5* NO BRAINER on American/National: under 37

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Heat -4½

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on UL - Lafayette +3

Louisiana is catching points at home and that is a massive mistake by the oddsmakers.

The Ragin' Cajuns are a completely different team when they play inside the Cajundome.

Georgia Southern comes into this matchup after a grueling road game on Thursday night.

They are playing their second game in three days and the fatigue will show in the second half.

Louisiana excels at pushing the pace and forcing opponents into high-speed track meets.

Georgia Southerns defensive rotations tend to slow down significantly when their legs are heavy.

The Cajuns rank near the top of the Sun Belt in effective field goal percentage at home.

They shoot the three-pointer with much more confidence and consistency in their own gym.

Louisiana also holds a significant edge in the turnover department.

They force a high volume of mistakes and transition those steals into easy buckets.

Georgia Southern has struggled with ball security and composure in loud road environments all season.

The rebounding battle also favors the home side in this spot.

Louisiana is aggressive on the offensive glass and creates far too many second-chance opportunities.

This is a clear revenge spot for the Cajuns after dropping a close game to the Eagles earlier this year.

Conference home dogs getting more than a bucket are a consistent moneymaker for professional bettors.

Louisiana has the depth and the perimeter shooting to win this game outright.

I like the UL - Lafayette +3.5 (-110)

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Portland State -170

Portland State is a different animal at the Viking Pavilion this season. The Vikings are currently undefeated on their home floor and have turned this arena into a house of horrors for Big Sky visitors.

This is a prime bounce-back spot for Portland State after they dropped a narrow 64-60 decision to Montana on Thursday night. That loss was their first in conference play, and they will be desperate to protect their standing at the top of the league.

Montana State enters this matchup trending in the opposite direction after a disappointing loss to Sacramento State. The Bobcats have struggled with consistency on the road and are dealing with a major injury to key scorer Davian Brown.

Brown left the lineup with an injury last week and his absence leaves a massive void in the Montana State backcourt. Without his production, the Bobcats struggled to find offensive rhythm in their last outing and now face a much tougher defense.

Portland State ranks in the top 100 nationally in offensive efficiency and shoots nearly 48% as a team. They are led by Jaylin Henderson, who is averaging nearly 20 points per game and excels at getting to the rim.

The Vikings also hold a significant edge on the glass with a +6.1 rebounding margin. They consistently win the battle for second-chance points, which is a death sentence for road underdogs in this conference.

Montana States defense has been vulnerable lately, surrendering 83 points to a Sacramento State team that usually struggles to score. If they can't stop the ball on the perimeter, Portland State will run away with this early.

Expect the Vikings to use their superior depth and home-court energy to overwhelm a shorthanded Bobcats squad. The moneyline price is reasonable for a team that has been nearly flawless in this building all year.

I like the Portland State ML (-170).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on UCLA -170

Indiana heading to Pauley Pavilion is a nightmare spot for the Hoosiers. That cross-country flight from Bloomington to Los Angeles is a massive tax on a college roster.

The Bruins own one of the best home-court advantages in the country right now. They are giving up less than 65 points per game in this building this season.

Mick Cronin has this Bruins defense playing like a brick wall. They currently rank in the top 20 nationally in effective field goal percentage defense.

Indiana struggles when they cannot get easy buckets in transition. The Bruins excel at forcing teams into slow half-court sets and deep shot clocks.

The Hoosiers have been sloppy with the ball on the road all year. UCLAs backcourt is great at generating steals and winning the turnover margin without gambling.

Look at the rest situation for the Hoosiers in this matchup. They are playing their third game in seven days with a heavy travel load on their legs.

UCLA is coming off four days of rest and will be the much fresher team. The Bruins are 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games as home favorites.

Indiana's perimeter shooting hasn't traveled well in conference play. They are hitting under 31% from deep in true road environments this season.

UCLA will dominate the glass and limit Indiana to one shot per possession. The Bruins are simply too physical for the Hoosiers to handle in the paint for forty minutes.

