Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Hawaii -12

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 17-5 this season. One of those wins came 98-71 at home over CS-Bakersfield on January 22nd just a few weeks ago. This despite shooting just 7-of-26 (26.9%) from 3-point range, yet they still won by 27. It should be another blowout in the rematch tonight.

Bakersfield has been a dumpster fire during its current 8-game losing streak. Five of its last six losses have come by 16 points or more. The Roadrunners have been blown out on the regular, largely due to losing two of their best players to injury.

CJ Hardy (13.7 PPG) has missed the past nine games while Jaden Alexander (9.4 PPG) has missed the past five games. The Roadrunners don't have enough talent or depth to be able to overcome these losses. Bet Hawaii Thursday.

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15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/Jazz OVER 238.5

The Blazers have gotten healthy with Avidja, Holiday, Grant and Henderson all back and playing now. They are a dead nuts OVER team in their current state going 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall. They have gone for 237 or more combined points in all six games, so this total of 238.5 is pretty short for a game involving Portland right now.

The Jazz have been a dead nuts OVER team all season ranking 3rd in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating. They just played a low-scoring game last night against the Kings, who were missing 6 of their top 7 scorers. That result has kept this total lower than it should be. Portland is a different animal.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Jazz and Blazers. They combined for 270 and 254 points in their first two meetings this season. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Denver ML +105

Denver wants revenge from a 87-79 road loss at South Dakota State in their first meeting this season on January 8th. SDSU shot 50% from the field while Denver shot just 43.5%. I expect the Pioneers to have some positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch at home.

Denver is playing well going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall with its lone loss coming by just 2 points to Omaha. The Pioneers won all three of their road games during this stretch beating UMKC 69-61 as 3.5-point favorites, upsetting North Dakota State 78-71 as 12.5-point dogs and upsetting North Dakota 98-79 as 3.5-point dogs.

South Dakota State has gone the other direction. The Jackrabbits are 1-4 SU in their last five games overall with their lone win coming against Oral Roberts, the worst team in the conference at 5-20 (0-10). They lost to St. Thomas twice, were upset as 10.5-point favorites against South Dakota and were upset by 9 at Omaha.

The Jackrabbits are 2-7 SU in true road games this season. I'll gladly back the revenge-minded team playing the better basketball as underdogs tonight. Bet Denver on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota State/Denver OVER 158.5

Denver is a dead nuts OVER team going 19-4 OVER in all games this season including 7-1 OVER in home games. The Pioneers rank 122nd in adjusted tempo, 76th in adjusted offense and just 358th in adjusted defense.

South Dakota State is also better on offense (196th) than defense (221st). This will be a rematch from a 87-79 home win for SDSU over Denver on January 8th and 166 combined points. Neither team shot the lights out as SDSU made just 33.3% from 3-point range while Denver shot 43.5% overall and 37.5% from 3-point range. It should be another shootout in the rematch here. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Summit League Total DOMINATOR on St. Thomas/Omaha OVER 155.5

St. Thomas is the 2nd-best offensive team in the Summit League behind only Denver. The Tommies rank 101st in adjusted offense, 6th in effective FG percentage and 1st in 2-point percentage. They get all kinds of easy, good looks at the rim. The Tommies are scoring 82.8 points per game this season and have yet to play an OT game.

Omaha has been much better offensively since getting leading scorer Paul Djobet (20.5 PPG) back from injury. Djobet just poured in 38 points in a 92-84 loss to North Dakota State and 176 combined points last time out. The Mavericks have now scored at least 77 points in four four of their last five games overall. They are still a terrible defensive team, ranking 285th in adjusted defense.

St. Thomas is 4-1 OVER in its last five games overall with 161 or more combined points in four of those five games. Omaha is 3-1 OVER in its last four games overall. The way these teams are trending, it should be a shootout tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Horizon League Total DOMINATOR on Youngstown State/Oakland OVER 155.5

Oakland is a dead nuts OVER team going 15-9 OVER in all games this season including 6-1 OVER in home games. The Golden Grizzlies are scoring 83.3 points per game and allowing 81.5 points per game this season. They are scoring 93.8 points per game at home.

What makes the Golden Grizzlies such an OVER team is they play fast ranking 33rd in adjusted tempo. They are elite offensively ranking 72nd in adjusted offense and terrible defensively ranking 256th in adjusted defense.

Youngstown State ranks in the middle of the pack in tempo, offense and defense. But the Penguins will be forced to get into a shootout here with Oakland controlling the tempo playing at home.

They already got in one shootout with the Golden Grizzlies in their first meeting this season, falling 85-83 at home for 168 combined points. They only lost by 2 despite shooting 42.6% from the field and 28.6% from 3-point range. They are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch, and thus this should be another shootout. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Horizon League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Robert Morris/Cleveland State OVER 151.5

Cleveland State is a dead nuts OVER team. The Vikings rank 95th in adjusted tempo, 151st in adjusted offense and just 357th in adjusted defense. They are 15-7 OVER in all games this season, and this total of 151.5 is pretty short for a game involving the Vikings.

Indeed, Cleveland State and its opponents have combined for at least 156 points in nine consecutive games coming into this one, making for a 9-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 151.5-point total. The Vikings and their opponents have combined for at least 152 points in 12 of their last 13 games as well.

Robert Morris is also a much better offensive team than defensive team. The Colonials rank 165th in adjusted offense and just 229th in adjusted defense. And while they like to play much slower than their opponent tonight, the Vikings will control the tempo playing at home. Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.