Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Wizards/Warriors OVER 228.5

The Washington Wizards are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in pace and dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall with 253 combined points with Phoenix, 226 with Minnesota and 231 with Oklahoma City.

The Golden State Warriors broke out of their funk offensively with a 116-115 win at Minnesota for 231 combined points last time out.  I think they hang one of their biggest numbers of the season tonight against the worst defensive team in the league in Washington.

The Wizards and Warriors have amazingly combined for at least 232 points in each of their last eight meetings.  That makes for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 228.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

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15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on Santa Clara +15.5

The Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Bulldogs are shockingly 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are consistently laying too many points, and that's the case again tonight.

Gonzaga is coming off a 97-89 (OT) road loss at Oregon State as 9-point favorites on Thursday.  The Bulldogs will be on tired legs after having just one day to recover in between games.

I love the spot for Santa Clara.  After winning three straight games including impressive wins over Oregon State and San Francisco by 23, they were in a sandwich spot.  They lost outright at Loyola-Marymount as 4.5-point favorites on Thursday.  They were clearly looking ahead to this game against Gonzaga.

In nine road/neutral games, the Broncos have just one loss by more than 7 points.  They beat Saint Louis, TCU and Bradley on neutrals, pulled the upset of McNeese State and only lost by 3 at San Francisco.  They will hang within the number today.  Bet Santa Clara Saturday.

15* C-USA PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico State +7.5

The books and the betting public continue to underestimate the New Mexico State Aggies.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country going 8-1 SU in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming on the road to Texas.

The 89-83 win at New Mexico as 20-point underdogs prior to the Texas loss should have let everyone know this team is legit.  The Aggies have reeled off seven consecutive victories since that Texas loss with four of them coming by 28 points or more.  That includes a 30-point win over LA Tech as 2-point dogs and a 28-point win at UTEP as 7-point dogs.

Speaking of LA Tech and UTEP, Liberty is coming off consecutive losses to both of them to give these teams two common opponents.  The Flames lost at LA Tech as 1-point favorites and at home to UTEP as 2-point favorites.  They should not be laying 7.5 points to a Aggies team that will likely win this game outright today.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Jose State +13.5

The San Jose State Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country largely due to the fact that head coach Tim Miles is grossly underrated.  The Spartans have gone 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

After four consecutive SU losses against a brutal schedule of Boise State (by 2), Colorado State, UNLV (by 6) and Utah State (by 7), the Spartans finally got a reprieve with a 69-62 win at Air Force. They parlayed that win in with a 71-70 upset win as 9.5-point home dogs to New Mexico last time out.  That was the Lobos' only loss in their last eight games against a very tough schedule.

While San Jose State is grossly underrated, Nevada is grossly overrated.  The Wolf Pack have gone 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with their two wins coming at Fresno in OT as 12.5-point favorites and against Air Force by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites.  They were also upset by both Colorado State and Utah State at home, and Wyoming on the road.  They have no business being 13.5-point favorites here.  Bet San Jose State Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Drake/Indiana State OVER 142.5

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Sycamores are 12-2 OVER in their last 14 games overall. In those 14 lined games, they have combined for at least 157 or more points with their opponents in 13 of them.  

That makes for a 13-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 142.5-point total.  So this total of 142.5 is low for a game involving the Sycamores right now.  Indiana State ranks 5th in adjusted tempo and 304th in adjusted defense.

While Drake likes to play much slower, Indiana State will control the tempo playing at home.  The Sycamores gave up 118 points to Bradley in regulation in their last game, and Drake is in line for its best offensive output of the season today to carry the way in us cashing this OVER 142.5 ticket.  

Drake and Indiana State have combined for 164, 142 and 165 points in their last three meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oral Roberts/South Dakota State OVER 160

South Dakota State likes to play fast ranking 79th in adjusted tempo.  The Jackrabbits are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall with 159 or more combined points in five of their last six games.  They are coming off a 109-73 home win over North Dakota for 182 combined points.

Oral Roberts also likes to play fast and plays zero defense.  The Golden Eagles rank 120th in adjusted tempo and 360th in adjusted defense.  The OVER is 5-0 in Golden Eagles' last five games overall with 160 or more combined points in four of those five games, and 157 in the other.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +7

The Iowa State Cyclones are in the ultimate letdown spot.  After escaping with a 85-84 (OT) road win at Texas Tech, the Cyclones came back home and took down their biggest rivals in the Kansas Jayhawks 74-57 on Wednesday.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat West Virginia today, and I expect them to come out flat.

The Mountaineers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  First-year head coach Darian DeVries parlayed his success at Drake into the job in Morgantown.  And he is already winning getting the Mountaineers to 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS this season.