Expect the Bruins to control the tempo and keep this game in the 60s. Indiana does not have the discipline to win a grind-it-out game in this environment.

The Bruins' ability to convert at the free-throw line late will seal this. Indiana's road fatigue will show up in the final ten minutes of the second half.

I like the UCLA ML (-170)

4* VEGAS INSIDER on SIU-Edwardsville/Southern Indiana: under 133

SIU-Edwardsville and Southern Indiana are set for a physical rematch that has the Under written all over it.
The last time these two OVC rivals met on New Years Day, they combined for a measly 114 points in a 59-55 defensive slugfest.

SIUE plays a deliberate brand of basketball that emphasizes defensive rotations and long possessions.
They are one of the most disciplined defensive units in the conference, surrendering just 65.4 points per game on the season.

Southern Indiana is struggling to find any offensive rhythm and currently shoots a lackluster 38.8% from the floor.
The Screaming Eagles are prone to long scoring droughts and lack the playmakers to consistently break down a set defense.

Both teams are playing their second game in three days after a heavy slate on Thursday night.
That short turnaround usually leads to tired legs, which translates to short-range misses and poor three-point shooting.

SIUE is perfectly comfortable walking the ball up the court and using the full shot clock to find a look.
They rank near the bottom of the country in adjusted tempo and rarely look to push the pace in transition.

In their first meeting, USI was held to a brutal 34% shooting clip and struggled to generate anything clean at the rim.
SIUEs defensive interior is too physical for a USI offense that ranks in the bottom tier for effective field goal percentage.

This total of 133.5 is giving way too much credit to two teams that prioritize stopping the ball over scoring it.
As conference play grinds into late January, these matchups tend to get even more physical and slower.

Expect a lot of contested jumpers and a clock that moves fast with limited stoppages.
Everything points to this game landing comfortably in the low 120s.

Bet Under 133.5 (-110).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Brown PK

Brown is the right side in this Ivy League battle.
This is the second game of the classic Friday-Saturday back-to-back.

Dartmouth spent last night on the road and had to travel again to reach Providence.
Brown stayed at home and didn't have to deal with a bus ride after their Friday game.

The travel fatigue usually shows up in the second half of these Saturday matchups.
Brown has a major edge when it comes to defensive efficiency.

They rank much higher in effective field goal percentage defense than Dartmouth.
The Big Green struggle to score when they can't get easy looks at the rim.

Browns length on the perimeter will make life difficult for Dartmouth's shooters.
The Bears also dominate the boards in this matchup.

Dartmouth gives up too many offensive rebounds and second-chance points.
Those extra possessions are killers for a road team on short rest.

Brown plays with a faster tempo that wears down tired legs.
Dartmouth wants to slow it down, but they won't be able to dictate the pace tonight.

The Big Green have been a poor bet on the road all season.
They lack the depth to keep up with Browns rotation in a high-speed game.

Brown is the more physical team and will win the battle in the paint.
The Bears ability to get to the free-throw line will be the deciding factor late.

Expect Brown to pull away as Dartmouth's legs give out in the final ten minutes.
The home court is worth more than a pick-em line here.

I like the Brown PK (-110).

3* HEAVY HITTER on South Florida/Temple: under 156

This total is way too high for a Saturday night conference grind in Philadelphia. These two teams do not have the offensive firepower to push a number this big into the late 150s.

South Florida has struggled to find any consistent rhythm on the road lately. Their shooting percentages drop significantly whenever they leave Tampa.

Temples defense remains the strongest part of their identity under Adam Fisher. They excel at running teams off the three-point line and forcing contested mid-range jumpers.

The Owls prefer to control the tempo when playing at the Liacouras Center. They currently rank in the bottom half of the AAC in adjusted pace and look to milk the shot clock.

South Florida is shooting just 31% from beyond the arc over their last four road contests. You simply cannot reach a total of 156.5 without a massive barrage of three-pointers.

