3* HEAVY HITTER on Louisiana Tech +2

Louisiana Tech is catching points despite being the clearly superior team on both ends of the floor. The Bulldogs own one of the most suffocating defenses in the country, currently ranking second nationally in scoring defense.

They also rank fifth in the nation in field goal percentage defense. LA Tech already proved they could shut down this UTEP offense by beating the Miners by 12 points just a month ago.

The Bulldogs bring massive momentum into El Paso after three straight double-digit comeback wins. That type of toughness is exactly what you want when backing a road underdog.

UTEP is currently reeling with a 7-13 record and is stuck at the bottom of the Conference USA standings. They are dealing with a thin rotation as guard Tyreese Watson is out for the season and forward David Tubek remains questionable.

The Miners rely on transition points to survive, but LA Tech is elite at getting back and forcing teams into half-court sets. The Bulldogs have a significant edge on the glass and should dominate the second-chance scoring battle.

LA Tech has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings between these two programs. They are simply the more efficient team and should be favored even on the road.

Bet Louisiana Tech +2.5 (-115).

1* Free Pick on San Diego/Pepperdine: under 150

This 150-point total is way too high for two offenses that are currently broken. San Diego and Pepperdine are both sitting at the bottom of the West Coast Conference for a reason.

The Waves are averaging just 69.5 points per game this season. They are shooting a miserable 28.8% from three-point range as a team. You cannot expect a high-scoring affair when one side can't hit a shot from deep.

San Diego isn't much better on the road. The Toreros have lost five straight games away from home. They often see their offensive rhythm disappear when they leave their home floor.

When these two teams met earlier this month, the final score was 83-63. That game stayed under this current number by a comfortable margin. Both teams have actually regressed offensively since that meeting.

Pepperdine plays at a much slower tempo under Ed Schilling than in previous years. They want to work the shot clock and look for high-percentage looks that rarely materialize. This style keeps the possession count low and favors the Under.

Firestone Fieldhouse is also a unique, small environment that can be tough for visiting shooters to adjust to early. Expect a slow start with plenty of missed jumpers from both sides.

Neither team has the offensive depth to sustain a track meet for 40 minutes. If one team hits a scoring drought, this game has no chance of reaching the 150-point mark.

I like the Under 150 (-105).

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3* HEAVY HITTER on Duquesne -3

Duquesne is the clear side here as they return home following a massive 71-59 road win over Loyola Chicago. They are finally finding their rhythm in Atlantic 10 play and look like a different team than they did a month ago.

St. Bonaventure is heading in the complete opposite direction right now. The Bonnies are coming off a humiliating 97-62 home loss to Saint Louis and have dropped four straight games on the road.

The backcourt advantage for the Dukes is overwhelming in this matchup. Tarence Guinyard is playing like an All-Conference talent, leading the team in scoring and assists while limiting turnovers.

Jimmie Williams is providing the perfect secondary punch for Duquesne. He is coming off a career-high 10 rebounds and gives the Dukes a physical edge on the perimeter that the Bonnies simply cannot match.

Depth is a massive concern for St. Bonaventure tonight. They are dealing with a cluster of injuries to key rotation pieces like Amar'e Marshall and Xander Wedlow, leaving them thin on the bench.

It is nearly impossible to trust a defense that just allowed 97 points on their own floor. Their rotations are slow and they are currently ranked near the bottom of the league in defending the three-point line.

Duquesne is much more efficient at UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse where they shoot the ball with high confidence. They will exploit a Bonnies team that has shown very little fight away from home this month.

This line is far too low given the current trajectory of these two programs. Take the team with the healthy stars and the home-court advantage to win this by double digits.

I like the Duquesne -3.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Illinois State +3

Illinois State is catching too many points in a game they can win outright.
The Redbirds have been a cash cow lately, covering the spread in six of their last seven games as an underdog.

Murray State is struggling to find any rhythm on the offensive end right now.
The Racers are shooting under 42 percent from the floor over their last three games.

Illinois State hangs its hat on a tough, physical interior defense.
They rank near the top of the Missouri Valley in defensive effective field goal percentage.

Murray State relies heavily on the three-pointer to win, but the shots aren't falling.
They are hitting just 31 percent from deep in home games throughout this month.

The Redbirds control the tempo and force teams into a half-court grind.
This slow pace limits total possessions and makes every point on the spread more valuable.

Murray State is a miserable 4-9 against the spread when favored at home this season.
They simply do not have the scoring punch to pull away from a disciplined defensive team.

Illinois State also holds a significant advantage on the boards.
They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the conference.

Those second-chance opportunities will be the difference in a tight conference battle.
The Racers are coming off a flat performance and haven't shown they can cover this number.

Both teams are well-rested after playing their last games on Saturday.
This favors the underdog, as Illinois State has the legs to keep their defensive intensity high for 40 minutes.

Expect the Redbirds to keep this within a single bucket until the final buzzer sounds.
There is a massive lack of scoring punch for the home team right now.

I like the Illinois State +3.5.

5* NO BRAINER on Xavier +7

Seven points is far too many to give a disciplined Xavier team in this spot.
Seton Hall plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country and thrives on defensive grinds.

