Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Washington Nationals -109

The Washington Nationals have quietly gone 9-1 in their last 10 games overall.  They have scored a combined 27 runs during their four-game winning streak.  And they should get after Cody Poteet and the struggling Miami Marlins tonight.

The Marlins are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball and have been held to 4 runs or fewer in nine of their last 11 games overall.  They are 2-7 in their last nine contests.  Poteet is 0-2 with an 8.43 ERA and 1.781 WHIP in his last three starts coming in.

Joe Ross has been at his best on the road this season with a 3.76 ERA in eight starts away from home.  Ross has posted a 2.37 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in his three June starts this month.  He has also posted a 3.10 ERA in four career starts against Miami.

The Nationals are 8-0 in their last eight games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Marlins are 1-10 in their last 11 games when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Miami is 18-43 in its last 61 games after scoring 2 runs or less in its previous game.  Washington is 43-16 in the last 59 meetings.  Bet the Nationals Thursday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-135)

The Houston Astros are putting up the best offensive numbers in baseball this season.  They are hitting .279 as a team and scoring 5.8 runs per game.  They have won 10 straight games coming in while scoring 6 or more runs in eight of those victories.

Now they will feast on Detroit starter Jose Urena, who is 0-2 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.849 WHIP in six home starts this season.  He has been absolutely shelled in his last two starts, allowing 15 earned runs and 4 homers in 6 innings to the Angels and White Sox.

The Astros have a huge advantage on the mound tonight with Luis Garcia, who is 5-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in 12 starts this season with 73 K's and only 48 hits allowed in 64 1/3 innings.  Garcia held the White Sox to one run in seven innings and the Blue Jays to one run in six innings in two recent starts, which are two of the better lineups in baseball.

Detroit is 11-40 in its last 51 home games vs. a starting pitcher that averages 5 K's or more per start.  It is losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Urena is 2-20 vs. teams that outscore their opponents by 1.0 or more runs per game in his career.  His teams are losing by 3.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Thursday.

20* Suns/Clippers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles ML +106

Amazingly, the Los Angeles Clippers have trailed 2-0 in each of their first two series in these playoffs.  They've come back to win both series, beating the Mavericks in 7 and winning four straight to beat the Jazz in 6.

So the Clippers are a resilient bunch that won't be phased by being down 2-0 to the Suns.  And they won those final two games against Utah without Kawhi Leonard outright as underdogs before taking the Suns to the wire in each of the first two games in this series in 6 and 1-point losses.

Now the Clippers are back home where their fans will be very excited to see them playing in the Western Conference Finals.  Plus, I expect the Suns to relax a little, especially coming off a game-winner like they just had in Game 2.  I don't expect them to continue shooting as well as they have either as they shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50% in Game 2 yet still only won those games by a combined 7 points.

Los Angeles is 34-17 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Clippers are 37-21 ATS in their last 58 games following a SU loss.  Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.  Los Angeles is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home meetings with Phoenix.  Bet the Clippers on the Money Line Thursday.