15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tennessee-Martin -8

UT-Martin has been impressive thus far. They opened with a 86-81 upset win at UNLV as 17.5-point dogs, came back with a 97-42 win over Kentucky Christian, and backed it up with a 78-67 road win at Bradley as 15.5-point dogs. They gave Florida State all they wanted in a 87-73 road loss as 20-point dogs last time out.

Now the Skyhawks take a big step down in class here against a Prairie View A&M team they should blow out. They are picked to finish near the bottom of the SWAC alongside two of the worst teams in the country in Arkansas Pine Bluff and Mississippi Valley State.

It's easy to see why as the Panthers lost all five starters from last season after Braelon Bush (13.4 PPG) decided to transfer to Chicago State late in the process. This is a team that went 5-27 last year and is well on its way to another disastrous season.

Prairie View A&M lost 105-62 as 20-point dogs at Wichita State, by 27 at Oklahoma State and by 18 at Missouri. It won't get much easier against this underrated Tennessee-Martin squad today, and another double-digit loss is in store for the Panthers. Bet UT-Martin Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Weber State -3

Weber State has been impressive against a brutal schedule this season. After opening with a 130-38 win over West Coast Baptist, the Wildcats played three straight brutal road games and nearly pulled off the upset in all three.

It started with a 92-89 (OT) road loss as 15.5-point dogs at Utah. The Wildcats followed that up with a 83-73 road loss at Utah State as 22-point dogs. Then they only lost 79-70 at UC-Irvine as 11-point dogs.

The Wildcats were happy to be back home for a 91-85 win over Campbell as 1-point favorites in which they led by 22 with 10 minutes to go. Now they have had the last two days off and will relish this opportunity to get another home win over UT-Arlington.

This is a bad UT-Arlington team picked to finish near the bottom of the WAC. The Mavericks went 13-18 last season and returned just one starter from that team in Raysean Seamster, the only current player averaging in double figures scoring for them.

UT-Arlington is coming off a 71-67 loss to Campbell yesterday to give them a common opponent with Weber State. The Mavericks will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 5 days, while the Wildcats have had the last two days off. This rest advantage is just an added bonus as the Wildcats are the much superior team anyway. Bet Weber State Saturday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Clippers/Hornets OVER 226.5

Charlotte Hornets is a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 9.6 APG) is in the lineup. The offense runs much faster and smoother with him at PG. The Hornets are basically fully healthy now with Brandon Miller (14.5 PPG) making his return after sitting out the last 13 games after starting the first two games of the season. He's the reason many were excited about the Hornets this season.

The Clippers have been a much worse defensive team without Kawhi Leonard and Derrick Jones Jr. That means more minutes for guys like John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic who are all offense and no defense.

The Clippers are 4-1 OVER in their last five games finishing with 230 combined points with the Magic, 239 with the Celtics, 228 at the end of regulation with the Mavericks and 246 with the Nuggets.

The OVER is 6-3 in the nine games in which Ball has played this season finishing with 227 or more combined points in eight of those nine games. This total of 226.5 is very short for a game involving the Hornets with Ball in the lineup. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets ML +107

Charlotte Hornets are a much better team with La'Melo Ball (21.6 PPG, 9.6 APG) is in the lineup. The offense runs much faster and smoother with him at PG. The Hornets are basically fully healthy now with Brandon Miller (14.5 PPG) making his return after sitting out the last 13 games after starting the first two games of the season. He's the reason many were excited about the Hornets this season.

The Clippers have been a much worse defensive team without Kawhi Leonard (24.3 PPG) and Derrick Jones Jr. (10.5 PPG). They are also without Bradley Beal for the season now, and the Norman Powell trade couldn't look any worse than it does right now.

The Clippers are 4-11 SU & 4-11 ATS and there's no end in sight. They are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games with their lone win coming in OT against the Mavericks. They have no business being favored on the road here against a much healthier, better Hornets team in their current form.

This is also a 10:00 AM body clock game for the Clippers starting at 1:00 EST, something they are not used to and I think it will take them some time to wake up. Bet the Hornets on the Money Line Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Arkansas +9

Arkansas keeps showing up week after week for interim head coach Bobby Petrino despite tough loss after tough loss. In fact, this is the best 2-8 team I've ever seen. Seven of the eight losses came by single-digits with the lone exception being a loss to Notre Dame. They lost by 1 to LSU, by 3 to Mississippi State, by 9 to Auburn, by 3 to Texas A&M, by 3 to Tennessee, by 1 to Memphis and by 6 to Ole Miss. They easily could have won any of those seven games, so they are grossly undervalued right now due to their record.

