Dave’s Sunday Free Play: 

1* on Miami Dolphins +17 

The Key: Just plug your nose and back the Miami Dolphins this week.  They finally covered a spread last week in their 16-17 loss to the Redskins.  They benched Josh Rosen down 17-3, and Ryan Fitzpatrick nearly led the comeback as they just came up a 2-point conversion short of their first win.  Now they are going with Fitzpatrick this week, and this team is clearly much better with him as their starter.  He has been one of the best backup QB’s in the league for years and had some great success in Tampa Bay last year.  The Bills just don’t have a good enough offense to be laying 17 points to anyone.  They are scoring just 18 PPG this year.  This is expected to be a low scoring game with a total of just 40.5 points, so getting 17 points with a dog in an expected low scoring game is a nice price.  Bets on road dogs who are winless on the season off a home cover where they lost outright as an underdog are 25-6 ATS since 1983.  We’ll go contrarian here and back the winless team.  Take Miami.

**4X Top 10 NFL Handicapper!** Dave was the #6 NFL Capper in 2012, the #6 NFL Capper in 2008, #7 NFL Capper in 2009 and the #10 NFL Capper in 2014!  He is riding a solid 369-284 NFL Run over the long haul! That includes a more recent 123-78 NFL Run over the past three seasons! He is currently the #8 NFL Capper in 2019 and he’s on a 18-7 NFL TEAR since September 15th! Hop on board for Dave's Sunday NFL 3-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* NFC Game of the Year, his 6* Raiders/Packers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* and his 6* Chargers/Titans AFC *CA$H COW*! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get Monday's NFL pick for FREE!

6* Raiders/Packers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Oakland +5.5 

The Key: The Raiders are in a great situation Sunday.  They have 2 weeks to get ready for the Packers after having their bye last week.  And the Packers are on a short week after a fortunate 23-22 win on Monday Night Football that was gifted to them by the refs.  The Packers are fortunate to be 5-1 this year as they keep winning all their close games.  Oakland continues to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They have been an underdog in all 5 games, and they’ve gone 3-2.  They upset Denver 24-16 as 3-point home dogs, upset the Colts 31-24 as 6-point road dogs, and upset Chicago 24-21 as 7-point road dogs.  They are averaging 4.9 yards per carry on offense behind rookie RB Josh Jacobs and Derek Carr is quietly having a great season.  Carr is completing 73.3% of his passes on the year.  Jon Gruden is coming up with great game plans week after week and proving that he still has the magic touch as a play caller.  The Packers give up 4.9 yards per carry, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.  So Jacobs should find plenty of success on the ground.  The Raiders are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after leading in their last 2 games by 10-plus points at halftime.  Take Oakland. 

6* Chargers/Titans AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee -2 

The Key: The Tennessee Titans weren’t going anywhere with Marcus Mariota at quarterback.  I think inserting Ryan Tannehill at QB this week will give the team a spark in the short term.  He’s one of the best backup QB’s in the NFL and did well with what he had to work with when he was with the Miami Dolphins.  The Titans have more weapons than the Dolphins did, and I think he can get this offense on track.  The Chargers are broken at 2-4 on the season and have been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the NFL.  They are playing without S Derwin James, S Adrian Phillips, WR Dontrell Inman, WR Travis Benjamin and C Mike Pouncey.  They could also be without NT Brandon Mebane, DL Justin Jones, K Michael Badgley and DE Melvin Ingram, who are all questionable.  They just haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and they won’t this week either.  The Titans are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The Titans are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after scoring 9 points or less last game.  The Chargers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take Tennessee. 

7* NFC Game of the Year on New York Giants -3 

The Key: The New York Giants got extra time to prepare for the Cardinals after playing the Patriots last Thursday.  They were very short-handed in that game against the Patriots and battled hard for 4 quarters before eventually relenting.  Now the Giants get some key playmakers back this week in RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram, who are their two best players on offense.  And they just recently got Golden Tate back from suspension, so they have ample weapons this week now for Daniel Jones, who is proving he belongs in the NFL.  Arizona could easily be 0-6.  Their 2 wins this season came by a combined 4 points.  They have a terrible defense that gives up 28.5 PPG and 414 YPG, so the Giants should score at will on them.  The Cardinals have a decent offense but are only scoring 22.3 PPG this year.  I think the Giants win in a shootout and get more stops than Arizona does.  Having the extra time to prepare for the dual-threat in Kyler Murray is a big advantage for New York’s defense.  The Giants are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing a Thursday game.  The Giants are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +10 

The Key: Sam Darnold was one of the best quarterback in the NFL down the stretch last year as he improved greatly throughout his rookie season.  And he played well against Buffalo in the opener in a 16-17 loss before going down with a case of Mono.  He finally returned last week following the Jets’ bye week and promptly led them to a 24-22 upset win over the Cowboys.  Darnold threw for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the win.  He finally got Jamison Crowder and Robbie Anderson involved, which are the team’s two best weapons.  And we know what Le’Veon Bell is capable of.  Darnold should open up the running game moving forward now that the Jets finally have a threat of the pass.  The Patriots are 6-0, but they have played the league’s 32nd-ranked schedule as they have only beaten one team that is .500 or better.  The Jets have played the 10th-toughest schedule this year with 4 of their 5 games against .500 or better teams.  I love the price we are getting with the Jets catching double-digits at home here against the Patriots in a rematch from a 14-30 road loss with Luke Falk as their quarterback.  Darnold moves the needle for this team and is worth probably close to 10 points against the spread over Falk.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are off a home win and revenging a same season loss are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New York.