Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-113)

The Detroit Tigers have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Baltimore Orioles that should lead them to winning this game by multiple runs. The Tigers have one of the most improved offenses in baseball ranking 6th scoring 4.8 runs per game. Their offense will be aided by temps in the 90's at game time.

2024 AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal goes for Detroit tonight. Skubal is 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 13 starts this season with 105 K's in 83 1/3 innings. Skubal has owned the Orioles, going 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last three starts against them while firing 18 shutout innings with 28 K's.

The Orioles will make this a bullpen game starting with Keegan Akin. They have the 5th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.74 ERA on the season. Dean Kremer is likely to take over for Akin, and Kremer is 5-6 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 13 starts this season for the Orioles. Bet the Tigers on the Run Line Thursday.

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15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+112)

The Chicago Cubs have big advantages at the plate and on the mound today over the Pittsburgh Pirates that should have them winning this game by multiple runs. The Cubs rank 2nd in baseball scoring 5.53 runs per game while the Pirates rank 29th scoring 3.26 runs per game.

Jameson Taillon is 6-3 with a 3.54 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 13 starts for the Cubs this season. Taillon has been dominant in his last four starts, allowing just 5 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings for a 1.69 ERA during this stretch. Taillon fired 7 shutout innings in his last start against the Pirates.

Andrew Heaney is 3-4 with a 3.24 ERA in 13 starts for the Pirates this season with just 52 K's in 72 1/3 innings. He's one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball given how much he pitches to contact. Heaney is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against the Cubs, allowing 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 2/3 innings. He allowed 4 earned runs, 2 homers and 8 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Cubs this season that resulted in a 9-0 loss on April 29th. Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-133)

The San Francisco Giants are one of the more underrated teams in baseball this season sitting at 40-28. The Colorado Rockies have been the worst team in baseball by a mile. The Rockies are 12-55 on the season scoring just 3.22 runs per game and allowing 6.24 runs per game, getting outscored by 3.02 runs per game.

The Giants have owned the Rockies this season going 5-0 in their last five meetings with four wins by 3 runs or more. They will get to bat at least 9 innings today being the road team, and I like their chances of winning this game by multiple runs today given their big advantage on the mound.

Hayden Birdsong is 3-1 with a 2.55 ERA in four starts and 11 relief appearances this season. Birdsong held the Rockies to 2 earned runs in 6 innings with 12 K's in his lone career start against them. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 1st in baseball with a 2.42 ERA on the season.

The Giants scored 10 runs on the Rockies yesterday. They will tee off against Antonio Senzatela again today. Senzatela has been the worst starter for the Rockies, going 1-10 with a 6.68 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in 12 starts and one relief appearance. He has allowed at least 4 earned runs in seven consecutive starts. That includes 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings in his lone start against the Giants this season, which came on the road. Bet the Giants on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Giants/Rockies OVER 11

Coors Field is the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. It's really deadly to pitchers when the forecast is like it's going to be today. Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to center in Colorado this afternoon. The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings including 17 combined runs yesterday in a 10-7 victory by the Giants, and it should be more of the same today.

No question Hayden Birdsong has been solid this season, but this may be his toughest test of the season yet given the forecast. But what I'm really expecting is the Giants to do the bulk of the scoring on their own like they did in scoring 10 runs yesterday.

They will tee off against Antonio Senzatela again today. Senzatela has been the worst starter for the Rockies, going 1-10 with a 6.68 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in 12 starts and one relief appearance. He has allowed at least 4 earned runs in seven consecutive starts. That includes 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings in his lone start against the Giants this season, which came on the road. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.