15* Cal/Hawaii Xmas Eve Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

The biggest reason I'm on the OVER in this game is due to Cal's change of philosophy since interim head coach Nick Rolovich took over. The former Hawaii head coach is the offensive coordinator of the Golden Bears. He has been going more up-tempo and pass-happy since taking over.

We really saw that play out in the regular season finale with the Golden Bears pulling the 38-35 upset of SMU for 73 combined points. The Golden Bears ran 77 plays and put up 450 total yards on a solid SMU defense. The threw 40 times against SMU and 50 times against Stanford the game prior.

I also like the OVER because neither team can run the football, so this game will be played through the air. Cal averages 79.8 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, while Hawaii averages 104.9 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. Both coaches know they are almost wasting downs trying to run the football at this point.

The good news is both offenses can rely on reliable QB's to move the ball through the air. Jaron-Kaewe Sagapolutele is completing 63.5% of his passes for 3,109 yards with a 17-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season for Cal. The native of Hawaii will be looking to show out in front of all his fans back at home. He's actually good friends with Hawaii QB Micah Alejado, who is completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,832 yards with a 21-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired. Both are allowing more yards per play than their opponents average on offense. Leading tackler LB Cade Uluave (88 tackles, 3 sacks) and top CB Hezekiah Masses (43 tackles, 12 PD, 5 INT) are both opt-out candidates for the Golden Bears. Hawaii has two key injuries on defense in LB Jamih Otis (59 tackles) and CB Virdel Edwards (26 tackles, 5 PD).

I expect both offenses to be ahead of both defenses in this fast-paced shootout on Christmas Eve where both QB's put on a show for their home fans. Cal and its opponents have combined for at least 52 points in six of its last eight games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Cal/Hawaii Xmas Eve No-Brainer on Hawaii ML -110

For starters, Hawaii is 13-0 ATS in its last 13 home games. The Rainbow Warriors have one of the best home-field advantages in the country. They will have no problem getting up for this standalone game on Christmas Eve to beat a Power 4 opponent in Cal.

These teams have two common opponents in Stanford and San Diego State. Hawaii beat Stanford 23-20 and San Diego State 38-6, while Cal lost to San Diego State 34-0 and lost to Stanford 31-10. Those results against common opponents show that the Rainbow Warriors are clearly the better team.

Hawaii has blowout home wins over Utah State by 18, San Diego State by 32 and Wyoming by 20 in its last three home games. The Rainbow Warriors are outscoring opponents by 15.4 points per game and outgaining them by 103 yards per game at home this season.

While Hawaii has pretty much all hands on deck with the exception of WR Jackson Davis to the transfer portal, Cal is in limbo with head coach Justin Wilcox fired and Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi will take over next season.

Leading tackler LB Cade Uluave (88 tackles, 3 sacks) and top CB Hezekiah Masses (43 tackles, 12 PD, 5 INT) are both opt-out candidates for the Golden Bears. TE Mason Mini (35 receptions, 387 yards, 4 TD) and WR Jordan King (22 receptions, 267 yards, 2 TD) are injured. The Golden Bears cannot run the ball averaging just 79.8 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry this season. That puts a lot of pressure on QB Sagapolutele to make plays.

I'll gladly back the team in the better mindset knowing head coach Timmy Chang and QB Micah Alejado will return next season to lead this squad. Alejado was one of the best freshman QB's in the country this season, completing 65.9% of his passes for 2,832 yards with a 21-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season. He should have his way with this Cal defense. Bet Hawaii on the money line Wednesday.

15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -9

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder on Christmas Day. They are 26-4 this season with two of those losses coming to the San Antonio Spurs within the last two weeks. They lost 111-109 in the NBA Cup semifinal and 130-110 in the rematch in San Antonio on December 23rd just two days ago. It's safe to say the Thunder will be max motivated for revenge.

I like the Thunder's chances in their first home meeting with the Spurs this season. The Thunder are 14-0 SU & 9-5 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by a whopping 19.3 points per game. Their last four home games have been particularly dominant beating the Grizzlies by 16, the Clippers by 21, the Suns by 49 and the Mavericks by 21.

While the Thunder will be max motivated, I think this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Spurs. They just beat the Thunder twice so what more do they have to prove? I think they relax here and get rocked. In that 130-110 win two days ago, the Spurs shot 57% from the field and 44% from 3-point range while attempting 17 more FT than OKC. None of that is going to even come close to happening again here two days later.

The last three meetings in OKC have not been close with the Thunder winning by 12, 38 and 36 points over the Spurs. The Thunder have the best home-court advantage in the NBA and it will be a raucous crowd for them on Christmas Day. OKC is also as healthy as it has been in a long time and primed for a big effort as a result. Bet the Thunder Thursday.

20* Lions/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on OVER 43

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team with one of the best offenses in the NFL but also one the worst, most banged up defenses in the NFL. The OVER is 5-0 in Lions last five games overall with 53 or more combined points in all five. They have combined for 51 or more points in seven of their last eight games overall. This total of 43 is very low for a game involving Detroit right now.

