1* Free NCAAF Pick on Miami-OH RedHawks+39½ -110

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the RedHawks in Saturday's showdown in Columbus against the No. 6 ranked Ohio State. 

A lot of people thought the Buckeyes would struggle against their old coordinator in Luke Fickell when Ohio State hosted Cincinnati in Week 2. That didn't happen. Buckeyes won 42-0 as a 14.5-point favorite. Same thing last week. People thought they would struggle at Indiana. They won 51-10 as a 17.5-point favorite. 

Now the Buckeyes host Miami (OH), who just lost by 23 at Cincinnati. They won't blink an eye here. To them Ohio State should win by 40 easy. They probably could, if they wanted to. That's the key here. 

This is the ultimate letdown spot after getting up for their first 3 games, even though they were a big favorite in Week 1, teams seem to get up for Lane Kiffin's FAU squad. They also have a big time road game on deck against a Nebraska team people can't stop talking about.

This is the ideal spot for Ryan Day to get the starters out early and ready for the Big Ten portion of the schedule. As for Miami (OH), they got a bunch of kids who dreamed of playing for Ohio State. This not just another game for them. I think they do enough here to lose by fewer than 40. 

There's also a big time system in play favoring a fade of the Buckeyes. Favorites of 31.5 or more points who are a strong offensive team (5.8+ yards/play), who have outgained their last two opponents by 125 or more total yards are 4-23 (15%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Miami (OH)! 

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4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on UMass +17 -110

I think there's more than enough value here to take a flyer on the Minutemen. Far from an easy play to stomach given UMass has not covered in any of their games and lost outright by 25 as a 5.5-point home favorite to Southern Illinois. 

However, the books know the betting public will want absolutely nothing to do with this UMass team, so we can feel good about the number we are getting. I just don't feel like a road win over Kansas justifies the Chanticleers laying 3 scores on the road. 

As bad as UMass is defensively, Coastal Carolina is far from an offensive juggernaut. They only put up 23 at home to E Michigan and a mere 12 in the win against the Jayhawks. Not to mention, the Chanticleers got the defending Sun Belt champs on deck in Appalachian State. Take UMass!

4* NCAAF - Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford +10½ -105

I think this is the ideal spot to jump on Stanford after a couple of really ugly road losses to USC and UCF. I think it has the perception on Stanford way down going into this game. They didn't have K.J. Costello in the loss at USC and I think they just didn't have any juice left for that game at UCF (long travel). 

I expect a different looking Cardinal team on Saturday. That could be a big problem for the Ducks given all the hype they have been getting. Hard to imagine Oregon isn't sitting there thinking about how they are going to roll Stanford. I know they played Auburn tough in the opener, but I'm not sold on the Tigers being all that. 

Stanford head coach David Shaw has been a moneymaker in this spot. With the Cardinal he's 19-9 ATS at home in the first month of the season, 35-19 ATS last 54 vs a good offensive team that's averaging 5.9 yards/play and a perfect 10-0 ATS off 2 straight losses against the spread. Take Stanford! 

3* NCAAF - Tulsa/Wyoming Total DOMINATOR on Wyoming/Tulsa under 45 -110

I'm dialed in on this Saturday's matchup with Tulsa and Wyoming. I not only like the Golden Hurricane, but I see a ton of value here with the UNDER as well. 

Tulsa's only two losses on the season are to Michigan State by 21 on the road and by 19 at home to Oklahoma State. While the final score against the Cowboys ended up being 40-19, they had a 21-20 lead at the half and were down by just 12 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. 

They gave up 506 yards to OKlahoma State, but a bunch of that was on big plays. Cowboys had a 75-yard TD run and 90-yard TD pass. Given how good Oklahoma State has looked, I thought for the most part that defense played well. Keep in mind this is a Tulsa defense that returned 8 starters from a unit that went from giving up 37.5 ppg in 2017 to only allowing 29.6 ppg. 

I think that defense will have no problem keeping Wyoming's offense in check. They only scored 23 in a 9-point win over a bad Texas State team and 7 of those came on a 72-yard pick six with them down 14-13 in the 3rd quarter. They followed that up with just 21 in a mere 5-point win over Idaho and were only up 14-13 before a 80-yard TD run in the 4th (only pts 2nd half). 

Easy for Tulsa to win by 3, but I also think the Wyoming's defense is good enough to keep the Golden Hurricane from putting up a ton of points. I see this something like 27-10 in favor of the home team. Take Tulsa & UNDER! 

