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VEGAS MISTAKES WEEK #3
Looking at games where Vegas missed by more than 2 TD’s and the total went over or under by 21+ points
- Arizona covered over UTEP by 21.5 points. UTEP had a ton of injuries I would look to fade Arizona if they get some inflated lines. Looks like they are 3 point under dogs against Utah for Friday night.
- UCLA vs. Memphis went over the total by 22 points. There could be some value on unders with both of these teams moving forward.
- Oklahoma State covered by 27.5 points over Pitt. This was a premium play of ours that we gave out and we were just flat out wrong as Oklahoma State averaged 9.39 yards per play. Pat Narduzzi’s defense had nothing left following the Penn State game.
- West Virginia did not cover by 19 points, but were 62 point favorites. They are one of the big 12 teams flying under the radar in my opinion. Week 1 they had a misleading loss to VA Tech and since t hen have been playing cupcakes. Watch out for their game off a bye at TCU on October 7th.
- Iowa State covered by 17 points over Akron. Another team with a really good young coach. I would nto fade Iowa State despite them getting a lot credit. Big 12 is just up this year and they are covering spreads with ease.
- Northern Illinois covered by 14.5 points and shocked Nebraska by winning outright as a 10.5 point dog on the road. Nebraska gave up two first quarter Interceptions returned for TD’s that changed this game right from the start. Otherwise Nebraska out gained NILL by 148 yards.
- Northern Colorado covered over Colorado by 18 points. Colorado finally gave up some points after being extremely lucky in their first few games.
- Wake Forest covered over Utah State by 20.5 points. They were also on last week’s list with a win over Boston College and you would think Vegas is going to push them up a bit in their power rankings making them a definite fade candidate. They open up as a 3 point road favorite at Appalachian State
- SMU and TCU game went over the total by 27.5 points. This game had plenty of offense with over 1,000 total yards.
- Wisconsin covered the spread by 20 points over BYU as BYU looked awful for another week. Wisconsin dominated the field position by 17.1 yards, they had just 9 possessions I the game and 7 of the 9 went into BYU territory with 5.43 points per trip. BYU -2 in turnover margin. This was out top play. I felt a spread of 16.5-17 was far too high for a home dog in a game where I knew there was not going to be a lot of plays/ possessions. Hard to stop a team when they have the ball on the 36 yard line to start each possession. They had the same problem the week before against Utah (36.4 average starting field position)
- Notre Dame was impressive in their 49-20 victory over Boston College as they covered the spread by 15 points.
- Minnesota covered the spread by 17.5 points in their win over Middle Tennessee.
- Rutgers covered their spread over Morgan State by 24 points as 41 point favorites. Morgan State has yet to score a point this season.
- North Carolina covered the spread by 19 points in their game against a very good Old Dominion school.
- Syracuse covered their game over Central Michigan by 16.5 points and another under hit with Syracuse despite their intentions of playing fast.
- Mercer covered the spread by 26 points over Auburn who was in a bit of a let down spot after being up to face Clemson and possibly their season hopes slip away they seemed to not be at the game mentally. Auburn goes on the road to face Missouri and should easily beat up on a bad team.
- Virginia Tech covers the spread by 20 points over East Carolina and the game went over the total by 20.5 points. I see value on the under in future Virginia Tech games possibly.
- Purdue covers the spread by 37.5 points and the total goes under by 37.5 points. Jeff Brohm has this team on fire right now and playing with a ton of confidence. Looking for them to really give Michigan issues as Michigan is only a 10 point road favorite.
- NC A&T covered their spread over Charlotte by 15.5 points and they also beat them by 4. Value backing Charlotte in the future?
- Toledo and Tulsa had a total of 74 and it went over the total by 31 points. I would expect some value playing Toledo on the under moving forward. This was also a play of ours that turned out to be a loser with Toledo despite their +4.1 yards per play margin.
- Idaho State covered and beat Nevada outright as Nevada struggled big time in this game, but I still see value on them moving forward although I wouldn’t want to back a team that had 7 fumbles in a game.
- Texas State covered by 14.5 points over App State, but App State did get the win.
- Miss State covered their spread over LSU by 37.5 points and were among the biggest winners of week #3. I don’t know if I can continue to back Miss State despite their domination of LSU as they outgained LSU by 195 yards in this game.
- Oregon cover their spread against Wyoming by 22.5 points as Wyoming really doesn’t look like a good team this year.
- Kentucky easily covered the spread by 16 points, and I’ll continue to look for spots to fade South Carolina if possible.
- California covered their spread by 18 points and the total went under by 25.5 points.
- Northwestern covered their spread by 21 points over Bowling Green after struggling in back to back weeks. They were on last week’s list as they lost big at Duke as favorites. What do they do? They come back strong and beat Bowling Green. Oddsmakers probably have to re-adjust their numbers on this team again.
- Kansas State vs. Vanderbilt went under the total by 27.5 points. Both teams struggled offensively with under 300 yards. Both well coached on the defensive side of the ball. I expect value on Vanderbilt as a dog especially this week as they host Alabama with a total of 43 they are 18.5 point under dogs at home. Reminds me of the BYU vs. Wisconsin game of course that did not turn out in our favor either.
- Penn State covered the spread by 18.5 points. They gave up 0 points in the game despite allowing over 300 yards of offense.
