4* VEGAS INSIDER on Montana State +1

The market is giving Weber State too much credit for playing at home in this spot. Montana State is the more efficient team on both ends of the floor right now.

The Bobcats rank significantly higher in effective field goal percentage over their last five games. They are shooting the lights out from deep and forcing teams to scramble on the perimeter.

Weber State has struggled to close out on shooters lately. They are allowing opponents to shoot over 38 percent from beyond the arc in conference play.

Montana State does a much better job of taking care of the basketball. They rank near the top of the Big Sky in turnover margin and rarely give away empty possessions.

Weber State relies heavily on getting to the free-throw line to stay in games. Montana State plays a disciplined style of defense that avoids cheap fouls and keeps opponents off the stripe.

The Bobcats have also been a covering machine on the road lately. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games away from home when the spread is three points or fewer.

Weber State is coming off a grueling road trip and might have some heavy legs in the second half. Montana State has had four days to prep for this specific matchup and should look like the fresher team.

The wrong team is favored here based on recent shooting splits and defensive efficiency. I expect the Bobcats to win this one outright behind their superior backcourt play.

I like the Montana State +1.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Campbell +1

Campbell is getting points at home in a game they should probably be favored to win. The Fighting Camels have been a completely different team in Buies Creek this season.

William & Mary enters this matchup struggling to find any rhythm on the road. The Tribe has dropped five of their last six away from home and often struggles with the travel.

The defensive metrics favor Campbell heavily in this spot. They rank near the top of the CAA in effective field goal percentage defense when playing on their home floor.

William & Mary relies far too much on the three-point shot to stay competitive. When those shots don't fall on the road, they lack the post presence to keep up.

Campbell does a great job of forcing teams into long, grinding possessions. They will frustrate the Tribe by taking away the fast break and forcing them to execute in the half-court.

The rebounding battle is another huge edge for the Camels tonight. William & Mary is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the conference and gives up too many boards.

Campbell will feast on second-chance opportunities and put-backs. They are also much more disciplined when it comes to taking care of the basketball.

The Tribe ranks in the bottom third of the country in turnover rate. Campbell will turn those mistakes into easy transition buckets to pull away.

This is a clear revenge spot for Campbell after losing a heartbreaker earlier in the season. They have had this date circled and have the rest advantage playing at home.

The home-court advantage is worth more than the 1.5 points we are getting on the spread. Trust the better defensive team to get the stop when it matters most.

I like the Campbell +1.5 (-115).

3* HEAVY HITTER on CS Sacramento +120

Sacramento State is a different animal when they play at home. They have been nearly unbeatable in their own building this season, posting a 9-2 record while the rest of their schedule has been a disaster.

Eastern Washington is the exact opposite. The Eagles have dropped 13 of their 16 games away from home and consistently lose their shooting touch in hostile environments.

The Hornets are coming off a rough road trip, but they return to Sacramento with a massive chip on their shoulder. They lost to the Eagles earlier this season in Cheney and this is the ultimate revenge spot to even the score.

Prophet Johnson is the engine for this Hornets offense. He is averaging over 18 points per game and has the ability to take over when things get tight in the second half.

Sacramento State is dealing with a major injury to big man Jeremiah Cherry, but they have adjusted by playing a faster, guard-heavy style. This higher pace has actually improved their offensive eFG% over the last two weeks.

Eastern Washingtons defense is a major liability on the road. They are allowing over 80 points per game in away contests and their defensive rotations have been slow to react to perimeter threats.

The Hornets win the battle on the boards consistently in their home gym. They rank near the top of the Big Sky in defensive rebounding percentage, which will limit second-chance looks for a high-volume Eagles offense.

Getting Sacramento State at plus money in a building where they rarely lose is excellent value. The oddsmakers are overreacting to their recent road losses and ignoring their home-court dominance.

I like the CS Sacramento ML (+120).

1* Free Pick on Portland State -175

Portland State is a completely different beast when they play at the Viking Pavilion. They already proved they are the superior squad by taking down Idaho on the road back on January 24. Now they get the Vandals on their own floor where they play with significantly more defensive intensity.