Both squads are coming off at least three days of rest. Extra rest in conference play usually leads to more disciplined defensive rotations and fewer transition buckets.

The head-to-head history between these two programs points directly to a low-scoring affair. The Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the Bulls and the Owls.

Temples offense is notorious for hitting long scoring droughts in the second half. They often go four or five minutes at a time without a made field goal.

We are looking at a game that should be played in the low 70s or even the high 60s. This line is inflated by at least six or seven points based on the current form of both offenses.

I like the Under 156.5 (-105).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Auburn +5

Auburn is catching way too many points against a Tennessee team that isn't defending the paint like they used to. The Volunteers currently rank 11th in the SEC in two-point field goal percentage allowed during conference play.

The Tigers enter this matchup on a four-game win streak and boast the highest defensive efficiency rating in the league over the last month. They also lead the SEC in free-throw attempt rate, which spells trouble for a Tennessee defense that fouls at a high frequency.

Tennessee is coming off a grueling overtime win at Georgia on Wednesday where their main contributors logged massive minutes. Star guard Ja'Kobi Gillespie played 41 minutes in that contest and may struggle to maintain his defensive intensity against Auburns fresh legs.

The Volunteers are also nursing multiple injuries with rotation pieces Jaylen Carey and Troy Henderson both listed as probable but likely limited. Auburn has their own depth issues with Abdul Bashir and Emeka Opurum out, but head coach Steven Pearl has shown he can adjust his rotation on the fly.

Keyshawn Hall is the best player on the floor right now and should be the difference maker after dropping 31 points against Texas earlier this week. His ability to create his own shot late in the shot clock will be vital in a tough road environment.

Auburn travels well because they don't rely on high-variance three-point shooting to stay in games. They attack the rim and get to the charity stripe, which is the exact formula needed to keep this game within a possession.

In a high-intensity rivalry where the defensive metrics actually favor the underdog, getting 5.5 points is a gift. Expect a back-and-forth battle that is decided in the final minute.

I like the Auburn +5.5 (-110).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Davidson +124

Davidson is catching a generous price as a road dog in this matchup.
The Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season right now and have covered the spread in four of their last five road games.

Richmond is struggling to find any consistency on the offensive end lately.
The Spiders rely way too much on the three-point shot to stay competitive against quality opponents.

Davidson ranks in the top 30 nationally in three-point defense this year.
They excel at running shooters off the line and forcing teams into contested mid-range looks.

Richmond does not have the interior size to punish Davidson inside when those outside shots stop falling.
The Wildcats are also elite at taking care of the basketball and rarely beat themselves with sloppy play.

They currently rank in the top 20 in turnover percentage and won't give Richmond easy transition points.
This game will be played at a slow, deliberate pace that favors Davidsons high-efficiency sets.

The Spiders are coming off a grueling double-overtime game this past Wednesday night.
Fatigue should be a major factor in the second half when Davidsons constant motion starts wearing them down.

Davidson already beat Richmond by double digits earlier this month.
They clearly have the defensive blueprint to shut down the Spiders' Princeton-style offense.

The Wildcats are also shooting nearly 80% from the free-throw line as a team.
That is a massive edge in a tight conference game that will likely be decided at the stripe in the final minute.

Richmond is just 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games as a home favorite.
Davidsons effective field goal percentage has spiked to 56% over their last three outings.

The Spiders have been soft on the glass lately and gave up double-digit offensive boards in their last two games.
If the Wildcats limit Richmond to one shot per possession, they will walk away with the outright road win.

I like the Davidson ML (+124)

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Old Dominion +100

Texas State is struggling to find any rhythm on the offensive end right now. They rank near the bottom of the Sun Belt in effective field goal percentage and frequently deal with long scoring droughts.

Old Dominion brings a massive physical advantage to the floor for this matchup. The Monarchs are dominating the glass and limiting second-chance points for their opponents.

This is a tough spot for a Bobcats team that relies on transition points to stay competitive. ODU plays a disciplined style that forces teams into a half-court grind.

