3* HEAVY HITTER on Tigers -140

Detroit comes into this Sunday matchup with a major health advantage over a Baltimore squad already limping through the early part of spring.

The Orioles infield is currently a patchwork unit after losing both Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg to significant injuries this month.

Holliday is sidelined with a broken hand while Westburg is dealing with a partially torn UCL, leaving a massive void in the middle of their defense.

Baltimore is forced to give heavy early-inning reps to guys like Blaze Alexander and Coby Mayo who aren't yet settled into their roles.

Detroit is in a completely different spot with a lineup that looks much closer to what we will see on Opening Day in March.

Gleyber Torres is fully cleared after his sports hernia surgery and Matt Vierling is already ramping up his activity in the outfield.

The Tigers also have much better depth on the mound today with Tarik Skubal and new addition Framber Valdez anchoring a very deep staff.

Even with Jackson Jobe and Reese Olson on the shelf, the Tigers have enough veteran arms to navigate these early three-inning stints with ease.

Baltimore is integrating a lot of new pieces like Pete Alonso, and that lack of familiarity usually shows up in early Grapefruit League road games.

Expect Detroit to take advantage of the Orioles' defensive instability and the home-field comfort of Lakeland to grab an early lead.

The Tigers regular starters should see at least two trips to the plate before the bench takes over, which is where this edge is strongest.

Detroits relief corps is also much more established right now compared to the prospects Baltimore is trying to evaluate.

I like the Tigers ML (-140).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Wright State -175

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5* NO BRAINER on Drexel +2

Drexel catching points at home is the wrong side of this line.
The Dragons are one of the toughest outs in the CAA when playing at the Daskalakis Athletic Center.

They own a massive home-court advantage that the market continues to undervalue.
Towson comes into this game after a physical road battle this past Thursday night.

The Tigers are playing their second road game in four days and the legs will be heavy.
Drexel excels at controlling the pace and forcing teams into long, late-clock possessions.

The Dragons rank near the top of the conference in defensive rebounding percentage.
They will limit the second-chance points that Towson relies on to win games.

The Tigers' offense struggles significantly when they cannot dominate the offensive glass.
Drexels effective field goal percentage defense is even better when they play at home.

They contest every perimeter shot and rarely send opponents to the free-throw line.
Towson is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record.

Drexel has covered the spread in four of their last five games as a home underdog.
The Dragons have better backcourt depth and much better ball security than the Tigers.

They avoid the live-ball turnovers that lead to easy transition buckets for the road team.
Drexel is the more disciplined squad and they are peaking at the right time of the season.

In a tight conference matchup, I trust the home defense to get the stop when it matters.
We are getting the more efficient defensive team on their own floor with a points cushion.

I like the Drexel +2.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Braves -160

The Minnesota Twins are in a total tailspin before the 2026 season even begins after losing staff ace Pablo Lopez to season-ending surgery this week.
To make matters worse, their No. 2 arm Joe Ryan was a late scratch yesterday with back tightness and will not factor into this matchup.

Minnesota is now forced to lean on unproven prospects and non-roster invitees to eat up innings against the most dangerous lineup in the National League.
The Atlanta Braves enter this home contest at CoolToday Park with their core of Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley already seeing the ball well in early action.

Atlanta has a massive depth advantage and a stable pitching rotation that does not have the same desperation as the reeling Twins.
While the Twins are scrambling to find healthy bodies for the rotation, the Braves are simply fine-tuning a roster that remains the gold standard for consistency.

Expect the Braves hitters to dominate a depleted Minnesota staff that lacks the command to challenge elite bats this early in camp.
The Twins' bullpen is also in a state of flux with roles undefined and high-leverage arms being handled with extreme caution.

Atlanta has historically played very well at their home base in North Port and they have a clear preparation edge in this spot.
The Twins are essentially playing with a depleted roster that is mentally and physically thin on the mound right now.

There is no reason to expect a Minnesota staff in crisis to hold down a stacked Atlanta lineup for nine innings.
The talent gap is just too wide and the situation is heavily slanted toward the home team in this environment.

I like the Braves ML (-160)

1* Free Pick on Red Sox -165

The Red Sox have a clear advantage playing at home today at JetBlue Park. Veterans rarely like to make the bus trip during the first week of Grapefruit League play.

Expect Boston to field a much more recognizable lineup than what we see from Toronto. The Blue Jays are likely resting several key starters or keeping them back at their own facility in Dunedin.

The Red Sox pitching staff is reported to be ahead of schedule this spring. Their top-tier starters are penciled in for the first two innings before turning it over to the high-velocity prospects.

Toronto's offense often takes time to find a rhythm in February. They had major issues hitting with runners in scoring position last season and those habits tend to stick early on.

