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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Oregon vs Fresno State
Fresno State
-2 -110 at betonline
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA PLAY ON 10* Fresno State -2 over Oregon, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - One CBS Sports Network

This will be the first time this year that the Ducks have had to leave the state of Oregon.  They have played 11 games thus far with 8 being on their home court and 3 coming down the road in Portland.  Even with the favorable schedule the Ducks still have 3 losses on the season.  One of those setbacks came on their home court to Boise State, a team from the same conference as Fresno (Mountain West), and a team we rate almost equal to the Bulldogs.  Oregon is a far cry from the team  that made the Final 4 last year and 6 of their top 7 players have moved on.  Their only top 7 returner is guard Peyton Pritchard and he is paired with 4 new starters, 3 of whom are transfers.  They are still try to mesh as a team.  They are 0-3 vs top 100 teams and their highest rated win came in OT vs DePaul.  And remember, they haven’t played a road game yet are still struggling.  This is a huge home game for a very solid Fresno team.  They’ve been looking forward to this one as they rarely get to host a “Power 5” type team, to use a football reference.  Their last was back in 2015 when California came to town.  The Bulldogs are 9-2 on the season and one of the more experienced teams in the country with 5 upperclassmen in their top 6 and they shoot the ball very well with a 57% eFG rate (22nd in the nation).  They are tough to guard as they have 5 players averaging at least 10 PPG.  They could be without one of those players (Hopkins) who has a back injury but they are deep & experienced enough to get by without him here.  This Fresno team has won 27 of their last 29 home games and covered 19 of their last 26 at home.  Oregon was one of the best teams in the nation and topped Fresno at home last year.  The Bulldogs now return the favor vs an Oregon team that is still finding their way and working on their team chemistry with a slew of new faces.  If they’ve been inconsistent at home, we can’t imagine they’ll be efficient in their first road game.  Take Fresno.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Detroit vs Michigan
Detroit
+19½ -115 at betonline
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Free

ASA has CASHED IN with 6 of their last 8 CBB Top Plays (75%) and they set you up with another on Saturday.  This is a WATCH & WIN spot on National TV.  Purchase their 10* CBB WATCH IN WIN BEST BET, then sit back and enjoy...

ASA PLAY ON Detroit +19.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 12 PM ET

After a brutal slate of 5 straight games vs top notch competition, we expect Michigan to exhale so to speak and have a letdown here.  The Wolverines have played North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio State, UCLA, and Texas leading into this one.  They are coming off a huge upset win @ Texas and we just don’t see them being at their peak physically or mentally in this game.  There is a good chance Michigan will be without top scorer and rebounder Mo Wagner in this one after he injured his ankle @ Texas.  Head coach John Beilein said Wagner is not anywhere near 100% and they will make a decision at game time.  Don’t be surprised if he sits with much bigger games on the horizon.  This game is at the Little Caesars Center, the brand new home of the Detroit Pistons.  The Detroit players have been looking forward to this game since the season tipped over a month ago.  Four of the five Titan starters are from Michigan and many had aspirations of playing for the Wolverines.  The only non-Michigan bred starter is Kameron Chatman who transferred to Detroit after playing 2 years at Michigan.  On top of that, Detroit’s head coach, Bacari Alexander, was an assistant at Michigan under Beilein from 2010 – 2016.  He knows Michigan’s intricate offensive system as well as anyone giving Detroit an inside advantage here.  It will be tough for Michigan to cover this huge number because Detroit can score.  They average almost 90 PPG and have 5 guys averaging at least 10 PPG.  This sets up as a very dangerous game for the Wolves facing an opponent who is viewing this as their “game of the year”.  Too many points here in a game we feel will be much tighter than the number. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 16, 2017
Indiana State vs Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky
-10 -110 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

