Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Pistons/Knicks OVER 220.5

With both big men in Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart suspended for the Detroit Pistons tonight it should lead to them playing a much smaller lineup for four quarters. That switch to more small ball should lead to more points tonight for both teams, and this total of 220.5 has been set too low.

The Knicks are fully healthy for this one with the exception of Miles McBride. The Knicks rank 3rd in offensive rating this season and are scoring 118.1 points per game including 120 per game at home. They should hang a big number on a Pistons team missing two of their best defenders.

The Pistons have plenty of firepower themselves scoring 117.2 points per game while ranking 10th in offensive rating. They have everyone else healthy and the addition of Kevin Heurter gives them some much-needed shooting off the bench. Paul Reed had 22 points in the absence of Duren and Stewart last time out, too. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

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20* Big West TOTAL OF THE WEEK on CS-Northridge/UCSB OVER 155.5

CS-Northridge is a dead nuts OVER team thanks to ranking 4th in adjusted tempo and 13th in average length of offensive possession. The Matadors are 15-9 OVER in all games this season and 8-3 OVER in road games. This total of 155.5 is very short for a game involving CS-Northridge tonight.

UCSB ranks 70th in adjusted offense and 258th in adjusted defense. Better yet for the OVER, the Gauchos rank 28th in effective FG percentage offense and 312th in effective FG percentage defense. So despite playing at a much slower pace, the Guachos are an OVER team due to being so efficient on offense and so terrible on defense.

UCSB is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall going for 160 combined points with UC-Davis, 163 with UC-Irvine and 168 with Cal Poly. I know the first meeting went well under the total in a 74-65 win by CS-Northridge and 139 combined points. But UCSB shot 6-of-30 (20%) from 3-point range while Northridge shot 3-of-18 (16.7%) from 3-point range. I fully expect some major positive shooting regression for both teams in the rematch tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Celtics -5.5

The Boston Celtics are 35-19 SU & 30-24 ATS this season. They are 17-10 SU and 17-10 ATS in road games. The Celtics are in 2nd place in the East trailing the Pistons by 5.5 games and only 0.5 games ahead of the Knicks. They come out of the All-Star Break motivated to catch the Pistons and also to fend off the Knicks.

While the Celtics are fully healthy for this one, the Warriors will be without Steph Curry (27.2 PPG) and obviously Jimmy Butler (20.0 PPG). This is one of the worst teams in the NBA in their current state, and asking them to be competitive against this juggernaut of a Celtics team is asking too much.

The Warriors are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The lineup they are currently putting out there has no business catching only 5.5 points to the Celtics tonight. Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Spurs OVER 229

The Phoenix Suns will be without their best defender in Dillon Brooks tonight. But they have Devin Booker back healthy and he found his stroke nearly winning the 3-point competition over All-Star Break. Grayson Allen should be back as well.

The Suns will have plenty of firepower tonight to get in a shootout with the Spurs, who have been playing in a ton of them lately. While the Suns are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games, the Spurs are 5-0 OVER in their last five games with 239 or more combined points in four consecutive games coming into this one. This total of 229 is very short for a game involving the Spurs right now. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Night Line Mistake on Raptors/Bulls OVER 231.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 5th in pace and 25th in defensive rating. The Bulls are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall coming into this one. This despite playing without Josh Giddey (18.8 PPG, 8.8 APG) and Tre Jones (12.4 PPG, 5.8 APG) during this stretch. Both are expected back coming out of the All-Star Break to really make the Bulls even more of an OVER team.

The Raptors are fully healthy coming out of the All-Star Break and are a potent offensive team when that's the case with Ingram, Barnes, Barrett and Quickley leading the way. They should hang a big number on the Bulls tonight.

