Free pick on Texas Tech 

I really like the value here with the Red Raiders at basically a pick'em at home against Kansas. I know the Jayhawks are rolling and the assumption is they are just going to win another Big 12 title, but I like how Texas Tech matches up against them. 

Keep in mind the Red Raiders went into Lawrence earlier this season and knocked off Kansas 85-73. Texas Tech's stingy defense held KU to just 45.5% shooting from the field and a mere 23% from deep. I look for the Red Raiders to be even more locked in defensively here at home in front of what will be an electric crowd.

Note that Tech is a strong 11-3 ATS this season when facing strong shooting teams who are hitting better than 45% on the season. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games.

Adding to all of this is the fact home teams off 2 or more consecutive losses as a road favorite have gone 113-66 (63%) ATS going all the way back to 1997. We also see that road underdogs who are revenging a home loss against a team off 2 or more consecutive losses as a road favorite are just 19-53 (26%) ATS since 1997. Take Texas Tech! 

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Kansas

After spending the better part of a month standing atop what appears to be the deepest conference in the country this season, an ill-timed toe injury to Keenan Evans has Texas Tech on the verge of giving up control of the Big 12 to Kansas. With their top playmaker unlikely to be anywhere close to 100 percent on Saturday, the seventh-ranked Red Raiders host the eighth-ranked Jayhawks in hopes of keeping Kansas from clinching at least a share of a NCAA-record 14th straight conference title.

Kansas has lost the front end of a Big 12 home-and-home series 17 times in 15 seasons under coach Bill Self only to win each "revenge game" in the second meeting.

Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Red Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.