Jack's Free Pick Sunday: San Antonio Spurs -7

The San Antonio Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing their last two games to the Warriors and Mavericks.  Now they face one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Washington Wizards and should get right here.

Washington had to pause its season due to COVID-19.  The Wizards have been off since January 11th and won't be anywhere near full strength on Sunday.  They will be without Bryant, Hachimura, Bertans, Smith, Wagner and could be without Westbrook as well.  The Wizards went just 3-8 SU before the pause, and they will have a hard time shaking off the rust tonight.

The Spurs are 20-3 SU in their last 23 home meetings with the Wizards.  San Antonio is 15-4-1 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with Washington.  The Spurs are 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings overall.  Washington is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Bet the Spurs Sunday.

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15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois State -1

The Illinois State Redbirds will be out for revenge from a 60-69 home loss to Valparaiso as 2-point favorites yesterday.  Now they will be the more motivated team here and come back as only 1-point home favorites this time around.  They basically just have to win to cover.

Valparaiso has not been playing well at all, so that effort was the aberration yesterday.  The Crusaders were 0-6 ATS in their previous six games.  They had lost five straight games all by 10 points or more.

Valparaiso is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games off an upset win as an underdog.  The Redbirds are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Take Illinois State Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +7.5

The Bradley Braves are 9-5 this season with four of their five losses coming by 6 points or less.  So they have only been beaten by more than this 7.5-point margin once in 14 games this season, making for a 13-1 system backing the Braves.

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Braves today off their first blowout loss of the season as 8.5-point favorites to Illinois State.  They played their worst game of the season and lost by 15.  So we are getting some great value on Bradley today because of that abberation.

Conversely, it's a great time to 'sell high' on Loyola-Chicago, which has gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall against an extremely soft schedule of Indiana State, UNI (twice) and Valparaiso.  The Ramblers are feeling pretty fat and happy right about now.

Loyola-Chicago is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games following a road game.  The Ramblers are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Braves are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as home underdogs.  Bradley is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following an ATS loss.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet Bradley Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma City Thunder +13.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder just played the Clippers in Los Angeles on Friday and only lost 106-120 as 14-point dogs.  Now we only need them to improve by a single point to cover this 13.5-point spread in the rematch.  I think there's a ton of value with the Thunder today as they'll be the more motivated team.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Clippers, who have won six straight coming in.  They have a big six-game road trip to get ready for coming up after this.  I don't think we will get their best effort today, and it's going to take their best effort to cover this massive spread.

Oklahoma City is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games with a total of 220 or higher.  The Thunder are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs.  Oklahoma City is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 Sunday games.  Roll with the Thunder Sunday.

20* Bills/Chiefs AFC Championship No-Brainer on Buffalo +3.5

Now that the line has finally gotten to +3.5 it's time to pull the trigger on the Buffalo Bills.  I've been waiting patiently for them to announce that Patrick Mahomes would be playing to get the Bills at a better number.  And now it's time to pounce on a Bills team that is playing as well as anyone in the NFL over the last three months, and certainly playing better than the Chiefs right now.

The Bills are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games overall with their only loss coming 30-32 at Arizona on a hail mary on the last play of the game.  So, they've gone 11 straight games without losing by more than this spread, making for an 11-0 system backing the Bills here.  They are 8-0 SU in their last eight games overall with those eight wins coming by an average of 17.0 points per game.

This Buffalo offense is firing on all cylinders behind the play of Josh Allen.  They are averaging 34.7 points per game in their last 10 games.  Allen is more than capable of matching Mahomes and the Chiefs score for score.  But what is getting overlooked here is just how much better this Buffalo defense has played down the stretch, and that is the X-factor.  They are allowing just 17.1 points per game in their last eight games overall.  They just held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 3 points last week, which is no small feat.

The Kansas City Chiefs are just barely surviving, but their luck runs out here.  The Chiefs haven't won any of their last nine games by more than 6 points.  You have to go all the way back to November 1st against the Jets to find the last time they covered a spread.  They are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They've just been very fortunate in close games with each of their last eight wins coming by 6 points or less.

