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Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports - Consistent Long term winning results. Get the info the books do not want you to have.
Alex Smart Sports- CFL Totals Smash (ESPNEWS)- Sat Jue 24

The Edmonton Eskimos visit the BC Lions  in a early season key Western Division showdown this Saturday. Which side of the Total will the combined score fall on? Your 100% Guaranteed answer is just a few clicks away. Tests a documented long term  20-12 63% CFL run includes a 3-1 75% Totals conversion rate!

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 23, 2017
Blue Jays vs Royals
Royals
+130 at GTBets
Won
$130
Play Type: Premium

Blue Jays LH J.A. Happ (2-4, 4.26 ERA) vs. Royals RH Jake Junis (2-1, 5.56)

The Blue Jays offense is a little banged up at the moment with key contributors Donaldson and Pearce at less than 100% or in the dugout tonight.  The Kansas Royals might be underdogs here , but must not be disrespected as they  have won nine of 11 contests to move within one game of .500.  Meanwhile, the Jays, are one game under .500 on the season, at 35-36 and in their L/9 attempts trying to even their season record , have fallen flat on their faces losing 9 straight times by a overall 73-24 count. On paper the pitching situation looks like it favors the Blue Jays, but veteran knuckelballer Happ is anything but a sure bet, and could easily get rocked tonight by Salavador Perez and company.Happ is 2-2 with a 5.96 ERA in four starts against the Royals.

Blue Jays are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Blue Jays are 2-8 in Happs last 10 starts during game 1 of a series.Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 games following an off day.Blue Jays are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Kansas City.

KANSAS CITY is 17-5 L/22 against the money line in home games after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base  and is 16-8 L/24 against the money line in home games against AL East opponents.TORONTO is 4-10  against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more, which happened in a 11-4 loss to Texas last time out. TORONTO is 13-25  38 against the money line in road games against AL Central opponents. 

Play on the KC Royals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 23, 2017
Astros vs Mariners
Mariners
-111 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Astros RH Joe Musgrove (4-6, 5.09 ERA) vs. Mariners RH Felix Hernandez (2-2, 4.73)

Houstons starter Musgrove, has dropped back-to-back starts since returning from a shoulder injury.Astros manager A.J. Hinch said he doesn't consider Musgrove to be 100 percent . QUOTE: "One step closer to that, obviously," Hinch told the Houston Chronicle. "Fully back, to me, is extending him north of 100 pitches."  END QUOTE. Meawhile, Felix Hernandez will make his first start since, experiencing alot of shoulder pain in the beginning of the season. After rehab, he has said to the media, that he feels no pain is all right now, which is a good thing for Seattle Mariners backers. King Hernandez, the Mariners' career leader in wins  with a (156), innings (2,442 1/3), strikeouts (2,286) and starts (364), has won both his appearances at home this season and gives his team in edge in this opening series game. I know the Astros are hot, but , after a 4  game road sweep of the As, may enter this game on tired legs in a natural letdown state and vulnerable to a down performance. Seattle has won 5 straight and must not be underestimated here at home, where they own a 24-13 record and average 5.3 rpg.

SEATTLE is 20-7 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season and Hernandez is  31-14 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 Astros- allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more are just 15-45 in the followup game going back 20 seasons. ( note: Houston won yesterday 12 -9 vs the As) 

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the moneyline  1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 23, 2017
A's vs White Sox
OVER 10 -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

Athletics RH Jharel Cotton (4-7, 5.40 ERA) vs. White Sox RH Mike Pelfrey (3-5, 3.56)

Right-hander Mike Pelfrey (3-5, 3.56 ERA) goes to the hill to face a As team off a 12-9 loss yesterday. In four career appearances vs the As, all starts, Pelfrey is 0-4 along with a nasty looking 7.97 ERA. He has surrendered 18 earned runs and 32 hits in 20 1/3 innings of sub par work. Meanwhile, Jharel Cotton faces the a White Sox team off a 9-0 victory yesterday vs the Twins. Cotton owns a 6.23 ERA in his L/3 starts, and almost always seems on edge of disaster when he takes to the hill of late. Yes I know he had quality start in his last outing, but he hs seen 5 of his L/6 starts after a quality outing eclipse the number.Note: Cotton has surrendered 12 of his 13 home runs in his last seven outings.

