Cincinnati vs. Memphis
What a fun game to watch with the exception of the Bearcats 5 star QB taking a scary blow to the head while trying to slide and give himself up. (the player stayed in the game). Hayden Moore took over at QB and broke Cincinnati records throwing for 557 yards and 4TD’s. Memphis got the late win and continues to get the love and support they do deserve, but this defense is terrible. It’s only going to take running into one decent defense for the outcome to change. Outlook: They travel to play at South Florida potential look ahead spot with Ole Miss on deck (at home!). This is a Friday night game for South Florida and they are 9.5 point under dogs.
Stanford @ Oregon State
We were on this game with Oregon State + the number. Oregon State really started well and it was 21-17 at the half, but the second half Stanford stuck to their game plan, and Oregon State was just over matched. They could not stop the run. I will say that Oregon State’s offense was ahead of where I thought they were as Seth Collins appears to be the real deal. Oregon State’s defense is what I was betting on and they can tackle, but late in the game they just seemed to be worn down. Outlook: I’ll be back this team again at some point. Stanford will host Arizona this week after they got blasted by UCLA, and Oregon State will have the week off.
Bowling Green @ Purdue
I doubt anyone was dying for me to do a recap of this game, but it was my top play last Saturday now 6-3 ATS on the season 3-1 in the NFL. We should have covered this game and arguably won outright with Purdue. Purdue missed multiple easy field goals in this game. One was an extra point distance, the other with less than 2 minutes to play from the 15 yard line that would have put them up 3 points. Then Bowling Green with 9 seconds to play from the 12 yard line runs in for a 12 yard TD run to win by more than 5. 95% of the time you see a defense make that stop and Bowling Green kicks the field goal to win by 3 and we are having a different discussion. I will only back teams with capable kicking teams, although that is hard to say since the kicking game is very bad in college football right now unless you are Utah. Outlook: Purdue is an improved team whether you want to believe it or not. They seemed to have found a QB in Blough and are 22.5 point under dogs at Michigan State this week. Bowling Green on the road against Buffalo as a 9.5 point favorite against a Buffalo offense that continues to struggle.
BYU @ Michigan
Michigan looks a lot better and like a contender already. They lost week 1, but could have beaten Utah on the road. We all know what Utah did this past week. It’s hard to not get caught up in the hype at this point for Michigan after they beat a good BYU team 31-0. A BYU team that went on the road to play UCLA the week before and should have won, but lost 24-23. BYU did have a challenging schedule to start the season and maybe they were just worn down, and I don’t think I would touch the spread on a Michigan line for a bit until they play one of the big boys as an under dog. Outlook: This week they’ll face Maryland and should be big favorites with Northwestern and Michigan State on deck.
Georgia Tech vs. Duke
We were on Duke in this spot last week noting Georgia Tech’s head coach said the Duke defense was the best he’s seen in 8 years from Duke at least. I knew we were getting value as Georgia Tech is a bit over rated their score against Notre Dame the week before was off and not as close as the 30-22 final suggested. Duke took this game 34-20 which I did not predicts. Georgia Tech was held to 2.9 ypc on 60 carries, but had more first downs and more passing yards and had 21 more plays than Duke. The difference in the game was turnovers and Georgia Tech’s inability to convert on 4th down (1-5). Outlook: Georgia Tech is still a heavy favorite against UNC, while Duke is now a 7 point favorite against BC which is really interesting. BC has no offense, but their defense is really strong. I expect a close battle of the defenses.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas
This game not nearly as close as the final score indicates of 30-27, but the oddsmakers were spot on with the final number at 3 points in favor of the Cowboys. Texas gave up 395 yards, and only put up 290, but what is really telling is Texas was not penalized, but had just 11 first downs to Oklahoma State’s 27. Texas also had 2 interceptions as Heard came back down to life. Outlook: Oklahoma State is a 7.5 point favorite against Kansas State, you just can not bet against a Bill Snyder coached team. Meanwhile Texas is a 15 point under dog on the road against TCU. Interesting to see how TCU responds after last week.
