5* NO BRAINER on Raptors -10

Utah is in a total tailspin and this is a brutal spot for them to turn it around.

The Jazz have lost five straight games and failed to cover the spread in every single one of those contests.

Their defense is virtually non-existent right now, giving up a staggering 127 points per game over their recent stretch.

They travel to Toronto without their primary rim protector, Walker Kessler, which opens up the lane for a physical Raptors offense.

Utah is also dealing with a host of other injuries, as Keyonte George and Jusuf Nurkic are both questionable for tonights tip-off.

Toronto returns home after a tough road loss where Brandon Ingram looked dominant with a 35-point performance.

Scottie Barnes continues to impact the game on both ends of the floor, and the Raptors top-ten defense is primed to exploit a Jazz team that turns the ball over 15 times a night.

The Jazz are just 1-9 in their last ten games and have shown zero resistance against high-efficiency scoring teams.

Toronto has been dominant at Scotiabank Arena against sub-.500 opponents, while Utah currently holds the worst net rating in the league over the last two weeks.

With the Jazz lacking interior depth and defensive discipline, the Raptors should have no trouble controlling the paint and the glass.

Utahs travel from Salt Lake City to Toronto adds another layer of fatigue for a group that looks like it has already checked out.

Even with a double-digit spread, the Jazz are losing by an average of 14 points during this skid and wont keep pace here.

Bet Raptors -10 (-115).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Fairfield +110

Fairfield is catching Quinnipiac at the perfect time and represents massive value as a home underdog.
The Stags are a completely different animal at the Leo D. Mahoney Arena where they boast a dominant 9-2 record this season.

Quinnipiac comes into this matchup reeling after a tough loss to Marist and has struggled to find consistency on the road.
The Bobcats have dropped half of their twelve away games and now face a Fairfield squad riding a three-game winning streak.

The Stags have found their rhythm offensively and are shooting the ball with much more confidence during this recent stretch.
They won the last head-to-head meeting in this building by nine points and have the defensive discipline to frustrate the Quinnipiac backcourt.

Quinnipiac relies heavily on high-volume shooting, but they allowed Marist to shoot nearly 53 percent from the floor in their last outing.
The Bobcats haven't shown they can fix those defensive rotations on a short turnaround, especially against a team that takes care of the ball as well as Fairfield.

Fairfield ranks near the top of the MAAC in turnover percentage and rarely gives away free possessions.
The Stags are also excellent at limiting second-chance opportunities and rank high in the conference in defensive rebounding.

In a game that should be tight in the final minutes, having the better free-throw shooters and the home crowd behind you is the difference-maker.
Fairfield hits at a 72 percent clip from the stripe and has the veteran poise to close out close conference games.

The Bobcats are being overvalued here based on their season-long stats rather than their actual recent form.
Fairfield is playing with more urgency as they climb the standings and the plus-money price is a gift.

I like the Fairfield ML (+110).

1* Free Pick on Northern Kentucky +5

Northern Kentucky getting 5.5 points is a gift in a game that should go down to the wire.
This is a classic Horizon League battle between two programs that know each others schemes inside and out.

Oakland is coming off a hard-fought game this past Friday and now faces a quick turnaround.
NKU also played Friday night, but their physical style of play is built for these grind-it-out Sunday afternoon spots.

The Norse have one of the most disciplined defenses in the conference.
They specialize in forcing opponents into long possessions and difficult shots late in the shot clock.

Oakland relies heavily on their unique matchup zone defense to frustrate shooters.
The problem for the Golden Grizzlies is that the Norse have seen this look for years and know how to attack the gaps.

NKU prioritizes ball security and rarely gives away free possessions through sloppy turnovers.
They currently rank near the top of the league in defensive effective field goal percentage.

The Norse contest everything at the rim and do a great job of limiting second-chance points.
Oaklands offense often gets stagnant when they aren't able to get out and run in transition.

In a half-court game, Northern Kentucky has the defensive tools to keep this within a single possession.
The Golden Grizzlies have struggled in this role lately, going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite.

Northern Kentucky has been a road warrior recently, covering the spread in four of their last five trips away from home.
This rivalry is historically tight and is usually decided by three points or fewer.

Taking nearly two full possessions with the underdog is the sharp move in a low-scoring environment.
Expect a defensive struggle where the Norse have a real chance to win this game outright.

Bet Northern Kentucky +5.5 (-108).

I have two premium NCAA-B picks available for today's slate that met my strict criteria for high-value opportunities. You can view these plays and the rest of my daily betting card by visiting my handicapper profile.

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5* NO BRAINER on Green Bay +165

Green Bay is being completely overlooked at home in this spot.
Getting +165 on the moneyline for a gritty Horizon League home team is a massive overlay.

Wright State loves to run but they refuse to play defense.
The Raiders are sitting near the bottom of the country in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed.

They give up way too many easy looks at the rim and struggle to close out on shooters.
Green Bay is a much tougher team to beat when playing on their home floor.

The Phoenix specialize in slowing the game down and making every possession a grind.
Both teams played games on Friday night, but the quick turnaround favors the home team.

Wright State relies on high-volume scoring to mask their defensive holes.
That strategy often fails on the road when legs get heavy and jumpers stop falling.

Green Bay excels at taking care of the basketball and limiting turnovers.
They won't gift Wright State the easy transition points they need to build a lead.

The Phoenix should dominate the defensive glass and limit the Raiders to one shot per trip.
This home team has the discipline to frustrate a Wright State squad that gets impatient in half-court sets.

The Raiders have been a shaky bet as a road favorite all season long.
They lack the defensive stops required to cover numbers or pull away in hostile environments.

Green Bay is playing its most cohesive basketball of the year right now.
This is a classic league spot where the underdog is actually the side with the tactical advantage.

The Phoenix have the size to match up inside and the patience to exploit Wright States gambling defense.
Take the plus money with the home dog in a game they should probably be favored in.

I like the Green Bay ML (+165).

5* NO BRAINER on Pelicans +7

Catching seven and a half points with a team that has already beaten this opponent once this season is a massive gift.
The Pelicans might be struggling with a 13-38 straight-up record, but they are a cover machine at 28-22 against the spread.
The market is still pricing New Orleans based on their win-loss record instead of their actual ability to stay competitive.

Zion Williamson missed the first matchup between these two teams and his presence on the interior is a nightmare for Charlotte.
The Hornets are currently without center Mason Plumlee, leaving them with almost no rim protection to stop Zion's downhill attacks.
New Orleans won the first meeting 116-112 without their star, and now they get him back against a depleted frontcourt.

Charlotte has found some rhythm with a three-game home win streak, but that has only served to inflate this line past where it should be.
Brandon Miller has been scoring at a high clip for the Hornets, but New Orleans has the wing depth with Saddiq Bey and Trey Murphy to make him work for every bucket.
The Pelicans are coming off a dominant road win in Philadelphia on Saturday night and are finally playing with some real confidence.

They rank in the top ten in offensive rebounding and will generate plenty of second-chance points against a smaller Charlotte unit.
New Orleans covers at a 56 percent clip because they keep grinding until the final whistle regardless of the score.
The Hornets are 13th in defensive rating, but they struggle against physical teams that can dominate the glass like the Pelicans.

I expect a tight game that comes down to the final few possessions at the Spectrum Center.
The Pelicans match up perfectly here and have the size advantage needed to control the tempo of the game.

I like the Pelicans +7.5 (-115)