15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Colorado +15.5

The Colorado Buffaloes won't have their normal home-court advantage today with students home for Christmas Break. They also won't have it due to playing another team from Colorado here in Northern Colorado, which will be the more motivated team to prove their chops against a Power 4 opponent.

Colorado has been grossly overvalued going 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games. The Buffaloes only beat Cal Baptist by 8 as 12.5-point favorites, lost at Colorado State by 5, only beat Portland State by 11 as 16-point home favorites and lost on a neutral to Stanford by 9 as 3-point favorites.

We saw Cal Baptist and Portland State take Colorado to the wire on the road, and Northern Colorado is better than both of those teams. The Bears are 9-3 this season with their 3 losses coming by 1, 7 and 11 points. That 11-point loss was impressive because it came on the road at Texas Tech as 25-point dogs in their last road games. If they can hang with Texas Tech, they can certainly hang with Colorado. Bet Northern Colorado Sunday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Fullerton/SMU OVER 173.5

SMU is a dead nuts OVER team. The Mustangs rank 118th in adjusted tempo, 24th in average length of offensive possession, 33rd in adjusted offense and just 78th in adjusted defense. They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall including a 99-82 home win over Central Arkansas last time out for 181 combined points. They have scored at least 87 points in nine of their 12 games this season.

What makes CS-Fullerton a dead nuts OVER team is playing at a break-neck pace, ranking 4th in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession. The Titans are also better offensively than they are defensively, ranking 240th in adjusted defense.

Fullerton is 6-2 OVER in its last eight games overall. The Titans and their opponents have combined for at least 182 points in six of their last nine games overall. So this total of 173.5 is actually pretty short for a game involving Fullerton. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -6.5

The Boston Celtics are a better team than most people realize this season. They are 19-11 SU & 17-13 ATS while ranking 4th in the NBA in net rating (+7), trailing only the Thunder, Rockets and Nuggets in that department. So they have consistently been the best team in the East even ahead of the Knicks.

The Celtics are 14-4 SU & 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall and have stayed remarkably healthy with nobody on the injury report currently. They have been at their best on the road during this stretch going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. They won by 18 at Indiana and by 16 at Toronto in their last two road games.

The Portland Trail Blazers are a mess right now due to to all their injuries. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall which have all come at home. They lost by 8 to Detroit, by 4 to Orlando and by 16 to the short-handed Clippers.

Avidja and Sharpe are solid players, but the Blazers are really missing a point guard without Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson. They are also without Jerami Grant and Robert Williams. Avidja and Sharpe are being asked to do too much of the ball-handling and their offense is a mess. They have scored 106 or fewer points in four consecutive games now. Bet the Celtics Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Grizzlies/Wizards OVER 240

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 8th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating. They are as healthy as they have been in a long time and their offense thrives with Alex Sarr (18.2 PPG) in the lineup.

The Wizards are coming off a 138-117 home win over the Raptors for 255 combined points. They just recently played the Grizzlies and beat them 130-122 for 252 combined points on December 20th. Neither team shot the lights out either as the Wizards shot 47.5% and the Grizzlies 45%.

The Grizzlies now have JA Morant back in the lineup who they didn't have in that first meeting with the Wizards. Morant is a dead nuts OVER player providing a lot on the offensive end including extra pace, but nothing on defense. The Grizzlies have scored at least 119 points in six of their last eight games including 125 and 137 in their last two.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 252 combined points in each of the last two meetings. This total of 240 is too short tonight for two teams that rank inside the Top 10 in pace. Bet he OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Giants/Raiders Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 41.5

The loser of this game has the inside track to the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Both teams have decided to sit some guys that makes it seem like they may be doing everything they can to lose this game. And the best way to lose a game is to not score points, which is why I really like the UNDER in this game Sunday.

The Giants managed just 141 total yards against the Vikings last week in a game it looked like they were tanking as Jaxson Dart attempted only 13 passes despite trailing all game. They are doing everything they can to keep Dart healthy, which has really limited the playbook.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR. They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and aren't brining back LT Miller, G Powers-Johnson or G Meredith from IR when at least two of them could have returned, especially Miller. They also just decided to shut down their best weapon in TE Brock Bowers, placing him on IR earlier this week, a sign they are tanking and doing everything to not score.

Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play. The strength of the Raiders is their defensive line, and they will wreak havoc on this banged up New York offensive line. The same can be said for the Giants, who have elite pass rushers to get after Geno Smith.