That includes 8-1 SU at home where the Mountaineers have beaten Oklahoma State by 19 and Georgetown by 13.  They have also gone on the road and beaten Gonzaga and Arizona on a neutral, as well as Kansas and Colorado outright in true road games as underdogs.  This team is much better than they get credit for.  

The Mountaineers are 8-2 SU & 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Cyclones as they clearly have their number.  That includes 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings as Morgantown is one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the country.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Notre Dame -3

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  After opening 4-1 this season, the Fighting Irish lost their best player in Markus Burton (19.0 PPG).  They promptly lost their next five games.

It's no surprise that since getting Burton back in the lineup, the Fighting Irish have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 1 against UNC, by 1 at NC State and by 8 at Duke before crushing Boston College by 18.  They remain undervalued as only 3-point road favorites over Syracuse today.

Notre Dame beat Syracuse 69-64 at home in their first meeting this season despite not having Burton.  Having him back will allow them to complete the season sweep with ease today.  This is a struggling Syracuse team that is 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in its last eight games overall.  

Forward Donnie Freeman (13.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG) is questionable for the Orange today.  Freeman had 20 points and 11 rebounds in that first meeting with the Fighting Irish.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE MONTH on North Dakota State/South Dakota OVER 170

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team going 14-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 3rd in adjusted tempo, 97th in adjusted offense and 355th in adjusted defense.

Two games back the Coyotes lost 119-104 in regulation at St. Thomas for 223 combined points.  They have combined for at least 174 points with their opponents in five of their last six games.

While North Dakota State likes to play slow, South Dakota will control the tempo playing at home.  The Bison are 39th in adjusted offense and 277th in adjusted defense.  They still profile as an OVER team going 12-5 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier +10

I love this spot in conference play.  I love revenge-minded underdogs on the road after losing at home to their opponent in their first meeting this season.  Xavier fits the bill after losing 72-70 at home to Marquette as 4.5-point dogs on December 21st.  Now the Musketeers are catching a whopping 10 points in the rematch, and it's too much.

What makes me like this value even more is the fact that Xavier was without its best player in Zach Freemantle (16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG) in that first meeting with Marquette.  Having him back healthy for the rematch will make a huge difference.

The Golden Eagles have been living on the edge here of late and have gone 6-1 SU but just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat DePaul by 2, Georgetown by 8, Creighton by and Xavier by 2 during this stretch.  Their luck may run out today, and asking them to win by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Xavier Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Arizona/Texas Tech OVER 150.5

Arizona is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Wildcats rank 51st in adjusted tempo, 59th in average length of offensive possession and 16th in offensive efficiency.  They like to play fast and they do it efficiently.  They are scoring 84.2 points per game this season.

Texas Tech doesn't play fast, but they are super efficient on offense.  The Red Raiders rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 7th in effective FG percentage and 8th in 3-point shooting percentage.  They score 83.9 points per game and are 10-5 OVER in all games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on George Washington +9.5

George Washington is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Colonials have gone 13-4 SU this season.  They pulled the outright upsets in two of their last three beating Dayton by 20 as 9-point home dogs and Rhode Island by 8 as 6-point road dogs.

Speaking of Dayton, George Mason just pulled the upset by 8 at Dayton as 7.5-point dogs last time out.  I think this is a letdown spot for the Patriots, who have another big game on deck against St. Bonaventure on the road.  The Patriots failed to cover in each of their last two home games beating Richmond by 6 as 12-point favorites and UMass by 7 as 11-point favorites.  Asking them to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet George Washington Saturday.

15* Houston/UCF Big 12 Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 137.5

UCF is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Knights rank 40th in adjusted tempo, 31st in average length of offensive possession and 61st in offensive efficiency.  They will control the tempo playing at home against the Houston Cougars today.

The OVER is 11-3 in UCF's last 14 games overall.  The Knights and their opponents have combined for at least 149 points in 11 of those 14 games.

The Houston Cougars have played four of their last five Big 12 games against teams that profile as under teams.  They did go for 141 combined points with BYU, which is the one team that doesn't.  They also went for 144 combined points with Kansas State.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on SMU -5

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next five games without him to fall to 4-13 SU & 3-14 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-13 SU in its last 14 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

SMU is 13-4 this season with the four losses coming to UNC, Duke, Mississippi State and Butler.  Three of those are among the best teams in the country.  The Mustangs have pretty much handled the teams they are supposed to, and I fully expect them to handle the Hurricanes today.  Bet SMU Saturday.

15* K-State/Kansas CBS ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 139.5

Kansas is a dead nuts UNDER team. The UNDER is 14-0 in Jayhawks last 14 games overall with 137 or fewer combined points in each of their last five Big 12 games.  They rank 3rd in adjusted defense and 347th in average length of defensive possession, so they make opponents really work to get a shot up.

