FREE PLAY for 7/24

San Diego Padres -121

The Key: The Cubs can't be trusted with Edwin Jackson on the mound.  They are just 16-35 in the veteran right-hander's last 51 starts, 6-20 in his last 26 starts as an underdog of 1-10 in his last 11 starts versus NL West foes.  He has a 5.61 ERA on the season and an ugly 9.60 ERA over his last three starts.  He is 0-5 with a 6.95 ERA in nine career starts versus the Padres with his clubs losing each of his last eight starts against them.  San Diego's Tyson Ross has a 2.70 ERA on the season and a 1.35 ERA over his last three starts.  He should benefit from facing a Chicago club that isn't familiar with his stuff.  His only previous appearance against the Cubs came in relief with Oakland in 2010, yielding no hits over two scoreless innings at Wrigley Field.  The Padres are 5-1 in their last six versus NL Central opponents and 5-2 in Ross' last seven starts versus NL Central clubs.  Take San Diego.

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Thursday's MLB Free Pick  ---San Diego Padres -121---

This is a great spot to back the Padres. As bad as San Diego has been in 2014, the Cubs have been even worse and Chicago has been a free fall since trading away Samardzija and Hammel. The Padres won easily 8-3 yesterday and I like their chances of cashing in another comfortable win given today's pitching matchup.

San Diego will send out Tyson Ross, who despite a 8-10 record has a strong 2.70 ERA and 1.171 WHIP over 21 starts. Ross has been even better of late, posting a 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Chicago will counter with Edwin Jackson, who has been one of baseballs worst starters this season. Jackson is 5-10 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.563 WHIP over 20 starts and comes in with an awful 9.60 ERA and 1.800 WHIP over his last 3 starts. On top of that, Jackson is 0-5 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over 9 career starts (1-9 team record) against the Padres.

Key Trends - Jackson is 5-19 over the last 3 seasons against poor power teams who average 0.9 or less home runs per game and 3-17 in his last 20 starts following a start where he didn't walk a batter. San Diego is 5-1 in their last 6 against the NL Central and 4-1 in Ross' last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.

System - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SAN DIEGO) - poor power team - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game on the season, after scoring 8 runs or more are 233-130 (64%) over the last 5 seasons. BET THE PADRES -121!

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