I also think it's a terrible spot for Texas. The Longhorns had their 'all in' game last week against Georgia and came up short, getting outplayed and out-coached in a 35-10 defeat. It was their third loss to Georgia in two seasons and all but assured they will not be going to the 12-team playoff for a third consecutive season. I question their motivation this week after having their dreams crushed last week. It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

No question Arkansas has the better offense in this matchup. The Razorbacks rank 13th in total offense at 470 yards per game while scoring 34.1 points per game. Talen Green is one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country, throwing for 2,537 yards and 19 TD while rushing for 719 yards and 7 TD.

The Razorbacks returned from their bye and gave LSU all they wanted in Baton Rouge. They lost 23-22 and really should have won the game, but were -3 in turnovers. The defense came through with their best performance of the season, holding the Tigers to 23 points and 5.4 yards per play. Now they face this mediocre Texas offense that has been held to 23 points or fewer in four of their last six games, and they should hold them in check as well.

Texas isn't getting margin on anyone in SEC play due to this poor offense. The Longhorns are 4-2 in conference play with three of those four wins coming by 7 points or less. The lone exception was against Oklahoma and a hobbled John Mateer in his first game back from injury. Mateer threw 3 INT's and the Longhorns benefited from a 75-yard punt return TD to win 23-6.

The Razorbacks are treating this as their 'national championship' game while the Longhorns are coming off their biggest game of the season. Even if the Longhorns show up with their best effort, which is unlikely, the Razorbacks are good enough to stay within this inflated number. Bet Arkansas Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Texas State -17.5

Texas State is 4 plays away from being 8-2. If they were 8-2, they would be much bigger favorites here against lifeless Louisiana-Monroe. Instead they are 4-6 and scratching, clawing and fighting to make a bowl game.

Texas State has two OT losses and three losses by 3 points or fewer. When you look at their numbers, they are much closer to a 8-2 team than one that is 4-6. And that played out last week when they handed Southern Miss their first conference loss of the season in a dominant 41-14 victory. Now they take a big step down in class here against the worst team in the Sun Belt in ULM and it should result in another blowout victory.

Injuries have decimated the Warhawks as they sit at 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS this season. The Warnhawks are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall with all six losses coming by double-digits, and four of the six losses coming by 23 points or more.

Injuries at QB have been the biggest issue as the Warhawks are scoring just 11.7 points per game during their six-game losing streak. They have no chance of keeping up with one of the best offenses in the country here. Texas State ranks 24th in scoring offense at 35.3 points per game, 11th in total offense at 474.4 yards per game and 20th at 6.7 yards per play. Don't expect them to let up one ounce with their bowl lives at stake. Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on WKU/LSU OVER 48.5

LSU's offense has been held down this season largely due to playing a rugged SEC schedule that has been the 6th-toughest in the entire country. Garrett Nussmeier got banged up and wasn't the same but played through injury. I like the fact that they have now shut him down for the season and turned over the keys to Mississippi State transfer Michael Van Buren.

Van Buren played very well at Mississippi State last season taking over for an injured Blake Shapen, so he has big-time SEC experience. He played half of the Alabama game and was the much more effective QB. And he started and finished last week's win over Arkansas. Van Buren gives them more mobility to make up for a shaky offensive line, too.

He is completing 67.2% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio while rushing for 60 yards and a score thus far. Now he gets a chance to let his hair down and step out of SEC play and face one of the worst defenses in the country in Western Kentucky this week. I have no doubt LSU is going to hang one of its biggest offense outputs of the season against WKU this week in the final home game at night in Baton Rouge.

Western Kentucky has played the 154th-ranked schedule in the country this season out of terrible C-USA. Despite the easy schedule, they still rank 91st in total defense at 398.8 yards per game and 87th at 5.7 yards per play allowed. Against the best offense they have faced, they allowed 45 points and 508 total yards to Toledo. It will be a similar result for their D against this LSU offense.