Kansas State is a better defensive team than offensive team.  The Wildcats also make opponents work ranking 284th in average length of possession on defense.  The UNDER is 5-1 in K-State last six games overall with 137 or fewer combined points in five of them.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia +6.5

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to.  We are seeing that as the Tigers have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Now Auburn just lost its best player in Johni Broome (17.9 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG) to injury and he is out for this game.  They lost him in their narrow 66-63 win as 16.5-point favorites at South Carolina two games ago.  They were able to get by at home against Mississippi State in their next game thanks to shooting 55% and holding the Bulldogs to 34.9%.

But now the Tigers go on the road without Broome for the first time this season.  And they face one of the most improved teams in the country in Georgia, which is 14-3 SU this season.  That includes a perfect 11-0 SU at home where they have wins over the likes of Notre Dame by 21, Kentucky by 13 and Oklahoma by 12.  Bet Georgia Saturday.

15* Creighton/UConn FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 148

UConn ranks 325th in adjusted tempo and 311th in average length of offensive possession.  The Huskies profile as an UNDER team, especially since they are without second-leading scorer Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG) right now.  The Huskies have scored and allowed 68 or fewer points in each of their last two games without McNeely.

The Creighton Bluejays lost Pop Isaacs (16.3 PPG) earlier this season.  They have had to rely more on defense since losing him.  The Bluejays rank 43rd in adjusted defense and they have allowed 65 or fewer points in four of their last nine games.

The UNDER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings with 129 or fewer combined points in seven of those eight meetings.  The Huskies and Bluejays have combined for 140 or fewer points at the end of regulation in nine of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Commanders/Lions NFC No-Brainer on Washington +10

The Washington Commanders are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games overall.  All four losses came by 8 points or less, including road losses to the Eagles by 8 and the Ravens by 7, and I would argue both the Ravens and Eagles are better than the Lions.  This makes for a 17-0 system backing the Commanders pertaining to this 10-point spread.

The reason I say the Ravens and Eagles are better is because they actually play defense.  The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and the Commanders are never going to be out of this game because of that fact.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 12 defenders on IR or ruled out.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those four are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.  The Lions rank 27th in the NFL allowing 5.9 yards per play this season.

Washington is going to be able to match Detroit score for score.  The Commanders rank 5th in scoring at 28.2 points per game, 7th in total offense at 368.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Lions are blitzing a ton to try and make up for all their injuries on defense.  It worked against the Vikings, but it's not going to work against the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels ranks 3rd in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz.  He has rushed for 891 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  He scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, which was more than any other QB in the NFL, and he accumulated more EPA than any other QB on his scrambles against the Blitz.

Aaron Glenn keeps blitzing heavy with this patchwork defense.  He is going to pay this week against Daniels.  The Lions have allowed a league-high 445 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.  The Lions play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, which is going to open things up for Daniels.  In recent seasons, Justin Fields rushed for 147, 132, 104 and 58 yards against Detroit.  Hurts rushed for 90 and Allen 78.  Stopping dual-threat QB's is something Glenn has not been able to figure out.  Washington remains underrated as double-digit underdogs this week.  Bet the Commanders Saturday.

25* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Commanders/Lions OVER 55

These are two of the best offensive teams in the NFL up against two of the worst defenses in the league.  The books haven't set this total high enough even though it's the highest total of the playoffs.

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (33.2 PPG), 2nd in total offense (409.5 YPG) and 4th in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  The only important player on offense they are missing heading into the playoffs is RG Kevin Zeitler, but they have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and plenty of depth.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 12 defenders on IR or ruled out.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those four are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts down the stretch going 4-1 OVER in their final five games.  They accomplished it in Week 14 with a 34-31 win over Green Bay, but they couldn't in Week 15 with a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

In Week 16, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

In Week 17, the Lions beat the 49ers 40-34 for 74 combined points.  The 49ers even left some points on the board missing two field goals and a XP.  The only thing that stopped them was two bad INT's by Brock Purdy.  This game had 10 touchdowns and zero punts! That's the first time since 1937 that has happened in a game, and it just goes to show just how much of an OVER team the Lions are.

Week 18 resulted in a fluky 31-9 win over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings just couldn't punch it in in the red zone or they easily could have made that a game.  Sam Darnold had one of the worst games of his career consistently overthrowing receivers.  He also missed some wide open receivers.  Darnold had an equally terrible games against the Rams as he just couldn't handle the pressure of these must-win games.

Washington is going to be able to match Detroit score for score.  The Commanders rank 5th in scoring at 28.2 points per game, 7th in total offense at 368.6 yards per game and 9th at 5.9 yards per play.  The Lions are blitzing a ton to try and make up for all their injuries on defense.  It worked against the Vikings, but it's not going to work against the Commanders.