Over is 5-0-1 in Athletics last 6 road games.Over is 5-0 in Athletics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 5-0-1 in Athletics last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 vs. American League West.Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 during game 1 of a series.Over is 11-4 in White Sox last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 23, 2017
Cubs vs Marlins
Cubs
-120 at betonline
Lost
$120.0
Play Type: Premium

Cubs RH John Lackey (5-7, 4.98 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Jose Urena (5-2, 3.64)

Lackey Pittsburgh's starter held the Pirates to one run and two hits over six innings on Sunday to earn his first win since May 16 He has had sme difficulties, but is a veteran hurler who must never be underestimated. Meanwhile, the Marlins starter Urena despite of pitching well of late and off a quality start, has seldom been reliable for his teams chances at a win after a quality effort , as is evident by the  Marlins  0-9 record in Urenas last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

The Cubs revamped lineup exploded yesterday and  took the opener 11-1  vs the Marlins, and I now expect they will use the momentum of that game and use it to their advantage today to get another win. The Marlins bullpen was horrendosu yesterday,which sets up some long term trends that must not be ignored.

Marlins are 2-7 in Urenas last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Marlins are 4-11 in Urenas last 15 home starts.Cubs are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.Cubs are 7-3 in Lackeys last 10 road starts.

MIAMI is 8-20 L/28 against the money line in home games after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher like the Marlins  - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are 7-38 in their follow up game dating back 20 seasons, for a go against conversion rate of 85 % for bettors. 

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 23, 2017
Reds vs Nationals
OVER 9 -107 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 Reds RH Luis Castillo (No Record) vs. Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (8-2, 3.28 ERA)

Tonights pitching matchup will see Nationals  right-hander Stephen Strasburg (8-2, 3.28) take a trip to the hill to face  another right-hander Luis Castillo,  will be making his major league debut for Reds. Castillo is coming from Double-A Pensacola, where he was 4-4 with a 2.58 ERA in 14 starts and is getting a start vs a side that could easily light him up in a big way. Washington has scored 5.9 rpg vs righty starters  and accumulated 86 HRS this season and have battled .289 at home. Meanwhile, Strasburg has been very average in his own backyard  as is evident by a  4.15 ERA in six starts at home this year.Strasburg owns a  4.35 ERA in six starts in his career against the Reds, having allowed 28 hits and 13 walks in 31 innings of sub par work. The Reds have done their best offensive work vs righty starters this season scoring an average of 5.2 rpg while clobbering 72 HRS. 

Looking at both offenses and the pitching matchups, I feel we have a weak total to bet into , favoring an over bet. 

Over is 9-1-2 in Reds last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 road games.Over is 8-2 in Nationals last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 11-2 in Nationals last 13 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.Over is 5-1 in Strasburgs last 6 starts vs. Reds.Over is 6-1 in Strasburgs last 7 starts vs. National League Central.

STRASBURG is 13-4 OVER L/17 vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse dating back to last season, with a combined average of 10.1 rpg scored.STRASBURG is 14-4 OVER   in home games dating back to last season with a combined average of 10 rpg going on the board.

CINCINNATI is 15-3 OVER as an underdog of +150 or more this season with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. CINCINNATI is 16-4 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season with a combined average of 11.2 rpg getting scored.CINCINNATI is 17-2 OVER  vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 12.9 rpg scored. 

