5* NO BRAINER on Hawks +5

Atlanta is catching too many points in a divisional matchup with massive playoff implications.

These two teams are separated by just a half-game in the Eastern Conference standings as they fight for play-in positioning.

The Hawks are coming off a tough loss to Minnesota but have been one of the best road bets in the league all season.

They carry a strong 17-12 record against the spread when playing away from home.

Charlotte is entering this game with major depth issues as both Coby White and Liam McNeeley have been ruled out.

That loss of backcourt scoring puts a heavy burden on LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller to play nearly the entire game.

Atlanta is dealing with their own injuries including Trae Young being sidelined, but their offensive system remains efficient.

They lead the Eastern Conference in 30-assist games and focus heavily on ball movement and transition scoring.

Quin Snyders group plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA which naturally keeps games close for underdogs.

The Hawks are 9-5 against the spread this year when they are catching five points or more.

Charlotte just saw their nine-game win streak snapped and they have struggled to contain high-tempo offenses recently.

Atlantas ability to share the ball and run will exploit the Hornets perimeter defense late in the fourth quarter.

This should be a back-and-forth track meet that comes down to just a few late possessions.

Grab the points with a road team that historically thrives in this specific underdog role.

I like the Hawks +5 (-105)

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Providence +170

Providence is catching a disrespectful price here as a road underdog.
The Friars have the defensive identity to shut down a limited Seton Hall offense.

They currently rank in the top tier of the Big East in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Kim English has his squad locked in on the perimeter and forcing contested looks.

Seton Hall lives at the free-throw line, but Providence rarely bails teams out with cheap fouls.
The Friars excel at protecting the paint and forcing teams to beat them with jump shots.

Seton Hall has struggled with consistency from three-point range throughout conference play.
That is a recipe for disaster against a team that cleans up the defensive glass as well as Providence.

The Friars are limiting opponents to just one shot per possession with elite rebounding numbers.
They have the size in the frontcourt to negate Seton Hall's second-chance opportunities.

On the other end, the Providence offense is finally clicking at the right time.
They have seen a significant jump in their effective field goal percentage over their last few games.

Their backcourt is doing a much better job of taking care of the basketball and avoiding live-ball turnovers.
Seton Halls defense is aggressive, but they often over-extend and give up open looks from the corner.

The Pirates have also shown signs of hitting a wall after a heavy schedule over the last ten days.
Providence is the fresher team and has the depth to maintain high intensity for all forty minutes.

The Friars have already proven they can win tough games in hostile environments this season.
This is a prime spot for an outright win against a Seton Hall team that struggles when they can't dictate the pace.

I expect Providence to control the tempo and win a physical, low-scoring battle.
The value on the moneyline is too high to pass up given the defensive mismatch.

I like the Providence ML (+170).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Stanford -2

Stanford has the clear advantage on the perimeter in this matchup. Their offensive system is clicking, ranking inside the top 50 nationally for effective field goal percentage.

Boston College hasn't shown the defensive discipline to stop high-volume three-point teams lately. The Eagles are giving up way too many open looks from the corners and late rotations.

The Cardinal protect the basketball better than almost anyone else in the ACC. They aren't going to gift Boston College easy transition points or "pick-six" buckets off live-ball turnovers.

This short spread is a bargain considering the efficiency gap between these two programs. Stanford is simply the more consistent team on both ends of the floor right now.

The Eagles rely heavily on getting to the free-throw line to keep their offense moving. Stanford plays a disciplined brand of defense and rarely puts opponents in the bonus early in either half.

Stanford has also been a road warrior this month, covering the spread in four of their last five games away from home. They haven't let the cross-country travel affect their shooting rhythm.

The Cardinal have a significant edge on the defensive glass. They limit teams to one shot per possession, which kills the momentum for an inconsistent BC offense that needs second-chance points.

Look for Stanford to exploit the lack of rim protection in the Eagles' frontcourt. They will use high ball screens to force BC into mismatches they simply cannot handle.

