15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Oakland -5

Oakland is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its eight games this season and remains grossly undervalued.  You could tell this team was going to be good when they gave two good Big Ten opponents all they could handle in their first two games of the season.

The Golden Grizzlies only lost by 6 at Ohio State as 19.5-point dogs and by 11 at Illinois as 24-point dogs.  They blasted Bowling Green 81-62 in their lone home game this season as 2.5-point favorites.  They only lost by 8 to Drake on a neutral as 9-point dogs, upset Loyola-Marymount by 5 as 6-point dogs, upset Marshall by 7 as 2.5-point dogs.  They then upset Xavier as 15-point road dogs and avoided the letdown by crushing Detroit by 15 as 6.5-point road favorites.

Now Oakland is back home for only the 2nd time all season.  Now they will have no problem getting back motivated to play a conference game against IPFW, who looks like one of their biggest threats to win this conference.  However, IPFW's 7-1 start is more fool's gold than anything because they have played such a soft schedule.

Indeed, while Oakland has played the 27th toughest schedule int he country, IPFW has played the 333rd-ranked schedule out of 363 teams.  That's the reason they were 7-1 more than anything.  In their toughest game this season, they lost 76-60 as 13.5-point dogs at San Francisco.  I would argue Oakland is the best team they will have played yet this season, and it won't go well for them.  Bet Oakland Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Indiana State/Bradley UNDER 150

Indiana State and Bradley are two of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  Both are off to 6-1 starts and both play great defense.  Bradley will control the tempo playing at home today ranking 270th in adjusted tempo and 78th in adjusted defense.  Indiana State ranks 114th in adjusted defense.

The head-to-head history really stood out to me in this one.  Bradley and Indiana State have now combined for 147 or fewer points in eight consecutive meetings.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 150-point total.  

They played three times last year and went for 141, 145 and 119 combined points, so they are very familiar with one another.  Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Toledo -3.5

I love the spot for Toledo today.  After opening the season with blowout home wins over Detroit 94-60 as 15.5-point favorites and LA-Lafayette 87-78 as 7.5-point favorites, they have been on the road since November 11th against some great teams.

Toledo upset Wright State 78-77 as 2.5-point road dogs, then hung with New Mexico in a 92-84 loss, UC-Irvine in a 77-71 loss and Indiana State in a 76-74 loss all on neutral courts.  All four of those teams rank in the Top 120 in the country in KenPom, including the last three 76th or higher.  It's safe to say Toledo is going to be highly motivated for a victory when they return home for the first time in three weeks.

While Toledo has played the 47th-toughest schedule in the country, George Mason has faced the 260th.  That's a big reason GMU is 6-1 this season and overvalued now as a result.  Five of the seven games came at home against Monmouth (231), Austin Peay (272), Cornell (110), East Carolina (209) and NJIT (352).  They only beat South Dakota State (124) by 2 on a neutral and were upset by Charlotte (134) by 5 on a neutral.  Not only will this be the first true road game for George Mason, but it will also be the best opponent they have faced yet this season.  I don't expect it to go well for them.

Toledo is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite or PK and the Rockets have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country.  The Rockets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet Toledo Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Houston Rockets +5

The Houston Rockets have been consistently competitive for a month.  They have gone 8-5 SU & 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games dating back to November 1st with only one loss by more than 6 points.  That loss came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Denver last time out, and they were missing Fred VanVleet for that contest.

The Rockets have since had two days off to rest and recover, and VanVleet will be back in the lineup tonight.  The Rockets have their sights set on revenge from a 104-105 road loss to the Lakers as identical 5-point underdogs on November 19th just two weeks ago.

This is a tough spot for the Lakers.  They return home from a 4-game road trip, and I love fading teams on that first home game back from an extended road trip.  There's all kinds of distractions for them to deal with at home.  It will also be the 5th game in 8 days in their 5th different city for the Lakers.

It will be just the 4th game in 10 days for the Rockets.  Houston is 7-0 ATS when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days this season.  Bet the Rockets Saturday.

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20* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Heat OVER 240

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 15-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 127.9 points per game and allowing 125.8 points per game.  They rank 1st in pace, 1st in offensive rating and 28th in defensive rating.

