More or less my podcast which you can listen to here, but if you’d rather read it here it goes:
Today we are going to get into the SEC in the same way as well as break down some of the upcoming match ups, and recap week 11 as we had a ton of interesting things happen. I’m very excited as we look towards week 12 which should be our 4th profitable week in a row. Overall we went 7-4 ATS on the week (3-1 in SEC games) 5-2 on Saturday an d are 22-8-1 ATS the last 3 weeks of college football. You know I’ve said it over and over. I never lie about my records.
If you listen to this show you know that I’m extremely humble. I’m never ready to stop working, because I’ve had a little luck. It’s about the long term profitability. I may not be on top this year, but I have profited, and in the end I will profit. I’m dedicated to giving you the best analysis for your picks. You’ll have some handicappers out there that don’t even release an analysis and only a play. I’m ranked #1 in overall profit on the sportscapping network for a reason. I compete against over 100 professional handicappers, and nobody releases plays like I do. I’ve simply dominated late in the season and November is typically one of my better months! Some big games coming up with Thanksgiving and all and I’m looking forward to it all with the conference championships to follow along with the Bowl games. Definitely visit www.sportsbetcapping.com/freddywills for my premium plays and sign up for my newsletter where I give out 1 premium play per week. Last week it was Airforce +2, and they covered by 9 points. Okay now finally onto the SEC break down
Before we break down what each team did this week, and what each team has moving forward, and where you are going to find situational advantages let’s take a look at the full picture. LSU lost leaving just two SEC teams with 1 loss in the hunt for the college football playoff, and that would be Florida and Alabama. Vegas has been off on the spread by 7 points or more 79 times which means they are off by quite a bit 57% of the time. If you recall last week’s podcast Vegas was much more accurate when releasing lines for the ACC. The SEC has been all over the place, and I suspect that’s because the oddsmaker’s are over rating wins, and losses, simply for the fact that it’s the SEC and they know a lot of action will come in.
So we took a look at what team’s did given that scenario. In 79 opportunities where a team won or lost ATS by 7 or more points they did not cover the spread the next week 61% of the time. Essentially you would go 48-31 ATS just by fading that team the week after they covered the spread by 7 or more points. If you simply faded them after a loss you’d got 26-15 ATS which makes a lot of sense, because Vegas knows they are going to have action on the SEC and maybe they are over rating that team to come back with a strong performance, but it has not happened this year. A perfect example of that would be LSU this week. Now I’m excited to look at this in the off season for each conference to see if we have some validity to this approach, but so far we have looked at the ACC on last week’s podcast and now the SEC and the results are staggering.
Now I would never recommend you blindly look at these situations and automatically bet. There is much much more that goes into handicapping and this is just a nice start, because on any given college football week you have over 60 games. One person simply can not look into 60 games deeply. This is just another tool in the tool belt to help people figure out leans that they want to look at in more depth and that’s definitely what I do. I try to handicap no more than 25-30 games a week, and often times it’s less. I want to make sure I’m looking at each game thoroughly without over looking any details. Okay, so let’s look at what happened in week 11 and what it means moving forward. Let’s take a look at the SEC West who went 6-15 ATS following a loss ATS by 7 or more points.
ALABAMA –
Was extremely impressive this past week, I actually did not play this game, but this was another trench war won by Alabama on the road which resulted in a big win on the road for the Tide. They averaged 7.8 yards per carry as Derek Henry did whatever he wanted in front of an improving offensive line. I’ll say this game could have started differently. It took Alabama a bit longer to get things going, and they had a nice goal line stop against Miss State in the first quarter which could have made things a lot more interesting, because the stat sheet really does not look like an impressive Alabama win, but the score does.
Moving Forward: It’s a pass this week considering Alabama gets to play Charleston Southern before their big game against Auburn, but on the season Alabama is just 1-4 ATS following a win or loss ATS by 7 poitns or more. 1-2 after a loss, and 0-2 after a win. I would caution anyone backing this team the rest of the season. They will be favorites in all of their games based on brand and pedigree, and they backed it up the last two week winning ATS by 6.5, and 18.
LSU –
This seemed to be a huge hangover game, and maybe nobody is giving Arkansas a lot of credit. It took a while for Arkansas to get going this year, after being a lot of teams favorite, but they just went into LSU during a night game and flat out dominated holding LSU to 2.0 YPC, and rushing for 299 themselves on a 7.5 YPC average. LSU’s defense definitely not as good as year’s past and it was something that definitely showed in the Alabama game late.
Moving Forward: LSU has now lost ATS in back to back week’s by 6.5, and now 23.5 and will go on the road to play Ole Miss as a 4 point dog. I would lean towards playing LSU it may be some sort of play for me this week considering Ole Miss has a HUGE look ahead spot with the Egg Bowl against their biggest rival Miss State while LSU has Texas A&M getting to 10 wins by winning their last 3 games will be a huge goal for this Tigers team.