ASA PLAY ON 8* Western Kentucky -10 over Indiana State, Saturday at 12 PM ET

This Western Kentucky team is much better than their 6-4 record might indicate.  They’ve already beaten two top 30 teams (Purdue & SMU) and they gave #1 Villanova all they could handle in an 8 points loss – Villanova’s closest win this season.  The Hilltoppers will be properly motivated here coming off back to back losses.  They lost @ Ohio by 5 last weekend and then lost by 1-point @ Wisconsin on Wednesday.  WKU is just happy to be back at home as they haven’t played on their home court in 2 weeks.  They are 4-1 here this year with an opening season loss to a very solid Missouri State team to go along with 4 double digit wins.  Indiana State shocked Indiana to open the season but have since gone just 4-5.  Their win over the Hoosiers to open the season was impressive, however they caught a young IU team at a perfect time with a new system and new coach.  Since the Indiana win, the Sycamores have played 4 games away from home (1 true away & 3 neutral) and they are 0-4 in those games.  Their four wins besides IU came against Indianapolis, Missouri St Louis, Air Force, and UWGB – all ranked 260th or lower.  Western KY will be the highest ranked team ISU has played since mid November when the played and lost big to both Auburn and Old Dominion.  The Toppers have a number of D1 transfers (from Kansas & Virginia among others) that are high level players.   They are meshing very well early on, thus the upsets over very good teams.  They shoot the 3 very well at 43% ranking them 6th nationally in that category.  WKU also is very athletic defensively and they create turnovers on 22% of their opponents offensive possessions which is not a good match up for an ISU team that turns the ball over 21% of the time.  They are very tough to guard with 6 players averaging double digits in scoring.  Off two losses this becomes a huge home game for WKU and we like them to roll to a big win.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 16, 2017
Chargers vs Chiefs
UNDER 46½ -108 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 46.5 Points - LA Chargers @ Kansas City, Saturday at 8:25 PM ET - AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR

This one is essentially a battle for the AFC West Division Title.  They are tied atop the division with 7-6 records.  KC won the first game @ LA so a win here by the Chiefs would all but lock up the division.  A Charger win would make the last two weeks very interesting.  These teams know each other very well and this will be a playoff atmosphere.  We think that favors the defenses.  The Charger defense has been simply lights out as of late.  Over their last 9 games this defense has allowed just 14 PPG.  Because of that defense, the Chargers have stayed UNDER the total in 7 of their last 8 games.  The KC defense has been up and down this season but at home, they’ve been very solid allowing just 18 PPG.  They have not allowed a single opponent to top 20 points this year here at Arrowhead Stadium.  Offensively, the Chiefs have gone in the tank during their 8 game freefall in which they have a 2-6 record.  If you take out their two games vs Oakland, who ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency, this KC offense has averaged just 18 PPG over their 8 game swoon.  Taking KC UNDER at home has been a definite money maker.  They are 45-24-2 to the UNDER in home games since 2009.  That’s the highest percentage of UNDERS for a home team in the NFL during that stretch.  These two put up just 34 points in their first meeting (24-10 Chiefs win) with neither team topping 330 total yards.  14 of the last 20 meetings between these two here in Kansas City have failed to top 45 points.  We like the UNDER.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 16, 2017
Bears vs Lions
OVER 44 -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44 Points - Chicago @ Detroit, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - NFC North Total of the Month

These two met in Chicago back in October and the Lions won 27-24 totaling 51 points.  It could have been worse as the two combined for 38 in the first half alone before slowing down to just 13 in the 2nd stanza.  Both offenses were on point with the Bears rolling up 398 yards including 222 on the ground.  The Lions put up 352 yards with 299 coming from Stafford through the air.  That was really Chicago’s best offensive performance since Trubisky took over at QB.  That was until last week when the Bears put up 33 points and Trubisky had 271 yards passing on a very solid Cincy defense.  Facing a Detroit defense that ranks 27th in total defense and YPP defense, we expect the Chicago offense to look good again for the 2nd straight week.  Detroit topped Tampa 24-21 last week but the Lions rolled offensively with over 430 yards of total offense so their scoring numbers (24) probably should have been even higher.  They rank 5th in the NFL at 26 PPG and the Lions have scored at least 20 points in every game but 2 this year and those games were against two of the top defenses in the NFL (Minnesota & Pittsburgh).  At home in the controlled climate they have been even better scoring at least 20 points in 11 of their last 13 dating back to last season.  Detroit will score here and Chicago looks like they’ve turned the corner offensively and had earlier success vs this defense as well.  8 of the last 11 meetings between these two here in Detroit have reached at least 44 points.  This one does as well.  Take the OVER.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 16, 2017
Middle Tennessee State vs Arkansas State
OVER 61½ -105 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