The Miami Heat combined for 255 points with Milwaukee and then 274 points with Indiana in their last two home games.  We only need 240-plus combined points to cash this OVER in the rematch, which is 34 points less than what they just combined for on Thursday.  We'll get 240-plus tonight, especially with Miami's best defender in Bam Adebayo out for the rematch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +2

The Portland Trail Blazers got two key guards back from injury in Malcolm Brogdon and Scoot Henderson.  It's no surprise to me that they have been playing well since, and they have been an undervalued commodity in recent games due to their poor start to the season with all these injuries.

Indeed, the Blazers have gone 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They beat Utah 121-105 as 3-point home dogs, only lost 102-108 at Milwaukee as 13-point dogs after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead, won outright at Indiana 114-110 as 12-point dogs and won outright at Cleveland 103-95 as 12-point dogs.

The Blazers aren't just covering they are destroying these spreads.  They have covered their last four games by a combined 62 points.  Now they are somehow underdogs to the Utah Jazz, who are without their two best players in Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson.

It's no wonder the Jazz are struggling going 2-6 SU in their last eight games overall.  It's also no wonder their offense is broken as they have scored 105 or fewer points in five of their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 90-101 loss at Minnesota which followed up a 91-105 loss at Memphis.

Utah is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9.5

The Detroit Pistons not winning a single game in November has made some headlines lately.  Their 17-game losing streak dates back to October 30th.  With this media attention comes an opportunity for us to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  They will be desperate to end this skid tonight.

The Pistons were competitive in their 112-118 loss at New York last time out as 14.5-point underdogs, and they have been more competitive at home than on the road.  Asking the Cavaliers to win this game by double-digits on the road to beat us is asking too much.

The Cavaliers are 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost by 33 to Miami at home, lost by 6 to the Lakers at home, beat the Raptors by just 3 at home and lost outright to the Blazers by 8 as 12-point home favorites.  They certainly aren't playing well enough to warrant being this big of a favorite on the road tonight.

Detroit is as healthy as they have been all season with both Ausar Thompson and Bojan Bogdanovic upgraded to probable tonight.  The time is now to 'buy low' on the Pistons.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Los Angeles Clippers -4.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 120-114 loss at Golden State on Thursday.  Now they get the Warriors at home in the rematch so they don't have to wait long to get their revenge.

The Clippers were at a big disadvantage in that game at Golden State because they were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a shootout 131-117 road win at Sacramento the night before.  They didn't have much left in the tank and were still competitive.  Now, after having Friday off, I expect a much better effort from them in the rematch.

The Warriors won't be nearly as motivated to beat this team again.  Plus, the Warriors are missing two key players in Chris Paul and Gary Payton II, and Andrew Wiggins is questionable.  Meanwhile, the Clippers are fully healthy for this one and primed for a big effort.

The Warriors are 20-36 ATS in their last 56 road games.  Golden State is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games after going over the total in two consecutive games.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Enough said.  Bet the Clippers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Indiana Pacers +3.5

The Indiana Pacers want revenge from their 132-142 loss at Miami on Thursday.  They don't have to wait long to get their revenge as they play again here just two days later Saturday.  The difference is the Heat will be missing their best defender and arguably their most important player in Bam Adebayo for the rematch.

While the Pacers will be locked in wanting revenge, the Heat will relax a little not being overly excited to try and beat this team again.  I think things will come even easier for the Pacers than they did in that first meeting without Adebayo.  The Pacers rank 1st in offensive rating this season and 1st in adjusted tempo.  Miami doesn't want to try to defend these guys again.

Miami is 14-27 ATS in its last 41 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - after scoring 120 points or more against an opponent after a combined score of 255 points or more are 41-11 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

20* Louisville/Florida State ACC Championship No-Brainer on UNDER 49

Florida State losing star QB Jordan Travis in a meaningless game against North Alabama is one of the biggest tragedies in college football this season.  They were a legit playoff contender with him, but now they may not make it even if they beat Louisville.  I don't know if they are going to win the game, but I do know they won't be very good on offense against Louisville with backup QB Tate Rodemaker.

We got to see how they are going to play moving forward with him in a 24-15 win over Florida in an absolute defensive battle last week.  That's a Florida team with a terrible defense, too.  The Seminoles managed just 224 total yards against Florida while limiting the Gators to 232 yards.  They shortened the game running just 57 offensive snaps while Florida ran only 60.

Florida State is going to have to lean on a defense that has been one of the best in the country this season.  The Seminoles allow just 16.8 points per game, 316 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.  They will be up against a Louisville team that also relies heavily on defense, allowing just 20.0 points per game, 317 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play this season.

