It was another winning week for me in college football although partially lucky with the Texas cover and win, but we won on Thursday, and Saturday on our max rating POD’s and finished 5-5 ATS taking home just over 5 units or $5,000 for $1,000 bettors. We are now 5-1 ATS on college football play of the days and 3-0 ATS on NFL top plays! However, let’s get straight to the action with the key games of week 3 and what it means for week 4. Check out my premium plays at www.sportsbetcapping.com/freddywills – only place to get my picks guaranteed or your $$ back!
Ole Miss vs Alabama
Lets start from the top with Ole Miss vs. Alabama. We ironically gave out Alabama as a free pick Saturday, but I did not expect Nick Saban to make a boneheaded decision to start Cooper Bateman over Coker. There seems to be more going on here with Nick Saban and Lane Kiffin not getting along and now I think we see Jake Coker for the rest of the season, but what a terrible decision in a big game. Jake Coker came in and didn’t look great, but obviously more capable. In the end Ole Miss didn’t look as good and Alabama didn’t look as bad. There were a lot of funky plays in this game that went Ole Miss’s way and they only won by 6 despite being +5 in turnovers, they were -13 in 1st downs, -70 total yards, and Alabama dominated time of possession by over 10 minutes. Outlook – What does this mean for the future? We are going to hopefully get some value backing Alabama in the right situation and fading Ole Miss. I’m more excited to fade Ole Miss than back Alabama, because there seems to be other issues with ego’s and coaching involved that could impact future games. Ole Miss faces Vanderbilt this week at home the line opened at 28 and moved to 25, I can’t get very excited about this match up although Vanderbilt’s defense is very under rated.
Clemson @ Louisville
We took Louisville as a top play rating on Thursday (you can read our thoughts here – Louisville +6 5.5*), and sprinkled a little on the money line with Louisville. We covered the spread, but did not pull off the outright victory for our college football pick. However, this was a very enjoyable game to watch despite some sloppy play by each QB turning the ball over twice. Clemson has +129 yards of offense in the game, but only 4 more first downs. Louisville started slow again, but was great late especially on defense. I’m still waiting for Bobby Petrino’s offense to start clicking. Louisville gets Samford next followed by a road game at NC State, while Clemson gets a week off before hosting Notre Dame, loser will be out of the playoff discussion.
Florida State @ Boston College
Not too much here we passed on the game, but recommended possibly a play on the over in live betting which you could have gotten at 28.5 at half time, but you still would have lost your bet. Takeaways from this game would have to be that both offenses struggled and will continue to struggle. Both had to replace all 5 of their starting offensive lineman although the consensus going forward will be that each defense dominated and I’m not sure that’s true. Florida State gets a bye week before facing Wake Forest on the road, while BC will host Northern Illinois who almost pulled an upset on Ohio State. BC has opened up as a -4, and you will probably see that under 3 by game time.
Connecticut @ Missouri
Missouri now has Kentucky up next and are 3 point under dogs already, and it could be the fact that they nearly lost to Uconn in their own building 9-6 on Saturday. Is Uconn better than we think, or is Missouri worse? Either way Missouri has a similar game last year that was unexplainable when they lost to Indiana, and I think we could be getting some value here in week 4 with Missouri. Connecticut held Missouri to 270 yards and both teams had 2 turnovers.
Tulsa @ Oklahoma
What a wild game with Tulsa having over 600 yards and Oklahoma nearly 800. I played a lot of these guys in my Draft Kings teams on Saturday and it definitely paid off. Baker Mayfield broke all kinds of records. I leaned towards Tulsa +31.5 for a college football against the spread, but mentioned in last week’s podcast that we already lost a lot of value seeing them open up as 35.5 and drop. Phil Montgomery definitely has Tulsa as a serious contender with this offense and they get a bye before hosting Houston next Saturday. Oklahoma will host West Virginia in 2 weeks as well.
Northwestern @ Duke
Northwestern won the turnover battle, but failed to have over 300 yards, but won by 9 points on the road as a 4 point under dog. There is no question that Northwestern is due for the over hype game failure. They host Ball State this week as an 18.5 point favorite and then Minnesota the next week where they could also be double digit favorites. I may want to take a look at Ball State this week as the MAC teams have been performing extremely well this season vs. the power 5.
