Jack's Free Pick Friday: Indiana Pacers -4

The Indiana Pacers will be motivated for a win tonight off two straight losses to two of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Clippers and Mavericks.  Now they should get right here against an Orlando Magic team that has been struggling for weeks.

The Pacers just got Jeremy Lamb back from a torn ACL.  He scored 10 points in 19 minutes and will only get better as the season goes on.  There's a chance that they get Myles Turner back tonight as well.  Either way, this team is good enough to win and cover against the Magic tonight.

Orlando is 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall with the six losses coming by an average of 19.8 points per game.  Their only win came in a 20-point comeback against the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves as 4-point favorites, winning at the buzzer 97-96.  Injuries have been a problem for the Magic all season and continue to be.

The Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Pacers are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games following a double-digit home loss.  Indiana is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Pacers are the more rested team right now playing their 3rd game in 8 days, while the Magic will be playing their 5th game in 8 days.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

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15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Fresno State +15.5

I like the spot for the Fresno State Bulldogs tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 51-73 loss at Boise State as 14.5-point dogs on Wednesday.  Now the Bulldogs come back as 15.5-point dogs in the rematch and will be the more motivated team here.

Boise State will feel like they just have to show up to win after beating Fresno State by 22 points just two days ago.  That will work against them here as it will be difficult to match the intensity they played with in the first meeting.  Plus, you're paying a tax to back the Bulldogs at this point after opening the season 13-1 SU & 9-3-1 ATS.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (Fresno State) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent against a team that is off two straight covers as double-digit favorites are 62-33 (65.3%) ATS since 1997.

Fresno State is 40-23 ATS in its last 63 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  The Bulldogs are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games off two straight conference losses.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Fresno State Friday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -4

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the Sacramento Kings, who are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  But it has come against a brutal schedule of the Clippers (twice), Blazers and Pelicans.  Now they get to face one of the worst teams in the East in the Knicks and will take advantage.

It's a great rest spot for the Kings as they will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  It's a terrible rest spot for the Knicks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after an upset road win over the Golden State Warriors last night.  It will also be the 8th game in 13 days for the Knicks here.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota Timberwolves +6

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who just blew a 20-point lead against the Magic and lost 96-97 at the buzzer last time out.  This is a motivated, rested Timberwolves team that will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days here tonight.

The Timberwolves will be out for revenge from a 97-108 road loss at Atlanta on December 18th just five days ago.  Now they get their shot at revenge here Friday night and are catching 6 points at home in the rematch.  This is a game they can win outright.

It's not like the Hawks are playing all that well right now, either.  They are 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They erased a huge deficit to come back and beat the Pistons in overtime at home last time out.  Cam Redish and De'Andre Hunter are questionable tonight, while they are still without Bogdanovic and Gallinari.

Atlanta is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after winning two of its last three games coming in.  The Hawks are 1-10 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game.  Atlanta is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 road games.  The Hawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Roll with the Timberwolves Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Toronto Raptors -2.5

The Toronto Raptors will be out for revenge from a 102-111 home loss to the Miami Heat on Wednesday.  Look for them to have their revenge tonight in the rematch just two days later on Friday.

Now the Raptors go from being 4-point favorites in that first meeting to just 2.5-point favorites in the rematch, so there's some line value here.  Plus the Raptors aren't going to shoot as poorly as they did in the first meeting, where they shot just 39.8% compared to 48.7% for Miami.  That includes 18-for-40 (45%) from 3-point range for the Heat, which is very unlikely for them to repeat.

Miami is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 road games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game.  The Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.  Take the Raptors Friday.

20* Celtics/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 222.5

These teams just played on Wednesday with the 76ers winning 117-109 at home for 226 combined points.  The total was 220 for that game and now the books have jacked up this total 2.5 points to 222.5.  I think that's the wrong adjustment, and now there's great value with the UNDER in the rematch.

Familiarity favors defense.  Points will be much harder to come by in the rematch.  And the 76ers shot a whopping 45 free throws in that first meeting and made 36 of them.  They aren't going to get a free 36 points in the rematch, and they certainly won't get nearly as many calls as they did in that first game.

The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 216 or fewer in five of those.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Celtics last 20 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 8-2 in 76ers last 10 games following an ATS win.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 220 or higher (Boston) - a well rested team playing four or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 87-34 (71.9%) since 1996.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington State +10

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington State Cougars.  They have lost four straight after opening the season 9-1 with their only loss coming to Arizona in OT.  They have played four of their last five on the road against a very tough schedule.  Now they are back home here against Colorado.

We know that Colorado is one of the best bets in the country when they are playing at home.  But they are one of the worst bets when they are on the road.  The Buffalos are 2-4 SU in their last six road games with neither win coming by more than 10 points.  That includes their 80-84 upset loss at Washington last time out as 13-point favorites.  That's a 2-11 Washington team.

The home team is 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Washington State is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Colorado with three outright upset victories.  Washington State hasn't lost any of its last six home meetings with Colorado by more than 9 points.  The Buffaloes are 15-42 ATS in their last 57 road games.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

20* Providence/Villanova FOX No-Brainer on Providence +11.5

Providence is a gritty team that doesn't go away easily.  That is evident by the fact that they have gone 6-4 SU & 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games overall with all four losses coming by 10 points or fewer, including three by 6 points or less.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the Friars pertaining to this 11.5-point spread.  They just upset Creighton 74-70 as 10-point road underdogs last time out.

Asking Villanova to win by 12-plus points to beat us is asking too much.  Especially for a Wildcats team that didn't play a single game between December 23rd and January 19th due to COVID.  They just returned to practice on Thursday last week and only had eight players available.  They were rusty in a 76-74 win over Seton Hall as 8.5-point favorites in their return to action.  And they still won't be hitting on all cylinders yet today.

Six of the last seven meetings in this series were decided by 11 points or less.  That includes a 58-54 upset as 7.5-point dogs by Providence at Villanova last year.  The Friars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games.  Providence is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a road dog or PK.  Take Providence Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Syracuse -1

The Syracuse Orange are grossly undervalued right now.  They should be more than 1-point favorites here at home against the Virginia Tech Hokies.  They played up to their potential in their 83-57 win over Miami last time out.  And they will come back with another big effort here with a ranked Hokies team coming to town.

I think it's time to 'sell high' on the Hokies, who are 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall but it has come against a pretty easy schedule.  Their only two road games during this stretch came in a loss at Louisville and a narrow 64-60 win over a bad Wake Forest team.  This will arguably be their toughest test of the season to date.

Syracuse is 6-1 SU In its last seven home meetings with Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games off two straight conference games.  The Hokies are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.  Virginia Tech is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.