Now the Chiefs are dealing with an injury to their best player in Mahomes, and I'm not even talking about the concussion he sustained against the Browns last week.  It's the foot injury that clearly hampered him the rest of the game after it happened, and it was the start of the Browns comeback.  When Mahomes doesn't have his mobility, he's much easier to defend.  And I see that being the case here for this rapidly improving Bills defense.

A big reason the Chiefs have struggled to put teams away is because they have been one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL.  They are fine moving the ball between the 20's, but terrible at turning it into touchdowns.  And the Bills have what it takes to buckle down and hold them to field goals when they do get in the red zone.  Conversely, the Chiefs are terrible in the red zone defensively, and Josh Allen has been great at getting touchdowns and not turning the ball over when he gets inside the 20.

The Bills are 7-2 SU against teams with winning records this season.  Yes, one of those losses came to the Chiefs 17-26 on October 19th, but that was a terrible spot for the Bills.  They were on just five days' rest as the game had to be rescheduled due to COVID.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs were on seven days' rest in that contest.  It was a huge advantage for the Chiefs.  The Bills have been a different team since in winning 10 of their last 11 games with their only loss by 2 points.

Now the Bills are in the favorable situation here having played on Saturday while the Chiefs played on Sunday last week.  The Bills are the team with the extra day of rest, and they got to watch the Chiefs play on Sunday.  That's a nice rest and preparation advantage for the red hot road team here.

The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  The Chiefs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games on grass.  These four trends combine for a 30-1 system backing Buffalo.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Bills Sunday.

25* NFL Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers -3

The Green Bay Packers fought hard to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs down the stretch.  They knew that their four previous NFC Championship Game were all on the road, which is a big reason they lost them.  But they handled their business down the stretch to get this game at home, and now the fruits of their labor will pay off as they'll be going to the Super Bowl after a win and cover against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

Nobody has played better than the Packers down the stretch.  They are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven victories coming by 7 points or more and by an average of 14.9 points per game.  That includes their 32-18 win over the Rams last week in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score.  The Packers outgained the Rams 484 to 244 in that game, or by 240 total yards.

Many came into that game believing the Rams had the best defense in the NFL.  Well, Aaron Rodgers and company did whatever they wanted in that game.  They rushed for 188 yards and passes for 296 more.  And getting the ground game going has been a big key to Green Bay's success down the stretch.  They have quietly rushed for 120 or more yards in six of their last seven games.  They also have one of the best defenses they've had in years, holding opponents to 22.8 points, 328.8 yards and 217 passing yards per game this season.

This will be the 3rd straight road game for the Bucs in the playoffs, which is always a tough situation.  And it's a warm weather team here traveling up north for a game in the cold.  Temperatures will be in the 20s on Sunday in Green Bay with winds around 10 MPH.  I'm sure Tom Brady doesn't even like the cold any more after moving to Tampa Bay.  And his arm strength isn't near what it used to be.  The Packers have a huge edge at QB in this one.

I was on the Bucs last week against the Saints, but their 30-20 win was misleading.  The Saints gave that game away with four turnovers.  Brady did not look good at all as he went just 18-of-33 passing for 199 yards in the win.  He will need to be much better if he wants any chance of competing with Rodgers and this high-powered Green Bay offense.  And I just love this underrated Green Bay secondary, which matches up very well with these Tampa Bay receivers.  There's a good chance the Bucs will be without Antonio Brown as well.

Green Bay is 75-48 ATS in its last 123 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less.  The Packers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs. teams that outscore opponents by 6-plus points per game.  The Packers are 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS at home this season and outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per game.  Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Green Bay gets and extra day of rest here after playing on Saturday while Tampa Bay played on Sunday night.  They got to sit around and watch the Bucs play, which is a nice advantage.  Bet the Packers Sunday.