3* HEAVY HITTER on Texas-Arlington +1

Texas-Arlington is simply the better team on both ends of the floor. They have a massive physical edge in the paint that Utah Tech cannot match.

The Trailblazers are one of the weakest rebounding teams in the conference. They give up far too many second-chance points to teams that play with this much aggression.

UTA comes into this matchup with four full days of rest. They won big last Saturday and had plenty of time to get their legs back for this trip to St. George.

Utah Tech relies way too much on the three-point shot to keep games close. They have been cold lately and are shooting under 31% from deep over their last five games.

The Mavericks have an elite perimeter defense that specializes in taking away the arc. They rank in the top 50 nationally in three-point percentage defense.

Arlington also does a much better job of getting to the free-throw line. In a game with a spread this tight, free points at the stripe are usually the difference.

Utah Tech has failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home games. The betting market is still giving them too much credit for home-court advantage.

UTA is 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit win. They know how to carry momentum from one game to the next.

The Mavericks are the more efficient team in transition. They force turnovers at a high rate and turn those mistakes into easy points.

Utah Tech struggles to take care of the ball against heavy pressure. Arlington will speed them up and force them into bad decisions all night long.

The wrong team is favored in this spot. Arlington has the defense and the rebounding to win this game comfortably on the road.

I like the Texas-Arlington +1.5.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Fairfield +105

Fairfield is catching a plus-money price tonight in a matchup where they have the clear talent advantage.
The market is giving too much credit to Sacred Heart for their recent five-game winning streak.

Sacred Heart has momentum, but their overall record of 10-14 shows their true ceiling.
Fairfield is the more complete squad with a 14-10 record and better efficiency numbers on both ends of the floor.

The biggest edge in this game is on the glass.
Stags forward Brandon Benjamin is a monster in the paint, averaging 10.4 rebounds per contest.

Sacred Heart lacks the interior size to keep him off the offensive boards.
Second-chance points will be the deciding factor in a game with a spread this thin.

Anquan Hill is a solid scorer for the Pioneers, but he lacks support in the frontcourt.
Fairfields physical style of play will wear down the Pioneers by the middle of the second half.

Braden Sparks is the best guard on the floor and will dictate the tempo.
He is averaging 17.2 points per game and is a proven closer in tight conference games.

Fairfields backcourt is more experienced and less prone to turnovers in a hostile road environment.
They have shown they can handle pressure and execute their half-court sets under duress.

Sacred Heart swept the head-to-head meetings last season, so the revenge factor is massive for the Stags.
Fairfield is fully healthy and has far more depth in the rotation to sustain a high level of play for 40 minutes.

The Pioneers have feasted on the bottom of the conference during this recent run.
They are in for a reality check against a disciplined Stags defense that ranks near the top of the MAAC.

Take the better overall team while they are sitting at a plus-money price.
The Stags are too balanced to drop another game to their local rival.

I like the Fairfield ML (+105).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on UAB -2

UAB is the play here because they protect the rock better than almost anyone in the country.
The Blazers rank eighth nationally in turnovers per game and lead the American in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Memphis is the complete opposite when it comes to discipline on the offensive end.
The Tigers are coughing up the ball nearly 14 times per game and struggle to find a consistent flow in the half-court.

Bartow Arena is a house of horrors for visiting teams and will be rocking for this rivalry game.
UAB is coming in with massive momentum after a successful road trip that has them sitting at 14-8 on the season.

The Blazers own a significant edge on the glass where they rank 14th in the country in total rebounds.
They are especially dangerous on the offensive end and generate easy second-chance points through physical play in the paint.

Memphis is currently shorthanded with Curtis Givens and Abdul Hakim dealing with recent injuries and illness.
The Tigers just dropped a disappointing home game to Tulane and look like a team searching for an identity on the defensive end.

Even with Joo Das Chagas out for the season, UABs physical style and fast-break efficiency should wear down the Tigers.
The Blazers average over 15 fast-break points per game and will exploit every live-ball turnover Memphis commits.

Penny Hardaways squad has high-end talent but they haven't shown the mental toughness to win these tough road spots lately.
Andy Kennedy has this UAB group playing fundamentally sound basketball and they have had four days of rest to prepare for this matchup.

Expect the Blazers to control the pace and limit the extra possessions Memphis needs to pull the road upset.
This number is short enough to lay with the more reliable team playing in front of a sellout home crowd.

