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Vegas Mistakes Week 8 College Football Season

October 26, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Vegas Mistakes Week #8 – 9 out of the 20 games were from the power 5.  Proving that there is line value in both power 5 and non-power 5 conference. 57% of the mistakes we have tracked this season through week’s 2-7 have been from the power 5 conference.

 

Missouri covered by 33 over Idaho.  This was our Friday commute podcast play.  Now 5-2 ATS on those plays this year!  4 of those wins have covered by 21+ points.  Missouri simply dominated this game holding Idaho to 278 yards and 3.76 yards per play while Missouri had 658 yards an over 10 yards per play.  Since Missouri’s bye they have looked awfully good in my opnion.  Although this does not prove, anything and I would still look to fade them in conference play.  They will face off against Uconn this week as 13 point road favorites.  Uconn beat them 9-6 in Missouri in 2015 and are playing better themselves.  Both teams won’t be looking ahead and are trying to get to a bowl game.

 

Arkansas State covered by 32 over Louisiana Lafayette as they outgained them by 300 yards and over 3 yards per play.  Arkansas State seems to do this every year where they enter conference play and just start blowing teams out.  However, they are on the road again this week at New Mexico.  Arkansas State has been on this list in back to back weeks so I would say Vegas might have increased their power rank quite a bit.  I will look to pass on that game just given Arkansas State’s previous success in conference play and the fact that their offense and defense are rolling now.

 

Marshall covered the spread by 26.5 over Middle Tennessee.  Marshall has been on this list 3 of the last 4 weeks.  I think the market has caught up on them.  The reality is that they just faced Charlotte, the worst team in the country and only won 14-3.  They faced Old Dominion who has a ton of injuries, and then Middle Tennessee playing without their QB, and their RB got hurt early in that game.  They come back home as 17 point favorites over Florida International who are playing with a lot of confidence themselves.  Marshall actually only outgained MTSU by 93 yards in that game, but were +2 in the TO margin.

 

Iowa State covered the spread by 25 points against the spread over Texas Tech.  This final is a bit misleading as Iowa State as 7 point dogs went on the road and beat down Texas Tech 31-13.  However, they only outgained Tech by 64 yards.  There was also a pick six in the game and now Iowa State has now covered the spread by 14+ three weeks in a row.  The problem is they face TCU now who I am also not high on.  They are 7 point dogs and there was a sharp move to 6.5.  I’d lean Iowa State, but I’m not sure I want to pay this much of a premium this week, but they may be just that good.

 

Pittsburgh covered the spread by 16.5 points college football against the spread over Duke.  We gave out Pitt +8 as a premium play this week to clients and they really took control of this game in the second half as they outgained Duke by 126 yards on their way to a 7 point victory.  Still I am less than impressed with this team, and I’d look to fade them this week as 5.5 point favorites and they just moved to just 3 point favorites at home against Virginia who we will talk about here next.  Duke on the other hand is a team you can’t just forget about.  I think they have been in a tough stretch of games however, and it won’t get easier this week against Virginia Tech where they are 15.5 point dogs.

 

Boston College covered the spread by 38 points over Virginia.  Virginia managed just 247 yards and 10 points with a miserable 3.63 yards per play.  Boston College’s offense simply dominated with 512 yards and 7.21 ypp and arguably looked as good as ever.  Their confidence from the Louisville game clearly carried over and they have been adjusted as a 2.5 point dog against Florida State this week.  Leaning towards fading Boston College this week on Friday night as Florida State is as desperate as any team and I still think they are well coached.

 

Troy covered the spread by 16.5 points against the spread over Georgia State.  Troy, of course was on the not cover the spread list last week so you see how quickly things can change for a team.  I almost used Troy in a teaser, but Georgia State had been playing above expectations so I couldn’t.  Troy actually outgained them by 150 yards in this one despite the -1 TO they still won by 24 points.  They will be 25.5 point favorites this week against Georgia Southern who just got blown out by Umass, but if you ask me I wouldn’t be fading Georgia Southern.  Troy does not have a look ahead spot so it will be interesting to see how they play this week.  It will be a pass for me although I see value on Georgia.

 

Umass covered the spread by 26.5 points over Georgia Southern.  Umass had two weeks to prepare for Georgia Southern and were desperate for a win so I was not surprised they came out with 670 yards and a 55-20 win.  Let’s not over react now as they will host Appalachian State who looked pretty average against Coastal Carolina this past week.  Umass is a 3.5 point home dog and I would lean towards App State.  It really seems like one game has changed that spread.  I’ll probably wait to see what the line does, but if I can get App State at -3 I’ll buy.

 

Arizona State covered the spread by 30 points against the spread over Utah in a shocking victory.  Arizona State is on this list in back to back weeks in very impressive upsets.  They were +3 TO margin and dominated field position by 14 yards which is very unlikely when you go up against a Utah football team.  In the game they only outgained Utah by 80 yards so there is nothing wrong with Utah’s defense which is a good sign.  Utah got their QB Tyler Huntley back and he just played awful after having not play for 2 games he threw 4 interceptions and passed for just 155 yards.  That was the difference in the game.  I’ll look to fade Arizona State this week as 3 point home dogs to USC who also falls under this list of having not covered the spread by 14+.  Utah moved from a 3 point dog to a 3.5 point favorite at Oregon this week.  I’m definitely going to have to dig more on that.

 

Miss State covered the spread by 24 over Kentucky as they won 45-7 in true blowout fashion.  However, they only outgained them by 179 yards in the game.  Miss State tends to have these games where they are able to blowout opponents at home, so it did not shock me.  I’ll be looking to fade Miss State however there was a 3 point sharp move to Miss State as a -1 point favorite against Texas A&M who has a significant home field advantage during night games. Kentucky is a 4.5 point favorite hosting Tennessee who just had their super bowl against Alabama and lost.  Their head coach Butch Jones has to be fired any day now you would think.  IT’s a must win game or at least being called that.  I’d have to see player quotes to see if they want to play for this guy or not, but most likely a pass for me.

