15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -128 

The Chicago Cubs are in must-win mode here after losing four straight games overall and the first two games of this series with the Cardinals.  They will take Game 3 of this series Saturday at home. 

Quintana is 5-3 with a 3.81 ERA in 10 career starts against the Cardinals.  Dakota Hudson is 7-5 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in 14 road starts this season. 

The Cubs are 37-17 in their last 54 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cubs are 9-0 in Quintana’s last nine starts against the NL Central.  The Cubs are 4-0 in Quintana’s last four home starts against the Cardinals.  Bet the Cubs Saturday. 

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Stanford +10.5 

When this line was released early in the offseason in May, Stanford was a 2.5-point favorite over Oregon.  Now the Cardinal are 10.5-point home underdogs to the Ducks this week.  That’s a 13-point adjustment based off the opener and I believe it’s the perfect ‘buy low’ opportunity on Stanford here. 

The betting public wants nothing to do with Stanford now after they went on the road and got blown out 20-45 by USC and 27-45 by UCF in back-to-back weeks.  But Stanford played without starting QB KJ Costello against USC, and he means everything to them.  And the loss in the heat down in Orlando against UCF isn’t really surprising when you consider UCF has only lost one game over the past three seasons combined. 

Now Stanford returns home where they were last seen beating Northwestern 17-7 in the opener.  They are a much different animal at home.  In fact, Stanford is a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdogs.  They have won eight of those games OUTRIGHT as an underdog.  You can bet David Shaw will have his team highly motivated off those two losses and with Oregon coming to town Saturday night. 

Conversely, it’s a good time to ’sell high’ on Oregon.  They lost to Auburn 21-27 in their opener, but came back the next week and took out their frustrations on Nevada in a 77-6 home win.  Then last week they went through the motions and beat Montana 35-3.  So this will be their first true road game of the season and probably almost as tough of a test as that neutral site game was against Auburn. 

Oregon is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games off a win by more than 20 points.  David Shaw is a perfect 10-0 ATS after two or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of Stanford.  Stanford is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three meetings with Oregon, outscoring them by a combined 84 points in those three meetings.  The Cardinal are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss.  Bet Stanford Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +39.5 

This is one of my favorite spots to fade Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are in a SEC sandwich game here.  They just won their SEC opener last week at South Carolina, and now they step out of conference for a game against Southern Miss before dipping back into SEC action next week against Ole Miss.  They won’t be fully invested in this game, which will make it tough to cover this massive 39.5-point spread. 

Alabama is fortunate not to be 0-3 ATS this season.  They only led Duke 14-3 at halftime as 33.5-point favorites but outscored them 28-0 in the second half to cover.  Then they failed to cover as 55.5-point favorites against New Mexico State and as 26-point favorites against South Carolina in their two games since.  This is another inflated number simply because it’s Alabama. 

There’s been several concerns about Alabama despite the easy schedule thus far.  Their rushing attack only produced 145 yards on 42 carries against Duke for 3.5 yards per carry.  They only had 76 rushing yards on 25 attempts against South Carolina for 3.0 yards per carry.  Defensively, the Crimson Tide have allowed at least 100 rushing yards in all three games this season.  They clearly aren’t as strong at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball as they have been in years’ past. 

I’d argue that Southern Miss could be the best team they’ve faced yet.  This is a Southern Miss team that returned 16 starters and is among the favorites to win Conference USA this season.  They’ve managed to go 2-1 to start despite playing a tough schedule that has featured road games at Mississippi State and Troy.  The 15-38 loss at Mississippi State was a misleading final because they were only outgained by 42 yards.  Then they outgained Troy by 98 yards in their 47-42 win last week. 

This is a Southern Miss offense that returned 10 starters and is hitting on all cylinders.  They are scoring 33.3 points per game and averaging 453 yards per game and 7.2 yards per play.  They are averaging 79 yards and 1.2 yards per play more than their opponents allow on average this season.  They can certainly move the ball and score on this Alabama defense that gave up 459 total yards to a bad South Carolina offense last week. 

