15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Antonio Spurs +9.5

The Golden State Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over the Devin Booker-less Phoenix Suns last night.  They are being asked to win by double-digits to beat us tonight, and I think that's asking too much.

The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with an 8-point home win over Boston, a 17-point home win over Washington and a 31-point road win at Portland all outright as underdogs.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.

The Spurs are 13-3 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days over the last two seasons.  San Antonio is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  It's time to 'sell high' on the tired Warriors tonight.  Roll with the Spurs Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +3.5

The Chicago Bulls have gotten healthy with Nikola Vucevic back and are starting to play up to their potential again.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming to the Heat by 3.  They beat the Magic by 35 on the road, the Hornets by 14 at home and the Knicks by 4 on the road.

While the Bulls are rested and ready to go after having yesterday off, the Nets are tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 110-105 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves last night, who were without Karl-Anthony Towns.  They are already without Joe Harris and Kyrie Irving, so they are short-handed.  Kevin Durant played 37 minutes, James Harden 35 and Lamarcus Aldridge 34 last night.

Chicago already crushed Brooklyn 118-95 at home in their first and only meeting this season.  The Nets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Brooklyn is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* Alabama/Gonzaga ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama +9.5

Alabama is really getting disrespected here.  The Crimson Tide are one of the best teams in the country, and oddsmakers are asking Gonzaga to win by double-digits Saturday to beat us.  That's asking too much.

Gonzaga has shown vulnerabilities in its last two games.  They lost outright to Duke as 9-point favorites, then came back with just a 9-point win over Tarleton State as 31-point favorites.  Now they are up against an Alabama team that definitely has some of the best guards in the country that will be hard to deal with.

Alabama is 6-1 this season with a 4-point loss to Iona in upset fashion.  But the other six games have been very impressive in going 5-1 ATS in those six games.  That includes a 32-point win over Miami, a 9-point win over a good Drake team, a 16-point win over a good South Dakota State team, a 27-point win over a good Oakland team and a 29-point win over a quality Louisiana Tech team.  Those aren't big names, but they are some of the better teams in their mid-major conferences.

Alabama is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good rebounding teams that average 40 or more boards per game.  Nate Oats is 11-2 ATS when the total is 160 or higher as the coach of Alabama.  Mark Few is 1-8 ATS after two straight games forcing 8 or fewer turnovers as the coach of Gonzaga.  Take Alabama Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Line Mistake on Colorado State -4

Colorado State is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  They returned all five starters this season from a team that barely missed out on the NCAA Tournament last year.  They are on a mission to get to the big dance this year, and a win over St. Mary's would go a long way.

The Rams have handled their business thus far in their 8-0 start that has seen them outscore opponents by 18.1 points per game.  They beat Creighton by 14 and Oral Roberts by 29, two NCAA Tournament teams from last year.  They are coming off a 31-point win over Arkansas-Little Rock and have had the last two days off.  

St. Mary's will be playing its 2nd road game in 3 days after a narrow win at Utah State, 60-58 on Thursday.  Playing in altitude here will be tough for the Gaels.  It will also be their 6th game in 13 days.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2

Saint Louis is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-1 SU & 5-2 ATS start this season with their only loss coming on the road to Memphis.  They brought back almost everyone from last year and a ton of talent for Travis Ford.  And they have impressive road wins over Stephen F. Austin and Boise State in their last two games coming in.

UAB is getting way too much respect after opening 6-2 SU & 5-1-1 ATS against a soft schedule.  They lost to the two best teams they faced in South Carolina and San Francisco, neither of which are as good as Saint Louis.  And the six wins have come against suspect competition as they have been a double-digit favorite in all six.

Saint Louis has a huge home-court advantage and is 4-0 at home this season while winning by 41.8 points per game.  The Billikens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference home games.  Saint Louis is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 home games overall.  Take Saint Louis Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on SIU-Edwardsville +10

SIU-Edwardsville is just 2-5 SU this season but all five losses were decided by 13 points or less and they have faced some stiff competition.  They only lost by 11 at Marquette as 21-point dogs, upset Youngstown State on the road as 5-point dogs and only lost at Creighton by 5 as 21-point dogs.

Now SIU-Edwardsville is catching 10 points against a down Bradley team that is just 3-5 this season with two wins over Missouri S&T and Maine.  They lost by 16 to South Dakota State, by 12 to Howard as 12.5-point favorites, by 3 to Brown as 3.5-point favorites and by 8 to Duquesne as 2-point dogs.  They did pull the upset over Northern Iowa in their MVC opener last time out by 2, but that makes this a letdown spot for them today.

SIU-Edwardsville is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as road underdogs.  The Braves are 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  Bradley is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.  Roll with SIU-Edwardsville Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Alabama +6.5

We are getting some extra value on Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  This line opened Georgia -3.5 and has been bet all the way up to Georgia -6.5.  The books are refusing to go to 7, which says a lot about Alabama being the right side.  This barely missed being a premium pick as I was hoping to get +7.

I think bettors and books alike are putting too much stock in Alabama's narrow win over Auburn last week.  We've seen Auburn take better Alabama teams to the wire and beat them before as anything can happen in the Iron Bowl.  But the Crimson Tide survived and advanced, and now we will get their 'A' game Saturday with a trip to the four-team playoff on the line.

