15* CBB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cincinnati/Clemson UNDER 141.5

Cincinnati is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Bearcats rank 229th in adjusted offense and 10th in adjusted defense. The Bearcats are 8-3 UNDER in all games this season. They are scoring just 75.5 points per game and allowing 65.5 points per game.

Clemson is also a dead nuts UNDER team. The Tigers rank 330th in adjusted tempo and play at a snail's pace. They are also 33rd in adjusted defense allowing just 65.9 points per game.

This game will be played on a neutral in Gainesville with unfamiliar shooting backgrounds. Points will be hard to come by for both teams today. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Bucks +12

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a massive letdown spot. They are coming off a 112-107 upset home win as 7-point dogs over the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. They handed the Thunder just their 3rd loss of the season, and I fully expect the Timberwolves to be flat as a pancake Sunday.

The Milwaukee Bucks continue to play competitive basketball without Giannis. They upset the Celtics by 15 as 9.5-point dogs recently. They have also owned the Timberwolves going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. They will be giving their best effort tonight, and it will be good enough to stay within this inflated 12-point spread. Bet the Bucks Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Detroit Lions -7

The Detroit Lions are 15-0 SU & 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss. They are coming off a 41-34 loss in Los Angeles against what most believe is the best team in the NFL in the Rams. The Lions are in must-win mode the rest of the way if they want to make the playoffs, and they will be putting their best foot forward this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

With Pittsburgh's win over Miami on Monday Night Football, the Steelers now have the assurance that they can afford to lose their next two games as long as they beat the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18 and still win the division. Knowing they have that in the back of their minds, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Steelers fail to show up this week.

It's a short week for the Steelers as well after playing a very physical game with the Dolphins in the cold Monday night. Injuries are starting to pile up for Pittsburgh as they will be without LB T.J. Watt, LB Nick Herbig and CB James Pierre on defense. Their offensive line is a mess as they are already down LT Broderick Jones and swing tackle Calvin Anderson, who are both on IR. They are down to a 4th-stringer at tackle, LG Isaac Seumalo is out with a triceps injury, and C Zach Frazier was held out of practice Thursday before getting a limited in Friday with a triceps injury as well.

The Lions are 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS at home this season outscoring opponents by 11.6 points per game. They were last seen beating Dallas 44-30 as 3.5-point home favorites. Their offense is basically fully healthy right now and one of the best offenses in the NFL. They rank 1st in scoring offense at 30.6 points per game, 4th in total offense at 379.9 yards per game and 1st at 6.4 yards per play. They have been playing even better on this side of the ball since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties.

I just don't think the Steelers are equipped to keep up in a shootout. They rank 27th in total offense at 288.1 yards per game. They have a very predictable offense that is all dink and dunk to tight ends and running backs, with the occasional big play to their only proven receiver in DK Metcalf sprinkled in.

The Lions have some injuries in their secondary, but the Steelers aren't the team that can exploit it. And when you look at the numbers, the Lions have actually been the better defensive team this season. Pittsburgh is 28th in total defense at 363.3 yards per game while Detroit is 21st at 337.9 yards per game. The Steelers are one of the most fraudulent teams in the NFL, and they will get exposed by a much superior Lions team that simply wants it more this weekend. Bet the Lions Sunday.

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15* Chargers/Cowboys Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 49.5

The Dallas Cowboys are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 9-2 OVER in their last 11 games overall behind one of the best offenses in the NFL, but one of the worst defenses. They have gone for 49 or more combined points in nine of their last 11 games, including 57 or more combined points in eight of those contests. Dallas home games are averaging 61.6 combined points per game this season.

The Cowboys rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.1 points per game and 1st in total offense at 396.9 yards per game. The Cowboys are fully healthy on offense with the exception of LT Tyler Guyton. Dallas ranks 31st in scoring defense at 30.0 points per game and 29th in total defense at 374.9 yards per game. They are without CB Bland, and both CB Carson and DT Quinnen Williams are questionable. Williams had to leave the game last week when they allowed 34 points to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings.

