20* Rays/Cubs Interleague No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Rays and Cubs today. Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. The ball should be flying out, and there should be plenty of runs as a result.

The Rays have been cautious with Drew Rasmussen here down the stretch limiting him to 85 pitches or fewer in three consecutive starts. They aren't going to let him go deep in this one, either, and that will expose this Tampa Bay bullpen.

Collin Rea has allowed 9 earned runs and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Giants and Braves. Rea is 3-3 with a 4.74 ERA in his last 10 starts for the Cubs. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Diamondbacks/Twins OVER 8

The Minnesota Twins have been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch going 18-6-1 OVER in their last 25 games overall. They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 19 of those 25 games. They have terrible pitching, but their lineup continues to produce. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 8 or more combined runs in all six, including 17 combined runs in Game 1 yesterday.

Arizona ranks 5th in baseball scoring 4.95 runs per game. But the Diamondbacks rank 23rd allowing 4.82 runs per game with one of the worst staffs in baseball like the Twins, who are 24th at 4.83 runs per game. The Diamondbacks and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in 9 of their last 11 games overall.

Ryne Nelson is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in two career starts against the Twins, allowing 12 earned runs and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings. Joe Ryan allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone career start against the Diamondbacks. Ryan has allowed 16 earned runs in 18 innings in his last four starts overall for a 8.00 ERA. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Cincinnati Reds -113

The Cincinnati Reds are just 1.5 games back of the New York Mets for the final wild card spot in the National League. They have a lot to play for right now, and I expect ace Hunter Greene to deliver the good again tonight.

Greene is 6-4 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 16 starts this season with 113 K's in 90 1/3 innings. He'll be opposed by Luis Severino, who is 1-9 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 13 home starts for the A's this season. Cincinnati should be a bigger favorite with this huge advantage on the mound tonight. Bet the Reds Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tigers/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Miami Marlins are now 92-58-7 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons. The OVER is 5-1 in Marlins last six home games with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six. These two gas can starting pitchers figure to get rocked by both offenses today.

The Tigers rank 8th in baseball scoring 4.89 runs per game. They should crush Janson Junk, who has a 5.32 ERA in 44 innings at home this season. Junk has allowed 3 earned runs or more in eight consecutive starts and a total of 31 earned runs in 42 innings in those eight starts for a 6.64 ERA during this stretch.

Charlie Morton is 9-10 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 24 starts this season and on his last leg. Morton has allowed 14 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in. He has allowed 10 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Miami. He is 0-2 with an 8.81 ERA in his last three starts in Miami, allowing 16 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

Both lineups should have their way with these two gas can starting pitchers today as we easily cash this OVER 8.5 ticket. The OVER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 13 meetings.

Tomoyuki Sugano is 10-8 with a 4.51 ERA in 27 starts this season, including 3-4 with a 4.75 ERA in 13 road starts. Sugano has allowed a whopping 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 12 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in. He has allowed 5 earned runs and 16 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in two starts against the Blue Jays this season.

Max Scherzer is 5-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 4.50 ERA in eight home starts. Scherzer is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in his last three starts against the Orioles, allowing 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rangers/Mets OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Rangers and Mets tonight. Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left at Citi Field. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 11 or more combined runs in four of them.

The Mets should hang a big number on Patrick Corbin, who is 7-9 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 27 starts this season. Corbin has been at his worst on the road, going 4-5 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 14 starts away from home. He hates facing the Mets, allowing 18 earned runs and 7 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them for a 11.30 ERA.

Brandon Sproat will be making his 2nd career start for the Mets. Sproat allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings to the Reds in his first start on September 7th. Now he must face a red hot Rangers lineup that has scored at least 4 runs in all five games during their current 5-game winning streak. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Oregon State +23.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are getting too much respect due to their big offseason in the transfer portal and the fact that they blew out two cupcakes thus far. They beat one of the worst teams in FCS in Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-7 as 55-point favorites and one of the worst teams in FBS in Kent State 62-14 as 48.5-point favorites.

While it's time to 'sell high' on the Red Raiders, it's time to 'buy low' on the Oregon State Beavers after opening 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS with a pair of misleading losses against much stiffer competition. The Beavers lost 34-15 in their opener as 2.5-point dogs to a Cal team that should be one of the best of the Justin Wilcox era this season. They were only outgained by 43 yards and 0.6 yards per play by Cal in their opener but were -2 in turnovers.

Even more misleading was Oregon State's 36-27 home loss to Fresno State last week as 1-point favorites. The Beavers actually led by 1 with 1:19 remaining, but gave up a FG and then threw a pick-6 on basically the final play of the game. They had 528 total yards and outgained Fresno State by 210 yards for the game. They also somehow missed all four 2-point conversions in the loss.