Western Kentucky profiles as an OVER team ranking 37th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds with a pass-happy offense. The Hilltoppers rank 12th in the country at 296.1 passing yards per game. They will relish this opportunity to test their offense up against a banged up, overrated LSU defense. I think they can get at least a couple scores here to help contribute to us cashing this OVER 48.5 ticket. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on SMU -2.5

The spot and the motivation really favors SMU in this showdown with Louisville Saturday. That's why they should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over Louisville, and I'll gladly take the value and lay the short number with the Mustangs at home here.

SMU is still alive to make the ACC Championship and thus the 12-team playoff. They are one of four ACC teams with one conference loss and two will make it. They have everything to play for, and they are off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to rest up and get ready to beat Louisville here.

Louisville is coming off consecutive gut-wrenching ACC losses. They were upset by Cal at home by 3 and upset by Clemson at home by 1. They now have three conference losses and no shot of winning the ACC Championship. I question how they'll get back up off the mat here knowing all their dreams are crushed after they were sitting in such a prime position to make a run at a title.

Louisville hasn't been the same offensively since losing their best offensive weapon in RB Isaac Brown (782 yards, 5 TD, 8.6/carry) to a season-ending injury. Now QB Miller Moss (2,344 yards, 11 TD) is questionable. Brown rushed for 130 yards in leading them to a 28-16 win at VA Tech. But he has missed the last two games, and they managed just 23 points at the end of regulation against Cal and 19 against Clemson. They won't find much success against this improving SMU defense, either.

SMU really needed this bye week to recover after playing 6 straight weeks including a 26-20 (OT) win over Miami after a tough 1-point road loss at Wake Forest. I was impressed with how they handled their business on the road at Boston College going into the bye. They blasted the Eagles 45-13 on the road behind 574 total yards of offense. Veteran QB Kevin Jennings is playing his best football of the season here down the stretch. He threw for 365 yards on Miami's vaunted defense and 326 on Boston College.

The Mustangs have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the country. They have gone 16-2 SU at home over the last three seasons. Head coach Rhett Lashlee really emphasizes how important it is to defend their home turf, and it has been a big reason he has been one of the better recruiters in the country as well. Bet SMU Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston PK

The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country. It's just another example of head coach Willie Fritz proving he can turn around a program after doing the same thing at Georgia Southern and Tulane before arriving in Houston. The Cougars are now 8-2 overall and 5-2 in the conference and very much alive to play for a Big 12 title.

The spot favors Houston as well as the Cougars are off their bye week following a 30-27 road win at UCF. That was a very misleading final as the Cougars outgained the Knights 433 to 282, or by 151 total yards. They were able to overcome 4 turnovers, the 2nd consecutive game they have turned it over 4 times. You can bet they have been working on ball security over the bye week and will be buttoned up for this huge game against TCU.

"I think it was really good for us," Fritz said of the bye week. "We had a team meeting on Monday, and I told them our No. 1 goal was to get as healthy as we possibly can. So we were very careful with probably five or six guys who were banged up. We've been getting them through the last two to three games. Now it looks like all of those guys are really healthy."

While the Cougars have everything to play for, the TCU Horned Frogs are dead after consecutive losses to Iowa State at home and BYU on the road. They were blasted 44-13 at BYU to fall to 6-4 straight up and 3-4 in conference play this season. I just don't think they'll show up this week with all of their dreams of winning a Big 12 title gone now.

Houston QB Conner Weignman has revived his career completing 64.9% of his passes for 2,113 yards with a 18-to-7 TD/INT ratio and 8.2 per attempt, while also rushing for 412 yards and 9 TD. This is one of the most improved offenses in the country.

No question Houston has the better defense in this matchup. The Cougars are allowing 22.1 points per game, 333.1 yards per game and 5.0 per play this season. TCU allows 26.5 points per game, 374.3 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. We are getting the better, more motivated, more rested team at home at a PK here which is a tremendous value. Bet Houston Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Marshall/Appalachian State OVER 54.5

Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team with one of the most underrated QB's in the country. The Thundering Herd are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those seven games. That includes 70 with Middle Tennessee, 105 with Louisiana, 72 with ODU, 87 with Texas State and 71 with Coastal Carolina in five of them. This total of 54.5 is way too short for a game involving Marshall right now.

The Thundering Herd rank 39th in scoring offense at 32.6 points per game. But their defense is atrocious, ranking 117th in scoring defense at 31.3 points per game, 109th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game and 118th at 6.2 yards per play.