Play OVER 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 23, 2017
Pirates vs Cardinals
Cardinals
-117 at BMaker
Lost
$117.0
Play Type: Premium

Pirates RH Jameson Taillon (3-2, 3.38 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Adam Wainwright (7-5, 5.75)

Veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright (7-5, 5.75) i has some problems of late, but  Wainwright is 5-1 with a 2.88 ERA in seven home starts and does his best work in front of the home town fans. Pittsburgh has batted just .246 on the road this season, and lostt 22 of 35 way games. Meanwhile, Jameson Taillon (3-2, 3.38) a guy that been through alot this season, ( testicular cancer) is  off a game where he gave up eight hits and four runs Sunday in five innings of a 7-1 defeat against the Chicago Cubs and once again looks like fade material vs a Cards side trying to shake off an embarrassing loss to the lowly Philadelphia Phillies last time out by a 5-1 count. 

Meanwhile, the Pirates are off two straight losses to the Brewers , and now in a letdown situation  now go against a team that has swept 2 straight 3 game series against them.

WAINWRIGHTs team  is 25-9 L/34 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL).PITTSBURGH is 1-11 L/12 against the money line revenging 2 straight one run losses against opponent.

Pirates are 9-21 in their last 30 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Pirates are 4-9 in their last 13 during game 1 of a series.Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 4-0 in Wainwrights last 4 starts vs. Pirates.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher Pirates  - after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less against opponent after a loss by 4 runs or more are 44-109 dating back 20 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 71% for bettors.

Play on the St.Louis Cardinals to win on the moneyline 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jun 23, 2017
Rockies vs Dodgers
Rockies
+203 at betonline
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Free

Freeland the Rockies starter tonight against the LA Dodgers in game 1 of this series has emerged as the  ace of the rotation in his first major league season, going 8-4 with a 3.42 ERA, and must be respected here in this spot as this big an underdog.Freeland faced the Dodgers twice in April, going 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA, and the Rockies won both games. I know the LA Dodgers are hot  winning 7 straight, after a 4 game sweep of the NYMets , but the Rockies are no pushovers, and teams off a 4 game sweep have in the past shown a tendency to have let downs, in the first game of their next series. Meanwhile, the Dodgers will send Alex Wood (7-0, 1.90) to the hill to face the Rockies Friday.Wood has made seven appearances against the Rockies, with a 3-2 record and a bloated 5.59 ERA. Wood is admitedly hot, but his team  is just is 4-14 against the money line in his career after 3 or more consecutive wins and is still vulnerable to getting lit up vs a Rockies side cn be offensively explosive. Colorado is  10-3  against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season.

COLORADO is 15-9 L/24 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.FREELAND is 8-2 L/10 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.

MLB Road teams like the Rockies - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 3 starts are 34-19 for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the moneyline.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline 

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jun 23, 2017
Phoenix Mercury vs Seattle Storm
UNDER 162½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

My WNBA  Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
WNBA  |  Jun 23, 2017
Washington Mystics vs Minnesota Lynx
UNDER 164½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

My WNBA  Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals.

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection 

Matchup Selection W/L
CFL  |  Jun 23, 2017
Calgary vs Ottawa
UNDER 55 -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Ottawa's offense, is going through a change this year at the starting QB position, as Henry Burris retires and is replaced with Trevor Harris,  The  RedBlacks will also see two of four 1000 yard receivers depart, which will see them replaced with two younger WRs which will result in  ,  the teams offense taking some time to jell. Tonight against a revenge minded Calgary group that they beat for the Grey Cup, a concerted effort to slow the Stamps down, and take away their flow will result  in a game  Im expecting will see a combined score that remains on the low side of the number.

My own projections estimate that this line is a full FG higher than it should be, giving us an edge with an under wager.

Calgary in their L/7 road games with a total of 49.5 to 56 have seen an average combined score of 51.6 ppg go on the board. CALGARY is 13-2 UNDER  L/15 in June games with a combined average of 45.9 points per game going on the scoreboard. Ottawa in their L/32 games with a line of 3 to +3 has seen a combined average score of 48.3 ppg go on the scoreboard.OTTAWA in their L/12  home games in the first month of the season have seen a  combined average of 51.5 ppg go on the board. 

Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.