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College Football Week 1 Recap – Future Betting Advantages Part 1 of 2

September 6, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

 
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Last week our premium newsletter gave out a premium College Football Picks Against The Spread play (info clients pay for) on Nevada +24 an easy cover over Northwestern.  Newsletter plays go out on Thursday’s so if you subscribed after you likely missed the play!  Nevada actually had a 17-7 lead at half time as we cruised to an easy cover!

Along with my premium newsletter I have a week #2 promotion that you can find by going to freddywills.com/promo under recent articles.  I also have it linked in the show notes. It’s worth mentioning that I have a 30-15 ATS record over my career that’s 67% winners ATS on Saturday’s week2! 

Ohio State vs. Indiana – 21 Ohio State covered

I felt like our play on Indiana was on spot.  They clearly did not have the depth to stay with Ohio State.  The one thing I learned from this match up was the fact that teams that play fast and both of these teams picked up the tempo.  All that means is it’s easier for the favorite to cover the big spreads, because it’s like they are playing 5 quarters.  It’s something I should have looked into a little more.  On the other hand it was hard to predict some of the unfortunate luck we did have in this game.  Right form the start Indiana lost their starting WR Nick Westbrook.  Westbrook was their best receiver last year and while it did not seem to hurt them as Indiana passed for 520 yards it became much more predictable and I think they would have had more plays and success in the second half had he not gotten injured.  In the end Indiana’s 3 turnovers did them in along with the big plays allowed.

Betting Takeaways– Ohio State’s secondary is vulnerable which we had known going in.  It will be interesting to see if Oklahoma can take advantage in week #2 on the road where they will likely be a 7 point dog.  On the flip side J.T. Barrett did not have a good game despite what the stat sheet says.  Although he had a key drop by Parris Campbell I thought he was bailed out on some of the big plays that happened.  Against a good defense that can stop the run this offense will struggle early which is why I’d lean towards Oklahoma in week #2 to cover the spread.

Maryland vs. Texas

The point spread closed in favor of Texas at 19, and they lose by 10.  Maryland talent perhaps finally living up to expectations? Maryland’s QB, Tyrell Pigrome went down early, but PS#26 QB Kasim Hill took over and the offense did not miss a beat.  There were many big plays given up in this one and Maryland’s rushing offense average 6.1 ypc.

This game also went over the total by over 30 points so Vegas had this one wrong big time.  There were plenty of TD’s from special teams and defense.  Texas had a pick six to start the game they also had a blocked FG returned for a TD and a punt return for a TD.  Neither team eclipsed 500 total yards and both teams were penalized more than 10 times.  Betting Future: Overall very sloppy. I could see value in the under for both teams moving forward.  Texas strength is in the passing game, Maryland’s strength is in the running game.

Kent State vs. Clemson

Clemson breezed by with a 56-3 win on a 38 point spread.  Not surprised by this.  I think Clemson is the most talented and the best coached team in the ACC.  They lost their star QB to the NFL, star RB and star WR, but they have reloaded and they certainly feel disrespected.  Kelly Bryant looked the part at QB with 77 yards rushing and a very efficient 16/22 passing.  Betting Take: I hope Vegas hasn’t caught on with this team yet, but I suppose they probably have.  We will see when the lines are released for week 2’s match up vs. Auburn.  GOY lines put out by the Golden Nugget in June had Clemson -5.5.  Lucky for us Auburn also played very well in week 1.

Wyoming vs. Iowa

Iowa -11.5 was my free play this week.  I truly felt too much hype was being given to Wyoming team because of the QB Josh Allen.  Allen lost by far the best offensive player Wyoming football has ever seen in RB Brian Hill (Falcons).  Allen really struggled going 23/40 for 174 yards and 2 INT’s.  Iowa’s offense also struggled which is worth noting and they turned the ball over 4 times.  I think they were lucky to be at home in this one and there should be value on Wyoming moving forward.  Their defense which returned 8 starters definitely looked improved playing on the road and holding Iowa to 263 total yards while turning them over 4 times was truly impressive.  I’d be lying if I didn’t say I thought we were lucky to get this cover.  Betting Take: Iowa at home against Penn State in a few weeks definitely looks interesting.