Texas Tech and Utah came into the season among the favorites to win the Big 12. Well, the Red Raiders have their BIg 12 opener against Utah on deck next week and could be caught looking ahead to that game. At the very least, they won't want to show everything. The Red Raiders don't have motivation to get margin, and I just don't think they are as good as the hype at this point after playing one of the softest schedules in the country. The Beavers are hungry to prove they are better than the 0-2 start and should show up in a big way against a ranked team this week. Bet Oregon State Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas State +15

Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams in the country after a dream season last year that saw them win the Big 12 Championship and give Texas all they could handle in the 12-team playoff. The Sun Devils pulled off the miracle, finishing 1st after being picked to finish last in the Big 12. Now I think they will regress and finish middle of the pack this season.

While the Sun Devils return 17 starters and will be good again, they lose their heart and soul in RB Cam Skattebo, who put the team on his shoulders all season last year. Skattebo rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 TD, while also catching 45 balls for 605 yards and three scores. He made life much easier on QB Sam Leavitt, who will have to shoulder much more of the load this season and I don't think he's ready for it.

I faded Boise State with USF in a similar situation in a 34-7 loss to the Bulls as 6.5-point favorites. They lost Ashton Jeanty and more is on Maddux Madsen this season, and he's not ready for it. I don't think Leavitt is ready for it, either.

The Sun Devils got off to an underwhelming start beating FCS Northern Arizona 38-19 as 29.5-point favorites and not even coming close to covering the spread. They only had one more first down than Northern Arizona and only outgained them by 129 yards.

I released my 25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +7 against Arizona State last week. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead and pulled off the outright upset, 24-21. That was a 2-10 Mississippi State team last season. The Bulldogs outgained the Sun Devils 5.4 to 4.5 yards per play.

Now I'm fading Arizona State again with an underrated Texas State team. G.J. Kinne is doing big things in San Marcos guiding the Bobcats to back-to-back 8-5 seasons. Now in his 3rd season, he has all the pieces in place to have another great year. This team is underrated due to bringing back just five starters, but Kinne did great in the transfer portal finding replacements.

Texas State blasted Eastern Michigan 52-27 in the opener as 14-point favorites. The Bobcats backed it up by upsetting UTSA 43-36 as 4.5-point road underdogs last week. And now they have their sights set on revenge from a 31-28 home loss to Arizona State as 2.5-point dogs last season. They outgained the Sun Devils by 53 yards in the loss to prove they could hang. They also bottled Scattebo up as well as anyone, holding him to 62 rushing yards and 2 TD on 24 carries.

Arizona State is without RB Kyson Brown and WR Jalen Moss, which is a big reason Leavitt has struggled so much thus far. Brown has 84 rushing yards and 72 receiving yards through two games. Moss has been out for each of their first two games and remains doubtful for this one. Texas State has playmakers all over the field and will keep coming, champing at the bit for some revenge in this one. Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Akron/UAB OVER 55

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team. The Blazers allowed 34.3 points per game last season. They return just four starters on D and lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago. They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts again this season, and that was on display in Week 1.

UAB beat Alabama State 52-42 as 21-point favorites with a total of just 53.5. They sailed over that total by 40.5 points finishing with 94 combined points. They gained 520 yards and 9.0 yards per play while allowing 514 yards and 7.9 per play.

UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy. The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season. Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season. He went 18-of-23 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD against Alabama State and is now comfortable in Trent Dilfer's system.

Last week, UAB lost 38-24 at Navy finishing with 62 combined points and going OVER the 59-point closing total. That's a Navy team that likes to slow the game down too, so to get to 62 with Navy was impressive. Kitna threw for 304 yards and 2 TD with 2 INT in the loss. They allowed 463 total yards to the Midshipmen.

This total is only this low at 55 because Akron has been shut out in consecutive games against two dead nuts under teams in Wyoming and Nebraska, two teams that rely on defense and don't play fast on offense. But they allowed 68 points to Nebraska and their defense is soft as butter. I wouldn't be surprised if UAB scores 55 on its own.

But this Akron offense should finally get on track this week taking a big step down in class here after facing very good Nebraska and Wyoming defenses. While the Zips return just two starters on D and will be terrible on D all season, they return five starters on offense including senior QB Ben Finley. He threw for 2,604 yards and 16 TD last season for the Zips, and he'll have one of the biggest games of his career this week trying to keep up in a shootout with the Blazers. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +5.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores were one of the most improved teams in the country last season. They went 7-6 with five outright upsets as underdogs last season. Now they have 17 starters back from that team, and this is the best Vanderbilt team I can remember in a long time.