This will be a big step down in class for this App State offense after having to face two of the top three defenses in the Sun Belt in Old Dominion and James Madison in recent weeks. The Mountaineers really profile as an OVER team because they rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.7 seconds.

Marshall QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is completing 68% of his passes for 1,761 yards with a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 588 yards and 4 scores. He should light up this awful App State defense that ranks 89th in scoring at 30.4 points per game and 85th in total defense at 409.9 yards per game. This is a tired App State defense that just allowed 58 points to James Madison last week.

The Mountaineers were a little stuck in the mud offensively not only because of the tough schedule of late, but also because they were stubborn and stuck with junior QB AJ Swann too long. Well, Swann is out with an injury this week, which opens the door for their better QB in JJ Kohl to take the reigns the rest of the way. Kohl has a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio and 7.1 per attempt compared to Swann with a 10-to-8 TD/INT ratio and 6.7 per attempt. Kohl is the better option and will torch this Marshall defense this week.

Marshall beat App State 52-37 for 89 combined points last season. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, less than 10 MPH winds and only a 10% chance of precipitation. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Pitt/Georgia Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Georgia Tech -2.5

Georgia Tech will host one of the most important games in program history Saturday night at 7:00 EST. With a trip to the ACC Championship Game on the line, you can bet this will be one of the most raucous home crowds the Yellow Jackets have ever had. I don't think it is being factored into this line enough.

It's also Senior Night for one of the best players in program history in senior QB Haynes King. He is one of the most underrated players in the country. He has completed 72.7% of his passes for 2,259 yards with a 10-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 807 yards and 14 scores. I trust in King to lead this team to victory. Saturday night.

What I don't trust is Pitt freshman QB Mason Heintschel to be ready for this moment. He was exposed against Notre Dame throwing several balls into coverage that should have been picked off. This Pitt offense was held to 15 points and 219 total yards by the Fighting Irish. That was even after a TD on the final play of the game in garbage time. Heintschel finished 16-of-33 passing for 126 yards with a INT in the loss.

Making matters worse is that Pitt star RB Desmond Reid was injured in the 4th quarter of that blowout loss when he shouldn't have even been in the game. That leaves his status for this game very much in question. Pitt only rushes for 119.3 yards per game and 3.6 per carry as an offense on the season so they won't even be able to take advantage of Georgia Tech's biggest weakness on D, which is against the run.

I think this line is lower than it should be because Georgia Tech struggled with Boston College last week on the road, needing a last-second FG to win 36-34. The Yellow Jackets were coming off their bye week and they were clearly flat, at least defensively. But in the back of their minds they knew they could lose that game and it wouldn't matter because they would need to win this game against Pitt to make the ACC Championship Game either way.

Yet they still racked up 628 total yards and put together a game-winning drive to show their championship mettle. They will show it off again Saturday night if the game is on the line late. I trust senior King to make the plays necessary and freshman Heintschel to fold under the pressure of the moment.

The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 11-0 SU at home over the last two seasons with one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country. It will be a raucous atmosphere for this one and likely the best home atmosphere over the last two seasons. Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Temple +8.5

Tulane appeared as the Group of 5 team in the 12-team playoff rankings Tuesday night. It just means the committee believes they are the most likely team to get in. It also puts a target squarely on their back, and puts the level of expectations for them higher than they should be.

Head coach Jon Sumrall was right when he said his team didn't look anything like a playoff team. Sumrall's name is also popping up for several head coaching vacancies, which is a major distraction. The Green Wave have all the pressure on them this week, and I don't expect them to handle it very well.

I love this spot for Temple. They lost by 1 to Army going into their bye last week, and now they sit at 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility in head coach KC Keeler's first season on the job. They have North Texas on the road on deck next week, so they know this is their prime opportunity to pull off the upset and get that all-important 6th win as they will be bigger underdogs at North Texas next week.

Tulane is a tired team playing for a 4th consecutive week. The 11-point win over FAU at home as 17-point favorites was far from impressive last week. They actually gave up 472 total yards to FAU and were outgained by 69 yards and fortunate to even win the game as they were +3 in turnovers. And this has been a terrible, leaky Tulane defense that can't be trusted to get margin.