The Monarchs have shown they can win on the road by taking care of the basketball. They rank in the top tier of the conference in turnover margin and rarely beat themselves.

Texas State played a high-energy game this past Thursday and look like a team that is running out of steam. ODU has the deeper bench and can keep fresh legs on the floor for the full 40 minutes.

The defensive metrics favor the Monarchs in almost every major category. They are holding opponents to low shooting numbers and excel at closing out on shooters.

Texas State does not have the interior presence to stop ODU from getting to the rim. The Monarchs should be able to score at will in the paint and draw plenty of fouls.

Expect Old Dominion to control the tempo from the opening tip. They are the more composed team and have shown much better execution in late-game situations.

The betting line is giving too much credit to the home-court factor here. ODU is the more talented squad on both ends of the floor and is playing with high confidence.

I like the Old Dominion ML (+100).

1* Free Pick on LSU -2

LSU is the clear side in this SEC showdown.
The Tigers have a massive rest advantage coming into Columbia today.

LSU hasn't played since their home win on Tuesday night.
South Carolina had to grind out a physical road game on Wednesday and looks gassed.

The Gamecocks have struggled to protect the rock all season.
They rank near the bottom of the conference in turnover percentage.

LSUs defense thrives on those mistakes.
The Tigers are elite at turning steals into fast-break points and easy transition buckets.

LSU also holds a big edge in shooting efficiency.
They are hitting over 38% of their shots from deep in conference play.

South Carolinas perimeter defense has been leaky lately.
They allow too many open looks to teams that move the ball well and find the extra pass.

The Gamecocks are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record.
LSU is 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and loves playing in hostile environments.

The Tigers have the better athletes and the fresher legs.
They will wear South Carolina down over the final ten minutes of the second half.

Expect LSU to control the tempo and pull away late at the free-throw line.
The line is way too low for a team with this much of a talent and rest gap.

Bet LSU -2.5.

I have 10 premium selections on the board for todays NBA and college basketball slate as I look to build on a winning 30-day stretch. My full card of high-value plays is currently available for those looking to follow my top-rated analysis.

View Premium Picks

5* NO BRAINER on Southern Utah +6

Southern Utah is catching way too many points in a matchup against a team they already dismantled earlier this month. The Thunderbirds cruised to a 74-52 victory over Abilene Christian on January 17, proving they have the defensive blueprint to neutralize the Wildcats' system.

Abilene Christian enters this game in a complete tailspin, having dropped four of their last five contests. They are struggling to find any offensive rhythm and their defensive rotations were repeatedly exposed in a home loss to Utah Tech this past Thursday.

The Wildcats rely almost exclusively on forcing turnovers to spark their transition game. Southern Utahs backcourt handles that pressure as well as anyone in the conference and limited the Wildcats to just 52 points in their first meeting.

Southern Utah also holds a clear advantage in the paint that should manifest on the boards today. They dominated the glass in the previous matchup and have the size to prevent Abilene Christian from getting the easy second-chance buckets they desperately need.

Abilene Christian has been a nightmare for bettors lately, posting a 7-10 record against the spread and failing to cover in three of their last four home games. While the Thunderbirds have struggled on the road, they have the psychological edge and the personnel to keep this within a single possession.

Expect a physical, lower-scoring battle that favors the underdog getting more than two full possessions. Abilene Christian doesn't have the shooting efficiency right now to pull away from a team that already knows how to beat them.

I like the Southern Utah +6.5 (-115)

5* NO BRAINER of the Week on Grizzlies +7

Minnesota is laying a massive number on the road for a team on the second night of a back-to-back. The Wolves just went through a physical war in Dallas on Friday night and now have to travel to Memphis with tired legs.

The health of Anthony Edwards is the biggest factor in this line. He is currently fighting through a sore hamstring and looked a step slow during the Friday win.

With veteran Mike Conley already ruled out due to back issues, the Wolves lack their primary floor general. They won't have the same offensive rhythm or late-game execution in this quick turnaround.

