From a College football against the spread perspective the Big Ten betting value leans did not do well in week #5 going 1-3-1 ATS. We saw Michigan State choke one away on the road at Indiana. Iowa lose again, it was a nice ride Iowa. Ohio State looking like Ohio State against a banged up Rutgers team, getting an easy win and cover. Maryland flexed their muscles against a bad Purdue team winning 50-7. Michigan beat Wisconsin in a bit of a snoozer 14-7, but Wisconsin had plenty of chances in this one.
WINNING TEAM SCENARIOS:
Winning Teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home were just 8-14 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season. That includes a 4-4 ATS mark in 2016. Week #5 leans went 1-1 as Wisconsin covered, but Rutgers did not. Week #6 Leans – Ohio State got a 20 point cover and returns home to face Indiana as a 29 point favorite. Lean – Indiana +29.
Winning teams following a loss of 7+ ATS now on the road are 6-4-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season. This scenario does make sense as a team following a big loss would typically be undervalued the next week. Week #6 Lean – Iowa -2 on the road against Minnesota. I really don’t know what to make of Iowa this year. They had so many guys returning, but you lose against Northwestern and that’s just not a good thing. You give up 171 rushing yards to Justin Jackson, a good back, but Iowa certainly capable of shutting down. Now you face Minnesota who lost in OT at Penn State.
LOSING TEAM SCENARIOS
Northwestern with a big win ATS, but are off this week. Purdue with a big loss, Rutgers with a big loss, and Indiana with a big win.
Losing teams following a win of 7+ ATS now at home are 3-7 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season.
Losing teams following a win 7+ ATS now on the road are 8-4 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season. Rutgers lost a week ago, but cut them some slack they have major injury issues and they faced Ohio State off a bye. Indiana fall into this scenario with a big win ATS against Michigan State now they go on the road and are likely a team we want to back as we mentioned earlier.
Losing teams following a loss 7+ ATS now at home are 6-10 ATS since the 2015 season. We faded Indiana and Illinois last week, but were burned. This week’s system tells you to fade Rutgers at home against Michigan. It just does not get any easier for Rutgers. Week 6 lean Michigan -27
Summary of leans for Big Ten week 6 – Indiana +29, Michigan -27, Iowa -2. Good luck