TCU vs. Texas Tech
Wild game that I leaned towards Texas Tech, but could not pull the trigger. Patrick Mahomes is a legit QB in this league I’m excited to see what he does this week against Baylor. This game was crazy right until the end including TCU’s tip winning TD catch in the back of the end zone. This was a clean fun game to watch, with no turnovers and over 600 yards for Tech and 750 yards for TCU. In the end the game was there for Tech to have and I think only TCU has an inflated line this week. Outlook: How do both teams respond after a crazy game? Not sure neither defense is good and Tech is a 17 point dog at Baylor while TCU is a 15 point favorite vs. Texas. Both games I will likely stay away. Totals are 89 with Texas Tech /Baylor & 72 with Texas /TCU and totals over 70 this year have gone over 14 out of 16 times. I do expect the unders to start to hit, but I’m not so sure I can stomach betting on those.
Tennessee vs. Florida
Well well we have another Butch Jones can’t come up with a big win moment here. Tennessee outgained Florida by 27, held them to 3-15 on third down, but missed a late field goal that cost them the game. They also gave up 5-5 on 4th down to the Gators. Outlook: Tennessee plays Arkansas as a 6.5 point favorite at home while Florida hosts Ole Miss as a 7 point dog. Huge game for Florida that I’m probably going to be playing, because it’s a bad match up for Ole Miss against Florida’s strength of the secondary. Upset alert for that game. Ole Miss had issues with Vanderbilt last week so unfortunately we probably aren’t getting enough line value.
Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
Arkansas is not as bad as their record, but they just can not get over the hump. I don’t know if it’s coaching, or the lack of a clutch player, but again they could not make the plays in the big moments of the game to win. Ironically they play a team that has similar issues this week in Tennessee, but in this game Arkansas outgained the Aggies, had 8 more first downs were better on 3rd down, and had as many turnovers as the Aggies, but the fumble by Allen was a big one at the end of the game while they were driving for a game winning field goal. Outlook- I was a big fan of Arkansas last year, and I’m just having a hard time backing this team right now. A&M is a large favorite against Miss State and I think that line is pretty sharp at 7.
Miss State vs. Auburn
Miss State went in and beat Auburn, but Auburn did everything they could to give this game away in my opinion. Auburn out gained Miss State, had 7 more first downs, held them to 2.7 ypc which was a great improvement, +13 minutes in TOP, they even were even in TO margin, but lose 17-9. They go 0-4 in the red zone in terms of TD’s and 2-4 overall scoring. Auburn should have won and covered this game, but I’m not at all surprised at this point. Outlook – Auburn will continue to have value ATS, Miss State will be over rated and this week Auburn may gain some confidence by running the score up against San Jose State at home 20 point favorites, while Miss State opened up as 5.5 point under dogs and have moved to 7 which leads me to believe a lot of sharp money has come in on A&M.
Arkansas State vs. Toledo
I still think Toledo is over rated a bit and got a bit lucky. Arkansas State is a play I gave away late on Saturday, and I was waiting on their QB Freddie Knighten who was probable for the game. He did not end up playing which really frustrated me as he is basically all of their offense. Outlook: Arkansas State is back at home and a 20.5 point favorite vs. Idaho. Meanwhile Toledo opened up as a 9 point road favorite at Ball State. Money has come in heavy on Ball State and they are down to a 6.5 point favorite. Ball State of course we mentioned last week as a team that would give Northwestern issues considering the hype was on them now after starting the year undefeated and were 18.5 point favorites. Ball State covered the spread easily losing 19-24.
Utah vs. Oregon
I said in last week’s podcast this line would open up at a TD in favor of Oregon. It opened up at 12.5 we jumped on it right away and the rest is history. Mark Helfrich definitely not as good of a coach and we are saying the struggles on both sides of the ball for this team. Kyle Whittingham just simply out coached them. In my analysis for this game I wrote about Utah’s special teams and how they had the best special teams in the country. Their punter had a great day ran for 33 yards on a fake punt, and they returned a punt for a TD and many other key plays. Outlook: Oregon is not this bad and Utah may not be this good. I will not fade Utah with a great coach, but it will be interesting to see where Oregon goes from here. They open up as 12 point favorites against Colorado and have moved to 7.5 on the road which is extremely telling on what the oddsmakers, and sharps think about Oregon.
