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Ben Burns |
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| *BIG GAME ALERT* A simply HUGE Saturday includes Ben's NBA Eastern. Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR. This is the one we've been waiting for! |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 21, 2022 Twins vs Royals |
Royals +1½ -130 at William Hill |
Lost $130.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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I'm playing KC on the run-line (+1.5 runs) As of this writing, the O/U line for this game is 7.5 across the board. It may come down to seven. Either way, runs are expected to be relatively few and far between. That makes having an extra +1.5 runs to work with a potentially valuable commodity. Though we may not need them, I believe that grabbing the extra +1.5 runs is the way to go. No question. Ryan has been great. Keller quietly has too, though. Ryan has a 1.62 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in three road starts, averaging 5 2/3 innings. Keller, meanwhile, has a 1.71 ERA and 0.874 WHIP in four home starts, averaging 6 1/2 innings. All four of his home starts were "quality." Two resulted in KC wins and another was a 1-run loss. While the Royals have had a look at Ryan (a 1-run game) already, the Twins have yet to see Keller this season. Grab the extra +1.5 runs and expect AT LEAST the 'run-line cover.' |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 21, 2022 Cardinals vs Pirates |
OVER 8½ -115 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
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I won with both the Cardinals and the 'under' in yesterday's game. (St. Louis won 5-3.) While the Cards led from "wire-to-wire," the score was still 1-0 entering the sixth inning. Yet, they still got to eight runs and I had to hang on for dear life to cash the total. I'm expecting to see more scoring today than yesterday. Quintana has been pitching well. However, the Cards average 4.5 rpg, which ranks in the top 10. They should bring him down to earth. Remember, Quintana hasn't had an ERA below four since 2016. Meanwhile, Liberatore makes his first big league start. Don't be surprised when this one hits double-digits. Consider the Over. Off a 5-1 Friday, Big Game Expert Ben Burns is SWINGING FOR THE FENCES this afternoon. Including Baltimore over Tampa yesterday (when was the last time the O's beat the Rays!) Ben is on an AMAZING $83K PROFIT RUN with his top rated baseball plays. This one ranks as one of the BIGGEST OF THE BUNCH, as its his #1 DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR. You in? |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 21, 2022 A's vs Angels |
Angels -147 at SC Consensus |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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I'm playing on LA. The Angels are badly in need of a victory and I expect them to get one. Keep in mind that the Angels are tied for third in the majors with 4.9 runs scored per game. Oakland, on the other hand, ranks 28th. The A's average only 3.3 rpg. The Angels are #3 in HR's. The A's are #29. Lorenzen was last seen beating these same A's by a 9-1 score last week, at Oakland. He tossed very seven strong innings. He's got a 3.24 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home. Montas was strong the next day. However, the Angels still won by a 4-1 score. He's got a poor 4.77 ERA on the road thus far though and he's been fortunate that his last six starts have all been at home. I say LA bounces back. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NHL | May 21, 2022 Avalanche vs Blues |
Avalanche -160 at linepros |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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I'm playing on COLORADO. The Avs were never going to win every game. So, the fact that the Blues are putting up a tougher fight than the Predators is not surprising. That said, we're going to see the best from Colorado today. The Avs have been the class of the west this season. They know this is their year and they know they need to win this pivotal game. Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon commented: "It's unfortunate, but it's 1-1," MacKinnon said. " ... we got to forget about it and move on and get back to the way we can play. We still feel like we're a great team. We have to forget about it and move on." I think, years past, we might dwell on it and get down on ourselves and each other. We just got to pick each other up and move on and stay positive. We still believe we can get this thing done and win the series." I expect MacKinnon to lead by example. The last time the Avs were off a 3-goal loss, they put up seven in their next game. They're 5-1 their last six, when off a home loss of three or more goals. They'll be better and they'll get it done. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | May 21, 2022 Padres vs Giants |
