Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: St. Louis/Rhode Island UNDER 153

Saint Louis is an elite offensive team. But the Billikens have actually been better defensively, which is the biggest reason they are 24-1 this season and one of the best mid-majors in the country.

They rank 21st in adjusted defense and 1st in effective FG percentage defense. The Billikens are 7-2 UNDER in their last nine games overall. These St. Louis totals have really been inflated in conference play.

Rhode Island is a dead nuts UNDER team. The Rams rank 286th in adjusted tempo, 166th in adjusted offense and 81st in adjusted defense. The Rams and their opponents have combined for 151 or fewer points at the end of regulation in 10 of their last 12 games overall.

Rhode Island will control the tempo playing at home tonight. The Rams want to slow this thing down to a crawl to give them their best chance to be competitive. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

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20* Big East TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Villanova/Xavier OVER 151.5

Xavier is a dead nuts OVER team. The Musketeers are 19-6 OVER in all games this season including 11-4 OVER in home games. They rank 39th in adjusted tempo, 29th in average length of offensive possession, 90th in adjusted offense and 116th in adjusted defense. They are also just 260th in effective FG percentage defensively.

Xavier is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games overall finishing with 152 or more combined points in eight of those nine games. This is a very low total for a game involving Xavier.

Villanova is 10-2 OVER in its last 12 games overall. The Wildcats are an elite offensive team ranking 31st in adjusted offense. They will hang a big number on this poor Xavier defense to lead the way to use cashing this OVER ticket. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Akron/Western Michigan OVER 158

This is a very low total for a game involving Akron. The Zips are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 31st in adjusted tempo, 26th in average length of offensive possession, 48th in adjusted offense, 9th in effective FG percentage offense, 150th in adjusted defense and 170th in effective FG percentage defense.

Western Michigan ranks 180th in adjusted tempo, 183rd in adjusted offense and 331st in adjusted defense. The Broncos are one of the worst defensive teams in the country.

Both offenses are great shooting 3-pointers with Akron 9th in the country at 38% and WMU 105th at 35.2%. Both teams are terrible at defending the 3-pointer with WMU ranking 292nd allowing 35.9% and Akron 230th at 34.9%. Both teams are willing to give up looks from 3.

We saw that play out in their first meeting this season with Akron beating Western Michigan 104-89 for 193 combined points. Akron shot 20-of-35 (57.1%) from 3 while WMU shot 12-of-26 (46.2%) from 3. Obviously I don't expect both teams to shoot as well again, but this total is 35 points less than the 193 they combined for so we have a lot of margin for error. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on UCF ML -120

I love the spot for UCF tonight. The Knights will be motivated to bounce back from three consecutive losses. They lost at Houston and at Cincinnati while also falling at home to WVU. They are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.

TCU is in a massive letdown spot tonight off three consecutive victories by 7 points or fewer. Two came against two of the worst teams int he Big 12 in K-State (by 2) and Oklahoma State (in OT). The Horned Frogs are a tired team coming off that OT game at Oklahoma State. They will also be playing their 4th game in 11 days. Bet UCF on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* MAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio/UMass OVER 161.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off tonight when Miami visits UMass. This will be a rematch from a 86-84 home win by Miami and 170 combined points on January 27th. Neither team shot the lights out in that game, so it should be another high-scoring game in the rematch tonight.

Miami is 14-8 OVER in all games this season. The Redhawks rank 45th in adjusted tempo, 61st in adjusted offense and just 147th in adjusted defense. They rank 3rd in effective FG percentage offensively and are scoring 92.6 points per game this season.

UMass plays even faster ranking 33rd in adjusted tempo. The Minutemen are 92nd in effective FG percentage offensively and 244th in effective FG percentage defensively. They are 16-9 OVER in all games this season scoring 81.0 points per game.

UMass has gone OVER in three consecutive games coming in with 184 combined points with Central Michigan, 185 with Coastal Carolina and 191 with Akron. This total of 161.5 has been set too short for this one. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on UMass +3.5

Miami Ohio is 25-0 this season as the only remaining unbeaten team in the country. With that label comes a lot of pressure, and this looks like the spot where they will slip up on the road against a 'game' UMass team coached by the legendary Frank Martin.

UMass only lost 86-84 at Miami Ohio as 9.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season. The Minutemen already proved they could play with the Redhawks on the road, and I think they get their revenge at home in the rematch tonight.

UMass just took Akron to the wire on the road on Friday in a 99-92 loss as 12.5-point road dogs. Akron is probably the best team in the MAC despite Miami having the better record. That 7-point loss to Akron was their 2nd-largest margin of defeat all season. The Minutemen have been a hard-lucky team with 10 of their 11 losses coming by 7 points or fewer. In fact, 5 of their last 6 losses have come by 3 points or less. Bet UMass Tuesday.