Follow up to last week’s show on the SEC, and betting value. If you didn’t get a chance to listen go back, because you can use it for future weeks ahead.
So we said fade:
- Tennessee – WIN
- Arkansas – LOSS
- AUBURN – WIN
- GEORGIA – WIN
- VANDERBILT – WIN
- KENTUCKY – WIN
Stay tune to our show later this week as we tell you who to look at fading or backing for week #4! We will also be looking at the ACC Conference for this very SAME SYSTEM for betting value and College football picks against the spread
Now let’s get into how I did on my actual plays given out to clients. Many of you were on these and aside from my teaser of the week and my big play of the day it was a very unfortunate week going 5-5 -2.5 units. My first losing week 3 in my history. The good news is we had some bad luck, and that always tends to turn itself around and I have also dominated week #4.
5 of 7 winning weeks for week #4 with a combined 42-27 ATS record good for 60.8% ATS winners and a profit of $44,558 for $100,000 clients!
As we look towards week 4 be aware of a few things. I am 79-46 ATS on my max rating plays (We cashed in on Michigan State on Saturday) That’s 63.2% ATS winners in my career on my largest rated play and we average roughly 1 7 of those per year. Also my teaser of the weeks have gone 23-5 the last two years, we are 2-0 this year and amazing all 4 teams we recommended in the teasers have covered the regular line.
WEEK 4’s Special – There will be more picks this week.
WWW.sportsbetcapping.com/promo – use password jackson
$39.99 – All of my picks for week 4 GUARANTEED or week 5 is FREE!
$49.99 – All of my picks for week 4 GUARANTEED or your $$ BACK + week 5 FREE!
$59.99 – All of my picks Week 4 + my NFL Picks (GUARANTEED or your $$ BACK + WEEK 6 FREE) – We did go 3-1 in NFL on Sunday!
I have also dropped the sale price of my season packages by more than $100 now that we are into week #4!
Cinci +8.5 3 out of 5
The final score was 40-16, and this will likely find its way into our misleading final score segment tomorrow with Kyle Hunter. Cinci had the lead 16-12 with 12 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Their 3 turnovers did not help, and Houston fumbled the ball 4 times and recovered 3 of them. One thing we learned from week 3 is that Houston may be over rated, considering what happened in this game, and how Oklahoma went down again. That win to open the season when they had all off season to prepare suddenly doesn’t look that great. Takeaway – Fade Houston.. There schedule looks pretty easy for a while with Texas State (on the road as a 34.5 point under dog. Texas State was a 32.5 point under dog at Arkansas this past week so I would say there is some line value there.
Baylor -31 2 out of 5
Jim Grobe is just too nice.. This is another game Baylor should have covered. They had an opportunity with 5 minutes to play and the ball 1st and goal on the 5. The offensive line got zero push to get in. That’s the second time this year that situation has happened to me. This was a spot I was honestly fading Rice on as I felt their QB was just that bad. I ripped him on last week’s show and I think I was spot on as Tyler Stehling finished 8/25 for 33 yards passing. Baylor was + 373 yards in this one, but the one issue was Rice decided they wanted to run the ball a ton 42 carries at 5.6 ypc.. That could be concerning for Baylor’s defense down the road. I’ll look t fade Baylor this week they open up as 9.5 point favorites to Oklahoma State.
Miami Hurricane -3.5 Free Play 1 out of 5
I really should have had more confidence in this play, but Appalachian State’s defense and toughness scared me away a little. 45-10 final was one of the bigger victories on Saturday as Miami covered the spread by 30.5 points! This was never close as Miami simply dominated at +308 yards with a balanced offensive attack. I’m excited for what Miami is capable of this year and the value we will get behind Mark Richt moving forward. They have a road game in 2 weeks at Georgia Tech ( we may look to fade them at)<, because they have FSU the week ahead.
