Jack's Free Pick Friday: St. Louis Cardinals -140

Adam Wainwright just keeps getting it done late in his career.  He went 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 32 starts last season.  He has picked up where he left off, going 4-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.225 WHIP in seven starts thus far in 2022.

Wainwright simply owns the Pirates, going 24-7 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 44 career starts against them.  The Pirates haven't touched him in recent years.  Wainwright is 8-0 with a 0.65 ERA in his last eight starts against Pittsburgh while allowing just 4 earned runs in 55 innings.

He'll be opposed by Zach Thompson, who is 1-3 with a 5.68 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts this season while averaging just 4.2 innings per start.  The Cardinals are 15-3 in Wainwright's last 18 starts following a team loss.  Bet the Cardinals Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins -118

The Minnesota Twins are rolling right now after a slow start to get to 22-16 this season.  Their lineup is healthy outside of Miguel Sano and they are really raking.  The same cannot be said for the Royals, who are without their best hitter in Salvador Perez and also CF Michael A. Taylor.  SS Alberto Mondesi is out as well.

It's no wonder the Royals are struggling to score runs this season.  They are scoring just 3.6 runs per game overall and 2.7 runs per game at home.  It won't get any easier for them against Devin Smeltzer, who is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.774 WHIP in two career starts against the Royals.

The Twins are 7-0 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter.  Minnesota is 9-1 in its last 10 vs. AL Central opponents.  Kansas City is 1-8 in its last nine games as a home underdog.  Roll with the Twins Friday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -130

The Los Angeles Dodgers just lost three out of four to the Philadelphia Phillies at home.  It's revenge time now.  The Dodgers lost as -215, -180 and -145 favorites.  Now we are getting them as a -130 favorite in the same pitching matchup where they were -180 favorites at home with Urias over Suarez.  Home-field advantage isn't worth this much.

Urias was rocked in that start, but it was an aberration.  He is one of the best starters in baseball and will be out for revenge as well.  Urias is 2-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.139 WHIP in seven starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Ranger Suarez, who is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.581 WHIP in four home starts this season.

I like the fact that the Dodgers had yesterday off while the Phillies completed their series with the Padres yesterday, so the Dodgers will be the fresher team.  The Phillies were without Bryce Harper yesterday and have scored just three runs total in their last thee games.  They could be without Harper and Jean Segura, who are both questionable, and will be without Didi Gregorius.  The Dodgers' lineup is fully healthy and arguably the best in baseball.

The Dodgers are 72-29 in their last 101 games overall.  Take the Dodgers Friday.

20* Mavs/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Dallas +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-6 SU & 15-4-1 ATS in the last 20 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Dallas and Golden State is definitely evenly matched.

It was a tough spot for the Mavericks in Game 1 coming off their Game 7 win at Phoenix.  They were flat and nothing went right.  They shot 36% from the field and 11-of-48 (22.9%) from 3-point range.  Meanwhile, the Warriors shot 56.1% from the field and won in a 112-87 blowout.

But this series will be much more competitive than Game 1 showed.  And now the Warriors go from 5.5-point favorites in Game 1 to 6.5-point favorites in Game 2, which is an overreaction and the wrong adjustment.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Mavericks, who went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Warriors during the regular season.

The Mavericks are 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more this season.  Dallas is 38-16 ATS in its last 54 games following a SU loss.  The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.  Bet the Mavericks Friday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -128

Kyle Wright has been one of the best starters in baseball this season.  He is 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in seven starts with a whopping 50 K's in 42 innings and only two homers allowed.  Wright is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against the Marlins, pitching 12 shutout innings with 18 K's to boot.

He'll be opposed by Elieser Hernandez, who is 2-3 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.426 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Hernandez has already allowed 10 homers in 33 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and three homers in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Braves for a 7.72 ERA as well.

Simply put, the Braves should be bigger favorites over the Marlins today considering their big advantage on the mound.  Atlanta is 23-9 in its last 32 games as a road favorite.  Miami is 3-10 in its last 13 vs. a right-handed starter.  The Braves are 65-31 in the last 96 meetings in Miami.  Atlanta is 47-21 in the last 68 meetings overall.  Roll with the Braves Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+110)

The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Washington Nationals 7-0 yesterday to improve to 25-14 on the season while dropping the Nationals to 13-27.  It should be more of the same today with a blowout win in favor of the Brewers due to their big advantage on the mound.

Brandon Woodruff is one of the best pitchers in the game.  He is 3-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.660 WHIP in three home starts this season.  Woodruff has never lost to the Nationals, going 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.542 WHIP in four career starts against them.

Patrick Corbin is 0-6 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.681 WHIP in eight starts this season.  The Nationals are 0-8 in Corbin's eight starts with seven of those eight losses coming by two runs or more.  Corbin is 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.491 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Brewers as well.

The Nationals are 6-25 in Corbin's last 31 starts as an underdog and losing by 2.5 runs per game.  Take the Brewers on the Run Line Saturday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Miami +6.5

The Zig Zag theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 14-7 SU & 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 instances.  Teams are much better in this round and fighting to make the NBA Finals, so they tend to be pretty evenly matched.  And this series with Miami and Boston is definitely evenly matched.

I cashed in the Heat in Game 1 and came back with an easy winner on the Celtics in Game 2 in this series.  Now I'm back on Miami in Game 3.  This is way too big of an adjustment for the Celtics' 25-point blowout win in Game 2.  The Heat go from being 1-point favorites to 6.5-point underdogs, a 7.5-point adjustment which is too big for home-court advantage.

Boston isn't going to shoot 20-of-40 (50%) from 3-point range again, and Miami isn't going to shoot as poorly (10-of-34, 29.4%) from 3-point range as they did in Game 2.  The Heat have been an extremely resilient team all season and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder off that blowout defeat.

Miami is 16-5 ATS following an upset loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Heat are 15-6 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this season.  Miami is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Saturday.