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Tulsa -3 -111

I'm dialed in on this Saturday's matchup with Tulsa and Wyoming. I not only like the Golden Hurricane, but I see a ton of value here with the UNDER as well. 

Tulsa's only two losses on the season are to Michigan State by 21 on the road and by 19 at home to Oklahoma State. While the final score against the Cowboys ended up being 40-19, they had a 21-20 lead at the half and were down by just 12 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. 

They gave up 506 yards to OKlahoma State, but a bunch of that was on big plays. Cowboys had a 75-yard TD run and 90-yard TD pass. Given how good Oklahoma State has looked, I thought for the most part that defense played well. Keep in mind this is a Tulsa defense that returned 8 starters from a unit that went from giving up 37.5 ppg in 2017 to only allowing 29.6 ppg. 

I think that defense will have no problem keeping Wyoming's offense in check. They only scored 23 in a 9-point win over a bad Texas State team and 7 of those came on a 72-yard pick six with them down 14-13 in the 3rd quarter. They followed that up with just 21 in a mere 5-point win over Idaho and were only up 14-13 before a 80-yard TD run in the 4th (only pts 2nd half). 

Easy for Tulsa to win by 3, but I also think the Wyoming's defense is good enough to keep the Golden Hurricane from putting up a ton of points. I see this something like 27-10 in favor of the home team. Take Tulsa & UNDER! 

5* NCAAF Small Conference PLAY OF THE YEAR on Ohio -3 -110

Absolutely love Ohio here as a small 3-point home favorite against the Ragin Cajun's. This is the perfect time to buy low on the Bobcats and sell high on Lafayette. Ohio didn't cover in their opener against Rhode Island, despite winning by 20+, and then lost back-to-back on the road against Pittsburgh and Marshall. Two games they were expected to lose, but nonetheless there's nothing to get you excited about with Ohio. 

Key here is that this is one of Frank Solich's better teams he's had at Ohio and a lot of people have them as the best team in the MAC this year. They are going to be chomping at the bit take the field at home, where they have are 1-0 this year and 48-13 over the previous 10 seasons (12-1 since 2017). 

As for Lafayette they covered against Mississippi State in the opener and followed that up with back-to-back blowout wins and covers at home against Liberty and Texas Southern. The close call against the Bulldogs looks less impressive after Miss St lost at home to K-State and that Liberty team they beat lost 24-0 to a bad Syracuse team. 

Ohio lost by just 2-points last week at Marshall and that's worth noting, as the Bobcats are 12-4 ATS under Solich off a loss by 3 or less. They have also covered 16 of their last 20 vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg (Lafayette +27.4 ppg). Take Ohio! 

3* NFL - Vegas Line Mistake ATS SHOCKER on Jets +23 -110

I just think we are seeing a massive overreaction here with this line. I get New England is good and they won and covered on the road as a 18-point favorite in last week's 43-0 win at Miami, but the Dolphins simply aren't trying to be competitive. The Jets are down to third string QB Luke Falk, but they are no where close to as bad as Miami. No other team is. 

I know the offense was putrid in the loss the Browns on Monday Night Football, but I really like how the defense competed. I also think given how bad Trevor Siemian has been in this league and how bad he looked, Falk can't be much worse. 

We know the Jets are going to give it all as against the Patriots. There's no team they want to beat more than New England. I know the Pats are the last team you expect to have a letdown, but it's gonna be hard for them to take NY seriously enough to win going away. It could be 34-13 and we are golden. I don't know that NE scores that much. Take the Jets! 

4* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER under 44½ -110

I think we are getting some value here with the UNDER in Sunday's AFC matchup between the Bills and Bengals. Buffalo is a team that likes to win ugly. They want to wear you down with the run game and let their defense do the talking. Given how limited the offense is and how good the defense is, it's the perfect type of team for UNDERs. 

Bengals offense has not exactly looked great. Andy Dalton threw for almost 400 yards at Seattle and yet they only could manage 20 points. Last week they had almost 300 in the air and finished with 17. They have no rushing attack. They got 59 yards rushing in two games combined. 

Bills had the No. 1 ranked pass defense last year and are giving up just 198 ypg and 4.6 yards/pass attempt. I know the competition hasn't been great (Jets & Giants), but I think we can trust they are going to be good on that side again. 

Bengals defense isn't great, but it's a lot better than it was last week against the 49ers and definitely capable of keeping Buffalo from going off. Take the UNDER!