Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Seattle Mariners -133

The Seattle Mariners had gone 6-1 in their previous seven games before losing the first two games of this series to the New York Yankees.  Now they'll be highly motivated to avoid the sweep in Game 3, and I like them to salvage this series due to their big advantage on the mound.

George Kirby is 5-4 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.095 WHIP in 10 starts this season for the Mariners.  He'll be opposed by Clarke Schmidt, who is 2-5 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 11 starts, including 1-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.904 WHIP in four road starts.

The Mariners are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a loss.  Seattle is 5-0 in its last five games after scoring 2 runs or fewer in its previous game.  The Mariners are 38-18 in their last 56 games when their opponent allowed 2 runs or fewer in their previous game.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

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20* Rays/Cubs Interleague No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -129

The Tampa Bay Rays haven't lost three consecutive games all season.  They are 5-0 in their five games following two consecutive losses this season, so they have yet to be swept.  They will be highly motivated to keep that streak alive and avoid the sweep today against the Chicago Cubs.

I'll gladly side with Zach Eflin, who is 7-1 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in nine starts this season for the Rays.  The Cubs are hitting .236 and scoring 3.9 runs per game vs. right-handed starters this season.

I'll gladly fade southpaw Justin Steele, who has allowed 5 earned runs in two of his last three starts coming in.  The Rays are hitting .300 and scoring 6.7 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.

The Rays are 14-3 in their last 17 games after scoring 2 runs or fewer in two consecutive games.  Tampa Bay is 20-7 in its last 27 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Cubs are 0-5 in their last five Game 3's.  Chicago is 2-8 in its last 10 games vs. a starting pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1.15.  Bet the Rays Wednesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-140)

The Oakland A's are 12-45 this season and getting outscored by 3.4 runs per game.  It's no surprise that they haven't won three games in a row all season, thus they haven't swept anyone.  After pulling off the upset in each of the first two games in this series with Atlanta, they are going to get blown out in Game 3.

The Braves will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep.  I'll gladly back Atlanta's Jared Shuster, who is 1-1 with a 3.78 ERA and 0.780 WHIP in his last three starts coming in despite facing the Rangers, Phillies and Mariners.

I'll gladly fade James Kaprielian, who is 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.780 WHIP in six starts this season.  He has already allowed 26 earned runs, 6 homers and 19 walks in 30 1/3 innings.  He is an absolutely gas can and arguably Oakland's worst starter, which is saying something.

Oakland is 1-22 in day games this season and losing by 4.5 runs per game.  Atlanta is 8-3 in its last 11 games after losing the first two games of a series.  Bet the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Dodgers OVER 9

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored at least 6 runs in four consecutive games and at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  They are capable of covering this total on their own like they did yesterday in a 9-3 victory over the Nationals.  But Washington has quietly scored 4.7 runs per game on the road this season and will contribute as well.

Two gas can starting pitchers go for both teams and light winds will be blowing out to center in Los Angeles today.  Patrick Corbin has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the past couple seasons, and he's 4-5 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.420 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Corbin 0-3 with a 15.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Dodgers, allowing 17 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.

Noah Syndergaard has been a major disappointment for the Dodgers this season.  He is 1-4 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in 10 starts while allowing 33 earned runs in 47 1/3 innings.  The Dodgers have a 4.54 ERA as a bullpen, while the Nationals have a 4.52 ERA as a bullpen and a 4.95 ERA on the road.

Washington is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games vs. a NL starting pitcher with a 5.40 ERA or higher.  We're seeing 12.3 combined runs per game in this spot.  The OVER is 8-2 in Dodgers last 10 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Heat/Nuggets Game 1 No-Brainer on Miami +9

Rust will be a factor for the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 tonight.  They have been off since May 22nd and have been getting patted on the back after sweeping the Lakers.  I expect them to be flat and out of sync in Game 1 despite it being the NBA Finals.  That's going to make it very difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it's going to take for them to beat us here.

The Miami Heat have beaten the Bucks, Knicks and Celtics to get here yet they continue to get disrespected.  I love that Jimmy Butler didn't even acknowledge winning the Eastern Conference Finals and MVP trophies, telling his teammates there are bigger fish to fry.  His leadership is a big reason the Heat have been able to get this far, and it's a key reason they will give the Nuggets more of a fight than most are anticipating, including in Game 1.

I also like the fact that the Heat got two days off after that Game 7 win over Boston to rest and recover, which is a big deal.  They get two games off in between games a lot this series as well, so they'll be able to recover.  I think they will be the sharper team tonight as well after having just played on May 29th.

Plays on road underdogs (Miami) - revenging a home loss against an opponent that is off a road win by 3 points or less are 32-11 (74.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 27-14 ATS in its last 41 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Bet the Heat in Game 1 Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +124

The Cleveland Guardians are finally starting to hit.  They have scored at least 4 runs in five of their last six games overall, including 20 runs in winning two of three against the Orioles last series.  I think they have the advantage on the mound tonight over the Twins and the wrong team is favored here.

The Twins have been held to 3 runs or fewer in six of their last 10 games overall, including 2 runs or fewer five times.  They won't have much success off Tanner Bibee, who is 1-1 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in six starts this season allowing just 11 earned runs and 2 homers in 34 1/3 innings with 34 K's.

Pablo Lopez has been at his worst at home this season with a 5.46 ERA in five home starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 4 homers in 29 2/3 innings.  He is also 1-1 with a 6.06 ERA in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs and 5 homers in 16 1/3 innings.

The Guardians are 11-2 in the last 13 meetings, including 5-1 in the last six meetings in Minnesota.  The Twins are 0-6 in their last six games following a win.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Reds/Red Sox OVER 9

The Cincinnati Reds are quietly hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 5 runs in eight of their last nine games overall with the OVER going 7-2 in those nine games.  They take on one of the best offenses in baseball in this series in the Red Sox, who are hitting .298 and scoring 6.0 runs per game at home this season.

The weather will help aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with light winds blowing out to left at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.  I also think both of these starting pitchers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers.

Hunter Greene is 1-4 with a 4.18 ERA in 11 starts this season with 26 earned runs and 8 homers allowed in 56 innings.  Lefty Chris Sale is 5-2 with a 4.72 ERA in 10 starts for the Red Sox with 29 earned runs and 8 homers allowed in 55 1/3 innings.  Cincinnati is hitting .299 and scoring 5.9 runs per game vs. left-handed starters this season.  The Reds have a 5.12 ERA as a bullpen on the road, while the Red Sox have a 4.42 ERA as a bullpen at home.

The OVER is 15-4 in Red Sox 19 home games vs. right-handed starters this season.  The OVER is 21-8 in Red Sox last 29 home games.  The OVER is 26-11 in Red Sox last 37 games following a loss.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.