5* NO BRAINER on Charlotte +9

Charlotte is catching way too many points in a matchup where they have the schematic advantage to keep things tight. The 49ers are 7-3 in American Conference play and currently sit tied for second in the league standings.

Memphis has been the definition of mediocre this season with an 11-11 record and major issues sustaining momentum. The Tigers are coming off an emotional win over UAB, but that game saw Sincere Parker explode for a 40-point outlier performance that is unlikely to repeat today.

Charlotte plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire country and excels at grinding games down to a halt. This deliberate style limits the number of possessions and makes it incredibly difficult for a favorite like Memphis to pull away by double digits.

The 49ers shoot 36 percent from three-point range in conference play and have the perimeter shooters to exploit a Memphis defense that can be undisciplined. Dezayne Mingo and Ben Bradford lead a backcourt that is comfortable operating in high-pressure environments on the road.

Memphis is still dealing with depth issues as Ashton Hardaway and Hasan Abdul Hakim remain questionable with health concerns. Charlotte is also monitoring Frank Oguche and David Gomez, but the core of their rotation remains intact and ready for this spot.

The Niners are coming off a loss to Wichita State, which provides plenty of motivation to get back on track against a big-name opponent. Expect a low-possession, defensive battle that stays competitive until the final whistle.

The 9.5-point cushion is a massive gift for a team that has been far more reliable than Memphis all winter.

I like the Charlotte +9.5 (-112)

1* Free Pick on Seahawks -4

Seattles defensive front is the clear difference in this matchup. They are winning the battle in the trenches and getting to the quarterback with just four rushers.

The Patriots' offensive line is a major weak spot right now. They are dealing with multiple injuries in the middle of the line and it is killing their offensive success rate.

New England is near the bottom of the league in pressure rate allowed over the last month. Seattles pass rush ranks top five in sacks during that same stretch.

The Seahawks' offense is hitting its stride at the perfect time. Their EPA per play has climbed because they are staying out of third-and-long situations and staying ahead of the chains.

Seattles receivers are elite at beating man coverage. New England plays a lot of man, but they do not have the speed in the secondary to shadow these deep threats for four quarters.

The Patriots' run game has hit a wall lately. They are averaging under 3.6 yards per carry over their last four games and cannot stay balanced.

When New England becomes one-dimensional, they struggle to move the ball. Seattles secondary is too disciplined to let a limited passing game beat them over the top.

The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road. This team plays with a lot of confidence away from home and won't be bothered by the environment in Foxborough.

New England is 2-7 ATS as a home underdog this season. They have failed to stay competitive when facing teams with a clear talent advantage like Seattle.

The Seahawks also have a big edge in the kicking game and special teams. Expect them to win the field position battle and keep the Patriots pinned deep in their own territory.

Seattle will control the clock and pull away in the second half. The Patriots' defense will wear down after being on the field for too many snaps.

I like the Seahawks -4.5 (-105).

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5* NO BRAINER on Seahawks/Patriots: under 46

This total is sitting way too high for a matchup between two units that want to grind the clock.

The Seahawks have transformed into a defensive powerhouse that specializes in taking away the deep ball. They rank in the top five in defensive EPA and rarely give up explosive plays over the top.

New England plays a similarly disciplined style that focuses on limiting possessions and winning the field position battle. The Patriots offense is built on a heavy rushing attack that keeps the clock moving and the opposing quarterback on the sideline.

Expect a lot of three-yard runs and short completions that keep the chains moving but do not result in quick scores. Super Bowl Sunday often brings out a conservative approach from coaches who are terrified of an early turnover.

The first quarter will likely be a feeling-out process with both teams settling for field goals rather than pushing the envelope. Seattles pass rush has been dominant over the final month of the season and will make life miserable in the pocket.

The Patriots' secondary is healthy and excels at disguising coverages to bait quarterbacks into check-downs. When you get two teams this physical in the trenches, the game naturally trends toward a low-scoring slugfest.

Both coaching staffs prefer a ball-control rhythm that limits the total number of snaps in the game. The pressure of the big stage usually leads to tighter execution and fewer risks taken down the field.