Tulane allowed 48 points and 523 total yards in a 48-26 road loss at UTSA three games ago. They allowed 32 points and 435 total yards to Memphis, and then those 472 yards to FAU in their last three games. They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA, 368 to Memphis and 375 to FAU.

Now they must face one of the most underrated QB's in the country in Temple QB Evan Simon, who has an eye-popping 22-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season. He also has some mobility with 198 rushing yards and 2 TD. Simon has a trio of reliable receivers in Hollawayne (34 receptions, 6 TD), Bermudez (32, 4 TD) and Chase (32, 3 TD) and a reliable TE in Clarke (26, 4 TD). Ducker (729 rushing yards, 6 TD) provides the balance.

Tulane has been far from impressive on the road this season. The Green Wave beat Memphis by 6 which is their best road win. They also needed OT to beat South Alabama 33-31, which is a 3-7 South Alabama team currently. They lost by 22 at UTSA and by 35 at Ole Miss. Temple beat UTSA outright as 6.5-point dogs and should have beaten Navy in a 1-point loss as 10-point dogs but were done in by the refs in two games against AAC teams that are on Tulane's level. Bet Temple Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rutgers +31.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in the country. With that ranking comes expectations that are very difficult to live up to. And the spot is not a good one for the Buckeyes, who have their big rivalry game on deck against Michigan next week. They just want to get in and get out with a victory here and aren't worried about running up the score knowing if they just win out they will make the 12-team playoff.

Ohio State needed a TD in the final minutes to cover the 33-point spread against UCLA at home last week in a 48-10 win. That's a UCLA team that was playing without starting QB Nico. In that game Ohio State star receiver Jeremiah Smith suffered an injury and was forced from the game.

Ohio State was already without Carnell Tate (39 receptions, 711 yards, 7 TD) and now Smith (69 receptions, 902 yards, 10 TD) is banged up. I would be surprised if either of these two star receivers played this week as the Buckeyes know they can win this game without them just by running the football and grinding out a win. The Buckeyes have no problem grinding out games as they rank dead last (136th) in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 31.5 seconds. That limits possessions and makes it more difficult for them to get margin.

I like the spot for Rutgers. They are coming off their bye week so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Ohio State. They sit at 5-5 and one win shy of bowl eligibility and are max motivated. They will have a chance to gain that eligibility next week too against Penn State, but they will be a dog in both games so they won't be looking ahead at that game. I think they'll empty out the playbook this week trying to pull off the upset.

Ohio State hasn't faced many offenses as potent as this Rutgers offense. The Scarlet Knights are scoring 30 points per game while ranking 43rd in total offense at 420.5 yards per game and 23rd in passing offense at 277.4 yards per game. Athan Kaliakmanis is one of the best QB's the Buckeyes have faced this season. He is completing 62.3% of his passes for 2,705 yards with a 17-to-7 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.3 per attempt.

The Scarlet Knights have underrated playmakers at receiver too, and Antwan Raymond has already topped 1,000 rushing yards on the season with 11 TD. This Rutgers offense won't be in a hurry either knowing that limiting possessions is their best chance to keep it close. This just feels like a really sleepy spot for Ohio State with Michigan on deck. Bet Rutgers Saturday.

20* MWC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on New Mexico/Air Force UNDER 55.5

Air Force lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn last week. Their offense will be lost without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka. He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt. His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

This is a great matchup for New Mexico's defense. Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry. They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages. They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

After being dreadful to start the season, Air Force's defense has had a huge turn here down the stretch and has allowed just 21 points per game in its last four games. I think they can hold New Mexico in check enough to keep this game UNDER the total.

There will be very few possessions in this game as both teams like to play at a snail's pace. Air Force ranks 119th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 28.7 seconds. They will probably go even slower now without Szarka and with a backup QB to try and shorten this game as much as possible. New Mexico ranks 96th in tempo snapping the ball every 27.4 seconds and will be in no hurry, either. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* USC/Oregon CBS No-Brainer on OVER 59

Two of the best offenses in the country square off Saturday in what should be a shootout between former Pac-12 rivals USC and Oregon, who have been notorious for playing in shootouts when they get together. It will be no different now that they are in the Big Ten.