It's largely due to having one of the best leaders in the country in senior QB Diego Pavia. He just refuses to lose and his teammates follow him. Paiva is 8-2 ATS as an underdog at Vanderbilt, and he worked his magic at New Mexico State prior leading the Aggies to an appearance in the conference championship game.

South Carolina figures to take a big step back this season. The Gamecocks only return 12 starters this season and lost 5 NFL draft picks on defense alone, plus four more who signed as undrafted free agents. They are without CB Judge Collier who was one of their top returnees on D.

These teams already have a common opponent in Virginia Tech. South Carolina beat Virginia Tech 24-11 on a neutral despite getting outgained by 8 yards. The Gamecocks got a late punt return TD that was the difference. Vanderbilt blasted Virginia Tech 44-20 on the road last week. This was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Commodores outgained the Hokies 490 to 248, or by 242 total yards. They also outgained the Hokies 8.6 to 4.1 yards per play.

Last week, South Carolina had another misleading 38-10 win over South Carolina State as 42.5-point favorites. They failed to cover the spread by 14.5 points despite getting not one, not two, but three non-offensive touchdowns. They had two punt return TD's and a fumbled return TD.

LaNorris Sellers is a good QB, but he doesn't have nearly as much help this season. The Gamecocks have only scored 34 of their 62 total points this season on offense despite the weak schedule. They only managed 253 total yards against South Carolina State. They are averaging only 5.2 yards per play on the season while the Commodores are averaging 8.4 yards per play. Wrong team favored here. Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Arkansas/Ole Miss ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

Quarterbacks and offenses in general tend to take big leaps in Year 2 under Bobby Petrino. Petrino returned to Arkansas as offensive coordinator last season, and he is back again this season. Talented QB Taylen Green figures to have a massive senior year after throwing for 3,154 yards and 15 TD last season, while also rushing for 602 yards and 8 scores.

Green and this Arkansas offense are off to a great start beating Alabama A&M 52-7. This was a 45-7 game entering the 4th quarter before the Hogs called off the dogs. Green threw for 322 yards and 6 TD in the win. He backed it up with another 4 TD performance in a 56-14 win over Arkansas State last week. This Arkansas offense is a juggernaut, but I think the defense will be poor again this season, so the Hogs will find themselves in a lot of shootouts.

There will probably be no tougher test for this Arkansas defense than this Ole Miss offense run by Lane Kiffin. Ole Miss beat Arkansas 63-31 for 94 combined points last season and scored pretty much every time they touched the football while racking up 694 total yards in the process.

No question this Ole Miss offense won't be as potent this season with the loss to Jaxson Dart, but Kiffin always gets the most out of his QB's, and Ustin Simmons is the next one in line. Simmons threw for 341 yards and 3 TD in a 63-7 win over Georgia State in the opener.

I think the fact that Ole Miss only beat Kentucky 30-23 last week is keeping this total lower than it should be. But Kentucky shortened the game by running the play clock down every time, which has been their key to keeping games against Ole Miss competitive in recent years. Bobby Petrino will have no interest in that, and he doesn't mind getting in a shootout. This should be one of the most entertaining, high-scoring games of the season. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +24.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the Oklahoma Sooners. They are coming off a 24-13 home win as 4-point favorites against Michigan last week. They have an even bigger game on deck against Auburn in their SEC opener next week, which will be Jackson Arnold's revenge game. They just want to get in and get out of Temple with a win and aren't concerned with getting margin.

I have a lot of respect for Temple first-year head coach K.C. Keeler with all the success he had a Sam Houston State. He won a FCS national title with Delaware, and he won the FCS national title with Sam Houston State. Temple is very lucky to have him, and the Owls are already showing major improvement through two games this season.

After crushing UMass 42-10 as 2-point favorites in their opener, the Owls blasted Howard 55-7 as 28.5-point favorites last week. So they have covered the spread by a combined 49.5 points in their first two games, which just shows how undervalued they are to open the season.

QB Evan Simon has some of the best numbers in the country completing 77.1% of his passes with a 9-to-0 TD/INT ration. RB Jevyon Ducker has rushed for 215 yards and a TD while averaging 7.4 per carry. They have two 100-yard receivers in WR Bermudez (8, 111, 1 TD) and TE Clarke (6, 119, 2 TD). Six different receivers have caught a TD pass from Simon.

The improvement on defense courtesy of many transfers has been the most impressive. The Owls were terrible defensively last season allowing 35.4 points per game. They are allowing just 8.5 points per game, 211.5 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play through two games. They are good enough to hang around for four quarters given the obvious flat spot for the Sooners. The Owls will be the much more motivated team Saturday, especially after losing 51-3 in their opener at Oklahoma last season. Bet Temple Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on South Florida +17.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season. Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury. He was lost for the season after five starts, and while the offense was still in good hands with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown. Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both. The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

The biggest improvement should come from a defense that returns eight starters. Each of the top three tacklers are back, and they added a lot of talent in the portal. Each unit looks like the best of the Golesh era, and DC Todd Orlando should get the most out of them.

