You can check out all of my picks from week 2 in my released picks forum. All of my picks are released minutes after the game, because integrity matters. That means my play selections can be viewed to the public once a game starts including my in depth analysis.
Miami vs. Florida Atlantic – Friday Night
This one was a hard loss to swallow against the spread, because I truly felt like I was on the right side and we had everything going for us As this game was 20-17 at the half, and 20-20 in the 3rd quarter, but in the end Florida Atlantic shot themselves in the foot time after time. They lost their starting QB and their best offensive player on their first drive (Jacquez Johnson), and Jason Driskel, (Jeff’s younger brother), came in and looked to settle in just fine, until they started turning the ball over like crazy. Count them, 5 turnovers, and they still nearly hang on to cover against the spread.
Takeaways: FAU will be just fine when they start conference play, but I want to see Jacquez Johnson come back, and see what this defense does, because they struggled in week 1 against Tulsa, but covered the spread.
Week 3 Outlook – Miami will face an angry Nebraska team and have opened up as 4 point favorites, but I still think the public is behind on how good Miami may or could be. I probably will watch this game, because it will be a good indicator on where these two programs are as Nebraska was lucky enough to play a cupcake to rebound from their devastating loss against BYU.
Utah State vs. Utah – Friday Night
This was a very enjoyable game in the Battle of the Brothers. Utah State’s offense struggled too much as I knew they would in my complimentary play on the under. Chuckie Keeton is a tough guy, and played through what seemed like a knee injury. Travis Wilson suffered a shoulder injury and is expect to miss time but will return for the Oregon game in week 4. Week 3 Outlook – The Utah State plays at Washington and are already 6 point under dogs. I’ll defer to my algorithms to see if we have a play there, but I see a lot of value, because Utah State’s defense is very under rated, but they do come off this rivalry game which is tough.
Saturday’s Betting Recap – Week #2
Florida State vs. South Florida
Florida State struggled early to get things going which is to be expected in a 11:30 AM start. Golson was not impressive at all which was surprising, but he’s lucky to have Dalvin Cook bail him out with over 200 yards rushing. Cook is an amazing talent, but if Golson does not play better it might be tough against a defense that can plan for a one dimensional attack. They face Boston College on a short week and have already dropped from 10 point road favorites to 7.5 point favorites.
Houston vs. Louisville
Houston covered the 2TD spread and won outright at Louisville. This was a big upset and you have to wonder if Louisville was up for this game after playing Auburn and having Clemson on a short week, or if Auburn and Louisville just aren’t very good. I actually think it was just a tough spot for Louisville and Houston is very under rated. Greg Ward at QB was spectacular and I look forward to seeing what they do in the future. Louisville gets Clemson at home and have already gone from opening up as a pk, to 6.5 or 7 point under dogs. You can’t over react to one game, and the value is high on Louisville and it’s either going to be a play or no play for me.
Minnesota vs. Colorado State
Minnesota was down most of this game, but they were able to win in OT. This was our top play of the week, and we covered with Colorado State. Minnesota did have some issues on the road as we all expect by now especially following their week 1 performance against TCU. I was not surprised to see some of the struggles, but I was pretty damn nervous in OT. All in all a very sloppy game as there were 6 total turnovers and we were very lucky to get the cover when you take into consideration Colorado State had 4 of them. Week 3 Outlook: Colorado State hosts Colorado, and I think they may have been looking ahead. Their performance was not impressive against Minnesota they opened up at -1 and are now +4 where I see value, because let’s be honest Colorado has 3 wins since 2011 on the road.
Notre Dame vs. Virginia
Notre Dame very fortunate to win this game. Malik Zaire is done for the year with a broken ankle which is unfortunate, but he was only 7-18 in this game and Deshone Kizer has a strong arm and went 8-12 including the game winning TD throw off his back foot. Tough loss for Virginia and I’m predicting a total collapse from them. They had this game won, and now where do they go from here? Mike London is a very under rated coach that hasn’t been able to keep up with the excellent recruiting over the years. Virginia gets an easy game this week against an FCS foe, but then Boise State, and at Pittsburgh will both be losses. Week 3 Outlook: How quickly can Notre Dame rebound? They open up as a 2 point dog to Georgia Tech this week, and I think the value is on Notre Dame. I think their defense steps up big this week, but I’ll have to look into this match up more. Many teams have played well at Notre Dame over the past few years.
Toledo vs. Arkansas
I did look to play Arkansas on Thursday, but decide not to and it was a great choice since they were 21 point favorites. Right now they are just having a ton of issues running the ball. Toledo did not play great and actually were out gained by nearly 200 yards. Brandon Allen played well, but he missed a few throws including what would have been a game winning TD catch to Hunter Henry. Week 3 Outlook: Don’t over react to this one game. I think it was a mathematical anomaly that Arkansas did not win that game. Toledo is a 7.5 point favorite hosting Iowa State, and I think that might be a difficult game for them to get up for after that type of a win. Arkansas remains a favorite against Texas Tech by 11.5 points at home, but probably were going to open up at over 14 point favorites so their may be some value there.
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
I said on last week’s podcast that I just did not trust Tennesee’s head coach Butch Jones, and Tennessee blows it’s largest lead at home. They were up 17-0 at half, and this game was really not much to watch. The difference was Oklahoma made adjustments, and Tennessee’s coaching is just over rated in my opinion. Week 3 Outlook: Tennessee is so lucky they get a cup cake this week in Western Carolina, meanwhile Oklahoma will face Tulsa. Tulsa I have researched in back to back weeks and I am 2-0 ATS. I really think there is value to be had in this line when it opened at 34.5, but now down to 30.5 I will have to take a closer look this week.
Auburn vs. Jacksonville State
Poor coaching by Jacksonville State who had the ball 40 yards outside of field goal zone with 40 seconds left in regulation and they kneel it to take it to OT against a more talented team. For Auburn, they got out gained in the game which I never would have predicted in a million years. I’m going to toss it up to being a weird game, but Jeremy Johnson has a lot to prove now or his spot could be in jeopardy. 60% completions 7 yards/attempt for 3 TD and 5 interceptions while he’s rushed it 9 times for 18 yards. Week 3 Outlook: I have to take a long look at Auburn +7.5 vs. LSU, because we are getting roughly 4.5 points of value here. It’s a sell high, buy low situation and LSU comes off their impressive road win against Miss State. I may have to jump on this line early, but I need to take another look at LSU’s game.
Oregon vs. Michigan State
Michigan State had this game in control for most of the game, but could have easily lost it late. Having the more experienced QB definitely paid off and Vernon Adams pretty much single handily lost the Ducks this game. Adams threw 2 interceptions and missed his receiver running wide open down the field with what would have been a game ending TD for Oregon and we would be sitting here telling a difference story. Michigan State was out gained on the ground, but their running game was excellent which was something that was a question mark coming into this season. Madre London & LJ Scott had nice days. Week 3 outlook – Both teams have easy games up next.
Week 3 Outlook – Stay tuned for our next podcast where we will break down some interesting games.
Top 5 most interesting games for Week 3:
#1 Alabama hosting Ole Miss (-6)
#2 Auburn @ LSU (+7.5)
#3 Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame (-2)
#4 Stanford @ USC (-10)
#5 BYU @ UCLA (-16.5)
