Week #1 Betting Recap -Thursday Night
South Carolina vs. North Carolina – (17-13)
The Gamecocks covered this spread late, and I’m glad I did not play it. I actually leaned heavily towards the Tarheels, but I just can’t trust them until I see more. They definitely have the opportunity to surprise people this year and are on my list of teams with value. Their defense looked far better, but in the end they could not get over the hump. North Carolina did not score in the second half, and despite out gaining South Carolina gave up 254 rushing yards, got dominated in time of possession 35-25, and turned the ball over 3 times. How they only lost by 4 is beyond me, but it was my exact fear for this game. I’m happy with the outcome it means I have a very good read on both teams very early in the season. South Carolina’s defense is better than I thought.
Western Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt – (14-12)
Wow, this is 1 of 2 frustrating games on the night, and I’m not just saying that because I bet them both. I actually got lucky after releasing this game very early in the week when Vanderbilt was a pick-em. I got them closer to game time at +2.5 and won my bet, but Vanderbilt should have won this game outright if it weren’t for the mistakes in the red zone. QB Johnny McCrary threw 2 interceptions in the red zone into the end zone that cost his team. It’s not common that one player can cost a team, but on Thursday night it did. Vanderbilt out gained Western Kentucky 393 to 247, but had 3 turnovers. They even dominated them more in time of possession 37-23. At the end of the day I’m glad I sneaked by with an ATS win, but my main takeaway is that Vanderbilt is not good! I really expected more from Derek Mason and it’s going to be a long season, because this was a game they had to win.
Michigan vs. Utah – (17-24)
You could easily argue that Michigan dominated this game. Although the surface stats won’t indicate the word dominance, 355 yards to 337. It is clear Michigan will be very good this year and they are much improved, but this game was more frustrating for me and I’m sure my clients. I gave out Michigan as a max play of the day which I never do lightly. You can check out my full in depth analysis here on why I liked them so much and I believe I was pretty accurate. Although I would have liked to see them be better against the run. In my analysis I wrote that Jake Rudock could not make mistakes. I also wrote I was super confident, because at Iowa he was that type of QB, but I think being at Michigan got the best of him last night. He obviously transferred here to play under Harbough, and seemed to have more confidence than he should. He threw 3 interceptions and 1 came on a pick 6 that completely changed the game, because Michigan was driving to tie the game. That does not even tell the entire story for Rudock who missed at least 3 guys running deep wide open down the field. If Rudock continues to make these mistakes that ultimately cost his team a great win on the road I would expect another QB to take over very soon. Very humbling game for me to watch, and that’s why I love college football betting.
TCU vs. Minnesota – (23-17)
Initially I really wanted to play the Gophers here, and had this game been on Saturday I probably would have. TCU over rated just a bit in my opinion and Minnesota is that gritty, lunch pail type of group that I knew would give TCU trouble. TCU did escape with a win, but it’s something to keep an eye on as they progress, because it’s going to be really difficult for them to repeat last year. They were also a team that left the state of Texas just twice all of last year.
Colorado vs. Hawaii – (20-28)
I did not release this game until very late, but I’m happy to wake up to an easy cover. I had no idea why Colorado who had only won 3 road games since 2011 were a TD favorite. I respect that they are improving, but catching Hawaii this early in the season while they are still injury free and at home were some of the big reasons why I backed Hawaii. Hawaii’s offense though struggled quite a bit to move the ball with only 14 first downs which surprised me. I really thought going up against a defense like Colorado that they would have success. Especially when you consider they have a blue chip QB transfer from USC, and they bring in arguably the best offensive mind from FCS in Don Bailey from Idaho State. Either way it was considered my Friday POD since it was Friday on the east coast when this game started.
As of right now I have just 1 NCAAF pick going on Saturday + 1 Free pick which you can check out. I will be releasing possibly 2 more plays and I’m unsure if one will be a POD. I believe I will definitely release a teaser once I find great value. I went 13-2 last year on 6 point college football teasers!
Tags: college football, football picks
