4* VEGAS INSIDER on Nuggets +100

Denver at home is the best bet on the board tonight.
Getting the Nuggets at even money in their own building is a rare gift you have to take.

The altitude in Denver is a massive factor for a Cleveland team at the end of a long road trip.
The Cavs played a physical game in Utah two nights ago and now have to deal with the thin air.

Denvers offense is clicking right now and ranks in the top five for eFG% over their last six games.
The Nuggets move the ball better than anyone and currently lead the league in assists per game at home.

Cleveland has two great interior defenders, but they haven't faced a playmaker like Nikola Jokic lately.
Jokic pulls defenders out of the paint, which opens up cutting lanes and creates open looks for the Nuggets' shooters.

The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing as a short favorite or at pick-em odds.
Clevelands perimeter defense has regressed recently, giving up high shooting percentages from beyond the arc.

The Cavs look a bit gassed and their offensive rating has dipped significantly on this road swing.
Denver also holds a major advantage on the glass, ranking near the top of the league in rebound percentage.

Second-chance points will be the difference-maker in a game that should stay close through the first half.
The Nuggets have had two full days of rest and preparation for this specific matchup.

Expect the Denver starters to outwork a tired Cleveland unit in the second half when the fatigue sets in.
The Nuggets have a clear edge in depth and late-game execution in their home arena.

Take the value with the home team in a prime spot against an exhausted opponent.
I like the Nuggets ML (+100).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Xavier/St. John's: under 161

The total for this Big East battle is sitting way too high at 161. These teams are deep into the conference grind where every possession carries extra weight.

February basketball is about defense and half-court execution rather than transition scoring. You will not see the same track-meet style that these teams featured earlier in the season.

St. Johns has been locking teams down at home throughout the last few weeks. They use their length to force opponents into long, low-percentage possessions late in the shot clock.

Xavier has shown a clear trend of slowing the tempo when they travel. They want to value the ball and limit turnovers to keep the crowd out of the game.

The Musketeers have seen the Under hit in four of their last five games away from home. Their shooting percentages usually take a dip when they are not playing in their home gym.

St. John's is currently prioritizing rebounding and interior defense to stay competitive in the standings. They are not going to let Xavier get easy looks or second-chance points tonight.

Both teams are fighting for tournament seeding and will not be taking many risks with early-clock shots. Expect a lot of physical play in the paint that kills the offensive rhythm for both sides.

The history between these two programs in New York favors a lower-scoring affair. The defensive intensity always ramps up when these conference rivals meet on a Monday night.

We are looking at a game that likely lands in the low-to-mid 70s for both sides. That gives us plenty of breathing room with a total that has been inflated by the books.

Bet Under 161 (-110).

1* Free Pick on Arizona -2

Arizona is laying points in one of the toughest environments in college basketball for a reason. They have the offensive depth to overwhelm a Kansas team that is struggling to find its identity.

The Wildcats currently rank in the top ten nationally in effective field goal percentage. They are shooting the lights out from deep and forcing teams to pick their poison.

Kansas has been vulnerable on the perimeter lately. They gave up too many open looks in their last two games against high-volume shooting teams.

Arizona plays at a lightning-fast pace that wears opponents down by the under-eight timeout. Kansas prefers a more controlled game but they won't be able to dictate the tempo here.

Both teams are coming off games this past Saturday. Fatigue shouldn't be a massive factor, but Arizonas bench is much deeper right now.

The Jayhawks are missing an elite rim protector this season. Arizonas bigs are mobile and will beat the Kansas frontcourt to the spot in transition.

The Wildcats are also elite at crashing the offensive glass. They create second-chance opportunities that break the spirit of home crowds.

Kansas is just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games. They are being overvalued because of the name on the jersey and the history of Allen Fieldhouse.

Arizona has the talent and the coaching to go into Lawrence and dictate the terms. This spread is short because books are scared of the home-court hype, but the numbers favor the visitors.

Trust the superior offense to pull away in the final four minutes.

I like the Arizona -2.5.

