Free Pick on Chicago White Sox +

The White Sox are showing unbelievable value as a huge road underdog against division rival Minnesota. While Chicago comes in off -back-to-back losses, it's not like Minnesota is playing great either. The Twins are just 2-4 in their 6 games since the break and should not be this big of a favorite with Phil Hughes on the mound.

Hughes has a solid 10-6 record, but has a not so great 4.06 ERA, which is only slightly better than the Hector Noesi's 4.62 ERA. On top of that, Hughes has an ugly 5.49 ERA at at home and has been hit hard in his two starts against the White Sox this season. He allowed 4 runs in 5 innings on 4/3 and 5 runs in 5 innings at home on 6/22. Not to mention Hughes is an awful 2-10 in his last 12 starts at home in night games and his team has lost by an average score of 2.3 to 6.6.

Another huge factor in this one is that the Twins swept the White Sox in the most recent series between these two teams. All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 who are  revenging a sweep at the hands of their opponents, after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival (lost 1-2 to KC yesterday) are 33-16 since 1997. That's a 67% system in favor of the White Sox. Take Chicago!

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On Thursday the free MLB Play is on the Minnesota Twins. Game 968 at 8:10 eastern. The Twins fit a 90% system here that plays on certain home favorites off a home dog win by 2 or more runs in a game where the total was 8 or less and their opponent arrives off a home loss. The Twins are 7-0 as a home favorite of -140 or more and 6-1 as a home favorite off a home dog win. Chicago has lost the last 5 to the Twins and is 0-9 on the road off a 1 run loss and 0-5 as a road dog of +140 or more off a home loss. They have H. Noesi going and he was pedestrian like in a 7 inning 4 earned runs appearance here in June. He will oppose Phil Hughes tonight who has a 7-2 record against them with a 2.78 era. With the Whitesox just 2-8 on throwback Thursday we will take the Twins tonight. On Thursday their are 3 More Big MLB Plays up one is the MLB Game of the Week from a Powerful 27-2 League Wide system, their a Big totals play from a 90% system and a 12-1 Dog system. Jump on and cash big on Throw back Thursday. For the free play take Minnesota. RV

1* Free Play Minnesota Twins.

I think the home side offers good value in the opener of this four game set. Minnesota turns to Phil Hughes (10-6, 4.06 ERA) who is a pedestrian 3-3 with a 6.34 ERA over his last six starts. The last time he faced the White Sox he gave up four runs over five frames while not receiving a decision in a 10-9 victory in Chicago on April 3rd; note though, Hughes owned a minuscule 1.34 ERA vs. Chicago lifetime previous to that somewhat shaky outing. The visitors counter with Hector Noesi (4-7, 5.21 ERA) who gave up four runs over seven frames in a 5-4 setback at Minnesota on June 20th, lucky to escape with the no-decision. The Twins swept a four game set in this series at Target Field from June 19-22 and all signs point to another rout in my opinion as Hughes gets the slight nod on the bump and that’s more than enough to tip the scales in our favor; consider a second look at MINNESOTA in this one.

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