Rotation #519: NBA Wednesday OVER 210.5 in Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 9:30 ET - The total on Game 1 was about a half-dozen points higher than this at tipoff. The game easily stayed under the total and now there has been an over-adjustment in game two. Not that the teams combined to make only 29.6% of their threes in Game 1. Also, the teams combined to make just 40.9% of their field goals overall and there were only 17 combined free throws made in the game. The point is that all of these numbers are unusually low and I expect a much better shooting effort in Game 2. The combined scoring of the 2nd and 3rd quarters was 108 points which translates to a 216 point total. Coincidentally that was the range of the posted total in Game 1 and so you can see where I am going with this. Lets take advantage of the special value here and look for these teams to both shoot better here. There were only 10 times this season that the Pelicans scored 100 or less points. 9 of the 10 times that happened their next game totaled at least 216 points! The Thunder had 4 games in which they were held to 100 or less points, their next game totaled at least 231 points in the very next game 3 of 4 times. The only time it did not the next game totaled 210 points! This total is 210.5 and given the history these teams have when off a rare grinder of a game, I like the odds on this one playing out in a much different way. We'll ride the over here and look for a bit of a shootout in Game 2 of what should be a thrilling series, even without Williamson. OVER 210.5 in Oklahoma City

Rotation #4 NHL Wednesday Dallas Stars -175 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:30 ET - The Stars outshot the Knights in every single period of the Game 1 loss. What went wrong? Vegas was 2 for 2 on the power play and the goals were key. The first gave the Golden Knights a 1-0 lead. The 2nd came right after the Stars had cut a 2-0 deficit to 2-1. That made it 3-1 and Dallas just never could get the equalizer even though they battled hard throughout. Give Vegas credit as they got the early jump on Dallas and stole Game 1 on the road. However, there is a reason the Stars are priced as a higher favorite here as the odds makers and sharps are lining up on this one. It will be payback for Dallas. We can reduce the star rating on this play to avoid too big of a risk amount but I absolutely prefer the money line over the puck line and am confident Oettinger will bounce back after a tough game in goal, one of his worst starts of the season. Keep in mind, Oettinger and the Stars did drop the first game of every series last season and yet still almost made it to the Stanley Cup finals. The team that ended their run? These Golden Knights. Now, after dropping Game 1, the revenge payback starts here in what will be relentless effort from a desperate Dallas club on home ice! DALLAS -175

Rotation #955: MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 @ 6:40 ET - The Reds won 8 to 1 yesterday. However, since the Phillies lost B2B games to open up the season, they have now gone a PERFECT 7-0 when off a loss! Also, though Lodolo has great numbers early this season he has only made two starts and now take a closer look at those. Lodolo faced a White Sox team that has been awful this season and is the worst hitting club in the league. He then faced the Angels and allowed 7 hits in 6 innings. Though it was still a successful outing, Lodolo did allow a lot of hard contact! Many sharply hit balls for outs. So the value in this game is flying under the radar a bit. The Phillies have seen lot of Lodolo in recent years and he allowed 8 hits in 5 innings when he faced them in Cincinnati last season. Turnbull is off to a fantastic start for the Phillies this season. Unlike Lodolo, he has already made 4 starts. In 3 of the 4, including 1 against Cincinnati, he has not allowed a single earned run. I respect Lodolo but I also respect Turnbull and the fact is this Phillies team has the stronger lineup too. Stott has hit lefties well early this season even though he is a left-handed bat so he will likely be back in the lineup today after he and Marsh sat out yesterday. Stott actually has hit lefties well throughout his career. The Reds had been held to 3 or less runs in 5 of last 7 games before yesterday's loss. Philly, on the other hand, had scored at least 7 runs in 5 straight games and averaged 6 runs scored per game last 7 games prior to the loss yesterday. Even with Harper out, this Phillies team has the better lineup and this is a value spot to grab the better team especially after seeing the way Lodolo's last start truly played out as there was more than meets the eye by just glancing at a boxscore. PHILADELPHIA +105

Rotation #200021: English Premier League Wednesday OVER 2.5 -145 in Wolverhampton vs Bournemouth @ 2:45 ET - Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha both are expected to be available for the Wolves in this one. The hosts keep shipping too many goals but this is good news for them in terms of boosting their attack. Hee-chan was limited to 45 minutes last week but is ramping up and now Cunha is expected back after missing the match with Arsenal. Gary O'Neil was the manager at Bournemouth last season and now leads Wolverhampton. His Wolves already won the reverse fixture by a 2-1 count and now they are aiming to do the double over Bournemouth by taking this one as well. However, the issue for the Wolves is they have conceded at least a goal in 8 straight matches across all competitions and allowed an average of 2 goals during this stretch. The fact is, however, Bournemouth has not been any better in that department. They have allowed at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches and conceded an average of 2 goals in those 6 matches. These clubs are battling it out in the mid-table position and I would not be surprised, given the above numbers, to see a 2-2 type of match here and a sharing of the spoils. 6 of the last 7 matches for Bournemouth have totaled at least 3 goals and I have liked the aggressiveness on the attack that I have seen from them. Those 6 overs averaged 4 goals apiece! Andoni Iraola, O'Neil's replacement, has his Cherries playing competitive football but their penchant for high-scoring thrillers continues. I don't see that coming to an end here and expect at least a 2-1 type battle in this one. Wolverhampton is getting some guys back this week but Bournemouth continues to pressure opponents on the attack. The Wolves had 21 shots (7 on goal) in the 2-1 win back in October and and will again create plenty of chances here but Bournemouth is playing much better now on the attack than they were back then and that is why a 2-2 thriller could be in the cards here. OVER 2.5 -145 in Bournemouth