I like the UAB -2.5.

1* Free Pick on UC-Santa Barbara -3

UC-Santa Barbara is the much more efficient team in this matchup. They shoot the ball better and protect the rim at a much higher level.

UC-Davis relies too heavily on their guards to create late in the shot clock. That doesn't work against a Gauchos defense that ranks near the top of the conference in effective field goal percentage.

The Gauchos are coming into this game with significant momentum. They have covered the spread in four of their last five road games.

UC-Davis has struggled to defend the paint all season. They lack the size to match up with the Santa Barbara frontcourt.

The Gauchos will dominate the glass tonight. This creates second-chance points that a thin Davis rotation simply cannot handle.

Santa Barbara is also the better team at the charity stripe. They hit their free throws when it counts to close out games on the road.

The Aggies turn the ball over too often to keep pace. UCSB is disciplined and rarely beats themselves with sloppy play.

This line is short because Davis is playing at home. However, the talent gap between these two rosters is much wider than three and a half points.

Santa Barbara is the more rested team and has stayed focused during this road trip. They have a clear edge in offensive rating and overall shooting depth.

Davis has lost three of their last four games straight up. They are struggling to find a rhythm on the offensive end right now.

Expect the Gauchos to control the tempo from the opening tip. They will use their size advantage to wear down the Aggies over forty minutes.

I like the UC-Santa Barbara -3.5.

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5* NO BRAINER on California Baptist -10

California Baptist is unbeatable at the Fowler Events Center. They enter this matchup with a perfect 11-0 record on their home floor.

Tarleton State is heading the opposite direction. The Texans have lost six straight games and look completely lost on the offensive end.

They shot just 34 percent from the field in their last outing. You cannot expect to win on the road in the WAC with that kind of shooting.

CBU has the most explosive player on the court in Dominique Daniels Jr. He leads a high-powered unit that just put up 87 points in their last win.

The Lancers are on a six-game winning streak and playing their best basketball of the season. There is also a major revenge factor at play here.

Tarleton stole an overtime win against the Lancers back in early January. CBU has been waiting for this rematch to prove that result was a fluke.

The Lancers are a different beast at home where they have never lost to the Texans. Tarleton is just 3-7 on the road and recently got blown out by 28 points against Utah Valley.

The Texans turn the ball over nearly 15 times per game. That is a recipe for disaster against a CBU team that excels at scoring in transition.

Tarleton lacks the depth to keep up if this game turns into a track meet. CBU has more weapons and a much higher ceiling on the offensive end.

The Lancers are winning by an average of nearly 10 points at home this year. This line is too low for a team with this much momentum and home-court dominance.

I expect a double-digit victory as the Texans continue their late-season slide.

I like the California Baptist -10 (-110)

5* NO BRAINER on Bulls +9

Toronto is in a brutal scheduling spot for this Thursday night matchup. They just played a physically demanding game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday.

Coming back less than 24 hours later to face a rested Chicago team is a massive hurdle for this rotation. The Raptors are already thin in the frontcourt with starting center Jakob Poeltl sidelined by a back injury.

Without Poeltl, Toronto has no real answer for Nikola Vucevic in the paint. Vucevic has been a dominant force on the glass lately and should feast against a tired Raptors interior defense.

The Bulls are dealing with some roster flux after trading Coby White and Mike Conley on Wednesday. While they might be short-handed, these "transition" games often produce high-energy efforts from hungry young players like Ayo Dosunmu and Isaac Okoro.

Chicago has also dominated this head-to-head series recently. They have won and covered in their last four meetings against Toronto.

Torontos defensive efficiency historically takes a massive hit on the second leg of back-to-backs. They simply don't have the legs to maintain a high-pressure scheme for 48 minutes right now.

The 9.5-point spread is far too wide for a team that played last night and is missing its defensive anchor. Chicago has enough scoring punch with Vucevic and Collin Sexton to keep this game within a couple of possessions.

I expect a sluggish start from the Raptors and a motivated effort from a Bulls team looking to prove they can win post-trade. Take the points with the rested underdog.

I like the Bulls +9.5.

5* NO BRAINER on Loyola-Chicago +9

Loyola-Chicago is catching way too many points in this A-10 clash. The Ramblers have a gritty defensive identity that travels well on the road.