The Under has been a consistent winner for both of these teams when facing elite defensive competition this year. Everything about this matchup points to a game played in the teens or low twenties.

I like the Under 46.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Xavier/St. John's: under 161

The total for this Big East battle is sitting way too high at 161. These teams are deep into the conference grind where every possession carries extra weight.

February basketball is about defense and half-court execution rather than transition scoring. You will not see the same track-meet style that these teams featured earlier in the season.

St. Johns has been locking teams down at home throughout the last few weeks. They use their length to force opponents into long, low-percentage possessions late in the shot clock.

Xavier has shown a clear trend of slowing the tempo when they travel. They want to value the ball and limit turnovers to keep the crowd out of the game.

The Musketeers have seen the Under hit in four of their last five games away from home. Their shooting percentages usually take a dip when they are not playing in their home gym.

St. John's is currently prioritizing rebounding and interior defense to stay competitive in the standings. They are not going to let Xavier get easy looks or second-chance points tonight.

Both teams are fighting for tournament seeding and will not be taking many risks with early-clock shots. Expect a lot of physical play in the paint that kills the offensive rhythm for both sides.

The history between these two programs in New York favors a lower-scoring affair. The defensive intensity always ramps up when these conference rivals meet on a Monday night.

We are looking at a game that likely lands in the low-to-mid 70s for both sides. That gives us plenty of breathing room with a total that has been inflated by the books.

Bet Under 161 (-110).

5* NO BRAINER on Drake -2

Drake is the clear play here despite their recent three-game slide. They are back home at the Knapp Center where they have historically owned this head-to-head matchup.

The Bulldogs have won eight straight games against Valparaiso. They have also walked away with a victory in nine of the last ten meetings overall.

Valparaiso is a completely different team when they leave their home floor. They have struggled mightily as a visitor and carry a dismal 2-8 road record this season.

The Beacons are coming off an emotional overtime win against Evansville on February 6. Now they have to travel to face a hungry Drake team that is desperate to stop the bleeding.

Drakes offense is much more efficient and reliable than Valpo's. The Bulldogs are averaging over 77 points per game while shooting 45% from the field.

Jalen Quinn is the best player on the court in this matchup. He averages 19.4 points per game and will be a major problem for a Valparaiso defense that lacks lateral quickness.

Valparaiso struggles to find consistent scoring and shoots just 41% as a team. They simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep pace in a hostile environment like Des Moines.

Drake takes elite care of the basketball and only turns it over 10 times per game. Those extra possessions are the difference-maker when the spread is this short.

Valparaiso has several rotation players like Isaiah Barnes and Nick Lombardi listed as questionable for tonight. Their lack of depth will be exposed in the second half of this game.

Drake has been giving up too many points lately, but Valpo isn't the team to exploit that weakness. Expect the Bulldogs to control the tempo and win this game by double digits.

I like the Drake -2.5 (-110).

5* NO BRAINER on Magic -9

The biggest factor in this game is the continued absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks have been a mess without their superstar, posting a dismal 6-14 record when he is out.

He remains sidelined with a calf strain and is not expected back until later this month.

Milwaukees offense has tanked to 27th in the league without his scoring and presence on the floor.

Orlando is a brutal matchup for a team missing its main engine.

The Magic are 17-9 at home this year and play a very physical brand of basketball.

They are sitting in the 7th spot in the East and looking to keep their playoff positioning.

Milwaukee has won three straight, but those wins came against the bottom-feeders of the conference.

The Bucks are just 9-17 on the road and have struggled to cover against winning teams away from home.

Even with Franz Wagner listed as questionable, the Magic have the scoring depth to cover this large number.

Desmond Bane and Paolo Banchero are both healthy and will exploit a Milwaukee defense that lacks its anchor.

The Bucks rank near the bottom of the league in opponent points in the paint when Giannis sits.

This spread is big, but the Bucks net rating falls off a cliff when they travel without their best player.

Expect Orlando to control the tempo and pull away in the final two quarters.

Milwaukee simply does not have the bench scoring to keep pace with a deep Magic rotation.

Bet Magic -9.5 (-110).