California vs. North Carolina

Cal went on the road as a double digit dog and came out with a 35-30 win and a 18 point margin of victory after the spread.  I’m not sure we learned much from this game other than North Carolina probably has fallen.  I didn’t expect a California team that was expected to be very bad to go across the country and play this well.  Sophomore QB Ross Bowers had a pretty good day completing 63.2% of his passes for 363 yards 4 TD’s and 2 interceptions.  Justin Wilcox, who is now the head coach and was the DC at Wisconsin last year and USC before is on the list of coaches to dig into deeper.

Washington vs. Rutgers

Rutgers played extremely well and it was a nice win and cover ATS for myself and clients.  The first of the year in fact.  I knew Rutgers would be improved with some of the talent they had coming from other P5 schools.  I also knew the trip would be tough for Washington and it really seemed to be a challenge to get things going.  Overall I felt the game was closer than the final score of 30-14.  Rutgers was -2 in turnover margin and they were just -59 total yards +2 first downs.  I expect there will be value backing Rutgers in the future.  Their front seven was extremely impressive stopping the run.

Michigan vs. Florida

This was my game of the week and I played it on Florida as I thought we were getting value with the players being out for Florida.  Florida however really struggled in the second half and their offense seemed to have no clue.  I really did not like the move to Malik Zaire.  I thought Feleipe Franks was doing a pretty good job throwing the ball.  Florida could not get a running game going and they could not protect the passer.  I underestimated Jim Harbough’s team.  Yes they had 5 returning starters, but these now are all Harbough’s recruits as Brady Hoke’s talent is gone.  Harbough’s first two years here produced the #7 and #6 recruiting classes in the nation.  Betting Take:  Michigan is the favorite in my opinion to win the Big Ten based on what I saw this weekend.

South Carolina vs. NC State

This was a surprising defeat for an ACC team as a 7.5 point favorite.  I thought the line was a bit off.  However, a closer look reveals how lucky South Carolina was.  They were outgained 504 yards to 246 and NC State held a first down edge 29-12, and dominated the time of possession 36:41 to 23:06, yet they lost the game.  There was great QB play in this game by Ryan Finley and Jake Bentley and the difference was the kickoff return by South Carolina’s Deebo Samuel.  NC State’s defense was pretty solid in the front 7.  Their issue was in the red zone and on third down.  Betting Take:  Vegas already respecting South Carolina’s win as they opened up as a pk at Missouri for week 2, but the line has quickly moved to -2.5.  NC State will face off against Marshall in an interesting match up.  Marshall beat Miami Ohio with 2 special team TD’s and an interception returned for six.  They were outgained 429 to 267 much like South Carolina.  The under clearly will have value along with NC State.

Nevada vs. Northwestern

Nevada +24.5 was our premium play in our newsletter this week and it was an easy victory as this game was tied at 17 entering the 4th quarter.  Nevada is much improved as I mentioned in previous podcasts and will be a tough out for many teams.  I was thoroughly impressed with Nevada’s ability to move the ball and Northwestern really seemed to struggle against the 3-3-5 defense that Nevada newly implemented as they scored just 7 points in the first half.  Still Nevada opens as a 10.5 point underdog at home this week vs. Toledo.  Betting Take:  I think Northwestern was getting too much pre-season hype.  However, their offense woke up for 24 points in the second half and it could be dangerous fading them moving forward.  They are 3 point favorites on the road this week against Duke.

Western Michigan vs. USC

Western Michigan is a new look team and went out to California as 28 point dogs and it was tied at 21 with 9 minutes to go in the 4th quarter before the final score of 49-31.  Much like the Ohio State victory over Indiana there were some big plays late giving USC a win that was a bit misleading.  However, USC did not cover the spread.  It was very surprising to see Western Michigan dominate the time of possession 35 minutes to 25 and run the ball for 263 yards.  One has to think how USC can survive as a playoff team allowing a MAC team to run for more than 5.5 yards per carry.  To put it in perspective Western Michigan only averaged 5.05 ypc last year.

Betting Take:  It’s difficult to over react or not over react from this game.  In my opinion USC had to be holding back some of their plays.  Stanford had the weekend off, and USC has their biggest game at home against Stanford this week.  I will say the total went over by nearly 20 points on Vegas closing number which to me is a bit inflated.  I would lean toward the under in the Stanford USC game this week at 56.

 

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