The Raiders and their opponents have combined for 41 or fewer points in eight of their 15 games this season. They rank dead last (32nd) in total offense at 248.9 yards per game. They are a dead nuts UNDER team, and given the tanking nature of both teams with all the players they are missing on offense, I just can't see a shootout. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: San Francisco 49ers -3

The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 16.4 points per game. This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (75.8).

Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 34.4 points per game during this five-game winning streak. He just threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis. He should stay hot against a Chicago defense that ranks 19th in scoring at 23.6 points per game, 25th in total defense at 348.1 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.

The 49ers will be max motivated because if they win out they will get the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Bears could be in a big letdown spot here after another improbable 22-16 (OT) home win over the Packers. Trailing 16-6 in the final two minutes, they kicked a 43-yard FG in the wind, got the onside kick and scored a TD on 4th down to tie it at 16-16. They forced a fumble in OT and took advantage with a 46-yard TD pass from Williams to Moore to walk it off.

Several Bears players were seen wearing cheese grater hats after the game as it was a huge win over a division rival in the Packers that gave them a 1.5-game lead. The Bears will be 'fat and happy' off that win, plus they have the luxury of knowing they just need to win one of their final two games to clinch the division, or have the Packers lose one of their final two games. The Packers play the Ravens Saturday night, and if they lose that game the Bears will clinch the division and be even less motivated for this game against the 49ers.

I think the 49ers are the better team on both sides of the football, they are at home, and they have more to play for here. Not only does Kyle Shanahan deserve Coach of the Year for what he is doing with this banged up roster, Robert Saleh is proving his chops as a defensive coordinator. Despite losing Bosa and Warner early in the season, the 49ers still rank 11th in scoring defense at 21.3 points per game and 18th in total defense at 332.2 yards per game. With as good as their offense is, they just need an average defense to be a contender and they have that. They are also as healthy as they have been in a long time on both sides of the football.

Both the Bears and 49ers are 11-4 this season. The Bears rank 1st in the league with a +21 turnover differential while the 49ers are -4. That just shows you how much better the 49ers are as they are a net -25 in turnovers compared to the Bears and still have the same record. The Bears are 7-2 in one-score games. I think this is where Chicago's luck finally runs out.

The Bears haven't been nearly as potent offensively without WR Rome Odunze (44 receptions, 661 yards, 6 TD). They had 6 points in 58 minutes against a banged up Green Bay defense last week. RT Darnell Wright didn't travel with the team. Defensively, the Bears are very short-handed in the secondary with four CB's out and another three CB's questionable, including starters Wright and Gardner-Johnson. LB TJ Edwards is questionable this week as well. Purdy will light up this secondary. The Bears are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after playing Green Bay. Bet the 49ers Sunday.

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15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Colts OVER 47.5

The Jaguars are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall. They have gone for 51 or more combined points in six of those eight games. The only two games they didn't came against two dead nuts under teams in the Chargers and Titans.

Head coach Liam Coen, QB Trevor Lawrence, and new WR Jakobi Myers are all in sync right now and hitting on all cylinders. In fact, the Jaguars have scored 25 or more points in eight consecutive games while averaging 33.0 points per game in those eight games.

No question the Jaguars are going to stay hot and hang a big number on an Indianapolis defense that just allowed 48 points and 5 passing TD's to Brock Purdy on Monday Night Football. They also allowed 36 points to the Jaguars three games ago.

I was impressed with Philip Rivers on Monday Night leading the Colts to 27 points in that 48-27 loss to the 49ers that saw 75 combined points. Rivers threw for 277 yards and 2 TD with one INT in the loss. The Jaguars did allow 445 total yards to Bo Nix and the Broncos last week, so I think the Colts will have plenty of offensive success to contribute to this total. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Bears/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 51

The San Francisco 49ers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins coming by 11 points or more and by an average of 16.4 points per game. This run has coincided with getting Brock Purdy back healthy, and he leads the NFL in QBR (75.8).

Purdy has this San Francisco offense humming with an average of 34.4 points per game during this five-game winning streak. He just threw 5 TD passes in a 48-27 win at Indianapolis. He should stay hot against a Chicago defense that ranks 19th in scoring at 23.6 points per game, 25th in total defense at 348.1 yards per game and 28th at 6.1 yards per play.

The 49ers are going to hang a big number on the Bears, and Caleb Williams and company will be forced to keep up in a shootout. I think the Bears are capable with the offensive-minded Ben Johnson calling the shots. Chicago ranks 5th in total offense at 371.5 yards per game with tremendous balance. The Bears get back Luther Burden from injury and will have their full compliment of weapons this week outside Rome Odunze. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.