The Seminoles aren't going to let Rodemaker lose the game for them.  They are going to try and run the football.  Well, the Cardinals are great against the run, allowing 99 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry this season.  Louisville wants to throw the football, and FSU is great against the pass, allowing just 47.7% completions, 175 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt.

There is better than a 50% chance of rain at Bank of American Stadium in Charlotte, NC for this one that could also help keep this one UNDER the total.  When the stakes are this high, I usually look to back the UNDER, and this matchup definitely fits the bill.

Florida State is 11-1 UNDER in its last 12 games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or higher, and 7-0 UNDER in its last seven games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt.  Louisville is 6-0 UNDER in its last six games after a game where they committed three or more turnovers.  They will be much more careful with the ball this week after a fluky 38-31 loss to Kentucky in which turnovers led to easy scores as they held the Wildcats to just 293 total yards for the game.  That misleading final also has this total inflated this week.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +15

Oklahoma State is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall and earned its way into the Big 12 Championship.  They are playing on house money now and would love nothing more than to ruin Texas' final season in the Big 12.  They pretty much ruined it for Oklahoma by upsetting them, and now they take their shot at the Longhorns.

This turnaround started with continuity at QB with Alan Bowman and the emergence of RB Ollie Gordon, who has rushed for 1,580 yards and 20 TD while averaging 6.4 per carry this season.  Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games.  They average 33.4 points per game, 471-7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in.  That letdown was expected.

But the Cowboys have bounced back nicely since and handled their business with a 43-30 road win as 7-point favorites at Houston with 514 total yards and a 40-34 (OT) win over BYU in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They outgained BYU 503 to 327, or by 176 total yards.  But BYU took advantage of some early turnovers and jumped out to a 24-6 lead.  Oklahoma State could have folded, instead they fought back to take the lead with all the pressure on them of trying to win the game to get to the Big 12 title game.  They fell behind in the 1st OT, but then scored two touchdowns in a row to come up clutch and the defense held in the 2nd OT.  They have to be feeling like they can overcome anything after that comeback, which has been the story of their season.

Texas is overvalued off the blowout win over Texas Tech last week.  But nothing has come easy for the Longhorns outside of that home win plus another home win over BYU down the stretch.  In fact, five of their last seven games have been decided by 10 points or less, and if not for a blocked PAT returned for a TD in the 10-point win over Iowa State, it would be five games decided by 7 points or fewer.  That includes narrows road wins over Houston by 7 and TCU by 3, two of the worst teams in the Big 12.  They have been great at home but it has been a different story on the road, and this game will be played on a neutral at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

Each of the last six meetings between Texas and Oklahoma State have been decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, Oklahoma State is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings as underdogs with three outright upsets.  Texas hasn't beaten Oklahoma State by more than 7 points in any of the last eight meetings, making for an 8-0 system backing the Cowboys pertaining to this inflated 15-point spread.

Speaking of 8-0 systems, Oklahoma State is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. excellent teams outscoring opponents by 17-plus points per game on the season and actually outscoring these teams by 4.4 points per game on average.  Mike Gundy has a way of getting his teams to play up to their level of their competition.  The Longhorns have all the pressure on them here of trying to win the Big 12 and make the four-team playoff.  I'll gladly side with the Cowboys playing with nothing to lose.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/Texas OVER 55

Oklahoma State is a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 6-3 OVER in their last nine games overall with 48 or more combined points in all nine, and 58 or more combined points in six of those.  So this total of 55 is pretty low for a game involving the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State has really turned up its offense in Big 12 play.  The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in eight of their nine Big 12 games.  They average 33.4 points per game, 471.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season.  Those numbers would be even better if they even showed up against UCF after beating Oklahoma in a game they were held to just 3 points in.  But they have not been good defensively, allowing 29.7 points per game, 446.3 yards per game and 6.5 per play in Big 12 action this season.

The Texas Longhorns have scored at least 26 points in every game this season and average 35.4 points per game, 478.0 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Those numbers would be even better if they didn't lose QB Quinn Ewers for 2.5 games against Houston, BYU and Kansas State.