This total has been set too low due to the Chargers playing a string of bad offenses but good defenses in the Raiders, Eagles and Chiefs in their last three games. They are bound to get in a shootout with the Cowboys as Justin Herbert lights up their defense. He has all of his top weapons healthy for this one and their offensive line will hold up against a Dallas defense that lacks a consistent pass rush.

The Chargers haven't played many elite offenses like the Cowboys this season, so their defensive numbers are a little skewed. Against some of the better offenses they faced they allowed 38 points to the Colts and 35 to the Jaguars. If one team gets into the 30's in this game it's going OVER, and it's very likely one team gets into the 30's if not both. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bucs/Panthers NFC South No-Brainer on OVER 45

The Bucs are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state. Their offense is as healthy as it has been all season with Evans, McMillan, Egbuka, Godwin, Otton and Irving all playing in this game. They just hung 28 points on the Falcons last week with most of these guys available, but now they will have everyone available this week.

The problem for the Bucs has been defense, where they have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game during their 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS stretch in their last six games. They allowed 44 points to the Bills, 34 to the Rams, and most shockingly 29 points and 476 total yards to the Falcons and Kirk Cousins last week in their 29-28 defeat. They do get some guys back from injury this week, but this is a bad, banged up defense.

The Panthers have some injuries of their own on defense that the Bucs can take advantage of. They will be without DE Tershawn Wharton (36 tackles, 2 sacks) and LB Trevin Wallace (60 tacklers, 2 sacks) this week. This is a below-average Panthers defense as it is and missing two key starters along the front seven won't help matters.

I think Bryce Young and the Panthers will be forced to keep up in a shootout. They are fully healthy on offense right now with the exception of one offensive lineman. Young has some great weapons in Dowdle and Hubbard at RB, plus McMillan, Legette and Coker at WR. He has proven he can keep up with teams in shootouts just like he did in his last home game, a 31-28 win over the Rams for 59 combined points. This game will play out similarly.

The Bucs and Panthers combined for 62 and 49 points in their two meetings last season. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation. Both offenses will have their way with these suspect defenses. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Broncos OVER 46.5

Two thriving offenses square off in perfect scoring conditions for a shootout in Denver Sunday afternoon. Temps will be in the 60's with 5 MPH winds and no chance of precipitation. I expect both offenses to continue thriving in this all-important game that could determine the top seed in the AFC.

Trevor Lawrence is playing at another level since getting a reliable #1 receiver in Jakobi Myers. The Jaguars have now scored at least 25 points in seven consecutive games. They just hung 48 on the Jets last week behind 6 total TD from Lawrence, which followed up 36 points against the Colts the previous week. He and Liam Coen are in sync and hitting on all cylinders right now.

Bo Nix has shown he can take his game to the next level when he needs to. He has one of the best games of his career last week in a 34-26 win over the Packers. Nix threw for 302 yards and 4 TD against one of the best defenses in the NFL. He will certainly thrive against this overrated Jacksonville defense that has played a bunch of weak offenses in recent weeks.

In fact, I think both defenses are overrated due to a weak schedule of opposing offenses. And we've seen some real shootouts in Denver with 65 combined points with the Giants, 68 with the Cowboys and 60 with the Packers in recent weeks. The Jaguars have certainly tranded OVER on the road combining for 59 points with the Raiders, 65 with the Texans and 51 with the Cardinals in recent weeks. This total of 46.5 is too short giving how well both offenses are playing. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Saints -4.5

The New Orleans Saints believe they have their QB of the future in Tyler Shough. He is rapidly climbing up the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds with his great play here down the stretch. And now Shough is primed for his best game yet against what is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in the New York Jets.

The Jets know they don't have their QB of the future on their roster and have incentive to tank. And with some moves they've made to sit numerous starters out, they are clearly trying to lose games right now. It has shown by their play on the field in recent weeks, and this is more of a fade of the Jets than anything.

The Jets' 34-10 home loss to Miami two weeks ago looks really bad now when you consider Miami came back the next week and was blown out by Pittsburgh. Last week, the Jets made Trevor Lawrence look like the best QB in the NFL as he accounted for 6 total touchdowns in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars.