This is an early start time at 12:00 AM EST and won’t be the same kind of home-field advantage for Alabama as it would be if it was a night game.  They are just looking to get in and get out with a victory.  Southern Miss is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference games.  The Golden Eagles are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 September games.  Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. C-USA opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.   

Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Alabama) - outgaining opponents by 1.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining opponents by 125 or more total yards in two straight games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (Southern Miss) - after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game, with eight or more offensive starters including QB returning, in the first month of the season are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1992.  Alabama is once again overvalued this week.  Bet Southern Miss Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss -2 

The California Golden Bears just got ranked after a surprising 3-0 start to the season.  They are feeling good about themselves now and getting pats on the back.  But I think this is the toughest test they’ve faced yet this season, and I expect them to fall flat on their faces. 

Cal now has to go out East for a 12:00 EST start time to face Ole Miss.  That means this will be a 9:00 AM body clock game for them coming from the West Coast.  They aren’t used to playing games this early, while Ole Miss is. 

This is an Ole Miss team that I expect to get better in a hurry as the season goes on.  They brought in two new coordinators in Rich Rodriquez and Mike MacIntyre.  Both are former head coaches in the Pac-12 who are familiar with California’s schemes.  That will be a huge advantage for the Rebels as they prepare for the Golden Bears. 

I think the Ole Miss players should now be accustomed to the new schemes that Rich Rod and MacIntyre have installed.  I’ve particularly been impressed with the improvement of the Ole Miss defense thus far under MacIntyre.  They are only giving up 20.3 points per game and 5.0 yards per play on the season.  They are holding opponents to 12 points and 63 yards per game less than their season averages.  It’s only a matter of time before this talented offense takes off under Rich Rod. 

Cal has had a problem scoring the last two years offensively.  The Golden Bears average just 23.3 points per game, 351 yards per game & 5.1 yards per play this season.  They don’t look improved at all on that side of the ball.  Cal will suffer its first loss of the season on the road against an up-and-coming SEC opponent in an early start time here Saturday. 

Cal is 21-45 ATS in its last 66 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  They only beat North Texas by 6 as 14-point home favorites last week.  They were outgained by both Washington and North Texas despite winning those games.  Their luck runs out this weekend.  Take Ole Miss Saturday. 

20* Auburn/Texas A&M CBS No-Brainer on Texas A&M -3.5 

I like the fact that Texas A&M is battle-tested already having lost 10-24 at Clemson as 16.5-point underdogs to cover the spread.  The Aggies were only outgained by 100 yards by the Tigers in that tough atmosphere.  They handled their business with blowout wins over Texas State and Lamar and covered the spread in both games.  Now sitting at 2-1 this season, this game is very important to them in their SEC opener. 

Adding to the motivation for the Aggies is the fact that they want revenge from a 24-28 road loss at Auburn last year.  Texas A&M led that game 24-7 in the 4th quarter, but gave up 21 unanswered points to lose a heartbreaker.  The Aggies feel like they gave that game away as they were clearly the better team and outgained Auburn by 145 yards in the loss. 

Now the Aggies are back home at Kyle Field with home of the best home-field advantages in the country.  Auburn freshman QB Bo Nix hasn’t seen an atmosphere as hostile as this one.  Nix is only completing 52.4% of his passes on 84 attempts this season, so accuracy is an issue.  I expect him to have his worst performance of the season thus far Saturday. 

No question the Aggies have the clear advantage at quarterback with Kellen Mond in this one.  Mond is completing 65% of his passes and has accounted for seven total touchdowns already.  Mond has certainly played a lot better at home than he has on the road in his career.  And his mobility will be a huge asset against an Auburn defensive line that is clearly their strength. 

The 12th man at Kyle Field has been a problem for opponents recently.  The Aggies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Texas A&M is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game.  The Aggies are 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 September games.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Texas A&M Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte +42 

The Clemson Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country and the defending national champs.  With that distinction comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that are very tough to live up to.  Clemson is fortunate not to be 0-3 ATS this season, but because they are 2-1 ATS they are being overvalued this week. 

