4* VEGAS INSIDER on IU Indianapolis +5

Northern Kentucky is being asked to cover a big number in a building where they historically struggle to pull away.
The Norse are a completely different team when they aren't playing in front of their own fans.

Their offensive efficiency drops significantly whenever they leave their home floor.
They rely on a deliberate, slow pace that naturally keeps games close and within reach for the opponent.

IU Indianapolis has become a very tough out at home this season under their current system.
They focus on high-pressure defense and winning the physical battle on the boards.

The Jaguars rank near the top of the Horizon League in offensive rebounding rate.
Those extra possessions are huge when you are catching more than two buckets at home.

Northern Kentucky struggles to defend the perimeter when they are forced into late-clock rotations.
IUI has the shooters to punish them if the Norse collapse too hard on the drive.

The Norse are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against conference opponents.
They often find ways to win these matchups, but they rarely blow teams out in this environment.

IU Indianapolis is currently 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games when catching points.
They have the grit to turn this into a physical, low-scoring grind that favors the underdog.

NKUs free throw shooting has been a major liability in tight road games all year.
That makes it very dangerous to lay 5.5 points with a team that can't close the door at the line.

The Jaguars will use their bench depth to keep the defensive pressure high for forty minutes.
Expect a tight finish that stays within one or two possessions until the final horn.

The value is clearly on the home dog in a classic conference trap spot.
IUI is playing with far too much confidence right now to be faded at this number.

Bet IU Indianapolis +5.5 (-115).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Kennesaw State -165

Kennesaw State is a different beast when they play at the Convocation Center.
They bring an intense energy that most conference opponents struggle to match on the road.

The Owls play at one of the fastest tempos in the country and force teams to speed up.
Middle Tennessee prefers a slow, half-court game and hates being forced into a track meet.

The Blue Raiders have struggled significantly with ball security in their recent road trips.
They are coughing it up nearly 15 times per game when playing away from their home floor.

Kennesaw State thrives on these mistakes and ranks elite in points off turnovers.
The Owls are healthy and have their full starting rotation available for this matchup.

Middle Tennessee is currently thin in their backcourt rotation due to a couple of nagging injuries.
This lack of depth will be exposed late in the game when Kennesaws pace starts to wear them down.

The Owls effective field goal percentage jumps nearly six points when they play in their own gym.
They shoot the three-pointer with much higher confidence and success in front of their home fans.

Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games as a road underdog.
They simply don't have the offensive firepower to keep up if the Owls start hitting from the perimeter.

Kennesaw State is 9-2 straight up in their last 11 home games and rarely beats themselves at home.
The moneyline price is reasonable here because the Owls are clearly the more efficient offensive unit.

Expect Kennesaw State to dominate the transition game and win the rebounding battle tonight.
They have the better shooters and the home court advantage needed to get the job done.

I like the Kennesaw State ML (-165).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Indiana State +170

Indiana State is being significantly undervalued playing on their home floor tonight. The Sycamores have found a massive rhythm at the Hulman Center, winning four of their last five home games straight up.

Murray State is coming off a grueling road stretch and has looked sluggish in the second half of recent games. Their defensive rotations have slowed down, and that is a major problem against this Indiana State offense.

The Sycamores love to push the pace and rank near the top of the conference in transition points. They want to turn this game into a high-speed track meet that Murray State simply is not built to handle.

Indiana State is especially lethal from beyond the arc when playing in their own gym. They are shooting nearly 39% from three-point range at home this season compared to a much lower average on the road.

Murray States perimeter defense has been a glaring weakness over the last two weeks. They are allowing opponents to shoot over 37% from deep during this recent stretch of conference play.

The Racers also struggle with ball security when they are forced to play outside of their preferred slow tempo. If Indiana State can dictate the speed of this game early, Murray State will start racking up the turnovers.

Indiana State currently ranks in the top tier of the Missouri Valley in assist-to-turnover ratio. They value every possession and rarely give away easy points through sloppy ball handling.

The betting market is putting far too much weight on Murray States name brand and overall record. On the road, the Racers are a much more vulnerable squad that has struggled to cover as a favorite.