Boston has significantly better depth in the middle infield right now. This depth prevents the late-game defensive lapses that usually lead to blown leads in spring training.

The atmosphere in Fort Myers gives the Red Sox a genuine boost even this early in the year. They want to set a high standard for the fans who traveled down to see them.

The price at -165 is telling you exactly what the books expect from these lineups. Torontos road squads in the spring are notoriously thin and lack veteran presence in the later innings.

The Red Sox are also showing better plate discipline in early camp sessions. They are not just swinging at everything, which forces young Toronto pitchers into deep counts and early exits.

I am siding with the superior pitching depth and the home-field motivation. Boston is the far more prepared team for this Sunday afternoon clash.

I like the Red Sox ML (-165).

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5* NO BRAINER on Cardinals +115

The Astros are entering this 2026 season with the same injury clouds that ruined their 2025 campaign. Their bullpen is already thin with star closer Josh Hader sidelined by bicep inflammation.

Houston is also missing depth arms like Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski as they recover from UCL surgeries. That leaves the back end of their pitching staff vulnerable in these early spring matchups.

The Cardinals come into this spot as a live underdog in a full-blown rebuild. This is the exact type of environment where you want to back the younger, hungrier team.

St. Louis is prioritizing roster battles, meaning their lineup will be filled with prospects fighting for a spot on the 26-man roster. These players treat February games like October, while established veterans on the Astros are just trying to get their timing down.

The Cardinals are expected to lean on Matthew Liberatore early. He is projected as their top starter this year and should be much more polished than the revolving door of arms Houston will throw out.

St. Louis is dealing with some absences of their own, including Lars Nootbaar and Riley OBrien, but their organization is deeper in young, healthy talent right now. They have spent the offseason clearing the decks to let these young bats fly.

This game is being played at CACTI Park in West Palm Beach, which is a shared facility. Houston has virtually zero home-field advantage here.

Getting +115 on a team with more to prove against a favorite nursing major injuries to their $95 million closer is an easy choice. The Cardinals' youth and pitching depth will be the difference in the late innings when Houston's thin bullpen is forced to eat frames.

I like the Cardinals ML (+115)

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Wolves -8

The Philadelphia 76ers are walking into a nightmare situation on Sunday night at the Target Center.

They are playing the second leg of a road back-to-back after a physical game in New Orleans on Saturday.

The Sixers are significantly shorthanded with Joel Embiid ruled out due to knee management and shin soreness.

Paul George is also unavailable for Philadelphia as he continues to serve a 25-game league suspension.

This leaves Tyrese Maxey to carry the entire offensive load against one of the league's most elite defensive units.

Minnesota enters this matchup with a massive rest advantage after staying home following their win on Friday.

The Timberwolves are fully healthy and have their entire core rotation available to dominate the interior.

Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle should bully a Philly frontcourt that lacks any real size or rim protection without Embiid.

Philadelphia has lost six of their last seven games when their star center is not on the floor.

Their offensive rating plummets when Embiid sits, and they lack the secondary scoring depth to keep pace with Minnesota.

The Timberwolves currently rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season.

Anthony Edwards is back to full strength and will have a field day against a tired 76ers perimeter defense.

Philly simply does not have the legs to track Minnesota's transition game in a back-to-back road spot.

The Wolves are fighting for a top seed in the Western Conference and cannot afford to drop a home game against a depleted roster.

Expect Minnesota to jump out to an early lead and never look back in front of their home crowd.

The spread is a bargain considering the massive talent and rest gap between these two teams right now.

Bet Wolves -8.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Cavs -129

Cleveland's interior defense is the absolute key to this matchup.
The Thunder struggle when they cannot get easy buckets in the paint or clean looks at the rim.
Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are both healthy and active today, providing the league's best rim protection.

Oklahoma City is stuck in a difficult scheduling spot for this Sunday afternoon tip-off.
They played a high-intensity game on Saturday and now have to turn around with zero days of rest.
This is their second game in less than 24 hours, which usually leads to tired legs in the second half.

Meanwhile, the Cavs have been resting in Oklahoma City since Friday night.
The rest advantage for Cleveland is massive and should be the deciding factor in the fourth quarter.
Cleveland currently ranks in the top five for defensive rating and eFG% allowed over their last ten games.

They are elite at forcing opponents into tough, contested jumpers.
The Thunder offense relies on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander getting to his spots, but Cleveland has the specialized length to disrupt him without fouling.
The Cavs also have the advantage in the backcourt with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland both confirmed in the starting lineup.

