I'm playing NEW YORK on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Jays scored the upset yesterday but the Yankees will avenge that loss in a big way this afternoon. Zeuch has the misfortune of facing the Yankees for the second straight start. Paxton has won nine straight and he's got a dominant 0.48 ERA his past three starts. The Canadian beat the Jays 13-3 a week ago. Expect more of the same this afternoon. 

I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins' tough start has led to an extremely generous line, one which I feel is providing us with excellent value. When these teams last met, the Cougars were double-digit favorites but won by only six. I look for this one to also prove close. The Bruins first two games were both decided by 10 points or less. Sure, Oklahoma beat them by more than that. However, I don't put WSU in the class of the Sooners. Keep in mind this is an experienced UCLA team, one chomping at the bit to turn its season around. The Cougars, who won by only seven last time out, have a huge game against Utah on deck. Look for the Bruins to provide a much tougher game than many will be expecting, moving to 3-0 ATS their last three, after trailing by 17 or more points at the end of the first half of their previous game. 

I'm playing on ND/Georgia OVER the total. While I do respect these defenses, I also feel that the offenses are a little better than many are seeming to believe. The Irish scored 35 points their first game. Then, in their second game, they nearly doubled that, scoring 66. Meanwhile, Georgia has scored 30, 60 and 53. The Irish have seen the OVER go 6-4 their last 10 on the road, 2-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range. Yes, the Bulldogs are off a shutout last time out. However, the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons when they were off a shutout. Yes, that marked the third straight time that Georgia had allowed 17 or fewer points. However, thats a situation (when the Bulldogs had allowed 17 or less in 3 straight) where the OVER is a perfect 5-0 the past couple of seasons. Look for those stats to improve Saturday evening, as this one proves higher-scoring than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on EVERTON. Everton is the stronger squad. Off a loss, its second in its last three league games, and with Man. City on deck, Everton knows it can't afford anything but a win in this one. The Toffees have struggled on the road but have been money at Goodison Park. Expect them to play their best game, silencing the critics and winning this one by multiple goals. 

I'm playing on BC/Ottawa OVER the total. I won with the Lions when these same two teams met last week. I'm expecting the rematch to be high-scoring. Ottawa couldnt score on the road but will be able to do so at home. Stopping the Lions will be another matter. The Red Blacks allowed 46 points against Toronto their last game here. Over their past three games, they've allowed 115 points. BC's last two trips here have produced 54 and 55 points. This one eclipses the 50 mark once again. 

I'm playing on OLE MISS. The Bears may have the better ranking but I believe that the Rebels are (slight) favorites for good reason. The Bears did manage an upset of Washington. However, that win came by only a point and they haven't exactly been impressive in wins over Cal Davis and North Texas. Now, this West-Coast based team plays an early road game in the Eastern Time Zone against an SEC opponent. While the Bears are playing good defense, the Rebels have a very experienced defense themselves, as they brought back 10 starters on that side of the ball. It was almost two years ago to the day that the Bears upset the Rebels, at Berkeley. I say the Rebels get some payback. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys have been living a lie. Their games have come against Oregon State, McNeese State and Tulsa. To their credit, they've taken care of business. However, the fact remains that they were double-digit favorites for each of those games, despite two of them coming on the road. Now, however, they're stepping up in class considerably while playing their third road game in the past four weeks. I expect reality to set in. While the Longhorns came up short vs. LSU, they rebounded by crushing Rice last game. They also hammered LA Tech in the first game. The Longhorns have a score to settle, as OSU has had their number of late. Back-to-back 3-point losses in the series have been particularly tough to swallow. This is a highly motivated Texas team, one which is 5-0 ATS its last five, off b2b non-conf. games. Expect them to get some payback, covering the relatively small number and moving to 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were a home faovrite of seven or less. 

I'm playing on Atlanta. While the price may initially seem steep, a closer look reveals that it could acutally easily be even higher. The Giants are 23-35 (-8.5) in day games and 18-26 vs. southpaws. Webb has a 7.79 ERA on the road and an awful 10.21 ERA (2.026 WHIP) his last three overall. Keuchel has a 2.72 ERA at home. Keuchel tossed a gem against the Giants last season and he gets it done again here. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. Means has been tough at home all season (2.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) and he's making his final home start here. I expect him to outpitch Gonzales, who has a 4.10 ERA and 1.419 WHIP on the road. Gonzales has started against the O's twice (both in 2017) and he allowed nine earned runs, on 17 hits, in just 7 2/3 innings. Look for the O's to take advantage of a rare favorable matchup, moving to 48-36 (+4.1) the past 2+ seasons, when playing at home with a line in the +100 to -150 range.

I'm playing on Toronto/NY OVER the total. Expect the bats to come alive this afternoon. Thornton pitched well against the Yankees at Toronto last month. However, his visit to the Bronx wasn't nearly so good. In his lone start here at Yankee Stadium, he allowed five earned runs on seven hits (2 HR's) in just 3 1/3 innings. That game had a final score of 8-7, finishing well above the number. Severino's last two starts against the Jays (both 2018) produced 13 and 17 combined runs. He went just five innings in each. Making just his second start back, he's unlikely to go deep in this one either. Stanton is back for the Yanks and went deep yesterday, making an already dangerous lineup that much more potent. Yankee day games have sailed over the total all season. This one does, too. 

I'm playing on Miami/Dallas UNDER the total. Over the years, the UNDER is 21-7 when the Fish have faced NFC East teams. Those stats will improve Sunday afternoon. The Dolphins didn't manage a single point last week. The Cowboys defense will be looking to "get healthy" and to also have a huge game. While the Dolphins may not get completely blanked again, they likely won't score many either. Once the Cowboys get ahead - even before then - they'll be employing a very heavy dose of the run. That'll keep the clock moving. The UNDER is 4-1 the past five Dallas home games with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. During that span, the UNDER is also a perfect 3-0/100% when the Cowboys were off b2b double-digit wins. Expect those stats to improve here. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Bengals are going to be desperate. They're already 0-2 and they know that two of their next three are on the road - against division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, to boot. In other words, they can ill afford to fall to 0-3. Both teams have already been involved in a 1-point game this season, Cincy losing by one at Seattle and Buffalo winning by one at NY. The teams have met twice since 2016 and both meetings were decided by four points. As impressive as their 2-0 start may be, note that the Bills are 0-4 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b wins. Including the cover at Seattle, the Bengals are 12-5 ATS on the road the past 2+ seasons. With the Bills already having next week's game against New England in the back of their minds, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Lions are going to find an angry and hungry Eagles team. Philly knows it let one get away against Atlanta. The Eagles also know that four of their next five come on the road. In other words, they can ill afford to drop this one. Undefeated (1-0-1) through two games and with three of their next four at home, the Lions may not be feeling the same sense of urgency. True, the Eagles are a bit banged-up at the receiver position. However, thats an area where they're pretty deep and this is a team which likes to spread it around. Even if Jackson and/or Jeffery are out, Wentz still has the likes of Ertz and Agholor to work with. The Lions may have won last week but they still scored only 13 points. That won't cut it here. Note that they're just 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they scored 14 or less in their previous game. During that span, the Eagles are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) when off a loss of six points or less. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win on Sunday afternoon.