We are getting a great price on a home dog that matches up perfectly with a tired road favorite. The Sycamores have the shooting and the home-court energy to pull off the outright upset tonight.

I like the Indiana State ML (+170).

1* Free Pick on Lindenwood -110

Lindenwood is the clear play in this OVC matchup.
The Lions are a much more disciplined team when they play in their own building.
They have won four of their last five at home while covering the number in all five.
UT Martin relies heavily on a high-tempo offense that often gets sloppy on the road.
The Skyhawks are currently averaging 15 turnovers per game in conference road matchups.
Lindenwoods defense thrives on those mistakes by turning them into easy transition points.
The Lions do a great job of protecting the paint and forcing teams into contested jumpers.
UT Martins three-point percentage drops significantly when they leave their home floor.
They are shooting just 31% from deep on the road compared to 37% at home.
Lindenwood also has a massive advantage at the charity stripe tonight.
They get to the free-throw line at one of the highest rates in the OVC when playing at Hyland Arena.
The Skyhawks tend to foul frequently when they get tired in the second half of road games.
Lindenwood is coming off four days of rest and will have the fresher legs in the final ten minutes.
The Lions have been dominant on the defensive glass lately, limiting second-chance opportunities.
UT Martin will struggle to find a rhythm against a defense that forces them into half-court sets.
This is a classic spot where the home teams efficiency outweighs the visitors raw talent.
Everything points to the Lions controlling the pace and grinding out a win.

Bet Lindenwood ML (-110).

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5* NO BRAINER on Western Illinois +6

Western Illinois is being undervalued at home in this OVC matchup.

Arkansas-Little Rock is the flashier team but they struggle with consistency on the road.

The Trojans have failed to cover the spread in three of their last five games away from home.

Western Illinois plays one of the slowest tempos in the entire conference.

They force opponents into long possessions and heavily contested jumpers.

When you slow the game down this much, 6.5 points is a massive cushion.

The Leathernecks are elite at crashing the offensive glass on their home floor.

They currently rank near the top of the OVC in second-chance scoring opportunities.

Little Rock relies heavily on three-point shooting to stretch their leads.

Those outside shots rarely fall at the same high clip in a gym like Western Hall.

The Trojans also have a habit of fouling when they cannot dictate the pace.

Western Illinois should spend plenty of time at the free-throw line tonight.

Those easy points at the stripe will help keep this game within a possession or two.

Little Rock is coming off a high-intensity win and could be sleepwalking in this spot.

The Leathernecks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog.

The home court advantage in Macomb is real and the market is not accounting for it.

Expect a low-scoring grind that keeps the underdog well within this number.

I like the Western Illinois +6.5 (-110)

5* NO BRAINER on Blazers -7

Portland is in a massive spot to exploit a Utah defense that is currently the worst in the league.
The Jazz are surrendering a staggering 126 points per game and have shown zero interest in stopping the ball lately.

Utah is also dealing with major availability issues that gut their rotation on both ends.
Star guard Keyonte George is out with an ankle sprain, and primary rim protector Walker Kessler remains sidelined with a shoulder injury.

Without Georges scoring and Kesslers presence in the paint, the Jazz lack the depth to keep up with a surging Blazers offense.
Portland enters this game with high confidence after torching Philadelphia for 135 points on Monday night.

Deni Avdija has emerged as a legitimate primary option for the Blazers, averaging 25.5 points per game and feasting on weak perimeter defenders.
He and a healthy Scoot Henderson should have a field day against a Utah backcourt that lacks any real defensive stoppers.

The motivation gap in this matchup is wide.
Portland is fighting for a Western Conference play-in spot while the 17-37 Jazz are clearly focused on the upcoming draft lottery.

This is the final game before the All-Star break for both squads.
Rebuilding teams often "pack it in" early during these getaway games, especially when they are already double-digit games under .500.

The Blazers have the offensive efficiency to turn this into a blowout by the third quarter.
I expect them to dominate the glass and win the transition battle against a depleted Jazz roster.

I like the Blazers -7.5 (-110)