Giving up 34 points to that weak Miami offense and then 48 to Jacksonville shows just how poorly this defense is playing. They have gotten much worse since trading away their two best defenders in Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, and it's really starting to show now that they are injured. The Jets have eight defenders on IR including three starters in FS Adams, CB Brownlee and CB Thomas. They have one of the worst CB rooms in the NFL. They are also without starting LB Mauigoa and backup DE Watts this week.

I haven't even gotten to the offense, which is starting rookie Brady Cook. If that's not a sign they are tanking I don't know what is because both Fields and Taylor are healthy enough to start. Cook has been a disaster, completing 57.1% of his passes, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt with a 1-to-5 TD/INT ratio. He doesn't have much help with WR Garrett Wilson out for the year and TE Mason Taylor out again this week. This current version of the Jets might be the worst team in the NFL if it's not the Raiders.

The Saints have gone 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall. They only lost by 4 at Miami as 5-point dogs, upset the Bucs 24-20 as 7.5-point road dogs and upset the Panthers 20-17 as 2.5-point home dogs. The Panthers were coming off a bye week, too.

While I like Shough and his dual-threat ability, it's this Saints defense that is grossly underrated. The Saints have allowed just 17.8 points per game in their last five games. They are fully healthy on defense right now too. I expect the defense to shut down Cook, and Shough to make enough plays with his arm and his legs to lead New Orleans to a win by a TD or more. Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs were not only eliminated from the playoffs last year, but they also lost their MVP QB in Patrick Mahomes to a season-ending injury. They have since lost several other players to injury to will sit out this week, a clear sign the Chiefs don't mind tanking the rest of the way to get the best draft pick possible.

Offensively, the Chiefs will be without Mahomes, WR Rice, WR THornton, LT Simmons, RT Moore, and backup LT Morris. Gardner Minshew has almost no shot behind this offensive line and lack of weapons this week. Defensively, the Chiefs will be without DT Nnadi, CB McDuffie and LB Chenal who all suffered injuries last week. What a mess.

The Titans have no incentive to lose because they have their QB of the future in Cam Ward and they are doing everything possible to get him going in the 2H of the season. He is really playing well scoring 24 points on the Seahawks, 31 on the Browns and 24 on the 49ers in three of his last four games. The Titans are very healthy on offense, too.

The Titans have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL led by DE Jeffery Simmons and NT T'Vondre Sweat. They will have their way with this makeshift KC offensive line, which will help alleviate some of the pressure on their secondary, which is their most banged up unit. No matter how you slice it, the Titans are better than the Chiefs in their current state, and they should not be catching points at home as a result. Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Vikings -2.5

JJ McCarthy returned to the lineup two weeks ago and has put together two of the best games of his career. Not surprisingly, it has come against two NFC East defenses, and he gets another one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week.

McCarthy and the Vikings want to build something here at the end of the season that can carry over into next season and they are motivated to finish strong. McCarthy threw 3 TD's in a 31-0 win over Washington, and he came back last week with 3 total TD in a 34-26 road win at Dallas. He is gaining confidence, and the Giants won't be able to stop it.

The Giants have incentive to lose to get a better draft pick and they are playing like it. The Giants are 0-8 in their last eight games overall with an 18-point loss in New England and an 8-point home loss to Washington in their last two games since Jaxson Dart returned from injury. The problem isn't Dart and the offense, though, it's this pitiful defense.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak. They have eight defenders on IR or out, plus another three defenders listed as questionable coming into this one. They cannot stop the run allowing 119 or more rushing yards in every game during their 8-game losing streak. And they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL to boot.

The best unit on the field should be this Minnesota defense, and I would give Minnesota's offense the advantage as well considering all the weapons McCarthy has to work with. The Vikings should have no problem winning this game by a FG or more to get the cover. Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Vikings/Giants OVER 44

The Giants are a dead nuts OVER team. They have gone 8-1 OVER in their last nine games overall finishing with 44 or more combined points in all nine games, and 47 or more in eight of them. This total of 44 is too short for a game involving the Giants.

The Giants have allowed an average of 31.5 points per game during their eight-game losing streak. They have eight defenders on IR or out, plus another three defenders listed as questionable coming into this one. They cannot stop the run allowing 119 or more rushing yards in every game during their 8-game losing streak. And they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL to boot.