#209/210 ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER – Middle Tennessee State vs Arkansas State, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET – CAMELLIA BOWL - Two high potent offenses facing off here should send this well OVER the total. Arkansas State has been an offensive juggernaut all season long averaging 38.5 PPG on nearly 500 YPG. They have put up at least 30 points in 13 of their last 17 games dating back to last season. They have a top notch QB in Justice Hansen, a transfer from Oklahoma, who has 3,600 yards passing and 34 TD’s this year. Hansen has led this offense to more than 400 total yards in 9 of their 11 games this season. Another positive for the OVER here is when this team scores, they score fast. The Red Wolves are an up tempo team who had 66 scoring drives this year of which 47% of those took 2:00 minutes or less! Only 3 of those 66 scoring drives have lasted more than 4:00 minutes! Middle Tennessee State’s offensive numbers for the season are not indicative of how this team is currently constructed. That’s because their starting QB Stockstill missed 6 games mid-season due to an injury. Since he’s been back (4 games) the Blue Raiders have scored 30, 35, 38, and 41 points. With Stockstill in the line up this offense averaged 30 PPG. Without him they put up just 19 PPG. Both defenses are average at best and when facing good offenses, both struggled. The weather looks perfect in Montgomery, AL on Saturday night with game time temps in the 40’s, no precipitation, and zero wind in the forecast. Two top notch mid major QB’s put on a show in this one as this flies way OVER the number.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 16, 2017
Oregon vs Boise State
Oregon
-7 -105 at BMaker
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon Ducks (-) over Boise State Broncos, Saturday at 3:30 ET: Game #205

Ducks RB Royce Freeman is not expected to play here but Oregon has a pair of running backs, senior Kani Benoit and junior Tony Brooks-James, that combined for over 1,000 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns this season. The big key here is having healthy QB Justin Herbert back in action. Oregon was only 1-4 (and averaged only 15 points) in the games he missed this season (broken collarbone). However, in the games in which Herbert started (including the last 2 of the season), the Ducks went 6-1 while averaging 51.2 points per game! In Boise State's last two games away from home the Broncos allowed an average of 320.5 passing yards per game. Herbert, other than the Cal game in which he got hurt, averaged 277.3 passing yards per game. Herbert finished the season with a ratio of 13 TDs against only 4 INTs. The sophomore now has 32 TDs against only 7 INTs in his two years. The Ducks players (after Willie Taggart left for Florida State) lobbied for co-offensive coordinator Mario Cristobal to get the job. Shortly after being named interim head coach, Cristobal ended up getting the interim tag lifted and signing a 5-year contract. He has the support of the Ducks players and this team is fired up to have a strong effort to head into a new era at Oregon on the right foot! On the season, the Ducks faced a tougher schedule overall than the Broncos did. With that said, though it may seem surprising to see 10-3 Boise State as a sizable dog here against a 7-5 Oregon team, it is certainly no mistake! The fact is that the Broncos are on a 3-10 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and that includes 2-4 ATS this season! That pales in comparison to Oregon's mark of 6-1 SU (and 5-2 ATS) as a favorite this season. Also, when playing with at least 2 weeks of rest between games, the Ducks have a long-term record of 27-13 ATS! The Broncos only managed an average of 102 rushing yards per game their last 3 games with only 3.1 yards per carry. With Boise State unable to establish the run here, they will be forced to pass and the Ducks defense has shown tremendous improvement this season. Oregon has allowed only 158.7 passing yards per game their last 3 games and, with a healthy Herbert under center, the Ducks are peaking at the right time! Lay the points here with Oregon Saturday afternoon.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 17, 2017
Dolphins vs Bills
OVER 39 -115
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 39 Points - Miami @ Buffalo, Sunday a 1:00 PM ET

This number is set too low in our opinion.  Most likely an overreaction to the Indy – Buffalo game last weekend that ended 13-7 but was played in blizzard like conditions.  This week the weather looks fine with temps in the 20’s but very little wind which is key.  Also no precipitation in the forecast.  It may also be set too low based on a Miami defense that shut down New England on Monday Night holding the Pats to 20 points.  However, that effort does not a great defense make.  If you look back at the recent performance of the Miami defense it’s been very poor.  Throw out their game vs Denver as the Broncos can’t score on anyone right now, and this defense has allowed 35, 30, 45, 27, 40 and 28 points in their previous 6 leading into their games vs Denver and New England.  Buffalo’s offense hasn’t put up a ton of points recently but they’ve been facing solid defenses over the last 5 weeks with the exception of Indy and again that was played in a blizzard.  Tyrod Taylor gets the start here and we expect the Bills to look much better offensively.  Miami is simply a better offense with Cutler at the helm.  They’ve now scored 20 or more in 7 of their last 9 games.  The Fins put up 27 on a New England defense last Monday that hadn’t allowed any of their previous 8 opponents to top 17 points.  This AFC East rivalry has been high scoring as of late with the last 4 games totaling 65, 53, 50, and 55 points.  These two have not had a total set in the 30’s since the 2010 season.  We take the OVER here.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 17, 2017
Jets vs Saints
UNDER 46½ -108
Play Type: Premium