OLE MISS-
Ole Miss is actually off a bye after losing to Arkansas at home just like LSU, although LSU lost a lot worse. I will say this LSU was coming off their game of the year against Alabama, and it was going to be difficult for them to get up for the Arkansas game. Ole Miss on the year has gone 4-3 ATS following a win or loss ATS by 7 or more. They are 1 of 3 teams with a winning record in that situation.
Moving Forward: Of course Ole Miss is coming off a loss ATS by 7 or more which fits our approach here, but they are off a bye. Definitely cannot blindly play LSU here although early signs indicate that’s where the sharp money is.
Arkansas –
There may not be a team with more value right now after defeating Ole Miss on the road followed by LSU, two teams who were allegedly Alabama’s biggest competition. Oh yeah, Arkansas also played a nasty game against Alabama on the road so the fact that this team has gotten 2 wins in those 3 games is remarkable and clearly has saved Bret Bielema’s job. Overall this team has won 5 of their last 6 games and is playing how everyone thought they would play and they have the best QB from an efficiency perspective in the conference in Brandon Allen who has a 163 QB rating which is higher than Chad Kelly (155), and Dak Prescott (145), and of course Kyle Allen (140).
Moving Forward – Does Vegas inflate the numbers moving forward because of these last 2 wins? Arkansas is 0-2 ATS following a lost by 7 or more points, but 2-0 ATS following a win. I’d say they won’t considering Arkansas is a 3.5 point favorite at home against Miss State, who just came off that brutal loss to Alabama. What have teams done following Alabama? Ole Miss struggled at home against Vanderbilt losing ATS easily, Georgia lost as a favorite on the road against Tennessee, Arkansas had a bye to recover, Texas A&M hasn’t been the same losing big in their next game 3-23, Tennessee played well, but got a break with an easy match up, and LSU did not come close to putting up a good game at home at night against Arkansas. I would lean towards Arkansas here, but I probably would not take them unless I can get them at -3. I will say Miss State also looking ahead this week to the Egg Bowl.
MISS STATE –
As we just mentioned Miss State comes off the tough loss to Alabama which we spoke about when we spoke about Alabama. Dak Prescott is still a good leader and he will have his team fighting to get to 10 wins which I don’t think anyone would have predicted with the talent they lost after last season. Miss State this season has gone 0-1 after a loss of 7 or more points, but 4-2 ATS following a win ATS by 7 or more points, probably because Vegas has expected this team to revert to their talent which is not as good as last year, but they kept covering spreads.
Moving Forward: This team can still pass the ball and stop the pass so they will be a tough team down the stretch in the right matchup. I actually think they match up well against Ole Miss so stay tuned for a pick on that.
TEXAS A&M –
This team has not been the same since the Alabama game which is really a shame for all the talent they have and all the hype they were getting in the early season. It just goes to show you how talented this SEC West division is. The Aggies had their bye week essentially against Western Carolina this past week and they lost ATS by 10 points. They did not play a particularly sharp game with another 3 turnovers which have killed them all year. They are 1-5 ATS following a loss ATS by 7 or more, and are in that situation again this week.
Moving Forward – Vegas has been wrong on this team 8 times by 7 points or more which is really crazy to think. A&M’s variance is through the roof and I would really like to stay away unless I have a very strong opinion. I will say this, they get Vanderbilt this week who are off 2 straight covers with the last one being extremely misleading. I don’t like road chalk, but Vanderbilt also has a bigger game on deck against their in state rival Tennessee. Definitely a game I’ll circle and look at this week.
AUBURN –
The last team in the SEC West we will talk about and ironically were one of the favorites coming in. I faded them for a large play this past week against Georgia and it was a nice cover. Auburn’s problems all year have been the QB. They had some success with Shaun White, but White has been injured and they tried going back to Jeremy Johnson, but inserted White late in the game against Georgia to no avail. They are again a team that Vegas expected to rebound after loses or at least knew the public would think that way and they have gone 1-3 ATS following a loss ATS by 7+ poitns, and 0-1 following a win.
Moving Forward- We get another opportunity to fade Auburn this week against Idaho as 32.5 point favorites. What I really like about this scenario is the fact that Auburn is now all in on the Iron Bowl against Alabama at home. Nothing else matters at this point. Of course a win here locks up a bowl game, but it’s not a bowl game they want and they do not need to be impressive doing so. Huge look ahead spot for this team I don’t see them being very interested to play Idaho. I’ll definitely be locking up a play on this game at +33 where the line has moved. Idaho has a decent offense that has put up 27 or more points 6 times this season. I don’t see Auburn scoring in the 50’s the week before the Iron Bowl which is pretty much what they are going to need to do and Auburn is still juggling around their QB situation. You may want to wait until later in the week if this line keeps climbing.