But Jaxson Dart and Jameis Winston have kept the offense afloat scoring 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games. They put up 382 total yards in a 29-21 loss to the Commanders last week. They are pretty much fully healthy on offense with the exception of the guys they lost early in the season.

JJ McCarthy returned to the lineup two weeks ago and has put together two of the best games of his career. Not surprisingly, it has come against two NFC East defenses, and he gets another one of the worst defenses in the NFL this week.

McCarthy and the Vikings want to build something here at the end of the season that can carry over into next season and they are motivated to finish strong. McCarthy threw 3 TD's and led the Vikings to 31 points against Washington in his return two weeks ago, and he came back last week with 3 total TD in a 34-26 road win at Dallas. He is gaining confidence, and the Giants won't be able to stop it.

Minnesota hasn't exactly been a lockdown defense. The Vikings have allowed 23 or more points in seven of their last nine games. They just allowed 423 total yards to the Cowboys last week. And now injuries are a major concern as they will be without both LB Jonathan Greenard (38 tackles, 3 sacks) and DE Javon Hargrave (45 tackles, 3 sacks) this week after both got hurt against Dallas. Both offenses will be ahead of both defenses in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Falcons ML -125

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a 29-28 road win at Tampa Bay in which they racked up 476 total yards on the Bucs and outgained them by 138 yards. That was a Thursday game, so this is a mini-bye week for the Falcons and they should come out of it fresh and ready to go. They also come out of it healthier getting Drake London back in the lineup at WR to give Kirk Cousins a weapon he hasn't had in his time at QB.

The Falcons are poised to hang a big number on Arizona. The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now. They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last six games. They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters. They have another two questionable.

It's no wonder the Cardinals are 0-6 SU in their last six games and 1-11 SU in their last 12 games. They have incentive to keep losing to improve on their draft pick, too, so they aren't rushing anyone back from injury. They are also down multiple starters on the offensive line including LT Paris Johnson and LG Evan Brown this week. Jacoby Brissett has his work cut out for him behind this makeshift offensive line.

The Falcons have the much better defense in this matchup. They are at least an average unit on that side of the ball that gets pressure at one of the top rates in the NFL. They rank 15th in total defense at 323.6 yards per game and 2nd in sacks at 3.4 per game. There is almost zero home-field advantage for the Cardinals at this point in the season with nothing to play for. Bet the Falcons on the Money Line Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Falcons/Cardinals OVER 45.5

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 8-2 OVER in their last 10 games overall. They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games, five of which have seen 51 or more combined points, with four of those going for 60 or more combined points.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now. They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last six games. They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters. They have another two questionable.

This Arizona offense is forced to play fast to try and keep up in shootouts, and Jacoby Brissett has been doing a good job of it getting the ball to two of the most underrated weapons in the NFL in TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson. The Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last nine games. Now WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Xavier Weaver are expected to return this week to give him even more weapons.

The Falcons are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 46 or more combined points in six of those seven games. The lone exception was when the Saints got 3 points on two trips to the 1-yard line and missed two more FG's. Kirk Cousins is proving he still has what it takes, leading the 29-28 comeback in Tampa Bay last week with 476 total yards including 365 passing.

What was amazing was Cousins has been playing without Drake London, who is expected to return this week to make this Atlanta offense that much more potent. Cousins, Bijan Robinson, London and Pitts should combine to have a monster game against this Arizona defense this week.

It's not like Atlanta is shutting down teams, either, so the Cardinals will get their points. The Falcons have allowed at least 24 points in seven of their last eight games, including 27 or more six times during this stretch. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 47. or more combined points in five of those six. This figures to be a shootout in perfect conditions in Arizona this weekend. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Denver/Tulsa OVER 163.5

Denver is a perfect 11-0 OVER in all games this season as the best OVER team in the country. The Pioneers and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in each of their last eight lined games.

What makes Denver such an OVER team is that they have a great offense ranking 107th in adjusted offense and one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 364th in adjusted defense. They are the second-worst defensive team in the country in adjusted defense.

Tulsa is 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall. The Golden Hurricane and their opponents have combined for at least 163 points in four of their last five games. Tulsa is an elite offensive team ranking 40th in adjusted offense and a mediocre defensive team at 148th in adjusted defense. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.