Week 1 of the college football season is wrapping up. I have to say week one is just as tough for the books, because they are pretty far off on many of these games. I was lucky enough to have a very profitable week 1. Check it out over at www.freddywills.com
Let’s take a look at some of the biggest mistakes Vegas made in week 1. Tons of tips from me on what all this means and what we can expect to see value on in week 2. I touched a little bit on this in my last podcast and article, “MAC Conference Margin of Victory ATS Analysis.”
Essentially we can find value in games based on public perception. I believe this is more true of games below featuring big brand names like Alabama. Alabama covered the spread against another big brand name team in USC. Thus, we should have some value fading Alabama in coming weeks. Alabama is a perfect example of inflated lines to come, because the oddsmakers know they are a public favorite bet and will only be more of a favorite after their performance in week 1.
USC vs. Alabama – Covered by 32.5 points. This was a highly anticipated match up in week one. My source of offshore sportsbooks had 69% of bets coming in on Alabama. It appeared to be public money and sharp money as the line moved from 10 to -14 in favor of Alabama.
What does all of this mean? Alabama is already a huge favorite this week against Western Kentucky in a potential look ahead spot. Alabama opened up as a 24 point favorite and already moved to 27. Alabama goes on the road to play Ole Miss, who they have lost to in back to back years. Unlike many other teams in the nation Alabama gets respect from the voters and I don’t see them trying to blow Western Kentucky out. I definitely will be looking to fade Alabama here a little bit, but I”ll wait until this game goes over 28.
LA Tech vs. Arkansas – Failed to cover by 20 points. Arkansas was getting a lot of action with over 75% of bets coming in on the Razorbacks over Louisiana Tech moving the line nearly 2 points and over the key number of 21.
Arkansas clearly struggled in this game with less than 300 yards of total offense. It’s tough not to jump off Arkansas after a performance like this where they averaged less than 3 yards per carry. Arkansas goes on the road to face TCU, a team that gave up a ton of points to non FBS school.
I typically would look to back Arkansas after a performance like this just because we should have value the following week, but I’m not ready to say that I will do that for sure and that’s because TCU also had issues. Arkansas opens up as a 7.5 point dog on the road against TCU, who gave up 41 points, and 461 yards to South Dakota State.
Connecticut did not cover by 24 points against Maine.
Uconn was a 27 point favorite at home against Maine, but snuck by with a 24-21 victory at home on Saturday. This is supposed to be one of the more improved teams in the AAC, and many have doubts after looking at this score. This was a pretty much a back and forth game with Maine, but Uconn did control the time of possession 36 to 23.
Uconn is now a 3.5 point dog on the road at Navy, who had to replace nearly their entire team, and now lost their starting QB this week. I see some value with Connecticut if you were able to grab them on the opening line of 7.5. It’s now down to 4 or 3.5 in most places and I will likely pass since they are not one of the 18 games my algorithms want me to look at this week. Also Uconn was 1-5 ATS following a win or loss ATS of 7+ a year ago.
American Athletic Conference – Following W&L’s of 7+ ATS:
Actually teams with losing records in the AAC a year ago were 0-5 ATS in their next game (if they were at home) following a win ATS 7+, and 3-6 ATS at home following a loss ATS 7+. Overall Vegas did not know how to set the line following a big win or loss ATS if the team was at home the next week. Teams with a winning record however went 26-10 ATS following a win or loss ATS of 7+. It did not matter if they were home or away. Following a win ATS 7+ they were 10-3 at home and 10-5 on the road. After a loss ATS 7+ they were 4-1 at home and 2-1 on the road.
Michigan State missed by 22.5
Michigan State only had 1 more first down than Furman. They had just +135 yards in the game, and were -1 in turnover margin. This was very much like their season opener a year ago against Western Michigan where it was a one possession game in the 4th. That Spartans team went on to play in the college football playoff so I can’t say I’m too concerned moving forward. Michigan State also gets this week off before going on the road to face Notre Dame in week 3. I consider myself to be one of The Best College Football Experts!
