Free Pick on San Diego Padres -

The Padres are showing great value at basically a pickem at home against the Cardinals. San Diego will be motivated to get a W after getting swept in Atlanta over the weekend. I like their chances given the Padres will be sending out Tyson Ross, who has a 1.89 ERA and 0.943 WHIP over 11 home starts and comes in with a red-hot 0.90 ERA and 1.000 WHIP over his last 3. The Cardinals will counter with Lance Lynn, who has an average 3.53 ERA and 1.392 WHIP over 9 road starts and a 5.73 ERA and 1.818 WHIP over 2 career starts against San Diego.

Padres are 19-8 against the money line in home games after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons, while the Cardinals are just 4-14 in their last 18 road games following a day off. 

There's also a solid system in play based on the results of both teams in their last game. Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after a loss by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 1 run or less are 62-31 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Padres. Take San Diego!

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