Miami OH vs. Marshall
We had Miami Ohio at +8.5 on a teaser with Alabama and were lucky enough to get a cover. This was one of the biggest line moves after Miami Ohio was as much as a 3 point dog closed as a 4 point favorite in some places. The sharp movement was spot on as Miami Ohio had +10 first downs, +162 total yards, but still managed to lose the game. They allowed Kelon Davis to take two kickoff returns back for TD’s and a 72 yard interception return which was a 14 point swing in the 3rd quarter. Betting Take: Marshall is still on my list as one of the most improved teams for 2017, but they did not look very good against Miami Ohio and they have NC State this week. I am surprised by the 24 point spread and would lean towards Marshall, but I will definitely pass. Miami Ohio is still on my list of teams to bet on in the MAC. Their defense clearly proved they are the best in the conference and we will continue to get value on them after they lost this game. They’ll play Austin Peay this week so there is no line to take advantage of.
Liberty vs. Baylor
Baylor a 33 point favorite loses the game outright. They were outgained in the game and had -2 turnover ratio leading to the end result. Betting Take: We have seen this in the past with power 5 schools losing to FCS schools and we usually have betting value moving forward. The line for this weeks game against Texas San Antonio has already moved 6 points as others are thinking the same thing. Unless the line moves back under 14 I probably won’t touch it after I saw it open at 12.5 and is now over 17.
Howard vs. UNLV
The biggest upset in college football history and you weren’t on it?? I don’t really understand why or how UNLV was a 45 point favorite in this game, but they ran into an odd opponent in Howard who had Cam Newton’s little brother owning the show rushing for nearly 200 yards while passing for 140. UNLV still out gained Howard by over 100 yards. They turned the ball over 3 times and could not get off the field on third down which is no surprise with Caylin Newton at QB. Betting Take: I was actually high on UNLV coming into the season. I really like what Tony Sanchez has done here in recent years. He has 9 returning starters and the offense should be better than ever. I think they just ran into a tough opponent and with only 2 returning starters on defense things did not go their way. They also allowed a 75 yard fumble return, and struggled mightily in the red zone. This week’s game against Idaho would is going to be interesting you definitely have an inflated line with Idaho opening as an 8 point favorite.
Worth noting – If your book offers big money line dogs which many don’t you would have made 4.1 million on a $100 parlay.
Louisville vs. Purdue
Lamar Jackson looked better throwing the ball in this game than he did all year, but Louisville’s defense looked like they took a step back and so did Louisville’s rushing offense. Purdue +24.5 was a play we gave out in our premium pick newsletter (SUBSCRIBE ON FREDDYWILLS.COM) Purdue had them on the ropes and I think if David Blough was 100% healthy they might have won this game. Unfortunately Purdue turned the ball over 4 times which was something we thought they would improve on in 2017 under Jeff Brohm. Betting Take: Purdue is much improved and well coached. I was impressed with their front seven play holding Louisville to 4.4 ypc and even less when you take Lamar Jackson out of the mix. It was a nice win for our premium newsletter subscribers. Louisville goes on the road to face North Carolina as a 9.5 point favorite, but they are likely peaking ahead to their home game against Clemson. I don’t know after what I saw from North Carolina if I would fade Louisville, but it definitely makes an interesting spot. For Purdue I think they are going to give a lot of team’s trouble. They play Ohio this week as the line opened up at 2.5 and has already moved to 4.5.
Vanderbilt vs. Middle Tennessee
I had a few handicappers contact me about this game to get my perspective and I have to say I was not leaning towards the trendy side of this game. This line that opened up with Vanderbilt as a 6 point favorite went all the way down to 2.5 as many sharps were on Middle Tennessee. For me I passed and was happy I did. Middle Tennessee’s offense really struggled in this one with only 240 yards of total offense after they had 495 the year before in a misleading loss to Vanderbilt considering they outgained them by over 150 yards in 2016. Betting Take: Derek Mason has improved this team every year here going from -169 yards to -92, -27 ypg in conference play. This year he has 16 returning starters and his best offense. Although it didn’t show this past week. Vanderbilt takes on Alabama A&M this week, but they are a team I will circle for future games because I love their defense. I do think Middle Tennessee will rebound, but they have a tough one this week on the road against Syracuse as a 9.5 point dog after an emotional beat down against their instate rival. They have to be a bit hung over for this one.