Temple did not cover by 29.5 over Army
Our sources indicated heavy backing on Temple, and we gave out Army as a top play on Friday for an easy cover. A cover ATS by 30 points actually, and the market has clearly over reacted tot his game making Army a double digit favorite this week against Rice, who lost big against Western Kentucky last week. I am a big backer on Army because of the experience and the coaching and that’s a major reason why I backed them last week, but it’s hard to see this team winning by double digits in back to back weeks. Army, the slowest team in pace will face Rice, a team that beat Army 38-31 a year ago and returns a good bulk of their guys on offense and defense.
Fact is the project margin of victory before the season was 1.5 in favor of Rice, and now they are a 9.5 point under dog. If they get up to 10.5 I may have to be fading a team I spoke about a ton in the off season in Army. Army, has not been a double digit favorite since the 90’s, but then again they haven’t had a team like this since the 90’s.
Colorado covered by 30 over Colorado State
I was not surprised by the result here. Colorado State’s recruiting and team talent has taken a major hit in back to back years losing NFL caliber players while the Buffaloes have been on the rise. The public probably not anxious to back Colorado State moving forward considering 55% of bets were on them and they missed covering by more than 4 TD’s. However, lets not over react as Colorado State is a 10 point favorite this week. No way I would touch that even if it is against Texas San Antonio. Meanwhile Colorado hosts Idaho State with no line to report. I will say this the final score of 44-7 was as bad as it looked with the Buffaloes putting up +16 first downs, +353 yards with a balanced offense and good special teams. Colorado does look much improved.
Ohio State covered by 39.5 over Bowling Green
I am really mad at myself for not at least looking at this game last week. Bowling Green earned some brand rights last year with that offense and Dino Babers, but they lost their entire coaching staff and hired guys who have no coaching experience either. Meanwhile Ohio State has been the forgotten team on the national stage since they lost all that talent. Nobody does more with young talent than Urban Meyer and he has the Heisman front runner in my opinion in J.T. Barret.
Ohio State had huge public backing and they delivered nonetheless it sets them up to be a huge public play moving forward. I can’t say I’m going to rush to back them or fade them, but the game on my radar is week 3 against Oklahoma. The game of the year lines had Ohio State as a 6.5 point under dog in that game and I expect them to be adjusted. Ohio State is a 28.5 point favorite this week I would lean towards Tulsa and that offense to cover as the Buckeyes may be looking ahead. A young team, at home with an inflated line and Oklahoma on deck. It would be challenging for any team not to look ahead in that scenario.
Houston covered by 23 over Oklahoma
Houston was getting just 45% of the action in this one according to my sources and the line moved from 10 to 13. You know that Oklahoma had some sharp money which is surprising to me since I played Houston big and was very confident in my analysis. Houston is off this week essential as they play Lamar and their does not figure to be a line until later in the week. We want no part in that.
I am interested in seeing what happens with Cincinnati this week at Purdue. Considering Houston has to go on the road to play them and struggled a year ago.
Washington State did not cover by 30.5 points ATS vs. Eastern Washington
This was not a huge surprise as Mike Leach is a terrible coach as a favorite and we have seen this team struggle to open a season before. With that said I will look to back the Cougars here in week 2 against Boise State. We are getting tremendous value on that game because of one game and one outcome as Washington State lost straight up as a 28 point favorite. The defense gave up 606 total yards and had just 515 themselves, but in fairness it seems like this team was looking ahead to Boise State maybe.
This is a team that lost against Portland State a year ago, and then went on the road to defeat Rutgers as a 2 point under dog. So they have been in this position before. I’m not saying Boise is the same as Rutgers, but there is something to be said about line value and this line was completely different before Washington State losing. Washington State return 79% of their production from a year ago, and Boise State is one of those brands that Vegas is not afraid of posting inflated lines on.
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