*FREE PICK 44-25 L69! - Sunday's Hot & Cold Starters | 7/31/

[Freddy Wills]

We will try to wrap up the month on a high note in our free pick article as we will concentrate most of August on breaking down college football conferences. Last couple days we took some chances on some value plays including the Pirates +237. Well we are here to win and today we have a solid play that was being considered a play of the day for our today, but we will make it a free pick. We are now mlb sports picks!


Reds -151 (2.5* FREE PLAY) Johny Cueto has been absolutely dominating this year. He has a 1.58 ERA during day starts and is 2-2 with a 1.86 ERA at home where he has not gotten a lot of run support. That is about to change Sunday when the Reds face Barry Zito. The Reds are still in the race and have dominated left handed pitching this year. They are the #2 team in OPS with a .819 while the Giants are 26th with a .661 OPS vs. RHP, which they face here today. Cueto had 7 innings pitched of shut out ball earlier vs. the Giants and I think he continues that success as he has not given up more than 3 ER all year long. Giants also struggle during day games as well where they have a .632 OPS scoring just 3.24 runs per game while the reds are #2 with a .803 OPS and scoring 5.31 runs per day game.

Barry Zito is fighting for a spot in the rotation with Jonathan Sanchez returning next week. He's been awful in his last two starts and now he faces a hot hitting Reds team that has hit .247 with 7.04 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games and the Reds at home this year have been dominant vs. LHP. They are hitting .286 with 7.05 runs per 9 vs. LHP. The Giants bullpen which is considered an advantage is not on the road where they have a 3.58 ERA while the Reds have 2.78 ERA home bullpen ERA with their best pitcher going makes this a total mismatch as the Reds are 31-13 in their last 44 home games vs. LH pitching and Zito is 1-10 in his last 11 starts as an underdog +110 to +150.

Other Hot Starters L3 Starts:
Jerred Weaver (3-0, 20.2 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 1.31 ERA)
Fausto Carmona (3-0, 14 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 1.29 ERA)
Jeff Karstens (1-2, 21 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)
Vance Worley (3-0, 22.1 IP, 0.81 WHIP, 1.61 ERA)
Rubby De La Rosa (2-1, 17 IP, 1.24 WHIP, 1.59 ERA)
Joe Saunders (1-2, 22 IP, 0.91 WHIP, 2.45 ERA)
Jake Westbrook (2-1, 19 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 2.37 ERA)


Cold starter wiht the best shot at winning is Tommy Hanson who has struggled over his last three starts with a 7.27 ERA. Braves look to continue their push in the NL wildcard and Hanson has given up just 1 ER over his last 3 starts vs. the Marlins and has a 3.02 ERA during day starts. He'll go up against Ricky Nolasco who has an ERA over 5 during day starts and over his last 3 starts vs. the Braves posts a 8.16 ERA. Braves are -150 favorites so you get some pretty good odds on what is a complete mismatch!

Other Cold Starters L3 Starts:
Jake Arieta (1-2, 17 IP, 1.59 WHIP, 6.35 ERA)
Barry Zito (1-2, 18.2 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 7.23 ERA)
Ricky Nolasco (1-2, 14 IP, 1.79 WHIP, 7.07 ERA)
Jason Vargas (0-3, 13 IP, 1.46 WHIP, 9.69 ERA)
Carl Pavano (2-1, 18 IP, 1.56 WHIP, 8.00 ERA)
Andrew Miller (2-1, 12 IP, 2.42 WHIP, 9.00 ERA)