaches and Betting Value Podcast -When we look at the coaching changes in college football we are always looking towards what gives us betting value. In today’s article we look at the non-power 5 coaching moves and a deep dive into what coaches do ATS over their first 3 seasons. We have a total of 13 new head coaches across the group of 5 teams, and gives us a lot to look at first year one. 1st Year Head Coach – ATS Over the last 4 seasons first year head coaches have gone 273-281 ATS, but 160-139 as an underdog which equates to just 53.5% ATS. Not a significant advantage, but enough to use it as a lean. I thought this was interesting since first year coaches in the Power 5 have a losing record ATS As a dog. It does make logical sense, because at the G5 level there is less competition so you should be able to lift your program up a bit faster than you would if you were a Power 5 head coach. You always have to factor in other things going on around a program, but we will get to some situational spots for a few teams on the list […]
Season Total Wins O/U 7.5 TCU – Big 12 Conference -Check out this college football team total in the Big 12. I am coming off another winning season in college football making it 8 of 10, and when combined with NFL we had a +56% return on investment. Over the 10 seasons handicapping college football, clients have earned an average yearly ROI of 34.18%. Looking forward to another great year. Invest in one of my early bird season packages now @ freddywills.com TCU Over 7.5 Wins +110 1% Play Gary Patterson is in his 19th year at TCU, and is coming off a season that featured a ton of injuries to the offense and defense, and they still finished 7-6 despite struggles from the offense, which were due to QB issues, and injuries to the offensive line, top QB, and WR. I think this TCU offense will be among the most improved offenses this year. The QB situation right now is a competition between Alex Delton (transfer from Kansas State), and highly touted freshman Max Duggan. I don’t think Patterson makes the mistake starting a freshman again after last years’ experience. TCU will have elite speed on the field, and WR Jalen Reagor could be the best player in this conference. […]
2019 Power 5 Coaching Changes -Grab my season pass on the home page of freddywills.com. I have 8 of 10 winning seasons in college football with an average ROI in 10 seasons of 34.18. $1,000/unit bettors have profited $341K in 10 total seasons. Need a sportsbook this season? Take advantage of bonuses from Betonline, the sportsbook I use. They are currently offering a 100% crypto bonus. 2019 Power 5 Coaching Changes In 2018 we had big coaching changes in Power Five College Football with programs like Florida, Florida State, Texas A&M and Nebraska getting new coaches. All of those coaches return for year #2, and we will talk about what that means from a betting perspective later. In 2019 we have a lot of new coaches again with a total of 11 in the Power Five conferences including big programs like Miami and Ohio State. Let’s break down each of the new 11 coaches, and then we will talk about how first year head coaches do in their first year against the spread, as well as second year, and third year head coaches with some big opportunities to pick double digit dogs for outright upsets. Ryan Day – Day will have to replace Urban Meyer, […]
Freddy Wills Released Picks • DOG OF THE WEEK -This post was originally published on this siteFreddy Wills’s Comments Freddy Wills’s Pick Washington +123 2% ML Dog Play You could wait to see a 3 or risk playing this in live betting, but I like the value we get with the Huskies here. Auburn lost their top two RB, and they have a rebuilt offensive line. Their strength is QB Jarret Stidham and his receivers, but that falls into the strength of the Washington Huskies. Washington arguably has the best secondary in the nation as their defense returns 9 total starters. Jarret Stidham however has struggled against good defenses. He threw for just 79 yards in a loss to Clemson, 145 yards in a loss to Georgia, and 165 yards in a loss to LSU. This is going to be a low scoring game in my opinion, but I like Washington to avoid the mistakes, and Auburn loses in Georgia for the third time in a row. Chris Peterson is notorious from coming all this way to open up a season against an opponent that is supposed to be better and winning. I think we will see better QB play from Jake Browning this year and this is his […]
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FreddyWills.com Newsletter Tracker -**INTEGRITY MATTERS** – View Documented Records All of Freddy Wills free & premium sports picks that are released to clients are viewable to the public one minute after each game starts! They are also archived FOREVER w/ a time stamp in our documented records table. How many handicappers do this? The objective of this article is to track all plays from Freddy that you can get for free between the weekly free play I give out on the website, and the premium play I give out in my newsletter. SUBSCRIBE NOW to receive sports pick alerts by text message or email. 2018-19 Newsletter Plays Free Picks 2018-19 Week #1 New Mexico State +4.5 2017-18 Season Review: If you subscribe to my weekly premium newsletter between those plays and my free plays you would have gone 20-11-1 ATS + $21,285.48 for $1,000 unit bettors! 2017-18 Newsletter Plays **9-6-1 ATS +$15,935.48** Newsletter Week #1 Nevada +24 (Archived Analysis) 2.2% – (WIN $2,000) Newsletter Week #2 Stanford +200 2.5%(LOSS -$2,500) Newsletter Week #3 – Baylor +14.5 2.2% (WIN – $2,000) Newsletter Week #4 – Nevada +28 3.3% (LOSS -$3,300) Newsletter Week #5 – Florida State -7.5 +100 3.5% (LOSS – $3,500) Newsletter Week #6 – Minnesota +4 2.2% play (LOSS -$2,200) Newsletter Week #7 – Texas +9 3.3% play (WIN $3,000) Newsletter Week #8 – Tulane […]