The 49ers have a mediocre defense without Warner and Bosa. They have managed to patch it together, but against the elite offenses of the NFL they have given up a lot of points. They just gave up 27 points to Philip Rivers and the Colts last week after allowing 24 points to the lowly Titans the previous week.

The 49ers are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall going for 58 or more combined points in five of those seven games. This is actually a very low total for this game that features two of the top offenses in the NFL up against two of the weaker defenses. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Saints/Titans OVER 39.5

This game features two of the most exciting rookie QB's in the league in Cam Ward of the Titans and Tyler Shough of the Saints. I think both rookies will be looking to show out here, especially Shough who is the 2nd choice in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds currently.

Shough has led the Saints to three consecutive victories putting up 24 points on Tampa Bay, 20 on Carolina and 29 on the Jets. He just threw 49 times for 308 yards last week, a clear sign that QB Kellen Moore is trying to get him the numbers he needs to win Rookie of the Year. It's also due to injuries to their top two RB's, so the Saints just have to go more pass-happy with a lack of a running game. A pass-happy game plan will lead to more clock stoppages and more points.

The Titans are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games. They won a 31-29 thriller in Cleveland for 60 combined points. They lost a 37-24 shootout to the 49ers for 61 combined points. And last week they hung 26 points and 376 total yards on the Chiefs. The running game is clicking, and the Titans are fully healthy on offense right now here down the stretch and it shows.

I like backing OVERS in games between eliminated teams late in the season when I know both offenses are trying. And that's the case with both of these teams. I think the offenses are ahead of the defenses at this point in the season too, and this total of 39.5 is too short today as a result. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Las Vegas Raiders ML +102

Note: I also like a 6-point teaser with the Raiders +7.5 or better paired with the Bengals -1 and/or the Titans +7.5 or better.

The loser of this game will likely get the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. I trust Pete Carroll to coach this game harder than interim Mike Kafka, because it's not in Carroll's nature to lose games on purpose. It's like like it's a killer QB draft class, either.

The Giants have looked like they've been tanking for weeks. They are 0-9 SU in their last nine games overall and just had 141 total yards in their loss to the Vikings last week. They don't want to get Jaxson Dart hurt again and haven't been using the entire playbook as a result.

Of course, it's difficult for Dart to have any success being this banged up New York offensive line that will be without three starters this week as the Giants just put LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael Schmitz and RG Evan Neal on IR. They also just ruled out one of their best weapons in Theo Johnson, a sign that they are tanking.

The Raiders have at least been competitive here down the stretch. That was evident last week in a 23-21 road loss to the Texans as 14-point dogs in a game they should have won. They outgained the Texans 315 to 270, or by 45 total yards.

The Raiders have by far the better defense in this game. Las Vegas ranks 15th in total defense at 326.1 yards per game and 12th at 5.3 yards per play. New York ranks 29th in total defense at 373 yards per game and 29th at 6.1 yards per play.

Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty had 188 yards from scrimmage and 2 TD last week against that vaunted Houston defense that is the best in the NFL. He should feast on this Giants defense whose biggest weakness is against the run. They rank 31st allowing 150.9 rushing yards per game and dead last (32nd) allowing 5.5 yards per carry. Wrong team favored here. Bet the Raiders on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Bengals -7

Note: I love the Bengals -1 in a 6-point teaser. My favorite pairings with them are the Raiders +7.5 or better and Titans +7.5 or better.

The Arizona Cardinals are 0-7 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall losing five times by 7 points or more and four times by 19 points or more. They are getting blown out on the regular, and they are better off at this point losing games to try and get the best draft pick possible. Given all the guys they are sitting due to injury here down the stretch, it appears they are doing just that.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now. They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games. They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters. They have another four questionable. Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

That's bad news for them going up against a Cincinnati offense that is one of the top units in the NFL in their current form. The Bengals are fully healthy on offense basically for the first time all season. We saw what that led to last week in a 45-21 road win at Miami. Joe Burrow threw 4 TD passes in the win and looks like his old self again. Burrow also led the Bengals to 34 points against the Bills three weeks ago and 32 points against the Ravens four weeks ago. This offense is explosive, and now they face perhaps the worst defense they will have faced all season in the Cardinals, who rank 29th in scoring defense at 27.6 points per game.