Oklahoma City is currently missing two key rotation players in the frontcourt, which severely limits their depth.
The Thunder are just 2-5 against the spread this season when playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
Cleveland has been excellent on the road lately, winning six of their last eight games away from home.

The Cavs will dominate the rebounding battle and limit any second-chance opportunities for a fatigued Thunder squad.
They will control the tempo and force Oklahoma City to play a slow, half-court game.
You are getting a great price on the better, more rested team in this spot.

Bet Cavs ML (-129).

5* NO BRAINER on Hornets -11

The Wizards are essentially a G-League roster right now with their top stars on the shelf.
They are missing Trae Young and Anthony Davis, which leaves them with zero rim protection and no real offensive engine.

Washington already allowed the most points in the paint in the NBA, and now they are down Alex Sarr as well.
The Wizards are currently 14-39 and have clearly shifted their focus toward the draft lottery.

Charlotte comes in with a massive rest advantage for this Sunday tilt.
The Wizards played a physical game against Indiana on Saturday night and now have to face a fresh Hornets squad on zero rest.

Washington is a miserable 1-9 against the spread this season when playing the second half of a back-to-back.
They simply don't have the depth or the legs to keep up with Charlotte's pace for four quarters.

LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller are healthy and clicking at the right time.
The Hornets rank in the top five in effective field goal percentage over their last two weeks of play.

They should have no trouble slicing through a Washington defense that ranks dead last in efficiency.
Charlotte is fighting for a playoff spot in the East and has no reason to take their foot off the gas here.

Washington has lost six straight games by double digits and they show very little fight once they fall behind early.
The Hornets will use their transition game to run this tired Wizards team out of the building.

Even with a double-digit spread on the road, the talent gap is too large to ignore.
Expect Charlotte to jump out to a big lead early and cruise to an easy cover.

Bet Hornets -11.5.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Rockies +106

The Rockies are sitting at a nice plus-money price today and I see plenty of value on the home side. Colorado has come out of the gate with a much more disciplined approach at the plate than Chicago this spring.

The White Sox are currently dealing with several minor injuries to their projected starting infield. This has forced them to lean on depth players who are not quite ready for this level of competition.

Colorado is playing at their home spring facility where they historically perform much better. They have a clear comfort level in these surroundings that the White Sox lack when traveling.

Chicago's pitching staff has struggled with command through the first few days of camp. They are walking too many batters and giving up big innings because they can't find the zone.

The Rockies projected starter for today has looked sharp in his recent side sessions. He is focused on getting ahead in the count and attacking a Chicago lineup that is still trying to find its rhythm.

The White Sox are hitting under .220 as a team over their first few exhibition appearances. They are not driving the ball or putting enough pressure on opposing pitchers to be favored here.

Colorado has a much deeper bench in this matchup with several veterans competing for the final roster spots. These guys are playing for their jobs and that extra motivation shows up in the late innings.

The Chicago bullpen is currently a revolving door of young arms who are getting hit hard. Expect the Rockies to capitalize on those mistakes once the starters exit the game.

The value is clearly on the underdog here given the current state of both rosters. Colorado has the better momentum and the more stable lineup right now.

I like the Rockies ML (+106).

5* NO BRAINER on Angels -110

The Angels are in a prime spot to capitalize on a thin Rangers roster this afternoon. Texas is dealing with several early-camp injuries to their pitching staff and infield that limit their depth.

With Cody Bradford and Jordan Montgomery sidelined, the Rangers are forced to use unproven minor league arms for the bulk of these innings. These prospects will likely struggle against a motivated Angels lineup that is deeper at the top.

Los Angeles is expected to give significant reps to veteran additions Yon Moncada and Jorge Soler today. Both players are looking to find their rhythm early and prove they can be productive anchors in the middle of the order.

The Rangers are also adjusting to life without Marcus Semien in the infield. With his potential replacement, Cody Freeman, now out for weeks with a stress fracture, the Texas defense looks very vulnerable up the middle.

The Angels' pitching staff is healthy and fighting for rotation spots. Grayson Rodriguez is scheduled to throw and needs a strong performance to lock in his role after returning from his own injury stint.

Early Spring road games are notoriously difficult for visiting teams. Texas has to travel to Tempe and will likely leave their primary stars back at their own facility to avoid the bus trip.

The Angels' bullpen has a significant advantage in the late innings. They have a collection of high-velocity arms throwing at full tilt to secure the final spots on the Opening Day roster.

These relief pitchers are ahead of the hitters right now. Expect the Angels to control the pace of the game and exploit the Rangers' lack of experienced arms in the middle innings.

We are getting a pick'em price on the team with the more experienced lineup and superior pitching depth. The home-field energy in Tempe will be enough to push the Halos over the finish line.

I like the Angels ML (-110).