- Clemson covered the spread by 23 points, and one would think they deserve to be ranked #1 overall at this point and not Alabama having beat two top 20 teams already. They are getting respect from oddsmakers as 32.5 point favorites against Boston College. I expect them to take it easy this week maybe.
What teams were on the list in back to back weeks?
Wake Forest covered the spread by 24 last week and were on the list again covering by 20.5. They did have 588 yards of offense to go along with that defense so I expect Vegas to make a large adjustment. I’m not buying or selling.
Mississippi State covered big for the second week in a row and this one was shocking. LSU was -195 yards in their 37-7 loss to Miss State. Of course Miss State covered a week ago in misleading fashion of LA Tech. I would lean towards selling this team when they are a favorite again. This week they are road dogs at Georgia by 7 points.
Minnesota on the list again for back to back weeks. Their win was a bit misleading 34-3 despite just +113 yards. They get a bye this week and I will look to fade them moving forward.
When two teams from this list face off?
There were two games last week that fell into a situation where we would buy low and sell high. Baylor missed covering the spread 18.5 points, and Duke covered by 26 points. The line was inflated at 14.5 and we took it and covered by a half point, but the game was closer than the final indicated as Baylor had a -2 TO margin. Baylor is a team we will continue to look to back.
Syracuse was another team that missed covering the spread by double digits and they faced off against Central Michigan who covered by 21 points. What happened? Syracuse covered the spread by 16.5 points easily winning the game.
Who faces off this week?
Clemson will face Boston College as 32.5 point favorites. Take Boston College
App State will be a home dog of 3 points against Wake Forest who covered their spread by 20.5 points. Take App State
Virginia Tech covered the spread by 20 points scoring 61 points and will face Old Dominion who did not cover the spread by 19 points. This game gets slowed down quite a bit take Old Dominion + the points.
MISLEADING FINALS
- Boise State wins their game by 14 points, but were out gained in the game by 13 yards. New Mexico was down to their 3rd string QB in this game. Fade Boise State moving forward. They face Virginia as a 13.5 point favorite this week on Friday. Virginia just got done putting up 626 yards of offense on UCONN.
- Umass outgained Temple by 71 yards, but lost 29-21 as they were -1 in TO margin.
- App State wins their game over Texas State despite being outgained by 102 yards on the road. Signs of a veteran team, but I would be concerned moving forward and it makes me less likely to back them against Wake Forest.
- Fresno State in a tough travel spot coming back from Alabama hung with Washington only being outgained by 107 yards, but they lose on paper 48-16 despite being +1 in TO margin. They cover the spread by 3 points, but maybe Washington is not all that good and maybe Fresno is better. Washington had a punt return for a TD And held Fresno to many field goals.
- Alabama only outgained Colorado State by 96 yards in their 41-23 victory. They were +2 in turnover margin and have a very challenging game this week at Vanderbilt. I would expect that there will be sharp action on Vandy.
- Penn State was +5 in turnover margin this week against Georgia State. They will be 13.5 point road favorites in a dangerous game at Iowa.
- Idaho outgained Western Michigan by 52 yards, but lose 28-37.
- There is value on Middle Tennessee moving forward despite their 34-3 loss at Minnesota they were just -113 total yards. -2 TO margin and an interception was taken back for a TD. Their defense was very impressive in this game. They will play Bowling Greent his week.
- Cal won by 11 points despite being outgained by 17 yards. They continue that success as they were outgained by well over 100 yards against Weber State last week. They only outgained North Carolina in week 1 by 29 yards yet they sit 3-0.
- Nebraska lost to Northern Illinois and they played so poorly to start the week before at Oregon. I expect an adjustment to this team moving forward. They did outgain Northern Illinois by 171 yards int his game despite the 21-17 loss as the game started off with two pick six by Nebraska’s QB. Nebraska should get a confidence boost with Rutgers coming in this week.
- San Diego State won by 3 but they absolutely dominated Stanford in the box score. Outgaining them by 120 yards. Stanford could nto get off the field and only had 42 total plays int eh game. San Diego State was +3 in turnover margin.
- Florida’s red zone defense helped them in this game as they were -62 in yards in the game despite winning 26-20. They had just 4 trips inside Tennessee territory compared with 9 for Tennessee, but they held Tenn to 2.22 pts per trip.
- Sam Darnold has major improvements to make on his footwork. In a lot of ways USC got very lucky in this game. Including Sam Darnolds jump pass to get his team into field goal range. He’s due to have double digit interception season. Overall this was a sloppy game for both teams. USC had 9 trips into Texas Territory and came away with just 3 points per drive. Texas, had 6 trips into USC territory and only came away with 2.83 yards per drive. Sam Ehlinger made some mistakes as he threw 2 interceptions and had the key fumble at the end, but you could see him gaining confidence as this game went along. It will be interesting to see if he is named the starter moving forward. Overall I would bet that USC loses a game in conference play. Texas is a team that can get up for big games and I’ll look for more consistency before I go backing them. USC is a 16 point favorite at Cal this week which is probably too low. USC easily could have had a 21 point lead in the first quarter of this game against Texas. I still don’t trust Darnold the way he makes some lazy throws. Texas is off and will have a big game at Iowa State on the 28th.
