3* HEAVY HITTER on Washington State -2

Washington State is the much better team in this spot despite being on the road. This short line is a gift because of the massive gap in interior efficiency.

The Cougars rank inside the top 50 nationally in effective field goal percentage. San Diego is outside the top 200 in defensive rating and struggles to stop anyone at the rim.

WSU controls the glass on both ends of the floor. They are currently out-rebounding opponents by nearly seven boards per game.

San Diego is giving up way too many second-chance points during their recent slide. The Toreros have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five outings.

The Toreros also have a major problem taking care of the basketball. They turn it over on nearly 20% of their possessions, which is a recipe for disaster against this defense.

Washington State converts those mistakes into easy transition buckets and doesn't let teams back into the game. The Cougars are coming off a big win last Saturday and have had three full days of rest to prepare for this road trip.

San Diego lacks the depth to keep up if this game turns into a track meet. Wazzu has more options off the bench and better overall shooting from the perimeter.

Expect the Cougars to pull away late in the second half once the Toreros get into foul trouble. The size advantage for WSU will be the difference-maker in the paint all night.

I like the Washington State -2.5 (-110).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Fordham +5

Fordham is catching too many points in this Atlantic 10 battle tonight.
The Rams have built their identity on a high-pressure defense that makes every possession a total struggle.

That style is exactly what you want when backing a road underdog in conference play.
Davidson prefers a clean game with plenty of space to find their open shooters.

Fordham is going to take that space away and force this into a half-court grind.
The Rams rank near the top of the conference in defensive turnover percentage and effective field goal defense.

They fly to the ball and force opponents into tough, contested jumpers late in the shot clock.
Davidson has shown they can go cold for long stretches when they are pushed out of their comfort zone.

The Wildcats are also struggling to reward bettors at home lately.
They are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games when favored on their own court.

Fordham has had four full days to rest and prepare since their last game on Saturday.
They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog of five points or fewer.

The Rams also have a significant edge on the offensive glass.
They create second-chance opportunities that keep the clock moving and keep the score tight.

Davidson lacks the interior size to stop Fordham from winning the battle for loose balls and rebounds.
Expect a physical, low-scoring game that is decided in the final two minutes.

Getting five points with a live dog that plays this hard on the defensive end is a massive edge.
I like the Fordham +5 (-110).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Syracuse -3

Syracuse is a completely different beast when they play inside the JMA Wireless Dome. The Orange are looking to bounce back fast after a disappointing overtime loss to Boston College last Saturday.

Head coach Adrian Autry has this team playing elite defense at home this season. Syracuse holds a dominant 9-2 all-time record against Virginia Tech when playing in New York.

Virginia Tech is the ultimate home-court hero that falls apart on the road. The Hokies are 11-1 at home but have managed only one win in a true road environment all year.

Their perimeter shooting takes a massive hit away from home and the task gets even harder tonight. Key guard Tyler Johnson is officially ruled out for the Hokies with an ankle injury.

Losing a primary ball-handler is a nightmare when facing the length and pressure of this Syracuse defense. The Orange thrive on forcing turnovers and turning those mistakes into easy transition buckets.

Donnie Freeman should have his way in the paint against a thin Hokies frontcourt. Freeman is coming off a monster 19-point, 14-rebound performance and leads an Orange squad that is elite at offensive rebounding.

Virginia Tech lacks the size to keep Syracuse off the glass for forty minutes. The Hokies rank near the bottom of the conference in defensive rebounding percentage and will give up too many second-chance looks.

Syracuse has covered the spread in seven of their last ten games overall. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is a poor 4-6 against the spread over their last ten outings and looks tired.

The Orange are more athletic at every position and will wear down a Hokies rotation that is missing a key piece. Expect Syracuse to control the tempo and pull away mid-way through the second half.

The Dome will be rocking for this ACC showdown and the home team is the only way to look. This line is far too short for a team that is nearly unbeatable in its own building.

I like the Syracuse -3.5.

1* Free Pick on Seattle University -165

Seattle University is back home where they have played their best basketball of the season.
The Redhawks are 9-3 at the Redhawk Center and need a "get right" win after a tough battle with Gonzaga.

Loyola Marymount is heading into Seattle on a four-game road losing streak.
The Lions are just 2-5 straight up away from home and have failed to cover in most of those spots.

The biggest edge here is Seattles perimeter defense against LMUs volume shooting.
The Lions are a perimeter-reliant team that averages nearly nine made three-pointers per game.

Seattle ranks near the top of the conference in three-point defense, allowing only 6.7 makes per contest.
When you run LMU off the line, their offense tends to stagnate.

They lack a true post presence to punish teams inside.
Seattle shoots 53% on two-point attempts and should have a field day in the paint tonight.

The Redhawks also hold a significant advantage on the boards.
They rank much higher in defensive rebounding rate and won't give LMU many second-chance opportunities.

This limits the high variance that usually keeps LMU in games.
Seattle is coming off a physical game against a top-10 opponent and looks ready for this step down in class.

Their defense is too disciplined to let a streaky team like LMU hang around for forty minutes.
Expect the home crowd and superior interior efficiency to carry the Redhawks to a clear win.

I like the Seattle University ML (-165).

