Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Portland State/Eastern Washington OVER 148.5

Eastern Washington is 12-5 OVER in all lined games this season.  The Eagles rank 115th in adjusted tempo, 159th in adjusted offense and just 295th in adjusted defense.  They are scoring 76.9 points per game and allowing 83.3 points per game this season.  

The Eagles and their opponents have combined for at least 150 points in 14 of their 18 games this season.  This total of 148.5 is very low for a game involving Eastern Washington.

Portland State also prefers to play fast ranking 121st in adjusted tempo.  The Vikings and their opponents have combined for at least 148 points in 12 of their 16 games this season.  I'm projecting this total should be 152, so we are getting some value here with the OVER.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

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15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bulls/Timberwolves OVER 239.5

The Chicago Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in pace this season.  They are as healthy as they have been in a long time with both Josh Giddey and Coby White expected to go tonight.  And Tre Jones has come up big in their place doing many of the same things they can when one or both have been missing.

The Bulls are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall including 252 combined points with the Jazz and 248 with the Clippers.  They played four under teams during this stretch, too.  Now they face an OVER team here in the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Timberwolves are 7-3 OVER in their last 10 games overall.  They have played several absolute shootouts during this stretch combining for 249 points with the Jazz, 249 with the Spurs, 245 with the Bucks, 280 with the Cavs, 251 with the Cavs, 256 with the Wizards and 240 with the Heat.  It should be more of the same here against an OVER team in the Bulls.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Cal Poly/UCSB OVER 158

Cal Poly is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 3rd in adjusted tempo, 6th in average length of offensive possession and 229th in adjusted defense.  The Mustangs are scoring 80.6 points per game and allowing 85.3 points per game this season.  This total of 158 is very low for a game involving Cal Poly, which has gone for at least 158 combined points in 14 of 19 games this season.

USCB is an elite offensive team ranking 89th in adjusted offense and 52nd in effective FG percentage.  The Guachos are scoring 78.8 points per game.  But they are a terrible defensive team ranking 275th in adjusted defense and 294th in effective FG percentage defense.  This game has shootout written all over it.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Big West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Long Beach State/CS-Fullerton OVER 159.5

Cal State Fullerton is a dead nuts OVER team due to the pace they play at.  The Titans rank 2nd in adjusted tempo and 3rd in average length of offensive possession.  They will control the tempo playing at home tonight.  They have gone for 159 or more combined points in seven of their last 10 games overall.

Long Beach State ranks 152nd in adjusted tempo and 256th in adjusted defense.  The Beach have really been an OVER team all season.  They are 13-4 OVER in their 17 lined games this season, and they have gone for at least 159 combined points in seven of their last 13 games, including 154 or more in nine of them.  Both teams will get into the 80's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on North Dakota State/Denver OVER 158.5

Denver has been the best OVER team in the country.  The Pioneers are 16-1 OVER in all games this season, and they have gone for 158 or more combined points in 15 of their last 17 games overall.  They rank 81st in adjusted offense and 361st in adjusted defense.  This total of 158.5 is very short for a game involving Denver.

North Dakota State is 140th in adjusted offense and 148th in adjusted defense.  The Bison will gladly get into a shootout with Denver.  They have scored at least 76 points in 16 of their 21 games this season.  I expect both teams to get into the 80's tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Dallas Mavericks +5.5

The Denver Nuggets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and playing well.  They are coming off a 114-97 road win at New York as 12.5-point dogs.  They have had the last two days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight as they return home to face the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors are a mess right now with Jimmy Butler's season-ending ACL injury suffered earlier this week, plus Jonathan Kuminga demanding a trade.  Their age is really starting to show.  The Warriors are coming off a 145-127 home loss to the Raptors as 3.5-point favorites in their 3rd game without Butler.

The Mavericks are 13-11 SU at home while the Warriors are 8-13 SU on the road.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Warriors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 15th game in 26 days as they haven't had two days off in a row since December.  Bet the Mavericks Thursday.

15* Big West Thursday Total DOMINATOR on UC-San Diego/UC-Davis OVER 150.5

UC-Davis profiles as an OVER team ranking 114th in adjusted tempo, 71st in average length of offensive possession, 141st in adjusted offense and 205th in adjusted defense.  The Aggies and their opponents have combined for at least 157 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.  This total of 150.5 is very low for a game involving UC-Davis, which is scoring 80.3 points per game this season.  They haven't played an OT game yet, either.

UC-San Diego is an elite offensive team scoring 80.3 points per game as well.  They Tritons rank 83rd in adjusted offense and 47th in effective FG percentage.  They will gladly get in a shootout here with the Aggies.  They have gone for 151 or more combined points in 11 of 19 games this season with zero OT games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CAA PLAY OF THE DAY on William & Mary -1

UNC-Wilmington is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Seahawks have a 17-2 record but it has come against the 358th-ranked schedule.  Only seven teams in the entire country have faced an easier slate than them.  They have also gone 5-1 in games decided by 4 points or less.

William & Mary is 12-6 against the 209th-ranked schedule.  The Tribe have only lost one game by more than 11 points all season, and that was at St. John's.  They have handled their business at home going a perfect 7-0 on their home floor while outscoring opponents by 23.0 points per game.  I'll gladly back the Tribe in this short favorite role as they are the better team and they are at home.  Bet William & Mary Thursday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin/Penn State OVER 160.5

Wisconsin is a dead nuts OVER team going 11-7 OVER in all games this season.  The Badgers rank 51st in adjusted tempo, 37th in adjusted offense and 63rd in adjusted defense.  They are 4-1 OVER in their last five games overall with the lone under coming by a 0.5 point in a 80-72 win over slow-paced UCLA and a total of 152.5.  The Badgers went for 162 combined points with Purdue, 179 with Michigan and 183 with slow-paced Rutgers during this stretch.

Penn State ranks 79th in adjusted offense but just 203rd in adjusted defense playing as one of the worst defensive Power 4 teams in the country.  The Nittany Lions recently went for 169 combined points with Maryland and 178 with Purdue, allowing 96 points to the Terrapins and 93 points to the Boilermakers.  Wisconsin will hang a big number on them tonight to lead the way to use cashing this OVER ticket.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Heat/Blazers OVER 236.5

The Miami Heat are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the NBA in pace and are as healthy as they have been all season.  The Heat are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall going for 133 or more combined points in all six games.  They went for 248 with the Suns, 242 with the Thunder, 247 with the Warriors and 247 with the Kings.  This total of 236.5 is short for a game involving the Heat right now.

The Blazers are getting healthy and have upped the tempo when that's the case.  They still rank 8th in pace despite all the guys they have been missing this season.  Deni Avidja (26.2 PPG) and Shaedon Sharpe (21.8 PPG) are both healthy, and they recently got Jerami Grant (19.9 PPG) and Jrue Holiday (15.1 PPG) back in the lineup.  Both are questionable tonight but should be good to go after having the last three days off.

This will be a rematch from one of the biggest shootouts of the season when the Heat beat the Blazers 136-131 at home on November 8th for 267 combined points.  Avidja had 33 points and Sharpe 21 for the Blazers, while seven different players scored in double figures for the Heat.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.