Clemson beat Georgia Tech by 38 as 36.5-point favorites in the opener.  Georgia Tech failed going into the end zone at the 1-yard line which proved to be the difference in covering or not.  Clemson then failed to cover as 16.5-point favorites in a 14-point win over Texas A&M.  And last week Clemson never led by more than 28 as 28-point favorites against Syracuse, but got a breakaway 57-yard run with 48 seconds left to win by 35 when they were just trying to run out the clock. 

Now this is a terrible spot for Clemson.  It’s a ACC sandwich spot.  They were sky high last week in their ACC opener at Syracuse, and now they have an ACC game at North Carolina on deck next week.  They won’t have their full focus here against Charlotte in this non-conference game, which is going to make it extremely difficult for them to cover this massive 42-point spread. 

Not to mention, Charlotte looks pretty good.  They beat Gardner Webb 49-28 at home in their opener.  And they went on the road and only lost 41-56 at Appalachian State as 23.5-point dogs in Week 2.  That’s an Appalachian State team that has been one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country in recent years.  And last week they throttled UMass 52-17 as 20.5-point favorites. 

As you can see, Charlotte has an explosive offense that is capable of scoring more points than anyone has yet on this Clemson defense.  The 49ers are averaging 47.3 points and 522.3 yards per game and 7.8 yards per play this season.  They have shown tremendous balance with 297 rushing yards per game and 7.1 per carry, and 226 passing yards per game and 9.0 yards per attempt.  I believe the 49ers are one of the single-most underrated teams in all of college football based on what I’ve seen so far. 

Dabo Swinney is 1-8 ATS in home games after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games as the coach of Clemson.  His teams are only winning by 8.4 points per game in this spot.  Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  Clemson is 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference games. 

Plays against favorites of 31.5 or more points (Clemson) - outgaining opponents by 1.0 or more yards per play, after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in two consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road teams (Charlotte) - an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 or more yards per play against a team with an excellent defense allowing 4.2 or fewer yards per play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 37-11 (77.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Charlotte Saturday. 

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa -3 

There’s a reason a 1-2 Tulsa team is favored over a 3-0 Wyoming team Saturday.  And if not for the records, Tulsa would be a much bigger home favorite.  But I think we are getting a ton of value here because of the records on Tulsa, and that’s why I’ve made this my 25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR.  This game has blowout written all over it. 

Tulsa’s two losses are against Michigan State and Oklahoma State.  And they went on the road and beat San Jose State by 18 as 6-point favorites in their lone win.  They have faced a brutal schedule thus far, and I came away impressed by the losses to Michigan State and Oklahoma State as well. 

Tulsa actually led Oklahoma State 21-20 in the second half before eventually losing 21-40 last week.  They deserved to cover the 13.5-point spread, but Oklahoma State busted a long run in the final minutes when they basically could have kneeled on it.  It was much closer than that 19-point margin would indicate.  They also lost 7-28 at Michigan State to cover the 23.5-point spread, and they held the Spartans to just 303 total yards in the loss. 

Tulsa’s offense is better than it has shown due to the tough schedule, but the defense has really impressed me the most.  The Golden Hurricane are only allowing 28.0 points and 386 yards per game this season.  They are one of the most improved defensive teams in the country the last few years.  They are holding opponents to 61 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play less than their season averages this season. 

Wyoming is overvalued due to being 3-0.  Their win over Missouri in the opener at home was a fluke.  They were outgained by 148 yards and had over a 20-point swing in turnovers go in their favor.  They beat Texas State 23-14 on the road the next week, but were outgained by 151 yards in another fluky win.  And we’ve seen how bad Texas State has been against everyone else this year.  Then last week they only beat Idaho 21-16 at home as 27.5-point favorites.  They were outgained by 16 yards by Idaho! 

Wyoming could easily be 0-3 instead of 3-0 when you consider they were outgained in all three games.  They are getting outgained by 105 yards per game on the season now.  Their offense is averaging 66 yards per game and 0.5 yards per play less than their opponents average allowing.  Their defense is giving up 95 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play more than their opponents normally average. 

