In week 3 we broke down the SEC, and our leans went 5-1 ATS. Week 4 we broke down the ACC, and again the leans we gave out went 5-1 ATS. Today we break down the Big Ten conference in terms of margin of victory against the spread. We take a look at all teams in the Big Ten and see what kind of mistakes Vegas makes the week following a big win ATS. I personally did not have any College football against the spread in week #4 on any Big Ten teams which is typically one of the better conferences for me.
WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS:
Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home were just 7-13 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season. That includes a 3-3 ATS mark in 2016. Week #5 leans – Fade Michigan -11.5 off a huge win ATS last week and are home for the 5th game in a row hosing Wisconsin, A team still flying a bit under the radar. Also fade Ohio State-38.5. I mean I would not be psyched to fade Urban Meyer off a bye especially with only Indiana on deck for the Buckeyes. It’s a no play for me, but Wisconsin is on my list in this scenario of games to do a deep dive on.
Winning teams following a win of 7+ ATS now on the road are 5-4 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season. Really there is no value here with a team going on the road following a big win. It will be interesting to do more of a deeper look going back more years on wins of 21+.
Winning teams following a loss of 7+ ATS now at home are 7-6 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season.
Winning teams following a loss of 7+ ATS now on the road are 6-3 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season. This scenario does make sense as a team following a big loss would typically be undervalued the next week. There are a few teams to look at backing this week coming off disappointing performances from week #4. Week #5 Leans – Michigan State -7.5 at Indiana. First of all Indiana lost to Wake Forest last week, enough said. Also Michigan State’s loss to Wisconsin last week was a bit misleading with their turnovers, and the fact they were coming off a big win at Notre Dame it’s understandable that this team was extremely flat. I hope to see this line fall in our favor and the Spartans will be a candidate for our teaser of the week. Another lean would be Minnesota +3 at Penn State here as the Nittany Lions look awful early this season. The Gophers come off a bad loss ATS, but they faced a Central Michigan team that did defeat Oklahoma State. They still won the game, and are 3-0 on the season. Is there a coaching advantage here this week?
Neutral Sites: Teams following a win 7+ at neutral sites are 2-1 ATS, and following a loss 7+ ATS are 1-0 ATS.
LOSING TEAM SCENARIOS
Losing teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home are 3-7 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season. There are several obvious teams we are throwing into the losing team scenario mix. Obviously one of them is Rutgers, but also Purdue, Illinois, and on the cusp is Northwestern and Penn State this year. There are no teams that fall under this situation in week #5.
Losing teams following a win 7+ ATS now on the road are 8-3 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season. This is a perfect scenario for week #5 with Rutgers+38.5. Rutgers coming off a win ATS by 7.5 points and now go on the road after playing well against Iowa to play an Ohio State team now ranked #2 after having not played a week ago. I thought we got Ohio State against Oklahoma in week #3 at the right time, but the hype train can speed up dramatically with a team and a brand like Ohio State and that’s certainly what we have here. I only wish Ohio State was not off the bye and that they had a bigger week 6 game to look ahead to.
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Losing teams following a loss 7+ ATS now at home are 4-10 ATS since the 2015 season. There are a few teams to fade her coming off losses in week #4. For the record this went 4-7 ATS a year ago and is 0-3 ATS this season. Week #5 leans – Fade Indiana and back Michigan State -7.5 even though Michigan State makes the list previously that does not make this an automatic play. Indiana has played these games tough in previous years. Indiana also off a misleading loss to Wake Forest. They actually out gained Wake by 259 yards, but had 5 interceptions in the game. The other one is fade Illinois and Back Nebraska -21. For me this is too many points for a Lovie Smith defense coming off a bye week.
Summary of leans for Big Ten week 5: Nebraska -21, Michigan State -7.5, Rutgers +38.5, Minnesota +3, and Wisconsin +11.5. I guess the ones I like the most are Wisconsin and Minnesota, with Michigan State coming in close as well.
Neutral Sites – Losing teams following a win are 1-1 ATS, and off a loss are 1-0 ATS.