In a low-possession game, every point is magnified and covering a spread this large is a tall task.
Xavier brings a much more balanced offensive attack to the floor tonight.

The Musketeers rank significantly higher in effective field goal percentage and three-point accuracy.
Seton Halls offense often goes through long droughts where they struggle to find consistent scoring.

They lack the elite shot-makers needed to pull away from a quality conference opponent.
Xavier is also excellent at protecting the rim and won't allow Seton Hall easy looks in the paint.

The Musketeers have been road warriors lately and have covered in four of their last five away games.
They also have a major advantage at the free-throw line where they rank near the top of the Big East.

That is a critical factor for a road underdog looking to keep a game within the number late.
Seton Hall is coming off a high-intensity game this past Saturday and could be in a letdown spot.

The Pirates bench is thin and foul trouble could quickly become a major issue against Xaviers aggressive guards.
Xavier has the veteran leadership to handle the hostile environment and stay composed during Seton Hall runs.

The data suggests this game will be a possession-by-possession battle decided in the final minute.
Grabbing seven points with the better shooting team is the sharp play in a rivalry match.

I like the Xavier +7

5* NO BRAINER on Cavs -135

The Lakers are hitting a wall right now. They are in the middle of a grueling eight-game road trip and this stop in Cleveland is a major trap spot.

Los Angeles played a high-intensity game in Chicago on Monday night. This is their fourth road game in six days and the constant travel is starting to drain their defensive energy.

The biggest factor tonight is the absence of Anthony Davis. He is officially out with a hand injury, leaving the Lakers without any real rim protection against a top-five offense.

Cleveland is dealing with its own depth issues, as both Darius Garland and Evan Mobley are currently sidelined. However, the Cavs have been dominant at home by leaning heavily on Donovan Mitchell.

Mitchell is one of the hottest scorers in the league right now. He just dropped 27 points in a single half against Orlando and is attacking the paint with zero fear.

Without Davis to contest shots at the rim, Mitchell and Jarrett Allen will dominate the interior. The Lakers simply do not have the size left in their rotation to match Cleveland's physicality.

Luka Doncic and LeBron James provide plenty of star power for Los Angeles, but they look exhausted. The Lakers' bench is thin and has been outscored in three straight games on this trip.

Cleveland currently ranks fourth in the league in scoring and moves the ball better than almost anyone. They will push the tempo to test the Lakers' heavy legs from the opening tip.

The Cavs are nearly unbeatable at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse this season. They have covered the spread in 14 of their 19 games as home favorites.

Expect Cleveland to pull away late when the Lakers' starters run out of gas. The price is right on the home team to win this one outright.

Bet Cavs ML (-135).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Wyndham Clark -105

Wyndham Clark is sitting at a bargain price in this opening-round matchup. Getting a major champion at nearly even money against a less experienced opponent is a clear edge.

This tournament is being played at Torrey Pines, which is one of the most demanding tests on the PGA Tour. The South Course rewards pure power and elite long-iron play.

Clark excels in these specific conditions. His strokes gained off-the-tee numbers remain near the top of the category, which is vital for navigating these long par 4s.

Jake Knapp has plenty of distance, but his consistency isn't on the same level as Clark's. Knapp tends to struggle when his driving accuracy dips on these narrow, penal fairways.

Clark also holds a significant advantage in strokes gained approach. He is far more precise with his proximity to the hole from 175 yards and out.

That specific yardage is where this match will be won or lost. Most of the second shots this week will come from that deep range into firm greens.

Clark is also a world-class scrambler when he does happen to miss a green. He has the strength to gouge the ball out of the thick coastal rough and save par.

Knapps short game can be a liability when the pressure ramps up. He doesn't have the same level of touch around the greens when the conditions get difficult.

Clark has much more experience in these marquee pairings. He won't be rattled by a slow start or a couple of early bogeys on a tough layout.

The market is giving way too much credit to Knapps recent flashes of brilliance. Clark is the more polished professional with both a higher floor and a higher ceiling.

Take the proven winner over the high-variance youngster. Clarks ball-striking and major-winning pedigree will be the difference-maker in this spot.

I like the Wyndham Clark ML (-105).

5* NO BRAINER on Mackenzie Hughes +100

Mackenzie Hughes is the much more reliable option in this head-to-head matchup.
He brings a world-class short game that allows him to grind out scores on tough tracks.

Hughes consistently ranks as one of the best putters on the PGA Tour.
His ability to save par from the thick rough gives him a high floor that Valimaki lacks.

Sami Valimaki has plenty of raw power but is far too volatile for this price.
He tends to spray the ball off the tee, and this course penalizes errant drives heavily.

Valimaki struggles with bogey avoidance when he isn't hitting fairways.
Hughes is a grinder who stays patient and lets his opponents make the mistakes.

The Canadian has a proven track record during the West Coast swing.
He thrives on these specific green complexes where local knowledge and touch matter most.

Valimaki is still searching for consistency in these high-pressure tournament rounds.
The statistical edge in Strokes Gained: Around the Green is heavily in favor of Hughes.

Even money is a gift for the more polished and experienced player.
I expect Hughes to play a clean round while Valimaki finds too much trouble.

I like the Mackenzie Hughes ML (+100)