We will play UNDER 46.5 in the NY Jets at New Orleans Saints game, 1PM ET - The Saints are in a sandwich game here having just played a HUGE game against a Division rival (loss) in Atlanta AND they face them again next week. We expect a "just win" attitude here versus the Jets and a conservative game plan throughout. The Jets lost starting QB McCown last week who was really playing well. With him out of the lineup against the Broncos last week the Jets managed just 100 yards of total offense. QB Bryce Petty replaced McCown and promptly went 2 of 9 for 14 yards. That means a heavy dose of the running game here by New York which is their best chance for beating the Saints. New Orleans isn't great at stopping the run either as they rank 20th in rushing yards allowed per game this season.  The Jets defense has played well of late by holding 3 of their last four opponents to 300 or less total yards, but like the Saints, they are vulnerable against the run ranking 21st. New Orleans is 4th in rushing this year and even if Kamara isn't 100% they still have Ingram. Staying with our rushing theme, both of these teams are in the top half of the league in rushing attempts which clearly helps UNDER bettors. Lastly, the Saints are 27th in pace of play while the Jets are 31st. The Jets are really going to struggle to score here and we don't see New Orleans getting to 35+. The bet is UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 17, 2017
Packers vs Panthers
UNDER 47 -105
Play Type: Premium

ASA PLAY ON 10* UNDER Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers, 1PM ET> – Let’s not get carried away with the return of Aaron Rodgers for the Packers here as this won’t be same A-Rodg it was 8 weeks ago. Now he has to knock off the rust and you can bet head coach McCarthy won’t jeopardize his Hall of Fame QB with a bunch of 5 step drops and expose him to big hits. We expect a conservative game plan, lots of running and short passes.  That’s fine with the Packers though as their running game has been the 13th best in the NFL the past three games at 107YPG. In fact, the Packers have the 4th best yards per play running game in the NFL at 4.4YPR. Carolina certainly lacks a big play passing attack at 6.2 yards per passing attempt which is 22nd in the NFL. Overall the Panthers average just 195 passing yards per game which is 28th out of 32 teams in the league. What Carolina does well is run the football. They rank 5th in total rushing yards per game at 134.5YPG and 8th in rushing yards per attempt at 4.4. Where we’re going with this is that when teams run the football the clock continues to run and isn’t stopped by dropped passes. We also like the fact that Carolina is last in the league in pace of play and Green Bay is average. Carolina averages 23.1PPG this year while Green Bay scores 21.9PPG. The Packers just played two overtime games but if you eliminate the extra session they would have totaled just 42 and 40 points in regulation. With the move in the number on this game the value lies with the UNDER!

SERVICE BIO

The owners of American Sports Analysts (ASAwins), Lee Kostroski & Mike Merlet, have a combined 50+ years in the industry.  Both started with Doc’s Enterprises, Lee in the late 80’s and Mike in the early 90’s.  After learning the handicapping trade from one of the best in the business, they started ASA Inc in 1997 and have been going strong ever since.  They have been known throughout the industry for their success on BIG GAMES including their 10* Midwest Game of the Year.  They have posted a winning record on Top Games in 14 of their 19 football seasons giving them the much earned reputation as the top BIG GAME HANDICAPPERS in the country.  ASA is located in Madison, WI and they have also become known for their “Midwest ties” and handicapping prowess in the heart of the country – especially the Big Ten.     

ASAwins has appeared on numerous radio shows throughout the country as special expert football guests  including Tampa, New Orleans, Madison, Milwaukee, Memphis, Las Vegas, and Denver just to name a few.  They were also featured on the ESPN website with gaming writer Chad Millman during the 2011 season. 

ASAwins handicapping methods have been developed through years of hard work and research. Rather than implementing one specific strategy as many handicappers do, they intertwine many different philosophies when it comes to making football, basketball, hockey, and baseball selections.  They utilize their massive database that goes back over 30 years and can give them in depth information on any situation you can think of when it comes to handicapping.  That’s not where they stop however.  They also research stats and film each week to evaluate the upcoming match ups on the field along with speaking with their personal contacts throughout the country (especially in the Midwest).  On top of that, they analyze each pointspread (and their movements) comparing them with their own water tight power ratings to find where an edge might be found.  So as you can see, just because a game may fall into a successful system or the scheduling looks good to go against or with a certain team, that doesn’t mean that ASA automatically uses it as a selection. It must go through their in-depth process with all things considered before they give it the ASA stamp of approval. Looking at games from all of these angles gives ASA the best of all worlds when it comes to handicapping. Their handicapping theories have proven successful over the years because they provide their customers with the one thing they look for in this industry and that is WINNING RESULTS! 

Lee & Mike at ASAwins have stood the test of time in an industry that makes it very tough to do so.  Their 50+ years of experience will give you the WINNING EDGE you need.  Sports wagering is an investment and it’s time you hire ASAwins as your stock brokers!