I cashed USF +6.5 over Boise State in the opener in a 34-7 upset victory. Brown went 16-of-24 passing for 210 yards, while also rushing for 43 yards and two scores. He also had a TD called back by penalty. The Bulls were on cruise control in the 2H with the game in hand.

I cashed USF +18.5 last week in a 18-16 upset road win at Florida. There was nothing fluky about that win as the Bulls outgained the Gators 391 to 355, or by 36 total yards. Brown threw for 263 yards and a TD while also rushing for 66 yards in the win. He is one of the best QB's in the country that nobody knows about.

If the Bulls playing anyone other than another in-state rival and Top 5 team in the country in Miami, they would probably have a letdown this week. But they'll have no problem getting up for this game against the Hurricanes, and I fully expect them to give Miami a run for its money today.

Miami is getting a lot of respect for its 27-24 win over Notre Dame in the opener. That's a Notre Dame team that was breaking in a freshman QB and with a much weaker defense than last year and new defensive coordinator. Miami came back with a lackluster 45-3 win as 53.5-point favorites over Bethune-Cookman last week. They just cannot be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers as Mario Cristobal is the king of underachieving. Miami has a much bigger game against Florida on deck next week. Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* Clemson/Georgia Tech ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech +3.5

Georgia Tech is a better team than Clemson from what I've seen thus far. They should not be home underdogs in a game they will win outright, though we will take the points for some insurance.

Georgia Tech returned 14 starters this season. They pulled off upsets over then-No. 4 Miami 28-23 as 9-point dogs, and they nearly upset then-No. 6 Georgia in a 44-42 (8 OT) loss in the regular season finale last year. They returned QB Haynes Kings and RB Jamal Haynes, their two biggest playmakers on offense.

Georgia Tech opened with a 27-20 road win at Colorado. The Yellow Jackets managed to cover as 3.5-point favorites despite being -3 in turnovers. This was a misleading final score to say the least as the Yelow Jackets outgained the Buffaloes 463 to 305, or by 158 total yards. They also outgained them 6.8 to 5.1 yards per play.

King sat out a 59-12 win over Gardner Webb as 37.5-point favorites last week for precautionary reasons. Backup QB Philo threw for 373 yards in his place. King is expected to return for the Clemson game, and he is arguably the best leader of any QB in the country. His team will rally around his return.

Clemson lost 17-10 as 5.5-point home favorites to LSU in the opener. LSU went on to a lackluster 23-7 home win over Louisiana Tech as 36.5-point favorites, so that win looks even worse now. But what looks even worse than that was a 27-16 home win over Troy as 30.5-point favorites last week by the Tigers. Clemson only outgained Troy 316 to 301, or by 15 total yards. The Tigers even benefited from 3 INT by Troy QB Crowder and still couldn't put them away.

A big reason this Clemson offense has struggled is because they have been without their best receiver in Antonio Williams, who had 75 receptions for 904 yards and 11 TD last season. Williams remains doubtful for this game, and fellow starting LT Tristan Leight is doubful as well. Starting safety Khalil Barnes (60 tackles, 4 INT) last year is likely to miss this game as well. Wrong team favored here. Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Arkansas State OVER 55

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team under offensive-minded head coach Butch Jones. The Red Wolves allowed 32.2 points per game and 462 yards per game last season. You won't think they could be any worse, but they might be this season with just three starters back on D. They lose each of their top 11 tacklers from last season.

But the Red Wolves have a lot of talent returning on offense including QB Jaylen Raynor, who completed 62% of his passes for 2,783 yards and 16 TD last season, while also rushing for 387 yards and 3 scores. Also back is WR Corey Rucker, who had 1,053 yards and 7 TD last season.

To no surprise, Arkansas State was in a shootout in Week 1 beating SE Missouri State 42-24 for 66 combined points. Raynor went 26-of-32 passing for 345 yards and 3 TD. Their D allowed 365 yards and 5.4 per play against a terrible FCS team. It was an even bigger shootout last week in a 56-14 loss at Arkansas and 70 combined points. The Razorbacks racked up 630 yards on this soft Red Wolves defense.

The Iowa State Cyclones will hang another big number on Arkansas State. They beat the Red Wolves 52-7 for 59 combined points at home last season, and they should come close to hanging 50 again. They beat South Dakota 55-7 in Week 2 with a similar level of defense. The other two games were against two top notch defenses in Iowa and Kansas State, which were lower scoring and are keeping this total lower than it should be. Rocco Becht is legit one of the best QB's in the country, completing 68% of his passes for 595 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far.