5* NO BRAINER on Sam Houston State -5

Kennesaw State is walking into a trap in Huntsville tonight because they are missing their primary engine. Leading scorer Simeon Cottle is suspended indefinitely, leaving a massive 20-point-per-game hole in an offense that relies on high-volume scoring.

The Owls play at the fourth-fastest pace in the country, but that speed is a liability without their best ball-handler. They already rank 237th nationally in turnovers per possession and will struggle to maintain rhythm in a hostile road environment.

Sam Houston is a dominant 7-1 at home this season and possesses the defensive discipline to exploit Kennesaws sloppy play. The Bearkats excel at forcing contested looks and rank significantly higher in overall defensive efficiency.

The shooting splits favor the home team heavily in this matchup. Sam Houston knocks down 36% of their looks from beyond the arc, while the Owls rank 212th in opponent three-point shooting percentage.

Kennesaw State managed a win in their last outing without Cottle, but that was a home game where they rode a career night from RJ Johnson. Repeating that performance on the road against a disciplined Sam Houston defense is a much tougher ask.

The Bearkats have the rebounding strength to negate Kennesaws second-chance opportunities and keep the game played on their terms. Expect Sam Houston to pull away in the second half as the Owls' depth issues and turnover problems mount.

This line is far too short for a team missing its superstar against one of the best home teams in Conference USA.

I like the Sam Houston State -5 (-114)

5* NO BRAINER of the Year on Pistons -8

Detroit is the best team in the Eastern Conference for a reason. They come into this game with a 31-10 record and a roster that is finally at full strength. Cade Cunningham is playing at an elite level and the team's defense is currently ranked second in the NBA.

New Orleans is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. They have the worst record in the league and are missing almost their entire core rotation. Dejounte Murray is out with an Achilles injury and defensive anchor Herb Jones is sidelined with an ankle sprain.

The Pelicans are also missing Jose Alvarado and Jonas Valanciunas. That leaves them with a massive hole in their bench depth and interior defense. New Orleans is giving up over 122 points per game, which is the 28th worst mark in basketball.

They simply don't have the bodies to stop a balanced Detroit attack. Zion Williamson has been healthy lately but he is on an island right now. He has to face a Detroit frontcourt led by Jalen Duren that ranks in the top five for rebounding and paint protection.

New Orleans has lost eight of their last ten games and holds a scoring differential of -7.3. Detroit has one of the best net ratings in the league at +7.2. The Pistons are 29-10 in their last 39 games and just beat a tough Boston team.

Laying single digits against a ten-win team missing four starters is the only way to play this. Detroit is too efficient on both ends for a decimated Pelicans roster to keep pace over four quarters.

I like the Pistons -8.5.

5* NO BRAINER on Tommy Fleetwood +145

Rory McIlroy is the biggest name in the field but he is the wrong favorite in this matchup. Tommy Fleetwood is a desert specialist who has dominated these specific conditions for years.

The oddsmakers are pricing Rory based on his star power rather than the current numbers. Fleetwood enters this week with a massive edge in driving accuracy and greens in regulation.

Rory has the advantage in raw distance but that won't help him much on this layout. The fairways are narrower than last year and the rough is much more punishing for anyone missing the short grass.

Fleetwood currently ranks in the top five for strokes gained approach over his last three tournaments. He is hitting his irons pure and giving himself birdie looks on nearly every hole.

McIlroy is making his first competitive start of the season and usually needs a few rounds to shake off the rust. His wedge play and scrambling often lag behind during his first week back on the course.

Tommy is already in a great rhythm and showed last week that his putter is finally heating up. He avoids the big mistakes and double-bogeys that can sink a head-to-head matchup.

You don't often get this kind of value on a course specialist who has multiple wins at this venue. Fleetwood is the more reliable ball-striker right now and should be the one favored in this spot.

I like the Tommy Fleetwood ML (+145).

5* NO BRAINER on Jason Day +115

Jason Day is a massive steal at plus-money in this matchup.
The oddsmakers are giving way too much credit to Rico Hoey's raw power off the tee.

This week at the American Express, success is all about the flat stick and avoiding big numbers.
Day remains one of the most elite scramblers and putters on the PGA Tour.

The veteran ranks significantly higher than Hoey in Strokes Gained: Putting and Bogey Avoidance.
In a tournament where the winning score is usually 20-under or better, you need a guy who can get hot on the greens.

Days short game is his equalizer.
He can save par from anywhere, which keeps his momentum alive during a long four-day grind.

Rico Hoey is a high-ceiling talent, but his floor is much lower than Days.
Hoey tends to struggle with his iron play and distance control on these desert courses.

The data shows Hoey is prone to "blow-up" holes that can ruin a matchup card in one or two swings.
Day has the experience to navigate the unique pro-am format and the three-course rotation used this week.

Days recent form shows his ball-striking is back to a level that complements his world-class chipping.
He is hitting more fairways and giving himself more looks at birdie than he did at this time last year.

Hoey is still learning how to manage his aggression on tracks that reward patience.
Day will sit back, make his putts, and let the younger player make the mistakes.

Getting a former world number one as an underdog in a head-to-head against an unproven winner is an easy call.
The value is clearly on the veteran at +115 to stay more consistent over the first two rounds.

I like the Jason Day ML (+115)