Georgia State vs. Oregon
It doesn’t matter who the QB is and this defense is not even close to being as good as they have been in years past. They gave up 300 yards passing again to a QB named Arbuckle and over 430 yards in total offense. Georgia State turned the ball over 4 times, this game was much closer. Oregon will host Utah this week and there is no line. I’m interested to see, because Utah’s offensive strengths fall on their running game not passing game. The value may be here on Utah even though they are getting a ton of hype right now.
Auburn vs. LSU
Auburn started this game terribly and were shutout 24-0 in the first half. They were out gained by over 200 yards, and LSU ran for 411 yards. Just a pathetic performance in my opinion and I am truly embarrassed to give out Auburn as a premium selection on Saturday. LSU’s defense is very good and I was high on them coming into the season, but I can’t imagine a one dimensional offense like LSU putting up 45 points on Will Muschamp. I expect it to get fixed, and I expect Auburn’s offense to improved but they may have to move to more of a wild cat offense the rest of the year. Jeremy Johnson looked better in the second half. Outlook – LSU goes on the road to play Syracuse in the Carrier Dome and are 24 point favorites. That might be tougher than expected considering Syracuse can stop the run so I will definitely look at Syracuse as a college football picks against the spread selection. Auburn meanwhile will host Miss State as a 3 point favorite and I really like the value we are getting there.
Nebraska vs. Miami
This was a final in OT, and a legendary back door cover for anyone on this game and having Nebraska +3.5 I congratulate you. Nebraska sloppy on the road with 3 turnovers and 23 of their 33 points in the 4th quarter. Miami looked really good early, but seemed to take the foot off the gas late which points to poor coaching. I’ve said over and over I’m not an Al Golden fan. Outlook – Nebraska gets Southern Miss this week who at 22.5 points have a lot of value. There will be a ton of points scored in that game. Take some of those players in draftkings this week!
Cincinnati vs. Miami (OH)
Cinci looked really bad again on the scoreboard, but played much better. Cincinatti will go on the road to play Memphis and are more than a TD under dog which provides a lot of value, but I need to see if their 5 star QB Gunner Kiel will play or not. Either way that game should feature plenty of points.
Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame
Very boring game that Notre Dame pretty much controlled. Outlook – Notre Dame will face a lot of bad offenses the rest of the year and have a real shot at going undefeated. USC is the game I’d circle, but this defense is very very talented.
Utah State vs. Washington
Washington is looking better than anyone expected at this point. Chris Peterson has a very young team and they are already playing better than people expected. My hesitation would be jumping on them too late. Is the value gone? They will host California and are 4.5 point under dogs. I watched the Texas Cal game and Cal dominated, and nearly gave that game away late.
SMU vs. TCU
SMU has a legit team and offense as they put up over 500 yards on TCU. TCU put up 720. We may be a bit late on SMU in terms of value, but this offense is legit with Chad Morris (Clemson OC), taking over as head coach. They just need to learn to convert in the red zone as TCU really held them in check which really kept this game from getting extremely interesting. For TCU I said before they are over rated this year and this week against Texas Tech on the road may be the time to fade them. I only wish Arkansas beat Texas Tech so we would have more points to work with.
Stanford USC
Northwestern is looking even better now after Stanford went in and beat USC as a double digit under dog. This was probably one of the more impressive and surprising games of the weekend as Stamford just flat out dominated USC in their own building. Outlook – Stanford has to go on the road on a short week to face Oregon State, and have Arizona/UCLA to follow. Strong possibility I’ll have Oregon State +15.5 and possibly even the money line here. Meanwhile USC will go on the road to face Arizona State and are 5.5 point favorites. Not sure what to make of that line I think it’s actually pretty sharp.
BYU vs. UCLA
How much longer can BYU keep up their play? I mentioned on last week’s podcast that this team is a group of grown men and can’t be taken lightly. I was afraid to back them at +17 and I wish I wasn’t as they probably should have beaten UCLA on the road. They outgained them were 40 minutes to 20 minutes in time of posession and +2 in turnovers. Josh Rosen finally looked like a freshmen with 11-23, 106 yards and 3 interceptions. Meanwhile UCLA ran for 296 yards which was the difference, but they were 1-9 on 3rd down. Really I can’t even tell you why they won this game. Outlook – Now it’s a true road game for Josh Rosen at Arizona and he’s a 3.5 point favorite. Possibly the wrong team is favored here. BYU will go on the road again to face Michigan who is a 5.5 point favorite. Sharp line, Michigan’s defense is top tier, but I’m not sold on their offense. I expect that game to go under although BYU likes to pass.
