Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Old Dominion +2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on Old Dominion. The Monarchs have faced the 34th-toughest schedule in the country to this point with eight true road games and only three home games. Seven of those eight road games came against teams ranked inside the Top 126 in Kenpom.

After five straight road games, the Monarchs will be happy to be back home tonight for the first time since November 21st. They beat Morgan State 88-56 in that contest and are 3-0 at home this season.

James Madison is 7-4 this season against the 304th-ranked schedule in the country. The Dukes' seven wins all came against teams rank 146th or worse. They are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road including bad losses to Longwood by 10 and LIU by 9. They also lost by 16 at George Mason and by 14 at Akron.

The Dukes are coming off two narrow wins over two terrible teams in NC Central by 5 as 16-point home favorites and Norfolk State by 1 as 10.5-point home favorites. When you compare the strength of schedule difference and the results up to this point, the Monarchs should not be home underdogs to the Dukes in this one. Bet Old Dominion Wednesday.

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20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oakland/Northern Kentucky OVER 163

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team this season. The Golden Grizzlies rank 28th in adjusted tempo, 78th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense. Oakland is 8-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 164 or more combined points in seven of their 10 lined games.

Northern Kentucky also profiles as an OVER team ranking 89th in adjusted tempo. The Norse are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall finishing with 175 combined points with Cleveland State and 156 in their other two games.

Oakland games are averaging 169.4 combined points per game this season. Northern Kentucky games are averaging 159.6 combined points per game. Neither team has even played an OT game this season. This total of 163 is too short for a game involving these two teams, especially with it expected to be close and fouls likely to factor in late. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Louisiana/Delaware Ventures Bowl ANNIHILATOR on OVER 61.5

Delaware is a dead nuts OVER team with a very good, pass-happy offense that plays fast and a terrible defense. The Blue Hens are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 63 or more combined points four times. This total of 61.5 is too short for a bowl game involving Delaware.

Louisiana is 5-0 OVER in its last five games overall. The Rajin Cajun's have a very good rushing attack on offense that will give Delaware problems. It's a Delaware defense that recently allowed 255 rushing yards to Jacksonville State, 282 to Liberty and 263 to Wake Forest. The Blue Hens rank 110th in the country allowing 4.8 yards per carry this season.

Louisiana ranks 108th in the country allowing 6.0 yards per play. Most concerning is the fact that the Rajin' Cajuns just allowed 516 total yards to Louisiana-Monroe in their season finale. ULM is one of the worst offensive teams in the country, ranking 120th in total offense and 130th in scoring this season.

You can just imagine what this high-powered Delaware offense is going to do to this suspect Louisiana defense tonight. The Blue Hens rank 26th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.2 seconds. QB Nick Minicuccci has thrown for 3,495 yards and 22 TD while also rushing for 10 scores. They are coming off a 61-31 home win over UTEP for 92 combined points to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.

Louisiana has scored at least 30 points in four consecutive games to close out the season during its current 4-game winning streak to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible. So both teams are riding their offense to the finish, and both teams will ride their offense in this bowl game. Both teams should get into the 30's in this one. Bet the OVER in the Ventures Bowl Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/Bulls OVER 241.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in pace and 24th in defensive rating. The face the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, who rank 9th in pace and 10th in offensive rating and should hang a big number on the Bulls tonight.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Bulls and Cavaliers with 248 or more combined points in all four meetings. They have combined for 250, 248, 256 and 270 points in those four meetings. This total of 241.5 is too short tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +10

The New Orleans Pelicans have quietly gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall to be one of the best covering teams in the NBA over the last month. They have gotten healthy and they are proving they have the offense to play with almost anyone.

I think this is a massive hangover spot for the Houston Rockets. They put a lot into their last game against the Denver Nuggets but lost 128-125 (OT). It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice as they gave up a FT on a dead ball foul in the final seconds to go to OT.