Each of the last five meetings between Oklahoma State and Texas have seen 56 or more combined points.  They have gone for 75, 56, 75, 66 and 73 combined points in the last five meetings.  As you can see, these games are sailing well OVER this 55-point total, making for a 5-0 system backing the OVER.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout too inside the dome at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Clemson/Pittsburgh ACC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -1.5

The Clemson Tigers are in a massive letdown spot today.  They are coming off a 85-77 upset road win as 8-point underdogs at Alabama on November 28th.  Now I expect them to fall flat on their faces at Pittsburgh this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the Panthers will be highly motivated for a victory after getting upset by Missouri at home as 7-point favorites last time out.  So this is also a 'buy low' spot on the Panthers off an upset loss, and a 'sell high' spot on the Tigers off an upset win.

Clemson is 7-18 ATS in its lat 25 road games following a road win.  Brad Brownell is 2-9 ATS in road games off a road win as the coach of Clemson.  Pittsburgh is 29-12 ATS in its last 41 games overall.  The Panthers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Jeff Capel is 18-7 ATS vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Panthers will hand the Tigers their first loss of the season today.  Bet Pittsburgh Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dolphins/Commanders OVER 49

The Washington Commanders are a dead nuts OVER team.  They probably currently have the worst defense in the NFL after trading away two of their best defensive linemen in Sweat to the Bears and Young to the 49ers.  They also have a ton of injuries in the secondary that are making them dreadful on that end right now.

Indeed, the Commanders have allowed 29 points and 489 yards to the Seahawks, 31 points to Tommy DeVito and the Giants and 45 points and 431 yards to the Cowboys in their last three games coming in.  It's safe to say this No. 1 ranked Miami offense is going to hang a big number on them this week.

Miami averages 30.8 points per game, 430.5 yards per game and 7.0 yards per play this season as the top offense in the league.  They have managed to stay remarkably healthy at receiver and QB, and now they get their explosive RB in Achane back from a knee injury this week.  He averages 11.8 yards per carry with 461 yards and 5 TD.  He and Mostert form one of the best 1-2 punches in the NFL, and they are in line for big games in this one.

The Dolphins have an improving defense with Jalen Ramsey returning from injury, but unfortunately they lost another key cog last week in pass-rusher Jaelan Phillips late in their 34-13 road win over the Jets.  Sam Howell has been one of the most impressive rookies in the NFL for Washington and actually leads the league in passing yards.  

Howell has thrown 18 touchdowns against 13 interceptions this season while completing 67% of his passes and averaging 278.3 passing yards per game.  He has also rushed for 222 yards and three TD while averaging 6.2 per carry.  He is a walking turnover though, so expect some easy scores by the Dolphins due to those turnovers.  But Howell will keep coming, and that's what you need when backing an OVER is the trailing team capable of scoring quickly in comeback mode.  We have that here on both sides.

Miami is 9-2 OVER in its last 11 road games vs. poor pass defenses that allow 61% or higher completions.  Mike McDaniel is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good rushing teams averaging 4.5 or more yards per carry as the coach of the Dolphins.  Ron Rivera is 30-12 OVER vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 6-plus points per game as a head coach.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers went 58 games in a row without gaining 400 yards.  It spanned from Matt Canada's first game as offensive coordinator to his last.  Fittingly, Canada was fired last week, and the Steelers topped 400 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals.  They used the middle of the field a lot more with TE Pat Freirmuth and got their running game going, which has quietly been dominant in recent weeks.

The Steelers have rushed for at least 153 yards in four consecutive games and an average of 174 yards per game to take some pressure off Kenny Pickett.  He had one of the best games of his career against the Bengals, going 24-of-33 passing for 278 yards without an interception in the win.  The Steelers outgained the Bengals by 200 yards and should have won by more as it was a misleading final in a 16-10 win.  I think that misleading final is keeping this line shorter than it should be.

Now the Steelers get to go up against a similarly poor defense in the Arizona Cardinals this week.  The Cardinals gave up 419 yards to the Texans two weeks ago and 37 points and 457 total yards to the Rams last week.  They should have allowed more points to the Texans as CJ Stroud threw three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line to take points off the board.  That was a misleading final and they were fortunate to cover the 5.5-point spread in a 5-point loss.

The Steelers should be able to run the ball at will against an Arizona defense that allows 140 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  They gave up 228 rushing yards to the Rams last week and have allowed at least 111 rushing yards in seven consecutive games.  They just lost their top LB in Kyzir White to a season-ending injury against the Texans and have a ton more injuries that are hampering them defensively.

