FIFA Club World Cup - #238017/238018 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 3.5 Goals (+100) – Al Hilal vs Manchester City, Monday at 9 ET - Al Hilal, prior to a 2-0 win following a scoreless draw last time out, had scored 3.2 goals per match last 9 matches!  Of course they face a much bigger challenge here and there is a reason this one features Manchester City as a 2-goal favorite on the goal line in this one.  I am well aware that Al Hilal had been winning with defense but they will not be able to hold off a Man City side that has scored 18 goals in going 5-0 last 5 matches including 3-0 in the World Cup.  Of course they will force Al Hilal out of their comfort zone here and force them to try and keep up.  City did allow 2 goals in the most recent match and we expect they are going to get burned on the counterattack by Al Hilal at least once in this match.  However, the key will be the Man City offensive firepower keeping their foot on the gas throughout and flexing their muscles here in this one similar to what we saw with PSG yesterday.  Look for at least 3-1 here, if not much more, as this one should cruise over the total.   

#959/960 ASA PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 7:35 PM ET - Possible pitchers duel.  Jacob Lopez the expected starter for the Athletics and he has struck out 38 in 27 innings this month as he is having a great June.  He has been particularly dominant over his last 4 starts with only 1 earned run allowed on 14 hits in 23 innings!  Considering those phenomenal numbers plus all the strikeouts for Lopez, we don't expect much from the Rays lineup here.  At the same time, look for the Tampa Bay starter to also deliver a gem here.  Drew Rasmussen is 6-1 since mid-May and has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in his last 8 starts!  Yes, just 1 earned run allowed per start spanning his last 8 starts!  The Athletics enter this one on a 2-6 run and they have scored an average of only 1.8 runs in those 6 losses!  As for the Rays, they are off a 5-1 loss which was the 4th time in the last 6 games that their game has totaled 6 or less runs. Our computer math model projects a total of only 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.  

FIFA Club World Cup - #238029/238030 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-130) – Borussia Dortmund vs Monterrey, Tuesday at 9 ET - Monterrey is off a 4-0 win and they also scored a goal in their 1-1 draw with Inter Milan.  A match with Borussia Dortmund is likely to open up things a little bit more as well.  Borussia Dortmund has scored 5 goals in the last two matches and they had wrapped up Bundesliga and Champions League action by averaging 3 goals scored over their last 7 matches.  So the way they can bring it on the attack coupled with Monterrey coming in off a 4-0 blowout win sets this one up for plenty of goals. Monterrey also had been scoring well in the CONCACAF competition prior to this as they had averaged 2 goals scored over 4 matches in February and March.  Look for at least 2-1 here, if not much more, as this one should cruise over the total.     

ASA WNBA play on Minnesota Lynx -6 vs. Indiana Fever, 8pm ET - The Commissioner’s Cup will be electric tonight when the Fever and Lynx square off in Minnesota. Caitlyn Clark is questionable for tonight’s game but she is a HUGE draw for Iowa fans that will make the trip for this game. The Lynx have great home crowd support so this should be a fun environment and a big game atmosphere. Last season I distinctly remember watching the first meeting (of three) between these two teams in Minnesota and the Lynx were shellshocked by the Clark Fever and the crowd support in their home stadium. After that loss the Lynx made a statement with two double-digit wins in the next two meetings. Minnesota is the best team in the WNBA with arguably one of the two best players in the league in Napheesa Collier. The Lynx are 14-2 SU on the season and 8-0 at home with an average margin of victory of +16.3ppg. Indiana is 8-8 SU overall on the season, 4-4 SU on the road with an average MOV away from home of +0.5ppg. Minnesota is clearly the superior team with a Net rating of +14, compared to the Fever at +5.5. Minnesota has won 26 of their last thirty home games and a serious title contender this season. Indiana is improved, but a .500 record in their last 20 road games and the uncertainty of Clark has us on the Lynx in their own building.

ASA play on OVER 164.5 Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx, 8pm ET - This number opened 167.5 and was bet down with news that Caitlyn Clark is still not 100% and is listed as questionable tonight. With or without Clark we like OVER the number in this one. Indiana recently played in Golden State which resulted in 165 total points being scored. The Valkyries are similar to the Lynx in two key categories, pace of play (slow) and defense (1st Lynx, 3rd Valkyries). The one big difference is offense as the Lynx are 3rd in ONR overall and have the best EFG% at 55.6%. Another great comparison is the Lynx recent game against Seattle who has similar styles of play to the Fever and that game finished with 178 total points. Seattle/Fever rank 7th, 8th in Defensive Net rating, 2nd and 4th in Offensive net rating and 2nd and 3rd in pace of play. The point we are making is that we have a solid recent reference points for each team against similar opponents to predict this outcome. Last year two of the three meetings between these two teams finished with 170 or more total points being scored. The nature of this being a high profile game should result in a faster pace and more scoring opportunities for both teams. The Fever allow 37.3ppg in the paint this season which is 3rd most in the league which means Collier should feast on Indiana’s interior defense. Minnesota is great defensively but the Fever have the 3rd best team FG% at 46.2%. We expect plenty of points and should see this game get into the 170’s rather easily.