We are looking at the power 5 conference and breaking down 10 teams we feel are going to be surprise teams. These are teams that will not be in the top 10 of the pre-season poll which looks something like this:
Our goal is for you to find value with these 10 teams we rank so you can bet on them throughout the season when it matters. These are also top notch teams I feel have a shot to break into the top 10 and make some noise with some of these teams having shots at getting into the college football playoff. These teams are all part of my college bowl predictions.
10.) North Carolina Tar Heels (Vegas win total odds O/U 8.5 wins)
North Carolina lost their senior QB from a year ago in Marquise Williams, but I have them as one of my surprise teams, because they have the potential to be a dangerous team again this year. First of all they have 78% of the defense returning from last year. The bigger key is the fact that they will have 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman returning from a year ago and a QB with pretty good potential in Mitch Trubisky, who I mentioned in a previous podcast.
The offense will lean heavily on their 5 star running back Elijah Hood who should have a better year with the experienced offensive line. I believe a lot of people are hyped up on Clemson and Florida State they forget about North Carolina, a team that could make some real noise after the first game of the season when they play Georgia as a 2.5 point under dog on a neutral field. They won’t have to play Clemson and have a chance to beat Florida State on the road on October 1st something I actually don’t think will happen.
The reason they are a surprise team is they should get to the ACC Championship game. The Coastal Division is winnable and if they win they get to that game against Clemson or Florida State anything can happen. This team will be an under dog 3-4 times this season and I expect them to win 2 of those games.
9.) Oregon Ducks – talent (Vegas win total odds O/U 8 wins)
I’m not sure why Oregon is sliding under the radar like this. They are typically talked about every single year and I have to give Mark Helfrich some credit for firing his defensive coordinator and bringing in the former Michigan head coach in Brady Hoke. I think Hoke is a good coordinator, but he’s just not a good head coach as we saw in Michigan.
In terms of experience this team returns 64% of their production, but has one of the fastest , deepest talent in the country at the skill position which includes ten 4 star receivers and three 4 star running backs including Royce Freeman who rushed for 1,836 yards a season ago. Obviously their are major question marks at QB as they bring in another transfer in Dakota Prukop who fits the mold of a running/throwing QB.
The reason they are a surprise team is the fact that they are not ranked in the Top 10 and predicted to win just 8 games. I’m not sold on Helfrich as the long term answer at Oregon and we have seen the recruiting rankings taking a beating over the last few years, but this is a team that should have won at Michigan State, and other than the ugly loss against Utah was in every other game. With the experience back on defense along with the coaching change I can see this team back in the PAC 12 Championship. They will host Stanford, and Washington and have chances to upset Nebraska and USC on the road.
8.) Washington Huskies (Vegas win total odds O/U 9 wins)
This team would be higher on my list, but many people are calling them a surprise team and their over under win total is far too high for us to expect much value back on this team, but nonetheless this was one of the most inexperienced teams last year and they were still able to jump to 7-6 while earning a key win on the road against USC. They have 15 returning starters and many are from the excellent defense that returns the majority of their games from their two-deep.
The schedule sets up nice for them this season with Stanford and USC having to visit Husky Stadium, one of the loudest stadiums. We could see this team as an under dog in both of those games along with their road game at Oregon which is why I have them on my list as a surprise team. AT the end of the day this team reminds me a little too much of Auburn from last year who I was really excited about along with everyone else. Unless Jake Browning drastically improves this is one of the teams on my top 10 I don’t see eclipsing Vegas odds of total wins.
7.) Iowa Hawkeyes (Vegas win total odds O/U 8.5 wins)
Iowa had a season that most did not predict. They were super close to defeating Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship game which have gotten them into the college football playoff and they could get there again because of the easy schedule they will have, but make no mistake about it Vegas knows that many people will be looking to bet against Iowa which is why I think they are a surprise team here in 2016.
They can’t do it again can they? Well this team returns 72% of their production on offense and defense and have one of the best corners in the nation in Desmond King, not that anyone even bothers to throw much in the Big Ten. The offensive line loses two starters, but Iowa recruits the position well and returns their senior QB CJ Beathard which is always a big deal when you look to make some noise.
The reason they are a surprise team is they have more experience this year than they did last year. Their easy schedule from a year ago gets even easier as their 5 road games are against teams with losing records with the exception of Penn State. Their is just one team in the preseason Top 25 on their schedule and that is Michigan. There will be many times I will back this team in 2016 considering they have 8 starters returning on defense and they get back one of their best DL in Drew Ott who they lost early in the year last year. We should see this team as an under dog or small favorite in 5 or 6 games this season and I guarantee I will have a couple college football picks in 2016 on Iowa in a couple of those as long as my algorithms don’t hate Iowa.
6.) Georgia Bulldogs (Vegas win total odds O/U 8.5 wins)
This team was very close to getting into my top 5, but I do have some questions about them. Georgia is regularly on the list of teams to contend, and they were regularly winning 9 or 10 games under Mark Richt, but they decided to fire him an
d he comes up later on this list, but Georgia is my #6 team on the list as they are predicted to win just 8 or 9 games. Georgia brings in a very good coach in Kirby Smart and we will find out right away if he’s a very good head coach.
Georgia has a lot of depth and talent on offense and defense and return 76% of their overall production from a year ago. They also get Nick Chubb back, have a top 10 recruit class once again. The biggest question mark is whether or not freshmen QB Jacob Eason, a 5 star recruit will win the QB battle over Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey.
The reason they are a surprise team is everyone is going to give Smart a pass this season, because he is taking over for Mark Richt, but Richt left a ton, a TON! of talent behind. They have just 4 true road games this year and 3 are vs. teams that did not have a winning record a year ago. They get lucky and will host SEC East favorite Tennessee at home where they should be 2-3 point favorites on October 1st, but it comes the week after they go on the road to play Ole Miss. Those are two games to really look at, but this team has potential to run the table and get into the conversation of a serious bowl game and maybe more.