 

Florida Atlantic covered the spread by 34.5 over North Texas.  FAU opened as a 7 point favorite and sharp movement pushed them to a 3 point favorite where they were an actual buy for me.  They just simply dominated and broke all kinds of records with a 69-31 beat down.  They had 804 yards and allowed 420.  Vegas clearly has to mark this team up they have been on this list 4 times this year.  Unfortunately, for us we missed the boat after being high on them in the pre-season.  We backed them in their only 2 ATS losses against Navy and Buffalo.  North Texas is an 11 point favorite at home against Old Dominion this week while is a 7 point favorite at Western Kentucky and you all know how I feel about Western Kentucky.

 

Utah State by 27.5 over UNLV who may have lost their QB Armani Rogers so keep an eye on that as he is a big part of that offense especially in the running game.  UNLV is a 19 point dog against Fresno this week.  Utah State is an 8 point dog against Boise State this week.

 

East Carolina by 21.5 over BYU as BYU was favored on the road.  I know BYU’s QB Tanner Mangum is not 100% and is playing through it, but it’s really strange to see BYU struggling this bad.  I have a bad feeling that is simply coaching at this point.  You can’t simply explain all the struggles they have had and for them to lose like that at East Carolina a team that is not very good.  They now have 7 losses, but still in bowl contention they are one of the few teams that have 13 games this year.  They are 14 point favorites against San Jose State, but I wouldn’t touch that game if you paid me.

 

Penn State by 21.5 over Michigan.  I really underestimated the power of the “white out.”  It really sounds stupid, but it really did have an impact in this game to start the game and to start the second half.  IF you take those two parts out of this game it’s very much a close game.  The problem was Michigan was forced into a passing game far too early.  This was my POD, and in my analysis I mentioned the advantage I felt Michigan had on the offensive and defensive lines and they simply could not show it.  The adrenaline Penn State got from their crowd was just amazing.  Now Penn State will be in a similar situation facing Ohio State off a bye and they are 6 point dogs.  I’ll be really interested to see where that line goes.  For me I see value in Penn State.  I think they are a team that can take advantage of Ohio State’s secondary with their receivers and tight end.  I also think if their defense is not on the field too much they can control Ohio State’s offense.  I most likely would have been on Penn State if this game was played a few weeks ago.  It’s probably going to be a pass for me considering Urban Meyer is very good off a bye and although they are have been playing well we still don’t know anything about this team as they haven’t faced anyone.

 

Notre Dame by 31 over USC.  I think this Notre Dame team is still a bit over rated.  I think they ran into a USC team that is just not very good playing in a conference that is just not very good.  USC also extremely banged up and Sam Darnold has lost all of the confidence he was playing with a year ago.  I also don’t know if their head coach is any good.  I’m not going to over react to Notre Dame’s recent success.  One thing we know is that they can run the ball and their defense is pretty good, but they were only +150 yards in that game they won at home 49-14 following a bye.  Now they get NC State who is off a bye and I just feel like NC State has been that team with value all year.  The line is already down to +7 from +8 and it’s a game I have already played before the line move.  I don’t know that I will give it out as a premium play to clients we will see where the line goes.

 

Fresno State by 30.5 over San Diego State.  San Diego State is on the not cover list 2 weeks in a row.  I’ll take a deeper look, but I think there is money to be made on the team in the future.  Against Hawaii, they’ll go on the road, but it’s a situation they are familiar with and have had a ton of success under Rocky Long whether it’s playing in the bowl game or during conference play.

 

Washington State by 19 over Colorado.  This game was played in terrible weather so value towards the over possibly with these teams moving forward.  I’m still looking to fade Washington State when the opportunity presents itself.  We have known for a while that Colorado was pretty bad this year, but still getting credit for what they did a season ago.  They open up as 3 point favorites against Cal, and I think that line is off maybe it should be a pk based on what we have seen in conference play Cal is the better team.  Washington State is a 3 point road favorite against Arizona.  Which is an interesting game considering what we have seen from Arizona’s QB Khalil Tate.  The guy has 780 yards rushing on the year and he just started 3 games and is 3-0 as a starter.

 

Seems like the oddsmaker’s can’t get the MAC right.

Northern Illinois covered the spread over Bowling Green by 17 points.

Ohio covered the spread over Kent by 28 points.

Central Michigan covered the spread by 44 points against the spread over Ball State.

 

 

After being on any list back to back weeks? Stay

 

Teams on this list multiple times for covering the spread 14+ – Taking away week 1

  • Utah State 3x (3 of last 5)
  • Florida Atlantic4x (3 of last 4)
  • Notre Dame 4x (3 of last 4 weeks – had a bye)
  • Iowa State 4x (3 weeks in a row)
  • Arizona State 3x (2 weeks in a row)
  • Marshall 3x (3 of last 4 weeks)
  • Ohio State 3x (3 of last 4 weeks – had a bye)
  • Wash State 2x (2 of last 3)
  • Nevada 2x (2 of last 3)
  • Boston College 2x (last 2 weeks)
  • Arkansas State 2x (Last 2 weeks)
  • Fresno State 2x (Last 2 weeks)

Teams on the list multiple times for not covering the spread 14+

  • UNLV 2x (L3 weeks)
  • Oregon 2x (L3 weeks)
  • Michigan 2x (L3 weeks)
  • Old Dominion 2x (L3 weeks)
  • Vanderbilt 3x (2 L3 weeks)
  • Louisville 3x (2 last 3 weeks)
  • SD State 2x (last 2 weeks)

 

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