Colorado vs. Colorado State
Another game that a lot of sharps were asking me my perspective on. It was a very popular play for sharps betting on Colorado State, but I couldn’t get over the week 1 game against Oregon State when they looked so good and Oregon State looked so bad. I felt Colorado had lost a ton, but when the line moved in Colorado’s advantage just like it did with Vanderbilt I almost came in late and took Colorado for line value. I’m glad I didn’t as Colorado State actually outgained Colorado, but were 0-3 on 4th down and had 10 penalties to go along with 3 turnovers. Betting Take: Colorado State could have value in future weeks, but this week they actually play an FCS school. Colorado meanwhile I feel is getting a bit too much credit and are 35.5 point favorites at home to Texas State.
FSU vs. Alabama
This game clearly did not live up to the hype. I had Bama as a -1 in a teaser that was a win. Now 63% ATS on teasers the last 4 seasons on teasers! In reality thought Alabama’s offense was less than impressive and they were lucky to cover the spread as they were only +19 yards. Special teams and 3 turnovers helped them to this victory. Betting Take: Deondre Francois was lost for the season towards the very end of this game. Moving forward I think there will be betting value on Florida State as the team rallies. Their defense looks legit and I was impressed with how they were able to hold Alabama to 24 points given the two blocked kicks and 3 turnovers. They play LA Monroe this week so it will be a good opportunity to look at their new QB. Alabama meanwhile will play host to Fresno State and you have to worry if there is a bit of a hangover maybe? They just saw Francois go down and you have to think that’s in the back of their mind. I’d lean towards Fresno this week as 45 point under dogs.
Texas A&M vs. UCLA
This was a huge game for both coaches and A&M came out on fire like they wanted this one more. I was happy about it considering I gave out A&M to clients as a premium play, but UCLA came firing back from 34 points down for the second largest comeback in college football history. I felt like this was a big coaching mistake by Kevin Sumlin as he was rotating QB’s as we knew he would, but he had Mond throwing way too much in my opinion after their big lead. Mond is more of a runner in my opinion but he was 3-17 throwing the ball. A&M averaged 6.1 yards per carry +3 in turnover margin and had a 44-10 lead and they lost the game behind a brilliant performance from Josh Rosen who just improved his draft stock with 35/59 491 yards 4TD’s and 0 interceptions. Betting Take: UCLA still can’t run the ball, A&M still has a very good pass rush, but it looks like they are in big trouble if they can’t runt eh ball in future match ups. Luckily both teams get breaks this week. I would say I’m not impressed with either team since their offenses are one dimensional, and both defenses have weaknesses that we clearly saw in this game.
Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
I passed on this game after my formulas pointed to Virginia Tech. There were just too many unknowns and I am glad I did considering the game was tied in the 4th quarter. Virginia Tech extremely lucky to come out of here with a win considering they allowed Will Grier to throw for 371 yards and West Virginia ran for 221 averaging 6.3 yards per carry. West Virginia is clearly a dangerous team moving forward. I thought Will Grier was a bit rusty early as I saw him miss a few throws. This was the most passing yards this decade that Virginia Tech’s defense gave up and they still managed to win the game and hold West Virginia to 24 points. Betting Take: I will look for spots to take West Virginia in the future. Unfortunately they are 24 point favorites this week against East Carolina. East Carolina lost to an FCS team so in all actuality there might be reasons to take East Carolina, but I believe 24 points on 597 yards for West Virginia is misleading on how good this offense is. I could easily see them throwing up 50+ points this week against East Carolina.
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