This will be a rematch from a 123-107 win by the Raptors on February 5th going into the break. That game saw just 42 combined points in the 4th quarter, which is unlikely to happen again. Especially with the Bulls having more firepower in the rematch with Jones and Giddey. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 228 or more combined points in all five. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Knicks -3.5

Both Detroit big men in Jalen Duren (17.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG) and Isaiah Stewart (10.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.7 BPG) have suspended this game tonight. The Pistons are 'fat and happy' coming out of the All-Star Break with a 5.5-game lead on the Celtics and a 6-game lead on the Knicks for 1st place in the East.

The Knicks are fully healthy for this one with the exception of Miles McBride. The Knicks rank 3rd in offensive rating this season and are scoring 118.1 points per game including 120 per game at home. They should hang a big number on a Pistons team missing two of their best defenders.

The Knicks are not only motivated to catch the Pistons in the East, they are also motivated due to playing with double-revenge after losing their first two meetings in Detroit this season. Now the Knicks get them at home, and they have been a totally different team at Madison Square Garden.

Indeed, the Knicks are 21-7 SU & 19-9 ATS at home this season while outscoring opponents by 9.9 points per game on average. They should be more than 3.5-point home favorites over the Pistons tonight. Bet the Knicks Thursday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference Total DOMINATOR on Nets/Cavs OVER 229.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team right now with an elite offense. They have gone 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall while scoring 119 or more points in eight of their last 10 games. A big reason for their success is trading for James Harden at PG, plus sharpshooter Sam Merrill back healthy.

The Brooklyn Nets are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall including 236 or more combined points in three of those five games. They are pretty healthy coming out of the break with leading scorer Michael Porter Jr. back in the lineup.

Cleveland beat Brooklyn 131-124 for 255 combined points in their lone meeting this season. This game should sail OVER this 229.5-point total in the rematch. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* WAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah Valley -7.5

I love the spot for Utah Valley tonight. They are ineligible for the postseason, so their main goal is winning the WAC. They trail Cal Baptist and Utah Tech both by 0.5 games heading into tonight.

This is the Wolverines' shot at revenge from a 78-71 (OT) road loss at Cal Baptist in their first meeting this season. It's amazing they even forced OT after shooting 2-of-20 (10%) from 3-point range while the Lancers shot 6-of-14 (42.7%) from 3. It's safe to say they are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

Utah Valley has a massive home-court advantage going 12-0 SU at home this season while outscoring opponents by 23.9 points per game. The Wolverines also have a big rest advantage after having an entire week off coming into this game last playing last Thursday.

Cal Baptist just had its 9-game winning streak come to an end with a road loss at Utah Tech on Saturday. Teams that have long winning streaks snapped tend to be flat in that next game. Bet Utah Valley Thursday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Appalachian State -3

I love the spot for Appalachian State tonight. The Mountaineers are tied with Troy for first place in the Sun Belt with the regular season title at stake here down the stretch. They also want revenge on Marshall after losing 88-81 on the road in their first meeting this season.

Marshall shot an unsustainable 12-of-24 (50%) from 3-point range at home in that first meeting. App State shot 8-of-23 (34.8%) from 3 and 17-of-31 (54.8%) from the FT line in that game. It's safe to say the Mountaineers are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

App State is 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in its last eight games overall. The Mountaineers are 10-3 SU at home this season. Marshall is 5-7 SU & 5-7 ATS in true road games. The Mountaineers have the rest advantage after having the last four days off, while the Thundering Herd have only had the last two days off and will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days. Bet Appalachian State Thursday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida International +11.5

Liberty is overvalued due to its 22-3 record that includes a 16-game winning streak currently. But the Flames have been ridiculously lucky in close games going 12-1 in games decided by 9 points or less. Only 3 of their last 15 wins have come by more than 11 points, so asking them to win this game by 12-plus points to beat us is asking too much.

That's especially the case with Florida International already proving they could play with Liberty at home. In fact, they are the only team to force OT against Liberty during this 16-game winning streak. They lost 97-94 (OT) at home, and they would love to get some revenge from that narrow defeat. At the very least they will stay within this inflated number. Bet Florida International Thursday.