The depth of the Cardinal bench will be the factor that puts this game away in the final ten minutes. They can stay fresh while the BC starters start to lose their legs.

I like the Stanford -2 (-115).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on VCU -12

VCU is currently the most physical team in the Atlantic 10 and they are peaking at the right time.
They enter this matchup having covered the spread in four of their last five road games.

La Salle is reeling and lacks the backcourt depth to survive against this high-pressure defense.
The Explorers rank near the bottom of the country in turnover rate and that is a recipe for disaster tonight.

VCU is elite at turning steals into quick transition points at the other end of the floor.
The Rams are also shooting the ball with a ton of confidence from the perimeter.

They boast an effective field goal percentage that dwarfs what La Salle produces on a nightly basis.
The Explorers struggle to defend the three-point line and consistently give up open looks to quality shooters.

On the glass, VCU has a significant size advantage that should lead to a heavy dose of second-chance points.
La Salle is one of the worst rebounding teams in the conference and lacks the length to compete in the paint.

The Explorers have failed to cover in six of their last eight games as a home underdog.
VCU is 9-2 straight up in their last 11 meetings with La Salle and most of those wins were blowouts.

The styles simply do not mesh well for the Explorers here.
La Salle wants to slow the game down but they cannot handle the Rams' defensive length and speed.

The Rams are deep enough to maintain their intensity for the full 40 minutes without wearing down.
This is a significant mismatch in terms of both coaching and raw athleticism on the court.

VCU will dictate the tempo from the opening tip and should have this game put away by the under-eight timeout.
The double-digit spread looks high but it is not high enough for a matchup this lopsided.

I like the VCU -12 (-110)

1* Free Pick on Florida Atlantic -170

Florida Atlantic is simply the better basketball team in this matchup. Rice doesn't have the athletes to keep up with the Owls for forty minutes.

The Owls have a massive edge in offensive efficiency. They rank in the top twenty nationally in effective field goal percentage.

Rice is struggling on the other end of the floor. The Owls (Rice) rank near the bottom of the AAC in defensive rating and struggle to close out on shooters.

FAU has been excellent on the road lately. They have covered the spread in four of their last five games away from home.

Rice is coming off a physical, high-possession game last Saturday. They looked gassed in the second half and have a thin rotation.

FAU has the deeper bench and can stay fresh while Rice's starters wear down. The backcourt play is the biggest mismatch here.

FAU's guards protect the ball and rarely commit live-ball turnovers. Rice relies on opponent mistakes to get easy buckets, but they won't get them tonight.

The Owls (FAU) shoot nearly 39% from beyond the arc as a unit. Rice allows far too many open looks from the corner.

This is a "business trip" for an FAU team looking to lock up a high seed in the conference tournament. They won't let a sub-.500 team play spoiler.

The moneyline price is very reasonable for a team with this much of a talent gap. Take the better team and the better coaching staff.

I like the Florida Atlantic ML (-170).

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5* NO BRAINER of the Week on Tulane +1

Tulane is sitting in a great spot as a home underdog tonight.
They play a fast style that is very hard to prepare for on a short turnaround.

Temple has struggled with ball security throughout the conference schedule.
They are facing a Green Wave defense that specializes in forcing mistakes and creating chaos.

Tulane thrives in transition and gets easy buckets when teams get sloppy.
The Owls do not have the backcourt depth to handle 40 minutes of constant pressure.

Temple is also playing its second road game in four days.
Travel fatigue often hits teams hard in the second half of these mid-week conference swings.

Tulanes shooting percentages at home are significantly higher than their road averages.
They are hitting a high clip from beyond the arc in this building.

Temple relies too much on perimeter scoring but lacks the consistency to win a shootout.
If their primary guards are not efficient early, they have no way to keep pace.

The Green Wave have been excellent in this role lately.
They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog.

You are getting points with the more explosive offense on their own floor.
This line is asking the wrong team to be the favorite.

I expect Tulane to win this game outright and control the tempo from the tip.
There is no reason for them to be getting points in this matchup.

I like the Tulane +1.5.