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5* NO BRAINER on Drake -2

Drake is the clear play here despite their recent three-game slide. They are back home at the Knapp Center where they have historically owned this head-to-head matchup.

The Bulldogs have won eight straight games against Valparaiso. They have also walked away with a victory in nine of the last ten meetings overall.

Valparaiso is a completely different team when they leave their home floor. They have struggled mightily as a visitor and carry a dismal 2-8 road record this season.

The Beacons are coming off an emotional overtime win against Evansville on February 6. Now they have to travel to face a hungry Drake team that is desperate to stop the bleeding.

Drakes offense is much more efficient and reliable than Valpo's. The Bulldogs are averaging over 77 points per game while shooting 45% from the field.

Jalen Quinn is the best player on the court in this matchup. He averages 19.4 points per game and will be a major problem for a Valparaiso defense that lacks lateral quickness.

Valparaiso struggles to find consistent scoring and shoots just 41% as a team. They simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep pace in a hostile environment like Des Moines.

Drake takes elite care of the basketball and only turns it over 10 times per game. Those extra possessions are the difference-maker when the spread is this short.

Valparaiso has several rotation players like Isaiah Barnes and Nick Lombardi listed as questionable for tonight. Their lack of depth will be exposed in the second half of this game.

Drake has been giving up too many points lately, but Valpo isn't the team to exploit that weakness. Expect the Bulldogs to control the tempo and win this game by double digits.

I like the Drake -2.5 (-110).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Hawks +6

The Timberwolves are in a tough spot here playing their second game in less than 24 hours. They just finished a physical battle with the Clippers on Sunday afternoon and now have to turn around and host a rested Hawks team on Monday night.

Atlanta comes into this matchup with two full days of rest. That fresh-leg advantage is huge for a team that likes to push the pace and force opponents to sprint back in transition.

Since the trade for CJ McCollum, the Hawks' offense has looked more balanced and less predictable. They are no longer relying on a single high-usage player to create every shot, making them much harder to scout on short notice.

Jalen Johnson is becoming a nightmare for opposing defenses in the open court. His ability to grab a rebound and start the break will put immense pressure on a Minnesota frontcourt that will likely be feeling the fatigue of a back-to-back.

The Wolves have been a shaky bet lately when they are expected to win big. They are just 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games when favored by five points or more at the Target Center.

Minnesotas elite defensive rating usually takes a dip on zero days of rest. Perimeter rotations slow down, and that should lead to plenty of open looks from beyond the arc for Atlanta's shooters.

Atlanta is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games as a road underdog. They have been very competitive in this role lately and have the scoring depth to keep this within a couple of possessions.

Getting more than six points with the fresher team is the only way to play this one. Expect the Hawks to keep this close right until the final whistle.

Bet Hawks +6.5 (-105).

5* NO BRAINER on Magic -9

The biggest factor in this game is the continued absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks have been a mess without their superstar, posting a dismal 6-14 record when he is out.

He remains sidelined with a calf strain and is not expected back until later this month.

Milwaukees offense has tanked to 27th in the league without his scoring and presence on the floor.

Orlando is a brutal matchup for a team missing its main engine.

The Magic are 17-9 at home this year and play a very physical brand of basketball.

They are sitting in the 7th spot in the East and looking to keep their playoff positioning.

Milwaukee has won three straight, but those wins came against the bottom-feeders of the conference.

The Bucks are just 9-17 on the road and have struggled to cover against winning teams away from home.

Even with Franz Wagner listed as questionable, the Magic have the scoring depth to cover this large number.

Desmond Bane and Paolo Banchero are both healthy and will exploit a Milwaukee defense that lacks its anchor.

The Bucks rank near the bottom of the league in opponent points in the paint when Giannis sits.

This spread is big, but the Bucks net rating falls off a cliff when they travel without their best player.

Expect Orlando to control the tempo and pull away in the final two quarters.

Milwaukee simply does not have the bench scoring to keep pace with a deep Magic rotation.

Bet Magic -9.5 (-110).