Jayden Daniels ranks 3rd in the NFL in EPA per dropback against the blitz.  He has rushed for 891 yards and 6 TD while averaging 6 yards per carry this season.  He scrambled 13% of the time against the blitz, which was more than any other QB in the NFL, and he accumulated more EPA than any other QB on his scrambles against the Blitz.

Aaron Glenn keeps blitzing heavy with this patchwork defense.  He is going to pay this week against Daniels.  The Lions have allowed a league-high 445 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.  The Lions play the 2nd-highest rate of man coverage, which is going to open things up for Daniels.  In recent seasons, Justin Fields rushed for 147, 132, 104 and 58 yards against Detroit.  Hurts rushed for 90 and Allen 78.  Stopping dual-threat QB's is something Glenn has not been able to figure out.

There's not a lot to like about this Washington defense, either.  The Commanders rank 18th in scoring at 22.8 points per game and 18th at 5.7 yards per play.  They allow 4.7 yards per carry on the ground which ranks 28th.  They play the 6th-highest rate of man coverage in the NFL this season, and Jared Goff ranks 1st in the NFL in EPA per play against man coverage.  The last team the Lions faced that played this much man covers was the Jaguars, who they hung 52 points on in Week 11.

Detroit and Washington are both aggressive on 4th downs and both have been wildly successful this season.  So these teams won't be settling for FG's they will be going for touchdowns.  The aggression will lead to more points offensively, but also possibly create some short fields for their opponents if they fail as well.

The Lions have scored at least 31 points in five consecutive games and they will get to at least 31 in this one.  I don't think it's much to ask the Commanders to get 24-plus, and I'm expecting more out of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Texans/Chiefs AFC No-Brainer on Kansas City -7.5

Note: I strongly recommend a 6-point teaser on the Chiefs -1.5/Ohio State -2 at the current lines as of Tuesday, January 14th.  Just make sure to get them both down to -2.5 or better. I also don't mind teasing the Chiefs -2.5 or better with the Eagles down to PK for smaller, or the Bills up to +7.5 or better for even smaller.

The Kansas City Chiefs haven't played meaningful football in 24 days by the time this game kicks off Saturday.  They needed the rest to get healthy after a grueling season that saw them go 15-1 in games started and finished by Patrick Mahomes.  You can toss out their Week 18 loss to the Broncos with all backups.

The Chiefs showed some life on offense down the stretch once they got healthy.  This version of the Chiefs offense that is entering the playoffs is much more potent than the one we saw all regular season.  Kansas City now has DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, Isaiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce all healthy and playing together for the first time all season.

The Chiefs put up 27 points, 375 total yards and 25 first downs in a 27-19 win over the Texans at home in Week 16.  They followed it up with 29 points and 389 total yards against the Steelers in Week 17.  The Texans and Steelers grade out as two of the best defenses in the NFL.

Kansas City ranks 4th in scoring defense this season allowing 19.2 points per game.  The Chiefs get both DT Chris Jones and CB Jaylen Watson back from injury this week.  Jones was lost to injury against the Texans, and Watson hasn't played since October 20th.  The Chiefs are back to full strength defensively, and this is arguably the best defense in the NFL when that's the case.

The key weakness the Texans have is on offense.  They were already without Stephon Diggs, and now they are without Tank Dell as well.  They lost Dell after scoring a TD to cut the deficit to 17-16 in the 3rd quarter against the Chiefs int hat first meeting.  They were outscored 10-3 the rest of the way without him and couldn't get anything going on offense.

While the Texans had a good offensive showing last week at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, that was in a controlled environment in a dome.  Now this dome team has to go outdoors with temps in the teens in Kansas City on Saturday and some steady winds.  They have gone 0-3 SU in their three road games in colder weather this season losing to the Packers, the Jets and the Chiefs.  They averaged just 18.0 points per game in those three losses.

I also think the Texans are getting too much credit for that win over the Chargers last week.  Keep in mind the Chargers were up 6-0 and looking to add to it in the final two minutes of the 1st half.  But CJ Stroud picked up a fumble and converted a crazy 3rd and long and it changed the entire game.  The Texans outscored the Chargers 10-0 in the final two minutes to take a 10-6 lead into halftime.  The Chargers never recovered, and Justin Herbert played one of the worst games of his career.  Herbert threw 4 interceptions in that game after throwing a total of 3 interceptions all regular season.  It was very fluky.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 in his career in the Divisional Round, completing 70% of his passes with a 16-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The Chiefs have averaged 6.4 yards per play in the playoffs with Mahomes at the helm.  In the playoffs, 18 straight favorites of -7 or more have won their games straight up.  I think the Chiefs still cover -7.5 in this game, but my favorite way to play it is with a 6-point teaser paired with Ohio State on Monday.  Bet the Chiefs Saturday.