The Cardinals are also in trouble on offense due to an offensive line that is basically missing four starters now. C Froholdt is questionable or it will be five. That gives Jacoby Brissett little chance of being able to completely keep up with the Bengals in a shootout, because the Bengals are going to hang a big number on them no matter what. The Cardinals have averaged a modest 20.1 points per game during their current 7-game losing streak. Bet the Bengals Sunday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cardinals/Bengals OVER 52

The Arizona Cardinals are a dead nuts OVER team. They are 8-3 OVER in their last 11 games overall. They are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games, five of which have seen 51 or more combined points, with four of those going for 60 or more combined points. It took a missed XP and two missed FG for us to not cash OVER 45.5 last week as the Falcons and Cardinals combined for 45 points.

The Cardinals have one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now. They have allowed 40 or more points in four of their last seven games. They are running out of healthy bodies on defense with 10 guys either on IR or out and most of them starters. They have another four questionable. Their entire projected starting secondary is either out or questionable.

This Arizona offense is forced to play fast to try and keep up in shootouts, and Jacoby Brissett has been doing a good job of it getting the ball to two of the most underrated weapons in the NFL in TE Trey McBride and WR Michael Wilson. The Cardinals have scored at least 22 points in seven of their last 10 games. Now WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and WR Xavier Weaver returned from injuries last week to give Brissett more weapons outside.

The Cincinnati Bengals are also a dead nuts OVER team with an elite offense and terrible defense. We have seen that offense light up opponents in recent weeks. The Bengals are coming off a 45-21 win at Miami. They also got in a 39-34 shootout with Buffalo three weeks ago. Joe Burrow and this entire offense is fully healthy, so the Bengals are going to put up a big number on this Arizona defense.

It's also say to say this awful Cincinnati defense is going to give up plenty of points to Arizona, too. The Bengals rank 32nd in scoring defense at 30.5 points per game, 32nd in total defense at 402.8 yards per game and 32nd at 6.6 yards per play. The Bengals will be without DE Joseph Ossai, and DT B.J. Hill is questionable. Brissett should have all day to find receivers against this weak Cincinnati pass rush.

It will be great weather in Cincinnati Sunday with temps in the 60's, and the winds won't be too strong plus there is very little chance of precipitation. This game just screams shootout with the way these two teams are built right now. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Dolphins OVER 46.5

This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE. Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense. This version of the Bucs offense is one of the best in the NFL and the one that was lighting up teams early on in the season. They should get their swagger back this week.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs. They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it. They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips. The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

Rookie Quinn Ewers actually played well outside of his 2 INT against in the 45-21 home loss to the Bengals that saw 66 combined points last week. The Dolphins had 389 total yards in that game, including 260 passing from Ewers completing 20-of-30 attempts. This Tampa Bay defense can be had as it ranks 27th in the NFL allowing 6.0 yards per play this season.

The forecast looks great for another shootout in Miami with temps approaching 80, no wind and no rain. I expect the Bucs to get in the 30's and the Dolphins to get in the 20's in this one. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Bucs -4.5

The Tampa Bay Bucs are in must-win mode if they want a chance to win the NFC South and make the playoffs. This is the ultimate 'buy low' spot on the Bucs after going 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. We'll gladly take advantage and lay the short number here with the Bucs on the road against the hapless Miami Dolphins.

A big reason for the Bucs' struggles has been injuries during this stretch, but they are now as healthy as they have been basically all season going into Week 17. This is the first time that Baker Mayfield has had his full compliment of weapons at RB, WR and TE. Only LT Tristan Wirfs is out on offense.

Mayfield and company should hang a big number on this Miami defense that just allowed 45 points to the Bengals last week the game after getting eliminated from the playoffs. They let go of the rope, and they have no reason to try and grab back onto it. They will be without three of their best defenders in FS Minkah Fitzpatrick, DT Benito Jones and his backup in DT Jordan Phillips. The Dolphins are very thin on the defensive line and in the secondary.

The Bucs are fully healthy on defense for the first time in a long time. The only key player they are missing is CB Zyon McCollum, who has been on IR for weeks. This version of this defense held the Panthers in check last week to just 23 points and 275 total yards. They will be good enough to keep rookie QB Quinn Ewers and this Miami offense that lacks weapons in check. The Dolphins have scored 21 points or fewer in four of their last five games coming in.

The Bucs have lost three straight games outright to division opponents by 1, 3 and 4 points. Eight teams have been listed as a favorite since 2009 after losing three straight games against division opponents, and those eight teams went 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 15.8 points per game. The Bucs need it more and they'll go out and get it to keep their playoff hopes alive heading into Week 18. Bet the Bucs Sunday.