Rotation #206969: Romania Liga 1: Wednesday OVER 2.5 +103 in Sepsi vs FCSB @ 2:45 ET - FCSB has a couple of injuries - Phelipe and Chiriches - but that is actually adding some value to this total. We get the over 2.5 without laying any juice because of these injuries. FCSB still has plenty of depth plus these injuries essentially balance each other out. Phelipe is a midfielder and, in theory, this could impact the transition game on the attack but Chiriches is a central defender and is a veteran that was just lost for the season. This certainly could impact FCSB in front of their own goal. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals. The last meeting in Sepsi totaled 7 goals! Also, 2 of the other 3 overs (including most recent in Bucuresti) went over the total in the first half! Don't be surprised if this is another one of those here. FCSB is in great shape but still has not locked up the top spot in the league so they will push for the full 3 points in the table here and are favored on the road for a reason. However, Sepsi has scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight matches and has averaged 1.6 goals scored per match during this stretch! FCSB has only been shutout once in last 9 matches and in the other 8 they averaged 1.8 goals scored per match. Given all of the above I simply can not envision a clean sheet for either club. That said, what about the odds of a 1-1 draw? Well, FCSB has only 4 draws in last 19 road matches across all competitions. Sepsi has only 6 draws in last 30 matches! So you are talking about a 20% draw rate roughly. I like the odds of another thriller between these clubs and this one gets to at least a 2-1 final. OVER 2.5 +103 in Sepsi

Rotation #903: MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies -153 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 1:10 ET - The Phillies have now lost B2B games for the first time since their very first two games of the season. They should have Bryce Harper back for this game after he missed the first 3 games for paternity leave. Philadelphia will bounce back with Wheeler on the mound for this one. Don't let his 1-3 record fool you. Wheeler has been great this season! He has a 0.89 WHIP and a low ERA and has been piling up strikeouts. As for the Reds Martinez, he has a 4.76 ERA and has allowed 19 hits in 17 innings. By comparison, Wheeler has allowed 21 hits in 31 innings. The Phillies team batting average is 20 points higher than the Reds this season. Also, Martinez has struggled since moving into the starting rotation after first working long relief. Each of his last two starts were day games at home and he got roughed up in both. More of the same here and the road team rolls in this one. I don't want to get burned if the Phillies win by only a run so no run line for me but that is why a reduced unit play here on the money line is the way one can roll strong on this one. Lay it! PHILADELPHIA -153

Rotation #200037: English Premier League: Thursday OVER 3 -130 in Brighton & Hove vs Manchester City @ 3 ET - With Haaland scheduled to sit out this one for City, we get some line value with this total being held down at 3 goals. The fact is Haaland has not been playing well anyway in recent matches. Let him sit. There will be a strong effort from City here on the road to keep their hopes alive of finishing first. The big Arsenal win over Chelsea means Manchester City knows they need to win to keep pace. Brighton & Hove has had a disappointing stretch of play but they are still a different club when on their home pitch. I expect them to get on the board here and, of course, City is a sizable favorite here for a reason. That is why I can not see this match ending with anything less than 3 goals though I certainly am getting involved here with the expectation of 4 or more goals! City has scored 2.6 goals per match in their last 5 meetings with  Brighton & Hove. Also, Man City has scored 46 goals in last 17 road matches across all competitions. Brighton & Hove has struggled some recently but, as noted above, they can prove to be tougher on their home pitch. In league action this season, they have scored an average of 2 goals per match and have lost only twice in 15 matches! Look for a 3-2 or 3-1 type match here. It is no accident that City is favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line for this one even with Haaland slated to miss. The hosts play better at home but also can not stop a determined City attack that will be out to prove what they can do sans Haaland. OVER 3 -130 in Brighton & Hove 

Rotation #206961: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Thursday OVER 2.5 -120 in Universitatea Craiova vs CFR Cluj @ 2:45 ET - Since the regular season ended, Universitatea Craiova is the only club that has yet to have a draw. By the way, CFR Cluj has only one draw in their 5 matches since the end of the regular season. I like the odds on each club scoring here and I also like the odds on this one finding its way to at least a 2-1 final because there is a big push for each club to get the full 3 points in the table. Note that Universitatea Craiova has had 15 of last 17CF matches total at least 3 goals! The only ones that did not each totaled at least 2 goals! You can see why one should expect goals in this one! Also, CFR Cluj has both scored and conceded in 7 straight road matches! In those 7 away from home, CFR Cluj has seen those finals average nearly 4 goals apiece. With the home team normally dictating the pace I do expect the goals to fly here as CFR Cluj will have no choice but to try and attack and keep up in this one. CFR Cluj has a 5-1 loss and a 4-1 win in its two most recent road matches. More of the same here. OVER 2.5 -120 in Universitatea Craiova