The offense doesn't look any better with Kyler Murray at QB than it did with Josh Dobbs.  They managed just 16 points against the Texans two weeks ago and 14 points against the Rams last week. Three key playmakers in WR Marquise Brown, WR Michael Wilson and TE Trey McBride all missed practice Wednesday and are questionable.  Speaking of questionable, the Cardinals have questionable motivation the rest of the way and would be better off trying to tank for a top pick.  They may do so without even trying as they are one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Steelers have a lot more to play for and are trying to win a division title.  They trail the Ravens by just one game in the division and have the tiebreaker over them.  They have five straight very winnable games coming up and want to take advantage.  I think with new life on offense and an already dominant defense, the sky is the limit for this team.  Plus, they should get S Minkah Fitzpatrick back from injury as he returned to practice this week.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.

Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record in the second half of the season.  Mike Tomlin does a good job of getting his players to take every game seriously the later in the season it gets.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* AFC PLAY OF THE DAY on Broncos/Texans OVER 45

It has taken a couple miracles to keep the last two Houston games under the total.  I know because I've been on the over in both of them, and both losses were bad beats.  I think there's value in the OVER in a Houston game this week as a result.

Houston and Arizona scored 31 combined points in the 1st half two weeks ago.  But they only had 6 points after halftime due to CJ Stroud throwing three interceptions inside the Arizona 25-yard line, and the Cardinals turning it over on downs three times in Arizona territory.

Last week, Houston and Jacksonville combined for over 800 yards of offense.  But there were three missed FG's and the Jaguars were stopped at the 1-yard line to finish on 45 combined points and under the closing 48-point total.  I have to think Houston is going to start cashing in more scoring opportunities, and Denver will get their fair share of points this week as well.

CJ Stroud and this Houston offense are humming right now.  The Texans average 375 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season behind a passing game that averages 276 passing yards per game.  Stroud is completing 63.7% of his passes for 3,266 yards with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He is loaded with receivers on the outside, and both Tank Dell and Noah Brown returned to practice on Thursday.  They haven't had each of their top four receivers available since Week 1, making what Stroud has done even more impressive.  They should have all four this week.

Russell Wilson is clearly more comfortable in Sean Payton's offense now than he was at the beginning of the season.  The Broncos have scored at least 21 points in four consecutive games and an average of 24.5 points per game during this stretch despite facing four good defenses in the Chiefs, Bills, Vikings and Browns.  This Houston defense that ha s allowed at least 24 points in three of their last four is actually a big step down in competition for Wilson and company.  But the Texans will get their points, and Wilson will be forced to try to keep up in a shootout in perfect conditions inside the dome in Houston.

 I don't think this Denver defense is as good as it is getting credit for.  The Broncos have benefited from forcing a total of 16 turnovers during their five-game winning streak.  But the season-long stats show this is one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  The Broncos allow 25.5 points per game, 388.3 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play this season, with the latter two numbers being the worst marks in the league.

Plays on the OVER on any team (Houston) - off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent in the 2nd half of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Lions/Saints OVER 44.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL and a very leaky defense.  This is a very low total for a game involving the Lions, so I jumped on this OVER 44.5 early in the week when the lines came out.

In their last four games the Lions scored 26 points and had 486 total yards against the Raiders, scored 41 points and had 533 yards against the Chargers, scored 31 points and had 338 yards against the Bears and scored 22 points and had 464 yards against the Packers.  They are pretty much fully healthy on offense and showing how good they can be when that's the case.

But the Lions have been a disaster on defense over the last three weeks.  They have allowed 31.0 points per game, 377.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play despite facing the Bears, Packers and Chargers, so it's not like they have faced any elite offenses.  They lost LB Alex Anzalone against the Packers and he is doubtful to play Sunday.  Even the New Orleans Saints are going to hang a big number on the Lions this week.

Injuries have really decimated this New Orleans defense.  They were already without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore, then they lost DE Cameron Jordan last week against the Falcons and he is their best defensive lineman.  Jordan is very questionable to play in this game after not practicing all week.  S Marcus Maye and LB Pete Werner have both been ruled out as well.

The Saints allowed 27 points and 388 total yards to a mediocre Vikings offense and 24 points and 396 total yards to a mediocre Falcons offense in their last two games.  They have now allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five games overall with the lone exception coming against the Bears, who turned it over five times or would have scored more.

The OVER is 6-2 in Detroit's last eight games overall with 44 or more combined points in six of hose eight games.  The OVER is 3-2 in Saints last five games overall with at least 39 combined points in all five, and 46 or more combined points in three of the five.  It will be perfect conditions for a shootout inside the dome in New Orleans.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.