Giants -134 at William Hill |
Lost $134.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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I'm playing on SF. The Padres won a wild one last night but I expect the Giants to return the favor this afternoon. Note that SF is 58-38 in day games the past 2+ seasons compared to a 46-43 mark for SD. During that span, the Padres were 66-67 on the road compared to SF's 83-50 mark at home. It's true that Musgrove has been pitching very well. However, his his road numbers are no better than Rodon's home numbers. (He's got a 2.52 ERA on the road compared to Rodon's 2.12 mark at home.) While Rodon had a rare bad road outing last time out, his previous three starts were quality and he'd allowed two or fewer earned runs in 13 straight. Given that type of consistency, I'm willing to cut him some slack for one bad outing. One thing I really like is that the Giants are very familiar with Musgrove while this will be Rodon's first start vs. the Padres. Musgrove made five starts against SF in 2021 alone. Speaking of 2021, Musgrove's was 1-3 with a 3.78 ERA in his daytime starts last year compared to 10-6 with a 2.93 ERA under the lights. I say Rodon and the Giants bounce back. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | May 21, 2022 Heat vs Celtics |
UNDER 207½ -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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I'm playing on Miami/Boston UNDER the total. As you are likely aware, the first two games were both "blowouts." Miami won big in Game 1 and Boston returned the favor in Game 2. Both games were played at Miami and both finished well above the total. That, of course, has the series tied and shifting to Boston. I expect the change of venue and the fact that the series is now tied to lead to a much lower-scoring affair. Yet, the results from the first two games have rewarded us with the highest O/U number of the series. Value. The Celtics couldn't miss last game. They hit 51% of their field goals, 50% of their 3-point shots and 91% of their free throws. That's not likely to happen again. The last time that these teams met here, the Celtics scored 98 points and hit 29.7% of their 3-point shots. On the season, the Celtics have scored fewer points per game at home (than on the road) and they've also allowed less. When the Celtics were tied 1-1 with Milwaukee, the next game finished below the total, a 103-101 final. The Heat weren't tied 1-1 with either the Hawks or the 76'ers but they were tied 2-2 in the Philly series. The next game finished below the total; Miami bounced back from a bad loss and allowed only 85 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 4-1 the past five times that Miami was tied in a series. Remember, these are still two of stingier teams in the NBA. Nothing comes easily in this one and the final combined score stays below the number. |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Age: 45 Background In "Outliers," Malcolm Gladwell asks the question: "What makes high achievers different?" Gladwell suggests that those at the top of their field have a number of similarities - that their upbringing (culture, family, what generation they came from, experiences) had much to do with their success. As a professional sports handicapper, Ben Burns is widely recognized as being "at the top of his field." A look at Ben's upbringing shows that he fits Gladwell's model to a tee. Exposed to the world of point spreads early and often as a child, Burns reached adulthood as the Internet was first beginning to explode, just as the first offshore sportsbooks were springing up. By that time he'd already spent thousands of hours learning and studying stats. From an early age it became apparent to family and friends that Ben wasn't a "typical" fan. At age 11, he was mentioned in a major newspaper (Toronto Star) for correctly predicting a high profile trade before the Major League Baseball trading deadline. (Winner of the contest got tickets to the All Star game.) Ben's father and uncles were always involved in a weekly NFL (ATS) pool. Some of Ben's earliest memories included that pool and his fascination with it. As soon as he was allowed to play, Ben demonstrated an uncanny ability to surprise the adults. Around this time, one of his uncles moved his casino business to the Caribbean. This was the environment which he came from. The caption underneath Ben's high-school graduation photo references Ben's love for betting on football. That's because he was famous throughout his school for annually winning the local football contest, along with the $1700 per year which was awarded to the champ. Coming of age right as the first sports books