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Today we are breaking down some misleading scores from week 2 and how they impact public perception for week 3 and where you can find some value. Yesterday’s podcast we did a recap of my week 2 betting which did not go as plan, but overall we had some bad luck, and I am really confident we are going to rebound nicely in week 3.
Today we are breaking down some misleading scores from week 2 and how they impact public perception for week 3 and where you can find some value. Yesterday’s podcast we did a recap of my week 2 betting which did not go as plan, but overall we had some bad luck, and I am really confident we are going to rebound nicely in week 3. As I mentioned I have bounced back 25 out of 41 times following a losing week in my career. Overall we have had 59 winning weeks in college football. My consistency is the main reason why I’m ranked #1 in overall profit for college football on the sportscapping network of professional handicappers which does not take into consideration confidence ratings, and oh by the way we did cash in on our max rating play on Washington State moving us to 1-1 on the season on such plays and we are 78-46 ATS (63% ATS winners on MAX RATED PLAYS) Check out College Football Expert Leaderboard
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee 24-45.
This was one of the more frustrating games I watched, and I actually got a chance to re-watch it last night, because I like to seriously torcher myself. Kidding aside.. I think this was the most misleading score from week 2. In my opinion Virginia Tech was the better team, but they simply could not avoid the turnovers. Virginia Tech moved the ball up and down the field and I was very impressed with Jarrod Evans 20/28 214 and TD. Travon McMillian had 127 yards on 14 carries against an SEC Defense. This pass defense held Dobbs to 91 yards passing and 10/19 throwing. They outgained them, but were -4 in turnover margin which does not even tell the full story.
In 2015, Stanford was the luckiest team or a team that hustled the most perhaps with 66.67% fumble recovery percentage. Middle Tennessee was dead last with 26.83%. Stanford’s opponents barely every fumbled last year and nearly did they so opportunities were limited as far as sample size with just 1.5 total fumbles per game. Fumbles by Stanford, and fumbles by their opponents combined. Middle Tennessee had 1.8 fumbles per game and opponents of their opponents fumbled 1.7 for a total of 3.5/game for a total of 42 fumbles during their season and they recovered just 11 of those.
Virginia Tech and Tennessee had a total of 7 fumbles and the Hokies did not recover a single one. Through 2 games Virginia Tech games have had 13 fumbles and they have recovered just 2 for a 15% rate, and their games are on pace for 90 total turnovers this season. Just Fuente is a good coach we saw a little bit of it in this game. I’m sure ball security will be an emphasis this week in practice. I’m leaning towards Virginia Tech -6 over Boston college I think we get some good line value.
Cincinnati over Purdue 38-20
Purdue had over 500 yards in this game, but turned the ball over 5 times. That was something Cincinnati was used to a year ago, but on the flip side. This game was 31-7 to start the 4th quarter however, and there was a lot of garbage yardage for Purdue in that last quarter. Cinci hosts Houston this week on Thursday in a marquee game showdown on ESPN. Houston opened up as a 6 point favorite with 78% of tickets on Cougars, and 68% of the money the line has moved to 7.5.
Nebraska over Wyoming 52-17
This was a 24-17 score entering the 4th quarter before Nebraska scored 28 points. Wyoming turned the ball over 6 times in this one and I have to say I was very high on Nebraska entering the season, but now I’m not as thrilled about their chances moving forward. I think you could find some good value on Oregon this week. Rot 168 –
Ohio State over Tulsa 48-3
Ohio State was not as dominating as the final score says with just 417 yards of total offense. The final score suggests otherwise, but Ohio State benefited from having two pick sixes in the second quarter. I think Ohio State’s defense has been very impressive, but their offense has a lot of work to do. Tulsa turned the ball over 6 times in this game, and likely will have some value in the future.
Vanderbilt over Middle Tennessee 47-24
Vanderbilt with 47 points? We may never see that again. This was a weird one with the nearly 2 hour weather delay and the fact that Vanderbilt did not even eclipse 400 yards. At some point Vanderbilt is going to get hype. Middle Tennessee was a big sharp play a week ago so I’m not sure what that means moving forward.
Arkansas vs. TCU
This is misleading from a totals perspective. These two combined for 27 points after 3 quarters. Had 29 in the 4th quarter which was still under the total, but that 29 points forced 3 OT’s and the final score 41-38, a total of 79 points looks much higher than it actually was. Both defenses are very under rated at this point in the season and are the strengths of their teams.
BYU vs. Utah
There were a total of 9 turnovers in this game, and the team with 6 actually won the game. BYU went for 2 to win the game at the end, and did not get it. They did us a huge favor by doing that. If they just kicked the extra point we would have been heading to OT. I would have been 0-3 on my totals with all 3 games going to OT. I’m not sure what the odds are on that. Utah’s offense though doesn’t look good at all. Stay tuned this week for all of my College Football Picks Against The Spread