UCLA vs. Arizona
We played on the Bruins despite some of their injuries here against Arizona. Truly felt they had the more experienced team and my algorithims loved UCLA. This was over at the half at 42-14 and it really could have been worse. Arizona got a lot of garbage time yards as UCLA backed off in the 56-30. Outlook: Oddsmaker’s still high on UCLA and rightfully so. We will wait to play on them at this point as they are 13.5 point favorites to open up against Arizona State, (6 before the season). Arizona State of course was dead awful vs. USC. This is a no play for me although I’d lean towards UCLA. Colorado is 3-1 and playing well, but they really haven’t played anyone with an offense so this should be really interesting to see where this line goes. If it gets under 6.5 I may have to jump on it.
USC vs. Arizona State
I was on Arizona State on Saturday. I have never seen a team more afraid of another. I don’t know what Todd Graham’s strategy was early on in this game, but it wasn’t good. Arizona State could not get out of it’s own way in this game. First of all they were so afraid to speed up the game, because their defense literally had no answer for USC. USC had 28 points off turnovers, one was a 14 point swing on a 94 yard fumble return as Arizona State went 2-4 in the red zone. I will say this game was closer than the score would indicate as Arizona State had turnovers that left USC with 28 points off turnovers. Although in garbage time they had only 1 more yard than USC, held them to 2.4 ypc, while they averaged 5.2 had the ball longer, 8 fewer penalties, more first downs. Outlook: This is not the week to back Arizona State, perhaps against Colorado at home the following week. For USC they get a bye before hosting Washington and then a road game at Notre Dame.
Top 5 for week 5
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma
Oklahoma is the 7 point favorite after opening up at 9 points. Oklahoma’s defense really bad now that they have moved to this new offense. We don’t know enough about West Virginia at this point. This one is going to be a pass for me. I would lean towards West Virginia, but Oklahoma is off a bye. Bob Stoops is an incredible 16-4 coming off the bye week straight up. Of course he could win by only 3 points here and not cover the spread.
Alabama vs. Georgia
Extremely interested to see if I can get this game with Alabama at +3. Georgia has not played anyone and I mentioned that Alabama would have some value after that Ole Miss loss where they seriously did not play as bad. To lose by 6 points after turning the ball over 5 times is a major achievment. Now they are under dogs for the first time in 72 games.
Ole Miss vs. Florida
The story here is whether or not Florida can score enough to cover, but the spread has pushed up to 7.5 points. I would seriously lean towards Florida the home dog here. They have one of the best secondaries in the country and as you know Ole Miss has struggles running. Alabama’s one weakness is in the secondary and they were able to take advantage, but Florida does not have that problem that’s for sure.
Miss State vs. Texas A&M
Sharps appear to be all over A&M and why not. Miss State still has a ton of question marks for me, and they were extremely lucky that Auburn went 0-4 in the red zone last week. I don’t believe that will happen with A&M at Kyle Field where the Aggies have been great in the red zone 73%, 75%, 80% in TD% the last 3 years.
Notre Dame vs. Clemson
Clemson has extra preparation time in this one having played Louisville on that Thursday night two weeks ago. The question is does it hurt them or help them? Notre Dame had a nice scrimmage against Umass this past week so it will be interested to see how they respond to being under dogs, although they have moved to a -1 favorite at some shops. This is that big game for Clemson and I don’t know if Swinney can get them over the hump. I need to look more at this game for sure because it should be exciting.
Top 3 WR target %:
Tyler Boyd #1 with 36.49% targets – Pitt
Daniel Braverman – 36.18% from Western Mich
Aaron Burbridge – 35.24 % from Michigan State
Top 3 Red Zone Targets
Josh Doctson – TCU 9
Chris Godwin – PSU – 8,
Jordan Williams – Ball State
Jordan Westerkamp – Nebraska
Shaq Washington – Cincinnati
