Northwestern vs. Purdue - Big Ten Play of the Day - +$75K in

[Pick Bot]

Northwestern +1.5 2.2% play
I'm taking the Wildcats as the most experienced team here with a veteran and future NFL QB in Clayton Thorson who should be back after suffering an ACL injury in the bowl game last year. I also peaked at the total given that Purdue's offense will be improved and the defense will take a major step back, but Pat Fitzgerald's teams typically stay under the total early in the season and that line has moved almost 4 points.
Northwestern has been a profitable play as a road dog going 10-3 ATS since 2014 season and I think they have the more complete team here. Northwestern's defense returns 7 starters and have ranked in the top 30 in run defense in each of the last 3 years. Northwestern's secondary is experienced after suffering injuries in 2017 and that should help them particularly in the red zone. Purdue does need to run the ball to set up the pass as they were +1 yards per carry and 10 rushing TD's to 2 in wins vs. losses last year. Purdue may be able to pass the ball and score some points, but without balance I don't see them really being able to score TD's. Purdue had 398 yards passing against Northwestern last year and only scored 13 points to put thing into perspective.
I really do like Jeff Brohm as a head coach, and in year 2, power 5 head coaches have success, but mostly as under dogs. I'll fade Brohm here as Purdue is getting too much respect and hype based off last year's results when Brohm even admitted he inherited quite a good team in 2017. This year will likely be a step back.