It's also true Iowa State's defense has benefited from playing a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses thus far in K-State, Iowa and South Dakota. I think Raynor and company can get two or three touchdowns on this Iowa State defense to help contribute to us cashing this OVER ticket. Temps will be in the 90's with no wind so it will be perfect scoring conditions, plus both defenses will get tired in the 2H. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Missouri State +28

The SMU Mustangs are overvalued this season due to making the 12-team playoff last year after taking advantage of a very week ACC schedule. SMU only returns 12 starters and loses Brashard Smith who rushed for 1,332 yards and 14 TD last season. They also lose their top two receivers.

SMU beat East Texas A&M 42-13 as 50.5-point favorites in what was a very misleading final in Week 1. But SMU had two pick 6's and only outgained lowly East Texas A&M by 51 yards! That's the same East Texas A&M team that went on to lose 77-3 to Florida State last week!

The spot is terrible for SMU. The Mustangs blew a late 14-point lead against in-state rival Baylor and lost 48-45 (OT) in Week 2. They allowed 601 total yards to the Bears and were outgained by 143 yards. I question how much they will have left in the tank this week, I like fading teams coming off a very close loss in a big game rather than fading a team off a very close win in a big game. There tends to be more of a hangover effect for the team coming off the loss.

SMU WR Jordan Hudson, their 3rd-leading receiver from last year, is doubtful after sustaining an injury against East Texas A&M and sitting out the Baylor game. Injuries are really piling up on defense as starting LB Alex Kilgore, starting LB Zakye Barker and starting DE Cam Robertson are all questionable. They have another in-state rivalry game with TCU on deck next week, so this is a sandwich spot for them, and they could play it cautious with these injured players because of it.

Missouri State is in its first season as a FBS program. But the Bears are set up much better for success than most teams making the leap to the FBS level. They have a 3rd-year head coach in Ryan Beard and some stability. They also return their best player in QB Jacob Clark, who threw for 3,604 yards with a 26-to-6 TD/INT ratio last season.

I think USC is a playoff contender this season, and Missouri State is undervalued now after a 73-13 loss at USC in the opener. That came to fruition last week when the Bears went into Marshall and pulled the 21-20 win as 7-point underdogs. That game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as Missouri State outgained Marshall 474 to 274, or by 200 total yards. Clark went 21-of-31 passing for 359 yards and 3 TD with one INT in the win.

There will be no letdown for the Bears after their first FBS win as they now get to play their home opener, and fans will pack the stadium in anticipation with a team from the ACC coming to town. No question the Bears will be more motivated for this game than the Mustangs, who will get more of a fight than they bargained for this week. Bet Missouri State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oregon State/Texas Tech OVER 60.5

Texas Tech looks like a dead nuts OVER team this season. The Red Raiders put up 37.6 points per game and 463 yards per game last season. They returned 10 starters on offense this season including QB Behren Morton, who had a 27-to-8 TD/INT ratio last season. They brought in offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich, who led Texas State's up-tempo, high-powered offense under G.J. Kinne over the last two seasons.

The Red Raiders allowed 34.8 points per game and 460 yards per game last season. They do have 11 starters back on defense, but that's no necessarily a good thing. They opened with two easy OVERS beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-7 for 74 combined points and Kent State 62-14 for 76 combined points. This total of 60.5 points isn't high enough this week, either.

I like what I've seen from Oregon State on offense. After losing 34-15 to California in the opener, they lost 36-27 to Fresno State last week for 63 combined points. They racked up 528 total yards on Fresno State and really should have won the game. They missed four 2-point conversions in that contest as well.

Oregon State QB Malik Murphy is doing his part throwing for 615 yards and 4 TD in two games. They have a stud RB in Anthony Hankerson, and two sud WR's in Trent Walker (16 receptions, 235 yards) and Taz Reddicks (12, 174) for him to throw to. The defense is a mess after allowing 29.9 points per game last season, they have allowed 35 points per game through two games this season. But I think they can keep up in a shootout with the Red Raiders as these teams trade scores for four quarters. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pitt Panthers were 7-0 last season before QB Eli Holstein got injured. They went 0-6 over their final six games with three losses by 5 points or fewer. That poor finish put a big chip on their shoulder in the offseason, and they are undervalued to start the season as a result.

The Panthers are loaded with 16 returning starters as this could be one of the best teams of the Pat Narduzzi era as he enters his 11th season. Holstein is now a sophomore and figures to be one of the best QB's in the country. He has completed 70.6% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio while leading the Panthers to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start with wins over Duquesne 61-9 as 39.5-point favorites and Central Michigan 45-17 as 21.5-point favorites.

