Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Wisconsin/Michigan UNDER 130.5 

Two of the best defensive teams in the country square off when Wisconsin visits Michigan in a Big Ten battle Thursday night.  The Wolverines are 17th in adjusted defense, while the Badgers rank 23rd in the same category. 

Wisconsin is 10-3 UNDER in all road games this season.  They are scoring just 59.4 points per game and shooting 39.1% as a team away from home.  But they have been great defensively on the road still, allowing 63.1 points per game and 41.4% shooting, so their defense definitely travels. 

Michigan has really clamped it down defensively of late, which is the biggest reason for its 7-1 run over its last eight games.  The Wolverines have allowed 68 or fewer points in nine straight games and are giving up just 58.5 points per game in their last four. 

Wisconsin and Michigan have combined for 127 or fewer points in four of their last five meetings.  Wisconsin is 9-0 UNDER In its last nine road games with a total of 130 to 134.5 points.  The UNDER is 40-11 in Badgers' last 51 games as a road underdog.  The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Michigan’s last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

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15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Gonzaga -25.5 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are coming off just their 2nd loss this season with a 78-91 setback at BYU Saturday in one of the best atmospheres this season in all of college basketball.  Look for them to return home highly motivated tonight and to make easy work of San Diego. 

Gonzaga already beat San Diego 94-50 on the road as 15.5-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  If they can beat them by 44 on the road, the Bulldogs can certainly cover this 25.5-point spread at home. 

San Diego is just 2-12 SU & 5-8-1 ATS in West Coast Conference play this season.  They just lost their last game by 29 at St. Mary’s, which lost by 30 at home to Gonzaga a few weeks back. 

Gonzaga is 11-2 ATS in home games vs. a bad team that wins 20% to 40% of their games over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 35.5 points per game on average in this spot.  The Bulldogs are 20-10 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more over the last two seasons.  Gonzaga is 25-10 ATS in its last 35 games following an upset loss to a conference opponent.  The Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.  Roll with Gonzaga Thursday. 

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on USC +5.5 

Off two straight road losses at Colorado & Utah, the USC Trojans return home highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are a bubble team right now and could certainly use a win over a ranked team like Arizona tonight. 

Jonah Matthews (12.9 PPG) and Nick Rakocevic (11.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG) both barely played against Utah Sunday due to illness.  Both are healthier now and listed as probable.  This should give the Trojans a big boost.  They are 11-2 SU at home this season. 

Arizona is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  The Wildcats only beat the Trojans 85-80 at home in their first meeting this season on February 6th.  Now the Trojans are out for revenge and catching 5.5 points at home this time around in the rematch. 

The Trojans are 11-4 ATS in conference games this season.  USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  USC is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Trojans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above 60%.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet USC Thursday. 

20* Lakers/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +10 

The Los Angeles Lakers will be without MVP candidate LeBron James tonight after a groin strain suffered against the Pelicans on Tuesday.  Asking them to win by double-digits on the road against the Warriors is asking too much without James in the lineup. 

We will ’sell high’ on a Lakers team that has won six straight coming in, and ‘buy low’ on a Warriors team that has lost seven straight coming in.  But the Warriors are getting healthier as Draymond Green is expected to play tonight, and Andrew Wiggins is getting accustomed to their offense and should only continue to improve moving forward. 

Golden State only lost 120-125 at home to the Lakers as 14-point underdogs in their last meeting on February 8th.  Now the Warriors get their shot at revenge just a few weeks later here, but they don’t have to contend with James this time around.  James had 22 points, 11 assists and 8 rebounds in that game. 

Plays against road favorites of 10 points or more (LA Lakers) - a hot team having won six or seven of their last eight games that wins at least 75% of their games playing a bad team that wins 25% or less of their games are 44-17 (72.1%) ATS since 1996.  The Lakers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the Warriors Thursday.