In week 3 we broke down the SEC, and our leans went 5-1 ATS. This week we give you a full recap around the SEC as far as betting value is considered. I think there were several misleading finals including our POD pick on Arkansas and Tennessee looked a hell of a lot better in their game as we backed them in our teaser. We are now 24-5 since 2014 on teasers and all 6 of our recommended selections have actually won from a college football against the spread perspective.
SEC Conference:
Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS, returning home are just 6-12 ATS overall, and 1-5 ATS following a 21+ point victory ATS. Week #5 Lean – Fade Ole Miss and take a look at Memphis +14. Ole Miss got a huge victory last week against Georgia as a 7 point favorite winning 45-14. That final was a bit misleading and the idea is that Ole Miss line would be inflated this week. If you look at the box score this game was not as lopsided as the final score indicates. I probably won’t play this considering Memphis also off a huge victory of 77-3 over Bowling Green. Ole Miss also may have some revenge to settle as they lost against Memphis a year ago.
Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS, going back on the road are 12-4 ATS overall, including 3-0 ATS following a 21+ point victory ATS. Week #5 Lean – Back Texas A&M -18.5 at South Carolina. I was on Arkansas this past week, and I felt like we were in good shape, but Arkansas gave too many points off turnovers and once they got down big in that game it was lights out with that pass rush. I don’t like to back big road favorites, but it’s hard to see how South Carolina will score enough. The Aggies also have Tennessee up next so it’s a definite look ahead spot for them.
Winning teams following a loss of 7+ ATS, going back on the road are 0-6 ATS since the start of the 2015 season. There are no teams to report this week falling into this situation.
Losing teams following a win of 7+ ATS, are 2-10 ATS overall since the start of the 2015 season which includes 1-6 ATS mark if they were going back home. Thus these teams are over rated. Now it’s a little more difficult to predict which teams we feel will fall under the “losing teams category,” but I am pretty confident on a few. Week #5 Leans – Fade Vanderbilt and back Florida on the road as Vanderbilt probably got lucky last week they won as 8 point under dogs on the road. You can also look at fading Auburn at home against LA Monroe +32.5, and maybe fading Missouri +13 on the road against LSU. I would say Missouri is much closer to being a winning team this year than Auburn and Vanderbilt. Auburn is border line and got extremely lucky to win that game on Saturday.
Summary of leans – Memphis +14, Texas A&M -18.5, Florida -10, LA Monroe +32.5, LSU -13