What Happens When You Fade College Football AP Top 25? -Here is a look at the top ten college football teams according to pre-season AP poll: The idea of fading these team’s because we are not getting good value in their numbers, because most people are going to back them is a good idea. You will definitely get the value side by fading these teams, but it may not always pan out and this is just part of the recipe. I dug a little deeper and went back over the last six years to see how the pre-season top 10 did overall. Season ATS 2012 – 56-71 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records) 2013 – 58-62 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records) 2014 – 64-71 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records) 2015 – 61-72 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records) 2016 – 66-63 ATS (4 out of 10 had winning ATS records) 2017 – 70-61 ATS (7 out of 10 had winning ATS records) Overall record was 375-400 ATS which is not a crazy advantage at 48.39%, actually it’s very close to the break even win % you need to show a profit if you blindly faded all […]
Top 10 College Basketball Handicappers -To gain access to these premium sports handicappers & college basketball leaders please REGISTER. You will also be able to access Free Picks page from over 90 professional handicappers which will include some of the free college basketball picks! This is the list of handicappers I would recommend you choose from for college basketball. They have a long history of success just like I do in college football and since I don’t concentrate on college basketball any more these are a few of the guys I follow. -Freddy Wills – Pro Handicapper freddywills.com
Top 10 NBA Handicappers -Top Basketball Handicappers -
TOP 10 Basketball Handicappers This group of handicappers combines their knowledge of NBA against the spread along with college basketball spread picks. These guys are very consistent and professional. If you are looking for action and a guaranteed profit picking any one of these guys is your best bet.
Vegas Mistakes – College Football Report Week 10 -Last week my favorite podcast leans went 6-2 ATS. Unfortunately only 4 made it onto my card and I went 2-2 ATS for those. We went 5-5 ATS and move to 48-52 ATS -36% ROI. Still confident we will show a profit by the end of the year. Last year from November 3rd on we had a 44.36% ROI to put things in perspective. Our Friday commute podcast was a dud again this week as we gave out Texas thinking Sam Ehlinger would play. He did not. However, we did pick a winner in our free play on Vanderbilt -10.5, and our premium pick newsletter play on West Virginia -3 was also a winner. So plays available to you last week went 2-1 ATS at no cost I think that’s the third week in a row we went 2-1 or better. So make sure you SUBSCRIBE at Freddywills.com. My end of year package has also been decreased down to $175and I’m guaranteeing 35% ROI or your $$ BACK! Also guaranteed 5% ROI package for week 11 only up on freddywills.com if you are interested in my NCAAF Predictions Iowa covered by 52 points ATS over Ohio State. What a crazy game […]
Vegas Mistakes Week 8 College Football Season -Vegas Mistakes Week #8 – 9 out of the 20 games were from the power 5. Proving that there is line value in both power 5 and non-power 5 conference. 57% of the mistakes we have tracked this season through week’s 2-7 have been from the power 5 conference. Missouri covered by 33 over Idaho. This was our Friday commute podcast play. Now 5-2 ATS on those plays this year! 4 of those wins have covered by 21+ points. Missouri simply dominated this game holding Idaho to 278 yards and 3.76 yards per play while Missouri had 658 yards an over 10 yards per play. Since Missouri’s bye they have looked awfully good in my opnion. Although this does not prove, anything and I would still look to fade them in conference play. They will face off against Uconn this week as 13 point road favorites. Uconn beat them 9-6 in Missouri in 2015 and are playing better themselves. Both teams won’t be looking ahead and are trying to get to a bowl game. Arkansas State covered by 32 over Louisiana Lafayette as they outgained them by 300 yards and over 3 yards per play. Arkansas State seems […]