USC ranks 11th in scoring offense at 38.2 points per game and 7th in total offense at 488.9 yards per game. More impressive yet, the Trojans rank 2nd averaging 7.4 yards per play. The problem is while the defense is improved, it is also very injured right now after losing three starters to injury in a physical game against Iowa last week. S Bishop Fitzgerald (51 tackles, 5 INT), S Kamari Ramsey (27 tackles) and DE Braylan Shelby (22 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT) all left the game and did not return.

Oregon ranks 7th in scoring offense at 39.0 points per game, 12th in total offense at 475.4 yards per game and 3rd at 7.4 yards per play. So these are two of the top three offenses in the country from a yards per play perspective. Oregon's offensive numbers are also tamed a bit due to playing in some poor weather a few games, and the same can be said for USC's offense having to play in some poor weather this season against Iowa and Nebraska.

Conditions will be perfect for a shootout Saturday with temps around 50, no wind and no rain. USC and Oregon have combined for at least 55 points in nine consecutive meetings, including 63 or more in eight of those nine. They have averaged 75.2 combined points per game in those nine meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico -3

New Mexico is quietly 7-3 this season and in a five-way tie for 2nd place in the Mountain West with a real shot to make the conference championship game in head coach Jason Eck's first season on the job. They are highly motivated to win these last two games and hopefully win out on some tiebreakers to get into the title game.

New Mexico has won four straight including a 33-14 home win over Utah State and a 40-35 upset road win at UNLV as 4.5-point dogs. They had a bye week after that UNLV game and returned from it last week a little rusty. That helps explain how they struggled to put away Colorado State 20-17. But they lost fumbled four times and lost all four fumbles, which most teams wouldn't be able to overcome. They were able to, and that's a good sign of the character of this team.

While New Mexico has everything to play for right now, Air Force just suffered its 7th loss of the season and will not be going to a bowl game because of it. The Falcons will be playing for a 4th consecutive week after four wars against Army, San Jose State and UConn. And the biggest reason I'm fading the Falcons this week is because they just lost their all-everything QB to a broken arm in that 26-16 loss at UConn.

Now the Falcons have to fly clear back across the country and play without their leader and best player in QB Liam Szarka. He has rushed for 923 yards and 13 TD while also throwing for 1,290 yards and 9 TD on 10.8 per attempt. His backup Kemper Hodges is a converted fullback who isn't nearly as explosive.

The matchup really favors the Lobos, too. Their biggest strength is stopping the run as they rank 13th in the country allowing 105.7 rushing yards per game and 24th at 3.4 yards per carry. They are holding opponents to 46 yards per game and 1.2 per carry less than their season averages. They are elite at stopping the run and will be ready for this triple-option.

New Mexico has a solid, balanced offense that averages 234 passing yards per game, 151 rushing yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. The Lobos will feast on one of the worst defenses in the country in the Falcons, who rank 122nd in scoring at 32.3 points per game allowed, 129th at 446.6 yards per game and 135th at 7.4 yards per play. Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on New England Patriots -7

Note:I really like Patriots O 29.5 team total. I also like 6-point teasers with the Patriots -1. Good options to pair with them are the 49ers -1, Rams -0.5, Cowboys +9.5.

The Cincinnati Bengals fell to 3-7 on the season with their 34-12 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. It was a pretty pathetic effort considering they were off their bye week and with a chance to sweep the Steelers in the season series, which would have kept their hopes alive to make the playoffs. Now all hope is gone, and I question how much they want to show up this week.

WR Jamar Chase got suspended for this game after losing his temper and spitting on Jalen Ramsey. The offense will be lost without Chase, who was forming a great chemistry with Flacco. Now Flacco is clearly nursing a shoulder injury that he is playing through and just hasn't been the same since suffering it. The Bengals managed just 297 yards against a poor Pittsburgh defense last week and got a lot of those yards in garbage time with the game decided.

But the biggest problem for the Bengals is having the worst defense in the NFL. They rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.4 points per game, 32nd at 418.2 yards per game and 31st at 6.5 yards per play. The kicker was giving up 39 points and 502 yards to Justin Fields and the Jets and 47 points and 576 total yards to Caleb Williams and the Bears going into the bye.

If things couldn't get any worse for this Bengals defense, they are now without four of their best players on defense in DE Trey Hendrickson, DE Shemar Stewart, DE Cam Sample and CB Cam Taylor-Britt. You can just imagine what this Patriots offense is going to do to them.

