Vegas Mistakes Week #8 – 9 out of the 20 games were from the power 5. Proving that there is line value in both power 5 and non-power 5 conference. 57% of the mistakes we have tracked this season through week’s 2-7 have been from the power 5 conference. Missouri covered by 33 over Idaho. This was our Friday commute podcast play. Now 5-2 ATS on those plays this year! 4 of those wins have covered by 21+ points. Missouri simply dominated this game holding Idaho to 278 yards and 3.76 yards per play while Missouri had 658 yards an over 10 yards per play. Since Missouri’s bye they have looked awfully good in my opnion. Although this does not prove, anything and I would still look to fade them in conference play. They will face off against Uconn this week as 13 point road favorites. Uconn beat them 9-6 in Missouri in 2015 and are playing better themselves. Both teams won’t be looking ahead and are trying to get to a bowl game. Arkansas State covered by 32 over Louisiana Lafayette as they outgained them by 300 yards and over 3 yards per play. Arkansas State seems […]
19 Games Vegas Made Mistakes on College Football Week 7 -Recapping the season so far as I mentioned on twitter it has not been a good year for me, I have gone 33-37 ATS on the year -23.395% luckily NFL has been good as 12-9 ATS +8.691% and we have done well on our commute podcast going 5-1 ATS. Make sure you tune into that again on Friday as we have been giving some really easy winners. Last Frida we gave out Cal +15 and of course they won outright and covered the spread by 50 points! So let’s recap and give you out some value betting options for week #8. This week is as crazy as I can remember. 4 Top 10 teams go down and many other favorites. South Alabama +800 (road) Syracuse +1400 California +639 Boston College +720 (road) LSU +215 (Over #10 Auburn) Tulsa +470 FIU +435 Arizona State +750 Just for fun – $100 parlay would have cashed – $668 million dollars to put things in perspective. The same amount of games as week 5. We had 19 games where the oddsmaker’s were off by more than a TD on the spread. The most we have had was 22 in week #3. Let’s go over […]
College Football Week 5 Vegas Oddsmaker Mistakes -Miami covered the spread by 19.5 points against the spread over Duke. This was a 17-6 game for a long time and it looked like Duke was just one play away, but it never happened despire being just -60 total yards and having 24-19 in the first down advantage. This was a clearly misleading final and the two turnovers had something to do with it as well. Miami, definitely still has a lot to prove to me but they were +3.73 yards per play in this game. Duke was fortunate to run +27 plays in this game, but managed just 1.5 points per trip in Miami territory. Betting Take: Duke still has value moving forward and are going to be a tough opponent. They go on the road to face Virginia (off a bye and Boise win) in what should be a game many sharps fight over. Duke is a 2.5 point favorite and I suspect that line will move closer to a pk. Miami is making up their game against Florida State who did not look good last week at all. We gave it out as our Friday commute play and I hope many of you pushed. I had it […]
