Free Picks Week #4 - 15-3-1 ATS Run!

[Pick Bot]

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Georgia -4.5 1.1% Free Play (63% career ATS backing Georgia) - 15-3-1 ATS RUN on Free Picks!

I’ll give the play at the top of the podcast and it’s on Georgia -4.5 between the hedges for our free play of the week. This is the most interesting match up of the week and I’m going to fade the hype of Miss State who just last week shocked LSU in their own building 37-7. I’m not overreacting. That was a massive coaching advantage for Miss State with Dan Mullen over Ed Orgeron as sad as it is to say.

In this game Kirby Smart has his best Georgia team and the last time he faced off against a good Miss State offense he did so as the DC at Alabama. They went on the road and held Dak Prescott, another mobile QB to just 89 yards rushing and 6 total points. This time a rested Georgia team hosts Miss State who just played a tough SEC game and is in a hang over spot, but let’s look at the match up a little more anyway.

For Miss State to win they must run the ball. Last year in their losses they averaged 2.31 ypc less compared to their wins. Nick Fitzgerald is getting some help this year from Aeris Williams who is averaging over 7 yards per carry, but this team had a very misleading victory at Louisiana Tech the week before and I expect some struggles getting that running game going this week.

Georgia defensively returns 10 starters this was a team that held Notre Dame and a mobile QB in Winbush to just 55 yards running and they did that on the road! Notre Dame’s offense has been great against everyone else and just ran for 515 yards last week against a usual stout Boston College defense. I believe that Miss State will have to win with the arm of Nick Fitzgerald and I don’t like his chances on the road where doesn’t have nearly as good of numbers particularly in the SEC road games where he only eclipsed a 101 QB rating once and it came against a bad pass defense in Ole Miss. How bad is a 101 QB Rating? Illinois, last year ranked 124th in college football for the season with a 101.4 QB rating. Fitzgerald on the road has a 107 QB rating. Vanderbilt ranked 116th in the nation a year ago with 107 QB rating.

Georgia’s offense is not lighting it up and that may be where most of you feel comfortable with 4.5 points if you are leaning towards Miss State’s side. A few things to look at here. Much like Miss State Georgia must run the ball to win behind their senior RB’s Nick Chubb and Sony Michel who are both having great years so far as this offense is averaging 230 yards rushing per game. Just so you know since 2008, Georgia is 38-4 when rushing for over 200 yards. Miss State’s defense allowed 5.16 ypc in SEC play a year ago and allowed 200+ in 3 of their 4 road games. Now they held LSU in check, but LSU ran it just 29 times and both of their RB’s averaged over 5 yards per carry. I also think Jake Fromm is flying under the radar he seems to be a major upgrade over Eason. He makes quick decisions and it has benefited the running game.

At the end of the day both teams have impressive wins against premier programs Notre Dame and LSU while also defeating some very good group of 5 teams Louisiana Tech & Appalachian State. It should be a fun game, but I see Georgia winning this one by 7-10 points at least.