Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-122)

The Detroit Tigers rank 5th in baseball scoring 5.01 runs per game which is a big reason they are off to a 52-32 start this season and one of the best teams in baseball.  Their +96 run differential ranks 3rd in the majors.  To compare, the Twins have a -11 run differential on the season.

The Tigers have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind 2024 AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.  He has picked up where he left off last season, going 9-2 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  Skubal is 4-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in five career home starts against Minnesota as well.

Chris Paddack is 3-6 with a 4.64 ERA in 16 starts for the Twins this season.  He has allowed a whopping 16 earned runs in 14 innings in his last three starts for a 10.29 ERA during this stretch.  Bet the Tigers on the Run Line Sunday.

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15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Astros OVER 7.5

The Cubs rank 2nd in baseball scoring 5.46 runs per game.  This total of 7.5 is too low for a game involving the Cubs right now.  The Astros won 7-4 in Game 1 for 11 combined runs while the Cubs came back with a 12-3 victory in Game 2 for 15 combined runs.  It should be more of the same in Game 3 today.

Framber Valdez is one of the most overrated starters in baseball in my opinion.  Valdez allowed 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 innings to the Cubs in his last start against them, and I expect this potent Chicago lineup to have their way with him again.

Jameson Taillon has been rocked for 13 earned runs and 5 homers in 8 innings in his last two starts for a 14.63 ERA during this stretch.  Taillon has allowed 5 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Houston.  

The Cubs and Astros have combined for at least 9 runs in six of their last eight meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Angels OVER 9.5

The Nationals beat the Angels 15-9 in Game 1 of this series for 24 combined runs.  The Angels came back with an 8-2 victory in Game 2 and 10 combined runs.  It should be another high-scoring affair in Game 3 today in a game that features two of the worst starters and bullpens in baseball.

Mitchell Parker is 5-8 with a 4.59 ERA in 16 starts for the Nationals this season with just 59 K's in 86 1/3 innings, and pitching to contact clearly isn't working out for him.  Parker has allowed 10 earned runs, 5 homers and 25 base runners in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  He will be backed by a Washington bullpen that is the worst in baseball with a 5.93 ERA on the season.

Jack Kochanowicz is 3-8 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 16 starts for the Angels this season.  He has just 59 K's in 82 innings and pitching to contact isn't working out for him, either.  He is backed by the 4th-worst bullpen in baseball as the Angels have a 5.17 ERA on the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Marlins/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Marlins beat the Diamondbacks 9-8 in Game 1 for 17 combined runs and 8-7 in Game 2 for 15 combined runs. The Marlins and Diamondbacks have now combined for at least 10 runs in six of their last eight meetings.  It should be another slug fest today given that these are two of the worst starters in baseball.

Cal Quantrill is 3-7 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 15 starts for the Marlins this season.  Quantrill is 0-3 with a 6.46 ERA in six career starts against Arizona, allowing 22 earned runs and 7 homers in 30 2/3 innings.  When he departs, he is backed by the 9th-worst bullpen in baseball as the Marlins have a 4.41 ERA as a team.

The Diamondbacks have the 3rd-worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.22 ERA.  Eduardo Rodrizuez is 3-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 13 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.  He is 2-1 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in three career starts against the Marlins, allowing 10 earned runs and 25 hits in 15 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.