The Lions rank 2nd in scoring offense at 30.1 points per game, 3rd in total offense at 378.7 yards per game and 2nd at 6.3 yards per play. Detroit ranks 23rd in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 23rd in total defense at 347.4 yards per game and 24th at 5.8 yards per play.

The Lions just allowed 481 total yards to Aaron Rodgers and a suspect Pittsburgh offense last week. While the Lions are very healthy on offense, their defense is decimated by injuries especially in the secondary. They are without starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, one of their backup safeties in Avonte Madox, and starting CB Terrion Arnold. They have 10 defenders on IR or out and another four questionable, including three starters.

I think this total has been set too low due to Minnesota going to 3rd-string QB Max Brosmer today. I think Brosmer hasn't been given a fair shake since his only start came on the road in tough conditions against one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks. Brosmer went 7-of-9 passing taking over to an injured JJ McCarthy last week on the road against the New York Giants to preserve a 16-13 win.

Brosmer is going to look like a completely different QB today at home in perfect conditions in the dome against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, particularly one of the worst secondaries. I think he is going to ball out today and have a much better game than most anticipate. He will also be forced to keep up in a shootout because the Lions will get their points even against this solid Minnesota D. It's a Minnesota D that just allowed 423 total yards to the Cowboys in their last indoor game two weeks ago.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Vikings and Lions. These teams have actually combined for 50 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings. This total of 43 is too short today. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Thunder UNDER 233.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games. This will be the 3rd meeting between the Spurs and Thunder since the NBA Cup semifinals on December 13th. These teams know each inside and out, and points will be very hard to come by tonight.

The Spurs upset the Thunder 111-109 for 220 combined points in that NBA Cup semifinal on December 13th. The Spurs backed it up with a 130-110 home win over the Thunder for 240 combined points on December 23rd just two days ago. Both teams shot lights out with the Thunder shooting 54% overall and 40% from 3-point range, while the Spurs shot 57% overall and 44% from 3-point range. They aren't going to shoot that well again.

The Spurs and Thunder have combined for 220 or fewer points in four of their last six meetings. The Thunder have been dominant defensively at home allowing just 103.9 points per game. I fully expect them to shut down the Spurs in this rematch and to lead the way in us cashing this UNDER ticket. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Rockets/Lakers ABC No-Brainer on OVER 230.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are a perfect 11-0 OVER in their 11 home games this season. Los Angeles home games are averaging 244.1 combined points per game. It looks as though the Lakers will get Luka Doncic back as he has been upgraded to questionable, while Austin Reaves and LeBron are both healthy. It hasn't mattered who has been in the lineup the Lakers have been a dead nuts OVER team all season, especially at home.

Houston is the 2nd-best road OVER team in the NBA. The Rockets are 12-5 OVER in all road games averaging 235.3 combined points per game. The OVER is 6-1 in Rockets last seven games overall with 231 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 234, 254 and 249 combined points in the three OVERS. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Denver -12.5

The Broncos got humbled with a home loss to the Jaguars last week. They outgained the Jaguars 445 to 346, or by 99 yards, so it was a misleading 34-20 defeat. They must win out to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC now so they have no margin for error. They certainly won't be taking the division rival Chiefs lightly as a result.

The Chiefs look like they are blatantly tanking right now with all of the starters they are resting due to injury. It's not even just Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew being out, it's a lot more than that. The Chiefs will now have to start 3rd-string QB Chris Oladokun.

It looks as if the Chiefs will now be without WR Rashee Rice and WR Tyquan Thornton. They are also without three of their top four offensive tackles on the O-Line. Minshew had now chance to be successful last week, and Oladokun has no chance to be successful this week with the offense will be fielding.

The Chiefs lost 26-9 at the Titans last week and it was every bit the blowout that the final score showed. The Titans outgained the Chiefs 376 to 133, or by 243 total yards. The Broncos will post a similar beat down of the of the Chiefs not only in the stats, but on the scoreboard as well. Oladokun is also at a big disadvantage having to prepare to start on a short week with this game being played on Thursday.

The Chiefs are also likely to be without several starters on defense in DT Nadi, CB McDuffie, CB Watson and LB Chenal who were all out last week. The Broncos have been humming on offense putting up 34 points and 391 yards on the Packers and 445 yards on the Jaguars the last two weeks. I expect the Broncos to dice up this short-handed Chiefs defense.

The Broncos are very healthy overall including on defense. This will be a nightmare for Oladokun going up against a Denver defense that ranks 5th in scoring at 19.7 points per game, 4th in total defense at 291.6 yards per game, 2nd in yards per play at 4.9 and 1st in sacks at 4.2 per game. The books can't set this number high enough as Denver should win this game by 2-plus touchdowns with ease.

It will be similar to the Week 18 game last year where the Chiefs rested their starters and the Broncos won 38-0. The Chiefs have incentive to tank to try and build around Mahomes for next year with the best draft pick possible. With all the guys they are sitting out, it appears at least from a coaching and front office standpoint, they are trying to lose these final games. The Chiefs will also have no home-field advantage here as almost all their tickets up up for sale and there will likely be more Broncos fans in attendance. Denver needs this win like blood and will treat it like it. Bet the Broncos Thursday.