were coming online, Ben was fortunate to enjoy some success with his some of his early online sports betting endeavors. He did so well that the first shop he ever played at ended up refusing to take his hockey bets. Also, in the very early days of the Internet, Ben won an NBA playoff contest, put on by a company which was called NSS.net. The contest victory awarded him a trip for two to Las Vegas, $1000 cash, a limo at his disposal, free shows, hotel and live sports odds for a year. Not a bad prize for a kid in his early 20s. However, the bigger prize was that Ben was exposed to the world of "professional sports handicapping." Inspired by his personal success and encouraged by his peers, Ben first made his picks available to the public in 1998. Achievements in Handicapping/Sports Top Ranked NFL Handicapper From the years of 1998-2007, Ben's selections were independently documented at one of the Internet's earliest and most respected sports monitors, Big Guy Sports. During that time, Ben earned literally dozens of documented Top 3 finishes in football, basketball, baseball AND hockey, including numerous #1 titles. Competing against a field of 150 of the biggest names in the industry, he ranked as the #1 NFL handicapper in the existence of that sports monitor, in their All-Time rankings. No competing handicapping service ever came close to matching his NFL record. In fact, Ben also ranked as the #1 combined NFL/NCAA football handicapper. 10 Straight Super Bowl Winners A big part of the reason for Ben's #1 NFL titles was his annual success in the playoffs. He fared particularly well with his Super Bowl selections. In fact, from 1999-2007, he released 10 Super Bowl picks (3 Sides, 7 totals) and went a perfect 10-0. (All selections independently documented.) In the middle of that 10-0 streak, in the 2002-2003 season, Ben won with both the Bucs and the "over" the year that they beat the Raiders. That win was particularly sweet as he predicted that Tampa would win the Super Bowl in a number of national magazines, prior to the season even starting. Fantasy Legend Ben got pretty seriously into the DFS world in 2014 and 2015. Recently, he was featured as "The High Roller" in the 2015 documentary, "Living the Fantasy." A regular fixture at Fan Duel and Draft Kings live championship events, Burns has taken down 6-figure scores in football, basketball AND baseball. While many of the other prominent DFS players come from a poker background, two decades as a sports handicapper provide a unique perspective. Biggest Win of 2016 The year has just begun but Ben has already enjoyed some notable wins. His "Bowl Game of the Year," which happened to be a total (WVU/ASU "over") saw the teams combine for 85 points and 1196 total yards, all of them in regulation. Closing out the campaign with wins on Clemson AND the "over" in the championship game was also rewarding. Systems Used For Handicapping Bruce Lee noted: "Man, the living creature, the creating individual, is always more important than any established style of system." Lee was known to talk about being shapeless, formless (like water) and ready to adapt to any situation. Likewise, Burns doesn't rely on any one particular methodology. Rather, he combines fundamental, technical and situational techniques, making use of any and all data, which he deems relevant to the situation. Ben does tend to pay particular attention to the 'situational' side of things. Among numerous other factors, this includes trying to determine when (and why) a team will be extra motivated ("pumped up") to play its best and also when a team may be ripe for a "letdown." Burns has a contrarian nature and this trait is often revealed in his selections. Betting Philosophy Ever adapting, Burns is just as likely to take points as he is to lay them. Over the years, he's played more "unders" than "overs" but that doesn't mean that he won't pull the trigger on an "over" when the time is right to do so. While many handicappers shy away from playing MLB/NHL favorites on the money-line, Ben has proven that one can be highly successful by doing so. For him, it’s all about value. If he can get a team at -130 that he likes and that believes should be -160, than that's a play.
Rating and Titles of Plays Ben uses a scale of 5-10 to show his level of confidence with each play. Plays may include "titles" in order to give users a better idea of what to expect. Some of those titles include: Personal Favorite - Strongest favorite (or pick'em game) in that sport for the day. Best Bet - Strongest underdog (or pick'em game) in that sport for the day, occasionally can be a total. Blue Chip Total - Strongest rated total in that sport/category for the day. Main Event - Big play which is featured on national television. Game Of The Week/Month/Year - Top rated side or total for that particular week/month/year. |