West Virginia looks like one of the worst Power 4 teams in the country under first-year head coach Rich Rodriquez. Only 10 starters are back, and they lost top RB Jahiem White (845 yards, 7 TD LY) and starting WR Jaden Bray (7 receptions, 95 yards TY) to season-ending injuries last week against Ohio. The Mountaineers are full of transfers who don't even know much about this rivalry with Pitt, and I question their motivation compared to that of the Panthers as well.

After opening with a 45-3 win over Robert Morris as 40.5-point favorites, the Mountaineers were upset 17-10 at Ohio as 3.5-point favorites. But they should have lost by even more as that was a very misleading final score. They were outgained 429 to 250 by Ohio, or by 179 total yards. The Bobcats three three 2H interceptions or would have won by more. That's an Ohio team that lost a lot of key players from last season including most of their D and also had a first-year head coach. Like Ohio, Pitt should easily win this game by a TD or more. Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +105

The Arizona Diamondbacks are just 2 games behind the Mets for the final wild card spot in the National League. They continue to battle, while the Minnesota Twins are just ready for their season to be over. The Twins are 3-9 in their last 12 games overall. Wrong team favored here.

Nabil Crismatt is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in four starts and one relief appearance this season, allowing just 9 earned runs in 25 innings. Bailey Ober is 5-7 with a 5.08 ERA in 24 starts for the Twins this season, including 2-3 with a 5.71 ERA in 13 day game starts. Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -106

The Cincinnati Reds trail the New York Mets by just 1.5 games for the final wild card spot in the National League. They will be highly motivated for that reason, plus to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the A's.

Nick Lodolo is 8-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 5-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 14 road starts. Luis Morales is coming off his worst start of the season for the A's, allowing 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings of a 7-0 home loss to the Red Sox on September 8th. Bet the Reds Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Cubs OVER 7

The Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own today against Adrian Houser, who is 3-2 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in his last nine starts. Houser has allowed 12 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in. He has allowed 7 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.

Shota Imanaga has allowed at least 3 earned runs in three consecutive starts and six of his last nine starts overall. Imanaga has allowed at least one homer in six consecutive starts and a total of 13 homers in his last nine starts. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Giants/Cowboys NFC East ANNIHILATOR on OVER 44.5

The Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team this season. They have a very good offense with a healthy Dak Prescott, plenty of playmakers on the outside and a solid offensive line. But they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They traded away Micah Parsons even after ranking as a bottom 2 defense in every major statistical category last season with him off the field. They will be without arguably their 2nd-best defensive player in CB DaRon Bland, who they just gave a shiny big new contract too right after trading Parsons as he got injured last week.

The Eagles were torching this Dallas defense scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions last week. But then the rain delay happened, and it's almost like clockwork offenses slow down coming out of a delay, and it favors defense. I know the Giants looked poor on offense last week, but that was Russell Wilson's first start with his new team against a solid Commanders defense. Wilson and company will have a lot more success this week.

The Giants were supposed to have an improved defense with one of the best defensive lines in the NFL this season, but that didn't show in Week 1. The Giants allowed 432 total yards and 7.0 yards per play to the Commanders, who came back and looked atrocious on offense against Parsons and the Packers on Thursday. The Cowboys will get their points, too.

The OVER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Giants and Cowboys in Dallas. They have combined for at least 47 points in all six meetings inside the Jerry Dome, which is perfect conditions for scoring. This total of 44.5 is too short today. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seahawks/Steelers OVER 40

The Pittsburgh Steelers go from being a dead nuts UNDER team the last few seasons under Mike Tomlin to what appears to be a dead nuts OVER team early this season. But oddsmakers are still lining their totals like they are the same team they were last year. Last week's total was set at 38, and both teams nearly covered it on their own in a 34-32 win by the Steelers over the Jets and 66 combined points.

The Steelers finally have a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers for the first time since Big Ten retired. He also has a No. 1 receiver in the way of DK Metcalf, who is going to want some revenge against his former team in this one. Rodgers threw 4 TD passes and found Metcalf 4 times for 83 yards in the win over the Jets.

More concerning is a Pittsburgh defense that allowed 32 points, 394 total yards and 6.5 yards per play to Justin Fields and a Jets offense that wasn't expected to be very good. They went into the game missing some players, and now they are missing even more defenders heading into this game against Seattle. They will be without three starters in CB Joey Porter Jr., SS DeShon Elliott and DE Derrick Harman. They have a mediocre defense at best without these guys.

