This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our Thursday Free Play. The Padres are scuffling around, unable to take advantage of the slumping Dodgers in the National League West but they are just a game out of the final Wild Card spot. The loss last night dropped them to 28-17 at home and they come into tonight as the short home underdog and we will be on that value. Randy Vazquez is coming off a quality start against Texas and has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts and while he has one of the worst K:BB% in baseball, it is not a huge concern when he is at home as he has a 3.12 ERA at PETCO Park compared to a 4.57 ERA on the road. Arizona bounced back from a 1-0 loss on Tuesday as they went yard four times last night which accounted for seven of their eight runs and the offense has been admittedly good on the road. The pitching though has not as they are No. 25 in ERA and that brings in Eduardo Rodriguez who has been awful at home with a 6.32 ERA but has not been much better on the road with a 5.26 ERA which is No. 77 of 100 qualified starters. This is a good spot for the Padres to take this series before a weekend home series against the Phillies. Play (956) San Diego Padres

+$28,240 MLB run. It was a 2-1 Underdog Wednesday in MLB with the winners on the +131 Rays and +114 Angels and we roll that into Thursday. Matt has THREE Underdogs today, one early and a Double Play late. SWEEP IT!

This is a play on the ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. We are going against the Braves again after they finally came alive and while they send one of their aces to the hill, he is not like the ace of old but is being priced like it. The Braves are back to 11 games under .500 and their -2,338 money is ahead of only Colorado in all of baseball and we will continue to fade an average team priced like a contender. Spencer Strider has been slow to come back from his two injuries, the big one being an internal brace procedure to stabilize his UCL which was not Tommy John and he just does not seem right. His strikeouts are down with his season high of 13 coming against the Rockies and he is being priced like the old Strider. His 3.93 ERA is right in line with his 3.86 xERA so there looks to be no positive progression. The Athletics continue to have more success on the road than at home and that is playing into the number for sure but it is overadjusted based on the opponent. The offense has still held its own in Sacramento as they are No. 11 in OPS. JP Sears is pitching to a 4.22 xERA and has been hurt by only a couple of bad starts as he has allowed three runs or less in 13 of 18 starts and has allowed no runs over his last 11.2 innings. 10* (970) Athletics

This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Thursday Double Play. Washington is coming off a win on Wednesday as the offense got back going and has a chance to keep it going here. The road numbers continue to be better and we can take advantage of that. Michael Soroka is trying to resurrect his career which was at the top in 2019 and then injuries hit. The Braves let him go after 2023 and after a season with the White Sox, he is putting together a good season with the Nationals even though the top number of a 5.40 ERA does not show that. He is coming off a horrible outing in Boston which was an outlier because he was pitching well before that and the metrics show he is pitching to a 3.19 xERA to go along with a solid 70:17 K:BB ratio. St. Louis got off to a great start this season but has flattened out and the prices have not reflected that. Miles Mikolas had a great 2022 season with a 3.29 ERA in 32 starts but he has regressed each year and while he got off to a good start this season, it has gotten ugly as he has allowed six run or more in three of his last five starts to balloon his ERA to 5.26 and it is an indicator as he is pitching to an almost equal 5.25 ERA to go along with a miserable 10.6% K:BB%. 10* (953) Washington Nationals

This is a play on the NEW YORK METS (Game One) for our RL Afternoon Dominator. The Mets have gotten out of their slump and the offense has carried the 5-1 run by averaging 6.1 rpg. David Peterson had two rough starts against the Pirates and Phillies but bounced back with a great starts last time out against Milwaukee as he allowed only one run in 6.2 innings. He has been much better at home but could not have a better matchup on the road against an Orioles team that cannot hit lefties. Baltimore is dead last in baseball in slugging percentage at .323 while sitting No. 28 with just 17 home runs and No. 25 in strikeout percentage. The Orioles are nothing special at home at four games under .500 and are overpriced in this matchup. Charlie Morton has been pitching a lot better after a horrendous start to the season which was so bad that he got sent to the bullpen in May and has come back strong but has not faced many good offenses since coming back to the rotation. He catches a Mets offense that was abysmal during its recent skid but has caught fire again and Morton has not been much better at home. His home runs are down but the Mets 121 home runs are No. 6 in baseball. 10* (965) New York Mets -1.5 Runs (Game One)