19 Games Vegas Made Mistakes on College Football Week 7 -Recapping the season so far as I mentioned on twitter it has not been a good year for me, I have gone 33-37 ATS on the year -23.395% luckily NFL has been good as 12-9 ATS +8.691% and we have done well on our commute podcast going 5-1 ATS. Make sure you tune into that again on Friday as we have been giving some really easy winners. Last Frida we gave out Cal +15 and of course they won outright and covered the spread by 50 points! So let’s recap and give you out some value betting options for week #8. This week is as crazy as I can remember. 4 Top 10 teams go down and many other favorites. South Alabama +800 (road) Syracuse +1400 California +639 Boston College +720 (road) LSU +215 (Over #10 Auburn) Tulsa +470 FIU +435 Arizona State +750 Just for fun – $100 parlay would have cashed – $668 million dollars to put things in perspective. The same amount of games as week 5. We had 19 games where the oddsmaker’s were off by more than a TD on the spread. The most we have had was 22 in week #3. Let’s go over […]
College Football Week 5 Vegas Oddsmaker Mistakes -Miami covered the spread by 19.5 points against the spread over Duke. This was a 17-6 game for a long time and it looked like Duke was just one play away, but it never happened despire being just -60 total yards and having 24-19 in the first down advantage. This was a clearly misleading final and the two turnovers had something to do with it as well. Miami, definitely still has a lot to prove to me but they were +3.73 yards per play in this game. Duke was fortunate to run +27 plays in this game, but managed just 1.5 points per trip in Miami territory. Betting Take: Duke still has value moving forward and are going to be a tough opponent. They go on the road to face Virginia (off a bye and Boise win) in what should be a game many sharps fight over. Duke is a 2.5 point favorite and I suspect that line will move closer to a pk. Miami is making up their game against Florida State who did not look good last week at all. We gave it out as our Friday commute play and I hope many of you pushed. I had it […]
What Vegas doesn’t want you to know about from Week #4 -Promos – www.freddywills.com/week5 On today’s podcast we will talk about the biggest oddsmaker errors for week #4 and give you reasons to back 4 teams in our buy low sell high report which has gone 80% ATS the last two weeks. And if you are Just fading teams in week 4 that were able to cover by 14+ points against the spread in week 3 then you would have gone 11-5 ATS. You would have had to fade teams like Penn State, Clemson, Miss State, Oregon, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ake Forest, and more. If you did this in week 3 you would have gone 6-7 ATS with two teams carrying over this week because they had a bye in week 3 and those went 2-0 ATS. So overall the last two weeks 19-12 ATS fading teams that have are off a 14+ margin of victory over the spread. I’m not going to blindly back or fade these teams on today’s report. If anything this just teaches me discipline whenever I love a side and it just so happens to be a team that just covered the spread by a large margin. I’m going to think twice about it because I always […]
Vegas Biggest Mistakes Week #3 & Week 4 Impacts – College Football Betting -Visit www.freddywills.com/betonline for an exclusive bonus. You get a $25 risk free bet for signing up along with a 50% sign up bonus up to $2500. Contact Me – fw@freddywills.com/ Twitter @freddywills / Subscribe on ITUNES / http://www.freddywills.com / Freddy’s College Football ROI Tool Sportsbetcapping.com bring you 100+ professional handicappers: Sports Handicapper Leaderboard | Free College Football Picks – From 100+ handicapper / Buy Premium Sports Picks Tonight / Check sports betting against the stock market VEGAS MISTAKES WEEK #3 Looking at games where Vegas missed by more than 2 TD’s and the total went over or under by 21+ points Arizona covered over UTEP by 21.5 points. UTEP had a ton of injuries I would look to fade Arizona if they get some inflated lines. Looks like they are 3 point under dogs against Utah for Friday night. UCLA vs. Memphis went over the total by 22 points. There could be some value on unders with both of these teams moving forward. Oklahoma State covered by 27.5 points over Pitt. This was a premium play of ours that we gave out and we were just flat out wrong as Oklahoma State averaged 9.39 yards per play. Pat Narduzzi’s defense had nothing left following the Penn State game. West Virginia […]
week2promo -College Football Week 2 Guaranteed week 3 Free $49.99 USDWeek 2 Guaranteed or $$ BAck $64.99 USDWeek 2/3 Guaranteed or Week 4 Free $99.99 USD ***WHAT’S ON TAP FOR WEEK #2 W/ FREDDY WILLS – #1 CFB Career Profit Leader*** Freddy Wills heated up going 5-1 ATS on Saturday & Sunday. Check out his records table for archived analysis! Big Ten – Backing a Team I have won 66.7% ATS in my 9 year career SEC Gow – Backing a Team I have won 64.7% ATS in my career Total of the Week – 56.25% ATS in 9 Seasons Career on Totals! MAX Rated POD – 80-55 ATS L135 College Football MAX Rated PODs! Teaser of the Week – Career 60% ATS – **25-13 Since 2013! 30-15 ATS That’S 66.7% ATS! Career Saturday Week #2 Record! How to get your picks? After you make your purchase it is easy to receive your picks from Freddy Wills. 1. Login with your email, facebook, or twitter account 2. Set up your profile to receive picks by text/email (for all future pick releases) 3. Any picks that are already released will be visible on www.freddywills.com