The Grizzlies are missing several bodies, including Ja Morant and Zach Edey, but Jaren Jackson Jr. remains an elite defensive anchor. He is one of the top rim protectors in the league and makes life miserable for teams that rely on interior scoring.

Memphis thrives in this "disrespect" spot as a home underdog. They play a gritty, slow-paced style that naturally keeps games close when the opposing team is fatigued.

The Wolves typically struggle to cover big numbers on the road in back-to-back situations. They tend to settle for long jumpers when they are gassed, and Jackson Jr. will be waiting to erase anything that comes near the rim.

A low-scoring, defensive battle is exactly what you want when you are catching 7.5 points. Minnesota's offensive efficiency takes a major hit when they play their second game in less than 24 hours.

The Grizzlies have enough length to bother a fatigued Minnesota frontcourt and win the battle on the glass. Expect a low-scoring affair where the home crowd keeps the Grizzlies within a few buckets.

I like the Grizzlies +7.5 (-110)

3* HEAVY HITTER on Fairfield +110

Fairfield is catching Quinnipiac at the perfect time and represents massive value as a home underdog.
The Stags are a completely different animal at the Leo D. Mahoney Arena where they boast a dominant 9-2 record this season.

Quinnipiac comes into this matchup reeling after a tough loss to Marist and has struggled to find consistency on the road.
The Bobcats have dropped half of their twelve away games and now face a Fairfield squad riding a three-game winning streak.

The Stags have found their rhythm offensively and are shooting the ball with much more confidence during this recent stretch.
They won the last head-to-head meeting in this building by nine points and have the defensive discipline to frustrate the Quinnipiac backcourt.

Quinnipiac relies heavily on high-volume shooting, but they allowed Marist to shoot nearly 53 percent from the floor in their last outing.
The Bobcats haven't shown they can fix those defensive rotations on a short turnaround, especially against a team that takes care of the ball as well as Fairfield.

Fairfield ranks near the top of the MAAC in turnover percentage and rarely gives away free possessions.
The Stags are also excellent at limiting second-chance opportunities and rank high in the conference in defensive rebounding.

In a game that should be tight in the final minutes, having the better free-throw shooters and the home crowd behind you is the difference-maker.
Fairfield hits at a 72 percent clip from the stripe and has the veteran poise to close out close conference games.

The Bobcats are being overvalued here based on their season-long stats rather than their actual recent form.
Fairfield is playing with more urgency as they climb the standings and the plus-money price is a gift.

I like the Fairfield ML (+110).

5* NO BRAINER on Green Bay +165

Green Bay is being completely overlooked at home in this spot.
Getting +165 on the moneyline for a gritty Horizon League home team is a massive overlay.

Wright State loves to run but they refuse to play defense.
The Raiders are sitting near the bottom of the country in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed.

They give up way too many easy looks at the rim and struggle to close out on shooters.
Green Bay is a much tougher team to beat when playing on their home floor.

The Phoenix specialize in slowing the game down and making every possession a grind.
Both teams played games on Friday night, but the quick turnaround favors the home team.

Wright State relies on high-volume scoring to mask their defensive holes.
That strategy often fails on the road when legs get heavy and jumpers stop falling.

Green Bay excels at taking care of the basketball and limiting turnovers.
They won't gift Wright State the easy transition points they need to build a lead.

The Phoenix should dominate the defensive glass and limit the Raiders to one shot per trip.
This home team has the discipline to frustrate a Wright State squad that gets impatient in half-court sets.

The Raiders have been a shaky bet as a road favorite all season long.
They lack the defensive stops required to cover numbers or pull away in hostile environments.

Green Bay is playing its most cohesive basketball of the year right now.
This is a classic league spot where the underdog is actually the side with the tactical advantage.

The Phoenix have the size to match up inside and the patience to exploit Wright States gambling defense.
Take the plus money with the home dog in a game they should probably be favored in.

I like the Green Bay ML (+165).