Tulsa hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2016 and that’s a huge goal of theirs this year.  They realize this home game against Wyoming is a must-win for them if they want to go bowling.  I have no doubt they will be ‘all in’ Saturday to try and get a win.  Meanwhile, Wyoming is feeling fat and happy after that Missouri win in the opener, and they were fortunate not to get upset by both Texas State and Idaho in the two games since.  Tulsa is a much different animal than those two teams. 

The Golden Hurricane are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.  Tulsa is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games off an ATS loss.  Wyoming is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 September games.  The home team has won four of the five meetings between these teams in this all-time series.  Bet Tulsa Saturday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-121) 

No team has been better than the Milwaukee Brewers down the stretch as they try and make the postseason.  They are 14-2 in their last 16 games overall and have won 10 of those games by multiple runs. 

The Brewers have a huge edge on the mound today behind Brandon Woodruff, who is a perfect 9-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in 12 home starts this season.  He pitched 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball in a 3-1 win over the Pirates in his last start against them on August 7th. 

Trevor Williams is 7-7 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Williams has been victimized of late, going 0-1 with an 8.36 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three starts.  He gave up 6 runs in 5 innings of a 3-8 loss to the Brewers in his last start against them on June 29th. 

The Pirates are 5-25 in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Pittsburgh is 0-7 in its last seven games off a loss.  The Pirates are 0-5 in Williams’ last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Brewers are 11-1 in Woodruff’s 12 home starts this season.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Sunday. 

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Chargers -3 

The Chargers should be 2-0 after blowing the game in Detroit last week.  They outgained the Lions by 85 yards and fumbled at the 1-yard line going in for a score.  They also had two touchdowns called back by penalties and missed two field goals, yet only lost by 3. I think the fact that they lost that game has them undervalued this week.  Now we are getting the Chargers as only 3-point home favorites over the Houston Texans. 

The Chargers are hitting on all cylinders offensively in the early going.  They are averaging 430 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play on offense.  They should have their way with a Houston defense that is allowing 396 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play. 

The Texans are only averaging 339 yards per game & 6.0 yards per play on offense.  So the Chargers are outgaining opponents by 1.3 yards per play, which ranks 5th in the NFL, while the Texans are getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play.  Yards per play is one of the most important stats in the NFL.  The Top 5 teams in YPP differential are 9-1 thus far in 2019. 

The Texans have great skill position players, but that’s about it.  They have a bad defense and a bad offensive line.  Deshaun Watson has already been sacked 10 times this season in two games after taking the most sacks in the NFL last year.  The Chargers have one of the best pass-rushing duos in the NFL in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. 

The Chargers own the AFC South Division, going 30-5 ATS in their last 35 games against them.  They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Texans.  The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game.  Bet the Chargers Sunday. 

15* Steelers/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7 

This is the classic ‘buy low, sell high’ game.  We’ll buy low on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are off to an 0-2 start and have their backs against the wall in basically a must-win game here.  And we’ll sell high on the 49ers, who are 2-0 and coming off back-to-back road wins over the Bucs and Bengals. 

The Steelers have played the much tougher schedule thus far with a road loss to the Patriots and a home loss to the Seahawks.  And they lost Big Ben to a season-ending injury in the first half of that loss to Seattle.  Backup Mason Rudolph is ready for the spotlight and played well against the Seahawks in keeping them in that game.   

Rudolph went 12-of-19 passing for 112 yards with two touchdowns and one interception after taking Big Ben’s place last week.  I expect Rudolph to be even better with a full week to prepare to be the starter.  He did not expect to get in that game last week, and now he can change his mentality and lead a Steelers team that will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after everyone is counting them out now. 

The 49ers are feeling fat and happy after their 2-0 start, and now expectations are sky high for this team.  They are now 7-point home favorites over the Steelers, which is simply too much.  And the 49ers just lost their best offensive linemen in LT Joe Staley to a broken fibula, so Jimmy G will be concerned about the backup protecting his blind side, especially with his injury history. 

The Steelers showed that they aren’t giving in this season by trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick of the Dolphins.  Their secondary has been their weakness thus far, and he is an instant upgrade.  I have no doubt their defense is better than they’ve shown thus far as they were one of the top units in the league last year.  Adding Fitzpatrick will only make them better.  Plus they’ve played a much tougher schedule than the 49ers have thus far. 

The Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The 49ers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games.  Mike Tomlin is 27-16 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Tomlin is 13-5 ATS in road games after two or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers. 

Plays against home favorites (San Francisco) - a poor scoring defense from last season that allowed 24 or more points per game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 23-2 (92%) ATS since 1983.  Take the Steelers Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Denver Broncos +8 

This is the classic ‘buy low, sell high’ game.  We’ll buy low on the Denver Broncos, who are off to an 0-2 start this season and have their backs against the wall as they will clearly be giving their best effort to avoid an 0-3 start.  And we’ll sell high on the Packers, who are 2-0 and one of the favorite teams of the betting public. 

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Packers.  They are coming off two huge division wins over the Bears and Vikings, who are their two biggest threats to win the NFC North.  Now they step out of conference here against the Broncos and won’t be nearly as motivated for this game as they were for those two huge division games to open the season.  That will make it tough for them to cover this inflated 8-point spread. 

Denver has played better than its 0-2 record would show.  The Broncos actually outgained the Raiders in their 16-24 Week 1 loss on the road.  And they outgained the Bears by 99 yards in their 14-16 home loss in Week 2.  They still have one of the best defenses in the NFL, giving up just 20.0 points per game and 315 yards per game.  And their offense hasn’t been as bad as the media perceives, averaging 358 yards per game. 

Conversely, the Packers aren’t as good as their 2-0 record.  They were outgained by 41 yards by the Bears in their 10-3 road win in Week 1.  And last week they were outgained by 86 yards by the Vikings in their 21-16 win.  While the Packers have an improved defense, Aaron Rodgers and the offense have struggled mightily with just 274.0 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through two games.  Things won’t get easier for Rodgers and company against this nasty, hungry Denver defense this week. 

Plays against favorites (Green Bay) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are 78-37 (67.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Packers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  Take the Broncos Sunday. 

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +7 

Finally, the New York Giants have decided to bench Eli Manning and go with first-round pick Daniel Jones.  I think this upgrade at quarterback will give the Giants a big boost in Jones’ first start and inject some new life into this team.  They knew they weren’t going anywhere with Eli, but now there is hope with Jones.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Giants win this game outright Sunday against the Bucs. 

I also like backing 0-2 teams in Week 3 because their backs are against the wall and their season is essentially on the line.  You know you’re going to get their best effort, and that will especially be the case with the Giants this week with Jones starting.  Plus, the betting public wants nothing to do with the 0-2 teams because they have looked bad, and thus there is value in backing them. 

Jones was dynamite in the preseason.  He completed 29-of-34 passes (85.3%) for 416 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions with a 137.3 QBR.  He is the real deal, and he is playing with a chip on his shoulder after everyone thought it was a terrible pick by the Giants drafting him that early.  He’s ready to prove his doubters wrong. 

A big reason the Giants are 0-2 is because they have played a brutal schedule.  They lost to the Cowboys in Week 1 and the Bills in Week 2, a pair of teams that are 2-0 with two of the best defenses in the NFL.  I like the move to start Jones this week against a Tampa Bay defense that has been one of the worst stop units in the NFL for years.  And those games against the Cowboys and Bills were closer than the final scores.  They were only outgained by 24 yards by the Cowboys and 18 yards by the Bills, but they lost the turnover battle 4-0, which was the difference. 

In what world should the Bucs be favored by a touchdown over anyone other than maybe the Dolphins?  They've only been favored by 6 or more points one other time in the last seven years.  It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Bucs after their upset road win over the Carolina Panthers last week as 6.5-point dogs.  This Tampa Bay offense has been atrocious in averaging 18.5 points, 292.0 yards per game and only 4.9 yards per play thus far.  Jameis Winston just can’t be trusted as chances are he’ll make plenty of mistakes to keep the Giants in this game.  He threw 3 interceptions against the 49ers in the opener. 

The Giants are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games.  New York is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.  The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Giants are 6-1-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  New York is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six meetings in Tampa Bay.  Bet the Giants Sunday.