Sam Darnold and this Seattle offense should get on track this week after a tough showing against the 49ers, who have one of the most improved defenses in the league under Robert Saleh as their new defensive coordinator. But the Seahawks also only ran 49 plays in the game compared to 71 for the 49ers, so they just couldn't get in a rhythm. Look for Darnold and the running game to find their rhythm against Pittsburgh.

More concerning is a Seattle defense that gave up 384 yards and 5.4 yards per play to a 49ers offense that was missing so many key weapons. They lost George Kittle early, and they were already without Brandon Aiyuk. JuJuan Jennings suffered a shoulder injury, and Brock Purdy suffered toe and shoulder injuries that will keep him out for a few weeks. Yet still the 49ers moved the ball up and down the field on this Seattle defense, which will be without top CB Devon Witherspoon for this game. It doesn't take much to get to 40 points in today's NFL that is built for offense. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Eagles/Chiefs UNDER 47

It's safe to say the Eagles and Chiefs are familiar with one another after playing in two of the past three Super Bowls. They know each other inside and out, and I think that favors defense over offense.

This elite Philadelphia defense held the Chiefs to a total of 6 points with under 3 minutes remaining in the Super Bowl before calling off the dogs. I think they will have similar success shutting down the Chiefs considering they are without WR Worthy, WR Rashee Rice and WR Jalen Royals for this one. All three were expected to play big roles for the Chiefs this season. Now they are down to Hollywood Brown, the elder JuJu Smith-Schuster and the even older Travis Kelce as Mahomes' main weapons. He just can't have much success with this weak group of playmakers in their current form this week.

There are some concerns with this Philadelphia offense after being held to 24 points, 302 total yards and 5.0 per play against the Cowboys last week. The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season without Micah Parsons. The Eagles are going through a change in coordinators after losing Kellen Moore to the Saints. The Chiefs should be able to hold them in check enough to keep this thing UNDER 47 combined points. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Eagles/Chiefs Super Bowl Rematch on Philadelphia ML -114

The Kansas City Chiefs will want revenge on the Philadelphia Eagles after getting embarrassed by them in the Super Bowl. The problem is they don't have the horses to get that revenge, and the Eagles remain the most talented team in the NFL if it's not the Baltimore Ravens. I backed the Eagles with success in the Super Bowl, and I'm backing them again for a number of reasons in the rematch.

The Chiefs struggle with defenses that can get pressure without blitzing, which is exactly what the Eagles did to them in the Super Bowl. The Eagles led 40-6 before calling off the dogs and allowing a couple garbage TD's in the final three minutes with the game already decided in a 40-22 final. They harassed Patrick Mahomes for four quarters without blitzing as he had one of the worst games of his career.

The Eagles held the Cowboys to 20 points in the opener despite losing one of their best players in DE Jalen Carter in the 1Q after spitting on Dak Prescott. Carter is back this week, and the Eagles are at full strength defensively in the health department. The Eagles are also at full strength on offense with the exception of Dallas Goedert, but they have a deep TE room and he won't be missed too much. The Eagles scored touchdowns on each of their first three drives against the Cowboys, and a weather delay is the only thing that could slow them down.

The Chiefs are coming off a 27-21 loss to the Chargers in Brazil as 3-point favorites. They allowed 394 total yards and 6.7 yards per play to the Chargers as their defense is clearly taking a step back this season. But more concerning is the lack of weapons on offense after Xavier Worthy was lost to a shoulder injury after running into Travis Kelce, who is clearly on his last leg.

The Chiefs will be without WR Worthy, WR Rashee Rice and WR Jalen Royals for this one. All three were expected to play big roles for the Chiefs this season. Now they are down to Hollywood Brown, the elder JuJu Smith-Schuster and the even older Travis Kelce as Mahomes' main weapons. He just can't have much success with this weak group of playmakers in their current form this week.

The Chiefs were 17-0 in their last 17 one-score games prior to finally having that streak end against the Chargers last week. I think their luck has run out, and they were clearly due some regression and it will continue to hit them time and time again this season, including in this game against a much superior Eagles squad that is favored for good reason on the road. Bet the Eagles Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6

The Cowboys were 3-point favorites on the lookahead line in this game. It has been adjusted up a full 3 points to Cowboys -6 now after one week of results. I think it's time to 'buy low' on the Giants and 'sell high' on the Cowboys this week.

To put things into perspective, the Giants were 6-point road underdogs to the Commanders in their 21-6 loss last week. So this line is saying that the Cowboys are equal to the Commanders. That's just not the case as I have Washington power rated 3 points better than Dallas.

That's especially not the case now that the Cowboys traded away Micah Parson, and they will be without arguably their 2nd-best defensive player in CB DaRon Bland, who they just gave a shiny big new contract too right after trading Parsons. The fact is this Dallas defense is going to be one of the worst in the NFL this season. They rank dead last or 2nd to last in all major statistical categories defensively last season when Parsons was not on the field.