Idaho is walking into a trap after a massive 99-69 blowout win over Idaho State last Saturday. That performance was a total outlier for a team that usually struggles with consistency. Expect a major offensive regression tonight as they face a much tougher Portland State unit.

The Vikings are 17-7 on the season and have dominated this head-to-head series lately. They have won eight of the last ten meetings against Idaho. Portland State knows exactly how to pressure the Vandal guards and disrupt their offensive flow.

Idaho has been poor on the road recently with tough losses at Montana and Montana State. Their shooting efficiency drops off a cliff when they leave Moscow. Portland State will use their physical frontcourt to control the glass and limit second-chance points.

Keyon Kensie Jr. is coming off a monster 16-rebound game and provides a massive edge in the paint. Terri Miller Jr. is also in a groove after dropping 22 points in his last outing. The Vikings have too many scoring options for an Idaho defense that allows nearly 74 points per game.

The Vikings are the more disciplined team and rarely beat themselves with unforced turnovers. Take the more reliable team playing at home in a clear revenge spot for the Vandals that won't materialize. Trust the history and the current form of the home favorite.

Bet Portland State ML (-175).

I have eight premium releases available today featuring top-rated action in the NBA, NCAA-B, and PGA. These selections are backed by my most thorough research and represent my strongest positions on the board. My full card of premium picks is available now on my profile page.

View Premium Picks

5* NO BRAINER of the Week on Lindenwood +150

Lindenwood is the clear play as a road underdog tonight.
Tennessee State is getting way too much credit from the oddsmakers in this spot.

The Tigers have struggled with consistency all month and their offense is prone to long scoring droughts.
Lindenwood thrives in these low-possession games where they can grind out a win.

The Lions have been a covering machine lately and have won two of their last three outright as dogs.
Tennessee State ranks near the bottom of the conference in turnover percentage.

They give the ball away too often to be laying points against a disciplined team.
Lindenwood takes care of the ball and forces opponents into tough, contested jumpers.

The Lions also have a significant edge at the charity stripe.
They rank in the top tier of the OVC in free-throw shooting percentage.

In a game expected to be tight late, that is the difference-maker for a road upset.
Tennessee State is also dealing with some nagging injuries in the frontcourt that will limit their rotation tonight.

They are vulnerable on the glass and Lindenwood is opportunistic with second-chance points.
The Tigers have failed to cover in four of their last five home games when favored by four points or more.

Lindenwood is playing with a lot of confidence and the revenge factor is there from their narrow loss in the last meeting.
This is a classic spot where the better-coached team is catching a generous plus-money price.

I expect the Lions to dictate the tempo from the opening tip and frustrate the Tigers in the half-court.
The value is all on the visitors in a game that should be priced much closer to a pick'em.

I like the Lindenwood ML (+150).

5* NO BRAINER on Suns +7

The San Antonio Spurs are having a massive season at 38-16, but this spread is inflated for a return from the All-Star break. Both teams have been off for nearly a week, and that long layoff usually leads to heavy legs and inconsistent shooting in the first game back.

Giving a talented Phoenix squad 7.5 points in a "reset" game is a huge mistake by the oddsmakers. The Suns have actually won both head-to-head meetings with San Antonio this season, proving they match up perfectly with the Spurs' length.

Phoenix is getting Devin Booker and Jalen Green back at full strength after they both navigated minor injuries before the break. Booker is averaging over 25 points per game and is exactly the kind of veteran scorer who thrives when the pace gets sloppy.

San Antonio might be without their top perimeter defender, Stephon Castle, who is a game-time decision with a pelvic contusion. If Castle is limited or out, the Spurs lose the one guy capable of slowing down the Suns' backcourt rotation.

The Spurs have been dominant with a six-game win streak, but they haven't been reliable in this specific spot. San Antonio has failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against Pacific Division opponents.

San Antonio is also just 8-9 against the spread this season when favored by 7.5 points or more. Phoenix has shown great resilience on the road, covering in eight straight away games following a straight-up loss.

The Suns have enough perimeter firepower with Booker, Green, and Dillon Brooks to keep this game tight until the final buzzer. Expect some rust from both sides, which favors the underdog in a high-variance environment.

I like the Suns +7.5 (-105)