Davidson is tough at home, but they lack the explosive offense to cover a nearly double-digit spread. The Wildcats rely heavily on the three-ball and floor spacing to generate their points.

Loyola ranks among the best in the conference at defending the perimeter and limiting high-quality looks. They force opponents into long possessions and difficult shots late in the shot clock.

This slow-tempo style limits the total number of possessions for both teams. In a low-possession game, a 9.5-point head start is massive for the underdog.

The Ramblers are also very disciplined when it comes to the glass. They do not give up many second-chance points, which is vital for staying competitive on the road.

Loyola comes into this game with a rest advantage after having a full week to prepare. Davidson had a high-intensity battle on Tuesday night and could be looking at a letdown spot here.

The Ramblers have been great for bettors lately, going 4-1 ATS in their last five away games. They have the veteran leadership in the backcourt to handle the crowd and stay composed.

Loyola takes care of the ball and avoids the empty possessions that lead to easy transition buckets. If they can keep this game in the half-court, they will be within striking distance all night.

Davidson likely wins the game, but it should be a one or two-possession fight until the final minute. This line is inflated because of Davidson's home-court reputation.

Take the points with a Ramblers team that knows how to mud it up and keep things close.

Bet Loyola-Chicago +9.5 (-108).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Pistons +2

Detroit is the best team in the Eastern Conference right now and getting points at home is a gift.
The Pistons are sitting on a 37-12 record and have turned Little Caesars Arena into a fortress this season.

Vegas is overadjusting for the schedule here because Detroit played on Thursday night.
Don't let the back-to-back situation scare you off the better team.

The Pistons have been managing Cade Cunninghams wrist and Tobias Harriss hip specifically to keep them fresh for big spots like this.
Even if their stars see slightly fewer minutes, this roster is far deeper than what New York is bringing to the table.

The Knicks are limping into this matchup with a decimated rotation.
Losing glue guys like Josh Hart and Miles McBride to ankle injuries has completely gutted their bench depth.

New York is forced to over-rely on Jalen Brunson to create everything, which doesn't work against this Detroit defense.
The Pistons rank near the top of the league in defensive rating and hold opponents to a suffocating 51.5% effective field goal percentage.

We already saw what happens when these two teams match up at full strength.
Detroit embarrassed the Knicks in a 31-point blowout just last month, and the physical matchup hasn't changed.

Karl-Anthony Towns will have a massive headache dealing with Jalen Duren and the Pistons' physicality in the paint.
With Mitchell Robinson also limited by ankle soreness, the Knicks are going to lose the battle on the glass.

The Pistons are the more efficient team on both ends of the floor and they play with a much higher level of confidence.
Taking the top seed in the East as a home underdog against a shorthanded rival is the only sharp move here.

I like the Pistons +2.

5* NO BRAINER of the Week on Pacers -117

Giannis Antetokounmpo is still sidelined with a calf strain and that is a death sentence for this Milwaukee team right now. The Bucks are struggling to find any identity on the floor without their superstar and have looked lost on both ends of the court since late January.

Their defense has completely cratered without their anchor in the middle to contest shots and protect the rim. Milwaukee is currently slogging through a brutal stretch of the schedule and this matchup marks their third game in four nights.

That is a massive problem for the fifth-oldest roster in the league that is already missing depth pieces like Taurean Prince. The Pacers are coming into this game with two full days of rest and have the fresh legs needed to push a relentless tempo.

Indiana is one of the fastest teams in the league and they will look to exhaust this tired Milwaukee rotation early and often. Pascal Siakam has taken over the lead scoring role with Tyrese Haliburton out for the season and he is the best player on the floor tonight.

Siakam is averaging nearly 24 points per game and should have his way against a thin Bucks frontcourt that is also monitoring a hip injury to Bobby Portis. The Pacers also upgraded their interior presence at the trade deadline by adding Ivica Zubac to shore up their rebounding.

Milwaukee ranks near the bottom of the league in both scoring efficiency and rebounding over their last several games. They simply do not have the defensive rating or the bench depth to keep up with Indiana's offensive pace for four quarters.

The Pacers have a significant edge in eFG% and transition scoring which will be the deciding factor in a high-possession game. Back the rested road team to outrun a reeling Bucks squad that has no answer for the absence of the MVP.

I like the Pacers ML (-117).