The Eagles were torching this Dallas defense scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions last week. But then the rain delay happened, and it's almost like clockwork offenses slow down coming out of a delay, and it favors defense. I know the Giants looked poor on offense last week, but that was Russell Wilson's first start with his new team against a solid Commanders defense. Wilson and company will have a lot more success this week.

Unlike the Cowboys, the Giants have what should be one of the better defenses in the NFL this season. They certainly have the best defensive line that can help mask their secondary. They held the Commanders to 21 points last week which was pretty respectable considering what Jaden Daniels and company did to the rest of the league last year. Bet the Giants Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee Titans +6

I love the spot for the Tennessee Titans this week. They are a desperate 0-1 team playing a 1-0 team, and the 0-1 teams in this situation have been great bets in Week 2. This is one of my favorite spots to back the Titans.

They had their chances last week on the road against Denver but a couple coaching blunders likely cost them a chance to win. I think Brian Callahan will make the necessary corrections for his mistakes, and I actually though Cam Ward played reasonably well for a No. 1 pick making his first career start on the road in altitude in a hostile atmosphere in Denver.

The Titans lost 20-12 in Denver but this was a 1-point game late in the 4th quarter. The Titans had their chances to tie it but Ward just kept barely missing his receivers on seem routes. The timing was a little off, and I think they will work on that timing this week and be much better at home against the Rams.

One of the best kept secrets in the NFL is that the Titans have one of the best defenses in the league. Despite going 3-14 last season, the Titans ranked 2nd in the NFL in total defense allowing 311.2 yards per game. They just had terrible QB play on offense and the worst special teams in the NFL. Both will be improved greatly this season with Ward at QB and more emphasis on special teams, plus the Titans will remain one of the best defenses in the NFL. They made Bo Nix look like a rookie last week intercepting him twice and limiting the Broncos to 20 points, 317 total yards and 4.5 yards per play.

The Rams are coming off a hard-fought 14-9 win over the Texans at home in Week 1. Matthew Stafford has been out with a back injury and barely practicing with the team, so it's no surprise the Rams aren't sharp offensively in the early going. They managed just 296 yards and 14 points against the Texans, who were banged up on offense.

I think Stafford and company have an even tougher test this week going on the road for the first time in what will be a hostile atmosphere in Nashville with the anticipation for Cam Ward's home debut. I also could see the Rams looking ahead to a huge game against the Eagles next week. The Eagles knicked the Rams out of the playoffs and they obviously would love some revenge. That game is much more important to them than this one. It's also their first 10:00 AM body clock game of the season out East. Bet the Titans Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +8.5

I grabbed the Jets +8.5 Sunday night and would still play it down to +7 as a 20*. But at +6.5 or worse it would drop to a 15*. This was the first play I released to my clients this week as I anticipated the line wouldn't last long. This is the perfect spot to back the Jets.

I love backing 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in Week 2. But these teams should have their records reversed. The Jets deserved to beat the Steelers in Week 1, while the Bills deserved to lose to the Ravens in Week 1. Instead, the Jets lost by 2 while the Bills won by 1. If these records were reversed this line wouldn't have been as high as it was to open.

The Jets outgained the Steelers 394 to 271 last week and 6.5 to 5.4 yards per play. But they lost 34-32 despite dominating the box score. The Bills miraculously scored three times late in the 4th quarter to overcome a 15-point deficit in a 41-40 win. They were outgained 9.0 to 6.5 yards per play. That's right, their defense gave up 9.0 yards per play for the game!

This Buffalo defense is going to be even worse off this week due to injuries. They will be without starting DT Ed Oliver, while starting CB's Tre'Davious White and Taron Johnson, along with LB Shaq Thompson are all questionable. This is a very poor Buffalo defense and I think it will be their undoing as the season progresses.

The Jets also have the element of surprise with Justin Fields at QB and new schemes on both offense and defense under first-year head coach Aaron Glenn. Their offense made a very good Pittsburgh defense look mediocre last week with 394 yards and 6.5 yards per play against it. Fields has always gotten a bad rap due to his lack of playmakers in Chicago and Pittsburgh prior. He threw for 218 yards and a TD while also rushing for 48 yards and 2 TD against the Steelers.

The Bills are fat and happy after that comeback win over the Ravens on Sunday Night Football. They won't be nearly as motivated or focused to beat the Jets this week. They also used a lot of energy in that comeback win, and they are paying for it with a lot of injuries. The Jets are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Bills in New York with all three games decided by 6 points or fewer. Bet the Jets Sunday.