Last year Alabama had Blake Sims & Amari Cooper playing and losing at Ole Miss. It was arguably the best moment and game in the Ole Miss program’s history and they did it behind a veteran QB and a very good defense. Now the challenge is to go on the road to take on an Alabama team that has questions at QB, and special teams. Alabama players have revenge on their mind, but the calm, cool, and collected Nick Saban says otherwise.
Can Alabama throw when it has to?
That all depends on who is in their at QB, but so far it’s been a bit dissapointment for both QB’s, and Nick Saban has vocalized this. The senior Jake Coker has has more of an opportunity to gel with the first team and has ocmpleted 63.8% of his passes for 9.1 yds/att, 2 TD, and 1 interception for a 149.91 QB rating while Cooper Batemean has completed 72% of his passes for a 127.26 QB rating. Overall as a group these QB’s have a 142.06 QB rating compared with Blake Sims 157.87 of 2014. Blake Sims had a 116.62 QB rating at Ole Miss last October and still had opportunities to win late in that game. My prediction: TE O.J. Howard has multiple opportunities to redeem himself from last year’s miscues that ultimately cost Alabama the game on the road. Howard will catch 2 TD’s (1 from each QB).
Has the Ole Miss secondary lost a step?
Still plenty of talent on this side of the ball for the Rebels, but having to replace Cody Prewitt, and CB Senquez Golson, who had the game winning interception against Alabama last year could prove to be too much. Ole Miss pass defense last year was pretty darn good, but over 21 points in QB rating on the road vs. home. Despite losing two starters in their secondary they have plenty of 3 & 4 start guys that can fill in, but I’m not sold on them being able to do it on the road with an inability to get pressure on the QB (just 11 sacks last year in 6 games). My prediction: The secondary will ultimately cost them, but only because Alabama will run more than they will throw, and the defensive line will struggle to get pressure on the 2 QB’s from Alabama.
What about the Alabama secondary?
Bo Wallace dominated Alabama on the road with 3 passing TD’s, but again that was at home in the comfort of his own building. Wallace was a senior tenured QB, and his replacement Chad Kelly, the transfer from Clemson comes in with a lot of hype. Kelly, however making his first true road start in SEC play could be the difference in this game. Corners Cyrus Jones, Marlon Humphrey, Tony Brown will be tested by Treadwell, Core, Adeboyejo, and others. However, Alabama will have the advantage knowing they can stop the Rebels rushing attack with minimum help. Alabama’s pass defense has gotten worse in recent years, but still a top tier machine and they’ve got 4& 5 start guys in the line up with very good coaching. Tony Brown has the most talent and is only a sophomore, but Smith and Jones are experienced as seniors. My prediction: Chad Kelly will have some nice throws and plays, because he has serious elite WR, but at the end of the day Ole Miss will have issues running the ball.
Can Ole Miss run the ball?
If Wisconsin couldn’t run the ball (21 carries for 40 yards), on a neutral field, why would Ole Miss be able to? Not to mention Ole Miss averaged less than 3 yards per carry on the road which was a huge issue for them getting over the hump late last season. They ranked 89th in rushing S&P+ last year and looked great in their first 2 games rushing for 553 yards with a 7.79 ypc average. The problem is Ole Miss was home in both where they never had issues running last year, and they faced Tenn-Martin, and Fresno State (ranked 90th in run defense a year ago).
Final game & prediction:
I don’t really believe in the revenge factor, but I do put a lot of stock in Nick Saban’s 9-1 record vs. SEC opponents with revenge. His only loss was in 2011 to LSU 9-6 on the road in a game they probably should have won. If you watched last year’s game Alabama really controlled that game until late when Ole Miss tied it up with 5 minutes to go. Blake Simms interception was a huge deal, and O.J. Howard’s holding penalty was too. At the end of the day I think this is a huge step up in competition for Ole Miss they just aren’t ready for. Their is line value here, because of what Ole Miss has done the first few weeks, but I expect them to have the same old problems. Inability to have balance on offense, and they will struggle to stop Alabama late. Alabama’s special teams issues will only result in them going for it in the red zone and more points. Take Alabama -6.5 1.1* free play.