The last three road games for the Rockets have been concerning as they have lout outright as favorites in all three. They lost that game as 1-point favorites at Denver, they lost 122-109 as 6.5-point favorites at Dallas and lost 133-125 as 11-point favorites at Utah. Asking them to win by 11-plus points to beat us tonight is asking too much. Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana Pacers +5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the New York Knicks. They just won their first trophy of any kind since 1973 by taking down the NBA Cup with a comeback win over the San Antonio Spurs in Las Vegas. You can only imagine the kind of celebrating they did Tuesday night in Vegas, and now they have to travel to Indiana two days later still hungover.

It looks as if head coach Mike Brown is likely to rest almost everyone for this game. Towns (22.1 PPG, 11.8 RPG), Anunoby (16.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG) and Hart (12.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.9 APG) have all been downgraded to questionable for this game. Getting downgraded to questionable is more like doubtful, while being upgraded to questionable is almost like probable.

The Pacers have quietly gone 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They would love nothing more than to beat the NBA Cup champs, and they will be inspired to do so. Their task gets much easier with all of these guys out for the Knicks as McBride and Shamet are both out already, so they will likely be without 6 key contributors as Mitchell Robinson is downgraded to questionable as well. This version of the Pacers is better than the version of the Knicks that will be on the court for this one. Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Utah Jazz +7

The Utah Jazz can beat anyone at home. They are 7-7 SU & 10-4 ATS at home this season. Only four times in 14 home games have they lost by more than 7 points, and two of those came against the best team in the NBA in the THunder. The others came against Atlanta by 10 and Houston.

But the Jazz also upset Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Indiana and the Clippers at home. And they can hang with the Lakers at home, which they have proven once already this season in a 108-106 loss as 9-point dogs on November 23rd. Utah is now 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with the Lakers with losses by 1 and 2 points, and an upset win by 12 as 9-point dogs.

This isn't the best version of the Lakers they will be facing Thursday night, either. The Lakers will be without two starters and two of their best players in Austin Reaves (27.8 PPG, 6.7 APG, 5.8 RPG) and De'Andre Ayton (15.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG). The Lakers have no business being 7-point road favorites without these two. Bet the Jazz Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Washington Wizards +14.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the San Antonio Spurs. After upsetting both the Lakers in the quarterfinals and the Thunder in the semifinals of the NBA Cup, the Spurs blew a 4th quarter lead and fell short in the championship game in a 124-113 loss to the New York Knicks in Las Vegas.

The Spurs will be flat as a pancake tonight in their first game back from that trip to Las Vegas which could only have been a distraction. They could care less about beating Washington, and they would need to be fully focused to win this game by 15 or more points, which is what it's going to take to beat us.

Washington is coming off two impressive games in a row. The Wizards blew a late lead in a 130-126 home loss to Cleveland as 15.5-point dogs, then bounced back with a 108-89 road win at Indiana as 10-point dogs. There's reason to believe they will keep playing solid basketball tonight, not the least of which is the fact that they are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off.

But the biggest reason to be excited about the Wizards is the healthy return of their best player in C Alex Sarr (19.9 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG) to the lineup for this one. Sarr last played on November 28th. They have been much more competitive with him in the lineup than without him. Sarr, McColum (18.9 PPG, 40.3% 3-pointers), George (14.9 PPG, 43.9% 3-pointers) and Johnson (11.2 PPG, 39.8% 3-pointers) give the Wizards a solid nucleus when healthy. Bub Carrington (8.8 PPG, 4.4 APG) and Marvin Bagley (9.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) are also key contributors who are healthy right now. Bet the Wizards Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockets/Pelicans OVER 234

The Pelicans are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall largely due to playing small ball and no defense. The Pelicans and their opponents combined for at least 241 points at the end of regulation in seven of those 10 games. The Pelicans rank 12th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

New Orleans has really been an OVER team at home. Indeed, the Pelicans are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 home games going for 241 or more combined points in seven of their last eight home games. This total of 234 is too short for a game involving the Pelicans at home.

