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Alex Smart |
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| Alex Smart Sports - Consistent Long term winning results. Get the info the books do not want you to have. |
| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NCAA-F | Sep 01, 2017 Navy vs. Florida Atlantic |
Navy -12½ -110 at BMAKER |
in 11d |
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A lot has been made about Navy only returning 9 starters , but that is of no matter to me, as the recruiting class that Niumatalolo has on board,is more than capable of taking out lower tier opponents with ease via a triple option offense that is extremely hard to stop, when not having experienced it regularly ie ( Florida Atlantic). I expect Zach Abey The 6'2", 212-pound junior who after being thrown into his first game because of injury to the Middies starter struggled in his proverbial first kick at the cat. But going forward after that ugly effort he performed much better in the Armed Forces Bowl, rushing for 114 yards and passing for another 159 and looks primed to be even smoother this season, behind a deep crew of powerful backs. On defense, Navy has 6 returning starters and look primed for a stellar season. I know a lot has been made about Lane Kiffin the new coach of Florida Atlantic, but he will have some monumental problems trying to reformulate a FAU front four that was disastrous last season, allowing close to 3,000 rushing yards and 37 scores. Early on in this season, Im betting Lanes D is not ready for what's coming their way. I'm projecting that Navy puts 28 or more points on the board-FLA ATLANTIC is 0-10 ATS L/10 when they allow 28 or more points. A home team Florida Atlantic - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 6-30 ATS dating back 25 seasons.FLA ATLANTIC is also 0-6 ATS L/6 in home lined games. Play on Navy to cover |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 20, 2017 Dodgers vs Tigers |
UNDER 9½ -120 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The Dodgers will start right-hander Kenta Maeda (11-4, 3.76 ERA) on Sunday in their final interleague game vs the Detroit Tigers. He has been solid in his L/3 starts garnering a sting 2.08 ERA allowing just 4 ERS in just under 18 innings of work. Meanwhile, Detroit counters with Right-hander Justin Verlander (8-8, 4.11). The veteran hurler owns a 3-2 record along with a very stable 2.72 ERA in seven starts since the All-Star break.VERLANDER is 12-2 UNDER L/14 vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season, dating back to last season with a combined average of just 6.3 rpg going on the scoreboard. I am betting both these pitchers do decently today and for the combined score to remain on the low side of the Total. Under is 8-2 in Dodgers last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 3-1-1 in Maedas last 5 interleague starts.Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. National League West.Under is 17-8-2 in Verlanders last 27 home starts. Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit. The Tigers are 0-17 UNDER L/17 as a dog when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed at least the first two runs of the game and never led and it is after the All-Star break. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 20, 2017 Indians vs Royals |
Royals +134 at GTBets |
Won $134 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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KCs starter Jason Hammel (5-9, 4.74 ERA) will start the series finale for the Royals this afternoon knowing he has pitched well against the Indians this season, going 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in two starts. He has limited them a .178 batting average. After beginning the season, 1-6 with a 6.18 ERA, Hammel is 4-3 with a 3.89 ERA since June. Meanwhile, Danny Salazar the Indians starter, despite of pitching well of late is is 0-2 with a 4.63 ERA over 11 2/3 innings against the Royals this year.Indians are also just 1-4 in Salazars last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. I know the Indians are hot, but I'm betting on the Royals getting the win here on a value line. KANSAS CITY is 25-11 L/36 against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season .KANSAS CITY is 33-24 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season.Royals are 23-9 in their last 32 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Royals - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good starter (ERA 4.20 or less) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL are 37-18 for a 67% underdog conversion rate for bettors. Play on the KC Royals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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WNBA | Aug 20, 2017 Washington Mystics vs Indiana Fever |
UNDER 159½ -105 |
Lost $105.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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No comment |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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WNBA | Aug 20, 2017 Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty |
UNDER 157½ -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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No comment |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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WNBA | Aug 20, 2017 Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun |
UNDER 171 -105 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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No comment |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFLX | Aug 20, 2017 Saints vs Chargers |
Chargers -2½ -130 at 5Dimes |
Lost $130.0 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
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New Orleans is 0-10 ATS L/10 preseason games, as the teams coaching staff just go through the motions as they treat each exhibition game like a scrimage opportunity. The loss last week (20-14) to lowly Cleveland solidified their objectives as being disinterested to an extent. Meanwhile, the Chargers were clobbered by a 48-17 count in a loss to Seattle and after that embarrassing effort will need some redemption here, so that some semblance of competitiveness can take hold in the dressing room and field. I know its just preseason, but I expect for a red faced Chargers team to come out here with a proverbial slight chip on their shoulders and get us the cover. Play on the Chargers to cover |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 18 years. I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes. My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigous event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%! I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled. These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections. |
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