I think that's the key here.  Alabama has a lot more to play for than Georgia.  The Bulldogs are 12-0 and will be going to the four-team playoff, win or lose.  Of course they want to beat Alabama, but having it in the back of their minds that a loss doesn't matter would concern me if I was a Georgia bettor.

No question the Bulldogs have been impressive all season.  But they went 12-0 against the 51st-ranked schedule in the country.  They feasted on the weaker SEC East, and their win over Clemson doesn't look so good now.  Alabama played the 18th-toughest schedule in the country.  I like the fact that the Crimson Tide had to play some close games this season as they are more battle-tested.  

The Crimson Tide are a 38-41 loss to Texas A&M from being undefeated, and it's worth noting they outgained the Aggies by 143 yards in that game.  They have outgained 11 of their 12 opponents and are outgaining the opposition by nearly 200 yards per game this season.   Georgia is outgaining opponents by 212 yards per game, but again it has come against a softer schedule.  I think these teams are much closer to even than this 6.5-point spread would suggest.

Alabama hasn't been this big of an underdog since the 2008 SEC Championship Game.  That's a span of 180 games.  You know Nick Saban will use that as motivation for his players, if making the four-team playoff isn't enough already.  It will be good to see what this Alabama team can to playing with a chip on its shoulder this weekend.  The Crimson Tide are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss.  Alabama is 6-0 SU in its last six meetings with Georgia and hasn't lost by 7 points or more to the Bulldogs since 2003.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Appalachian State/Louisiana UNDER 53

Talk about familiarity.  Appalachian State and Louisiana have been battling for Sun Belt titles for the better part of the last five years.  This will be their 7th meeting since 2018 and the 3rd time in the last four years that they will be meeting in the Sun Belt Championship Game while playing twice in the same season.  

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams have combined for 54 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings, and 49 points or fewer in four of those.  The UNDER is 5-1 in those six meetings.  Louisiana did beat Appalachian State 41-13 in their first meeting this season.  While their defense was dominant in holding the Mountaineers to 211 total yards, their offense wasn't as good as the 41 points showed.  They had several easy scores set up by four turnovers by the Mountaineers.  That's not going to happen again.

Both teams live off running the football and playing defense.  Appalachian State averages 41 rush attempts and 29 pass attempts per game, while Louisiana averages 39 rush attempts and 28 pass attempts.  Louisiana allows just 18.5 points  per game, 348.4 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  Appalachian State allows 18.9 points per game, 319.6 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.

The UNDER is 14-2 in Rajin' Cajuns last 16 home games.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Louisiana's last nine home games vs. a team with a 58% completion percentage or better.  The UNDER is 36-15-1 in Rajin' Cajuns last 52 conference games.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Mountaineers last 11 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Kent State -3

It's a minor miracle Northern Illinois even made the MAC Championship Game this season.  They went 8-4 with seven wins by one score with the only exception being their victory over lowly FCS Maine.  That includes four wins by 2 points or fewer.

The numbers show the Huskies are no better than an average team to possibly below average.  They are getting outscored by 2.7 points per game on the season and outgained by 26.3 yards per game.  They have a hobbled QB in Rocky Lombardi who sat out the regular season finale in a 21-42 loss to Western Michigan in which they were outgained by 345 yards.

Kent State is one win away from its first MAC Championship since 1972 and second in school history.  The Golden Flashes have put themselves in this position by going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss at Central Michigan.  That includes their 52-47 win over Northern Illinois in their first meeting.

The Huskies racked up 681 total yards on this soft Northern Illinois defense in that first meeting.  It's a NIU defense that has just 14 sacks all season, so they get no pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Dustin Crum threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 72 yards and two scores in that first meeting.  The Golden Flashes rushed for 359 yards as a team.

Kent State is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  The Golden Flashes are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 450 or more yards per game.  Northern Illinois is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a neutral field underdog.  The Golden Flashes are 9-1 ATS in their last nine games after gaining more than 450 yards in their previous game.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

15* Houston/Cincinnati AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5

Cincinnati has all the pressure in this game.  Win and they become the 1st Group of 5 program to make the four-team playoff.  Lose and they don't.  That is a lot to deal with, and I don't expect them to handle it well.  They no longer need style points either, so don't look for them to try and run it up if they get the opportunity.  They just need to win.

Houston has quietly reeled off 11 straight victories since a season-opening loss to Texas Tech.  The Cougars have been flying under the radar.  And I'm sure they feel disrespected here and ready to try and prove a point.  They will also be playing freely knowing they aren't going to the four-team playoff, win or lose.  Look for one of their best performances of the season.

These teams aren't that far off statistically.  Houston is outgaining teams by 132 yards per game behind a dominant defense that gives up just 290 yards per game.  Cincinnati is outgaining opponents by 128 yards per game with a dominant defense that gives up 302 yards per game.  This will be a defensive battle, and I think getting double-digits is a nice value in this instance.

Houston QB Clayton Tune is also quietly having a great season.  He ranks as the 3rd-best QB in the country according to pro football focus behind Alabama's Bryce Young and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett.  Tune is completing 68.7% of his passes for 3,013 yards with a 26-to-8 TD/INT ratio.

Houston is 6-0 SU in true road games this season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 26.5 points per game.  The Cougars are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs.  Houston is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS loss.  The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Houston Saturday.