Florida State -1 3 out of 5
I am having nightmares of Lamar Jackson. Truth be told Florida State is not as strong up front on offensive line or defensive line in my opinion. They did not cover the spread by 41 points making me look and feel pretty dumb early on Saturday. -264 total yards for Florida State as Deondre Francois looked terrible in in his first true road game. This is typical of Florida State starting slow on the road I thought the early game really was the killer for them. I think Vegas opening up Florida State as 3 point favorite at South Florida is very clear adjustment. The line jumped to 6.5 already. Louisville at Marshall is a 25 point favorite this week. At some point (and I don’t know when) I will be fading Marshall again. Florida State is an early candidate for a teaser play this week.
Syracuse +14.5 4 out of 5
Screw Dino Babers and is up tempo attack. The offense looked good early and they got off to a 17-0 lead so I was sitting pretty at +31.5 already walking to cash my ticket. This is something I have to learn to actually do, but never ever ever count your chickens before they hatch. I have to say this final score of 45-20 was pretty misleading considering Syracuse outgained South Florida by 95 yards. What really killed Syracuse in this one was the fact that they turned the ball over 3 times to South florida’s 0. There were 4 fumbles in this game and South Florida recovered every single one which is extremely fortunate. There was also an 83 yard punt return in the 4th quarter by South Florida that was a kick in the nuts. The one thing I will say is the fact that Syracuse had to play dual threat QB’s with excellent running games in back to back weeks. Now they get to play UCONN J as a 4 point under dog. That’s line value.. I may have to be a player on that one.
Virginia +10.5 / Virginia Tech pk 4 out of 5
This was an easy teaser combination. I was very high on the Hokies after their misleading loss to Tennessee in week 2, and Virginia against Uconn provided a ton of value and they should have won the game to be honest. Now we are 23-5 in our last 2 seasons on teasers including 2-0 this year. All 4 teams that we gave teaser lines on this year have covered the normal spread.
UTEP +4 3.3% 3 out of 5.
I misread Army for the second week in a row which really bothered me Saturday. I was so high on Army, in the off season and I would have benefited by going 3-0 ATS if I backed them these first three weeks. I thought their first win against Temple which we were on would have set them up for inflated lines, but this team showed me something at Texas this week the same week they lost a teammate to a car accident. Army is going to beat Navy this year there is no doubt in my mind!
Missouri +6.5 2 out of 5
This was not that confident of a play, but Missouri really should have won and were leading most of this game until the 20 yard TD pass which was beautiful by the way from Jacob Eason with less than 2 minutes to play. Missouri was +62 yards in this game, and they had 5 turnovers which is never a good thing. We will continue to find value on Missouri moving forward and there will be value in their over bets. Georgia this week is at Ole Miss as a 7.5 point dog. I think that’s a pretty sharp line.
Michigan State +8 MAX RATING POD 5 OUT 5
Now 79-46 ATS in my career on max rated POD’s in college football. 63.2% ATS on my top rated plays. I was a bit worried about this one I’m not going to lie, but only because the public was pounding Michigan State, but it didn’t matter they won outright as I thought they would. Mark Dantonio is a great coach as an under dog. They outgained Notre Dame by 100 yards in this one and really imposed their physical will on them. 52 rushes for 260 yards. Michigan State’s defense is very good again especially vs. the run where they held Notre Dame to 2.3 yards per carry. Notre Dame is extremely weak up front in my opinion on both sides of the ball. I mentioned in my analysis how Notre Dame struggles when they can’t run the ball. I will look to fade them when a similar situation comes up.. This season not looking great and Brian Kelly could be on the hot seat if they don’t start winning big games. Notre Dame always an inflated favorite is 20.5 point favorites this week vs. Duke, and Michigan State is hosting Wisconsin as a 6 point favorite (that line may be too high).
Wraps up today’s how stay tuned for the rest of this week’s podcasts.
I’ll have misleading final score segment with our friend Kyle Hunter, I will also talk about the ACC MOV ATS numbers much like we broke down the SEC last week. A lot of other good information to come including College Bowl Predictions