College Football Betting Recap Week 1 Part 2 -Miami OH vs. Marshall We had Miami Ohio at +8.5 on a teaser with Alabama and were lucky enough to get a cover. This was one of the biggest line moves after Miami Ohio was as much as a 3 point dog closed as a 4 point favorite in some places. The sharp movement was spot on as Miami Ohio had +10 first downs, +162 total yards, but still managed to lose the game. They allowed Kelon Davis to take two kickoff returns back for TD’s and a 72 yard interception return which was a 14 point swing in the 3rd quarter. Betting Take: Marshall is still on my list as one of the most improved teams for 2017, but they did not look very good against Miami Ohio and they have NC State this week. I am surprised by the 24 point spread and would lean towards Marshall, but I will definitely pass. Miami Ohio is still on my list of teams to bet on in the MAC. Their defense clearly proved they are the best in the conference and we will continue to get value on them after they lost this game. They’ll play Austin Peay this week […]
College Football Week 1 Recap – Future Betting Advantages Part 1 of 2 -Last week our premium newsletter gave out a premium College Football Picks Against The Spread play (info clients pay for) on Nevada +24 an easy cover over Northwestern. Newsletter plays go out on Thursday’s so if you subscribed after you likely missed the play! Nevada actually had a 17-7 lead at half time as we cruised to an easy cover! Along with my premium newsletter I have a week #2 promotion that you can find by going to freddywills.com/promo under recent articles. I also have it linked in the show notes. It’s worth mentioning that I have a 30-15 ATS record over my career that’s 67% winners ATS on Saturday’s week2! Ohio State vs. Indiana – 21 Ohio State covered I felt like our play on Indiana was on spot. They clearly did not have the depth to stay with Ohio State. The one thing I learned from this match up was the fact that teams that play fast and both of these teams picked up the tempo. All that means is it’s easier for the favorite to cover the big spreads, because it’s like they are playing 5 quarters. It’s something I should have looked into a little more. […]
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Turnover Luck 2016 Converts to 2017 Success! -Turnovers are certainly something you can handicap. Everyone knows that certain teams are more prone to turning the ball over based on a variety of factors such as poor offensive line play or poor QB decision making, poor receiver hands or even a lack of hustle or just luck. Sometimes the ball does not bounce your way and that was the case after six weeks last year we bet on teams that had a 30% fumble recovery rate. To put that in perspective on how unlucky we were handicapping games. The 128th team in the nation last year was Purdue with a 28% recovery rate and #126 was Charlotte at 32%. What does it all mean? It’s hard to see the same thing happening in back to back years. At minimum we should revert back to the mean of 50%. Teams on my radar this year that had poor fumble recovery rates are, Oklahoma State, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Connecticut and Notre Dame all were under 40%. Phil Steele has a great article in his magazine that breaks this down even further and even takes a look at the luckiest teams in the nation from a year ago and hypothesizes […]
Toughest College Football Conference For 2017 -Last year I spoke about this and claimed ACC to be the best of the Power 5 and the Big Ten to be trending backward at least for one year based on experience. I used that all year to back ACC teams and Clemson on the way to a National Championship. This strategy won me a lot of big games last season, but lets take a look at how the ACC did against each Power 5 conference in detail: vs. Big Ten – 6-2, 5-3 ATS (including 3-1 in bowl games) vs. Big 12 – 1-1 SU & ATS vs. Pac 12 – 0-2, but 2-0 ATS (Stanford by 2 over UNC, and Oregon over Virginia) vs. SEC – 10-4 , 9-5 ATS Overall the ACC went 17-9 straight up and ATS against the POWER 5 Conferences. Last year I leaned on quality of coaches and the fact that the ACC had the most experienced conference from a lettermen perspective. Obviously there is not an exact science for picking the toughest conference and honestly it’s not something I’m really passionate about getting into. I lean on Phil Steele and if you don’t have his magazine you should. On page 33 […]
Top 5 Non Power Five Coaching Moves – 2017 -South Florida – Charlie Strong I saw a title out there from SBnation stating that “If Charlie Strong had this USF roster at Texas, he’d still be there.” Come on I mean really? USF plays in the American Athletic Conference not the Big 12. Even though I am not high on the Big 12 there is still a big jump in consistent competition between the two conference. Since 2013 when the conference started the AAC is 4-10 vs. the Big 12 getting outscored by an average of 17 points. Charlie Strong did a great job when he was playing in a conference where he was not overwhelmed. I think Strong was a bit out of his league in Texas. Strong has 16 starters back (9 on defense), and will have one of the best offenses in the country led by his senior QB Quinton Flowers, a dark horse for the Heisman. This team broke all kinds of school records last year on their way to averaging 43.8 ppg. I expect the same this year and I had them listed in my surprise teams as the schedule sets up really nicely for a possible 12-0 season! If Strong can get […]