Drake Maye is among the MVP favorites while leading the Patriots to eight consecutive victories coming into this one. Maye is completing 71.9% of his passes for 2,836 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 285 yards and two scores. Now he gets both WR Boutte (341 yards, 5 TD) and RB Stevenson (279 yards, 3 TD) back from injury this week. And rookie RB Henderson has scored 5 touchdowns in his last two games without Stevenson and is coming into his own.

What's most amazing about the Patriots is that they are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now despite not having their bye week yet. They are refreshed with a mini-bye week after beating the Jets 27-14 last Thursday. You can't run on their defense, which ranks 1st against the run at 84.7 yards per game and 8th at 3.9 yards per carry. So the Bengals are going to have to be one-dimensional, which isn't a recipe for success in the NFL. This will get ugly quickly, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some quit in the Bengals in the 2H. Bet the Patriots Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Giants/Lions OVER 49.5

The New York Giants are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state going 5-1 OVER in their last six games. Jameis Winson is an OVER QB who will stretch the field but also make costly mistakes to set up opponents for easy scores. And the Giants currently have one of the worst defenses in the NFL due to all their injuries.

The Lions are pretty healthy and explosive on offense when in a dome, which they will be this week when they return home. But the Lions are decimated with injuries on defense, and I think Winston and company will have success against them through the air against their banged up secondary.

The Lions are scoring 33.5 points per game at home this season. They'll be facing a New York defense that is allowing an average of 31.2 points per game in their last five games. The Giants will be without LB Thibodeaux and CB Adebo again this week, and SS Nubin and CB Banks are both questionable. The Lions will top their season average in this one, especially against a Giants D that has allowed an average of 175.2 rushing yards per game in their last five games. The Lions will score every time they get to the red zone.

Winston had the ball deep in Green Bay territory before throwing a INT in the end zone in a 27-20 loss last week. That was nearly a 27-27 tie and 54 combined points. That's a Green Bay team with an elite defense too, and he held up well against it. His job will be much easier this week indoors against this hobbled Detroit defense. It will also be easiest since he gets his best receiver in Darius Slayton back from a hamstring injury.

The Lions will be without both CB Terrion Arnold and FS Kerby Joseph this week. DE Josh Paschal and DE Marcus Davenport remain out. After facing two poor offenses in the Commanders with Mariota and the hapless Eagles offense, the Lions will meet their match this week. Keep in mind they gave up 27 points to the Vikings and JJ McCarthy in their last home game, and McCarthy couldn't have looked worse since. The Giants will easily get into the 20's while the Lions get into the 30's and we easily cash this OVER 49.5 ticket. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Colts/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City -3

There have been 14 teams since 1990 to be 5-5 or worse and favored over a team that has won 80% or more of their games in the 11th game of the season or later. Those 14 teams went 14-0 SU & 12-0-2 ATS. The Chiefs are the 15th team in this situation, and they are favored here at home for good reason.

The Chiefs have their bye two weeks ago and are as healthy as any team in the NFL right now. They came up short on a last-second FG in Denver, but they will bounce back at home here against the Colts. They go from being 4.5-point road favorites in Denver to only 3-point home favorites over the Colts. This line makes no sense as the Colts and Broncos are power rated as near equals and even played a coin flip in Indianapolis earlier this season in which Denver was favored.

The Chiefs have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 points per game. The Colts are 2-2 on the road losing to the Rams by 7 and the Steelers by 7. They are much more vulnerable on the highway, and this will easily be their stiffest road test of the season.

The Colts have a commanding lead in the AFC South and can afford a loss. I also think the bye week came at a bad time considering they were rolling. The bye week could have only halted their momentum as they went into it fat and happy. Teams winning 80% or more of their games and coming off a bye in Week 10 or later are just 36-50-1 ATS since 2005.

Sitting at 5-5 on the season, the Chiefs need this game like blood and cannot afford a loss if they want to make the playoffs. I think they put their best foot forward as a result. The Chiefs went 9-1 to open last season but actually had worse numbers than they do at 5-5 this season. The difference is they won all their one-score games last year, and they are 0-5 in one-score games this season. They are averaging 364.2 yards per game and 5.9 per paly on offense and allowing just 396.8 yards per game and 5.6 per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 68 yards per game. Bet the Chiefs Sunday.