The Rockets actually rank 3rd in the NBA in offensive rating and can basically name their number against the Pelicans tonight. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 232 or more combined points in four of those five meetings, and 239 or more in three of the last four. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Missouri State/Arkansas State Xbox Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 54.5

One hidden advantage here to backing the OVER is that the Xbox Bowl will be played indoors at the Ford Center at the Star, which is the practice facility of the Dallas Cowboys. It will be perfect conditions for a shootout, and both teams have been trending OVER to close out the season.

Missouri State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games. The Bears beat UTEP 38-24 for 62 combined points. They racked up 436 total yards in victory. They lost 41-34 to Kennesaw State for 75 combined points. They had 535 total yards while allowing 500 yards to the Owls. And last time out they lost 42-30 to Louisiana Tech for 72 combined points. They had 416 yards but allowed 475 to the Bulldogs, including 388 rushing.

Arkansas State is 2-0 OVER in its last two games. The Red Wolves lost 34-30 to Louisiana for 64 combined points. They had 394 total yards in defeat. They won 30-29 at App State to become bowl eligible in their finale for 59 combined points. They had 448 total yards while allowing 453 yards to the Mountaineers.

I love that both teams have veteran QB's who are going to ball out in this bowl game. Missouri State senior QB Jacob Clark is one of the more underrated QB's in the country. He has completed 65.1% of his passes for 2,895 yards with a 24-to-11 TD/INT ratio. Arkansas State junior QB Jaylen Raynor has completed 67.2% of his passes for 3,076 yards with a 16-to-11 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 439 yards and seven scores.

Both offenses are ahead of both defenses. Arkansas State ranks 108th in total defense at 416 yards per game and 116th at 6.1 yards per play. Missouri State ranks 88th in scoring defense at 28.3 points per game, 72nd in total defense at 384.8 yards per game and 97th at 5.9 yards per play. The Bears are 112th allowing 4.8 yards per carry, while the Red Wolves are 103rd at 4.7 yards per carry allowed. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Rams/Seahawks NFC West No-Brainer on UNDER 45.5

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 45.5 ticket between the Rams and Seahawks Thursday night. There will be rain throughout, but the bigger factor is 17 MPH sustained winds with gusts in the 30's. It's going to be hard for both offenses to throw the football, so this game will be played with a lot of heavy formations and mostly on the ground with a short passing game.

Seattle ranks 2nd in scoring defense at 17.3 points per game, 4th in total defense at 283.4 yards per game and 1st at 4.7 yards per play. They are also 2nd allowing just 3.8 yards per rush. In their first meeting this season, the Seahawks held the Rams to 21 points, 249 total yards and 5.0 yards per play. Nobody has held the Rams down like they did this season, and that was in perfect weather in Los Angeles.

The Rams rank 3rd in scoring defense at 18.6 points per game. That's why many feel they are the best team in the NFL this season because they have no weaknesses. But there is a chink in their armor now with WR Devante Adams out for this game with a hamstring injury. He has 60 receptions for 789 yards and a league-high 14 TD this season. The Rams are much easier to defend without having to worry about Adams. Puka Nacua also had to leave the game last week with an injury late but came back in, and he may still be feeling the affects especially on this short week.

It's late in the season and Sam Darnold is regressing again. The Seahawks managed just 18 points last week against the Colts in similar conditions. They kicked six field goals and didn't reach the end zone. In their previous home game, they beat the Vikings 26-0 but that was all defense. They managed just 219 total yards against the Vikings that week.

Darnold threw 4 interceptions and led the Seahawks to just 19 points in that first meeting with the Rams. It saw just 40 combined points, again in perfect weather in Los Angeles. Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games, and I love backing UNDERS in the 2nd meeting in these division games because of it. The conditions will be much worse for the rematch, and both defenses are well ahead of both offenses right now. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.