There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
Turnover Luck 2016 Converts to 2017 Success! -Turnovers are certainly something you can handicap. Everyone knows that certain teams are more prone to turning the ball over based on a variety of factors such as poor offensive line play or poor QB decision making, poor receiver hands or even a lack of hustle or just luck. Sometimes the ball does not bounce your way and that was the case after six weeks last year we bet on teams that had a 30% fumble recovery rate. To put that in perspective on how unlucky we were handicapping games. The 128th team in the nation last year was Purdue with a 28% recovery rate and #126 was Charlotte at 32%. What does it all mean? It’s hard to see the same thing happening in back to back years. At minimum we should revert back to the mean of 50%. Teams on my radar this year that had poor fumble recovery rates are, Oklahoma State, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Connecticut and Notre Dame all were under 40%. Phil Steele has a great article in his magazine that breaks this down even further and even takes a look at the luckiest teams in the nation from a year ago and hypothesizes […]
Toughest College Football Conference For 2017 -Last year I spoke about this and claimed ACC to be the best of the Power 5 and the Big Ten to be trending backward at least for one year based on experience. I used that all year to back ACC teams and Clemson on the way to a National Championship. This strategy won me a lot of big games last season, but lets take a look at how the ACC did against each Power 5 conference in detail: vs. Big Ten – 6-2, 5-3 ATS (including 3-1 in bowl games) vs. Big 12 – 1-1 SU & ATS vs. Pac 12 – 0-2, but 2-0 ATS (Stanford by 2 over UNC, and Oregon over Virginia) vs. SEC – 10-4 , 9-5 ATS Overall the ACC went 17-9 straight up and ATS against the POWER 5 Conferences. Last year I leaned on quality of coaches and the fact that the ACC had the most experienced conference from a lettermen perspective. Obviously there is not an exact science for picking the toughest conference and honestly it’s not something I’m really passionate about getting into. I lean on Phil Steele and if you don’t have his magazine you should. On page 33 […]
Top 5 Non Power Five Coaching Moves – 2017 -South Florida – Charlie Strong I saw a title out there from SBnation stating that “If Charlie Strong had this USF roster at Texas, he’d still be there.” Come on I mean really? USF plays in the American Athletic Conference not the Big 12. Even though I am not high on the Big 12 there is still a big jump in consistent competition between the two conference. Since 2013 when the conference started the AAC is 4-10 vs. the Big 12 getting outscored by an average of 17 points. Charlie Strong did a great job when he was playing in a conference where he was not overwhelmed. I think Strong was a bit out of his league in Texas. Strong has 16 starters back (9 on defense), and will have one of the best offenses in the country led by his senior QB Quinton Flowers, a dark horse for the Heisman. This team broke all kinds of school records last year on their way to averaging 43.8 ppg. I expect the same this year and I had them listed in my surprise teams as the schedule sets up really nicely for a possible 12-0 season! If Strong can get […]
Top 5 College Football Power Five Head Coach Moves 2017 -Here is last year’s article – Top 10 College Football Head Coach Moves 2016 This year is in no particular order, but I am going to talk about the power 5 big coaching moves first. Baylor – Matt Rhule, coming over from Temple replaced Jim Grobe who stepped in just to settle the ship after the Baylor scandal. This team lost their entire recruiting class a year ago, and Rhule definitely gets a pass this year, but I’m not so sure he’s going to need it. This is a team that started 6-0 and went 0-6 to close the year out once their schedule got tougher, but lets talk about Rhule. Rhule is clearly a different style head coach compared to Art Briles. Actually there couldn’t be a more different style in comparison. Baylor was reliant on offense to win games. Rhule was not. Baylor operated with extreme tempo. Rhule did not. Temple was 86th, in pass % last year and I definitely think we will see a similar style in play from Rhule at Baylor. Betting Take – That means we won’t see as many high scoring games from Baylor. I think Baylor also because of the limit they […]
2017 Non-Power Five College Football Surprise Teams -These teams won’t contend for a national title, but they will be in the mix for a New Year’s Day bowl game, and also on my list for betting value in key situations throughout the season. Ohio Bobcats – Out of the MAC we have Ohio with Frank Solich in his 13th year here. This team returns 13 starters, but should be in good position schedule wise to be in contention and get into the MAC title with a chance at winning it for the first time since 1968. As we all know from my previous podcasts I usually rate the MAC West over the MAC East and there is a lot of data that supports those claims over the years. This year though I think Ohio has a shot. They do draw Toledo out of the West, but this team has a deep stable of running backs behind an experienced offensive line that could put them in the title game. South Florida – Head coach Willie Taggart departs for Oregon and enter Charlie Strong (fired from Texas). So let’s just talk about Strong for a bit here, because I still do believe he is a good coach and that’s going […]
