|
Ben Burns |
|
|---|---|---|
| Ben's "LUXURY BOX" plays are a PERFECT 8-0 in 2021. The ninth one of these special selections goes Saturday afternoon. On a 51-29 NBA run, "top rated" basketball plays are on a longterm $104K PROFIT RUN. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Dec 04, 2021 USC vs Washington State |
UNDER 139½ -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
I'm playing on WSU/USC UNDER the total. The Cougars began the season by seeing five straight games finish above the total. Their last two have fallen below the number though and I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair here. Washington State's last game had a score of 51-29. That's not a misprint. The Cougars held ASU to its lowest point total in 75 years. Note that the UNDER is 17-8 the past 25 times that the Cougars were home favorites (or pick'em) of three or less USC road games are averaging just 128 points this season. Look for the UNDER to improve to 4-1 the past five times that USC was a road underdog (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Dec 04, 2021 Northern Arizona vs Idaho State |
Idaho State -3½ -110 at William Hill |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. It's been a tough start to the season for the Bengals. However, a visit from the Lumberjacks will be just what the doctor ordered. The Bengals' sub-par early resuls have helped keep this line lower than it otherwise could have been. Idaho State beat this team in both last season's games. Both games were at Northern Arizona, too. The Bengals brought all their starters back from last year and they match up well with this team. The Bengals are 13-9 ATS their last 22, when off a conference loss. Knowing that their next game will be diffcult (road game at Cal) expect the Bengals to dig deep and play their best game of the season. Lay the small number. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NBA | Dec 04, 2021 Celtics vs Blazers |
UNDER 217 -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
I'm playing on Boston/Portland UNDER the total. The Celtics are off a high-scoring game at Utah, last night. I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair this evening. Prior to last night's high-scoring game, the Celtics had been involved in three straight low-scoring games. They only scored 88 in two of those. This will be the fourth time, over the past month, that the Celtics will have played the second of b2b games. The first three of those had scores of 173, 179 and 216. The Blazers scored only 83 points, in getting upset by the Spurs last game. The UNDER is 4-1 the past five times that they were off a SU loss as a favorite. Of course, it should also be mentioned that the Blazers will be without Lillard. Look for the UNDER to improve to 6-2 the past eight times that they were off a double-digit loss. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NHL | Dec 04, 2021 Blues vs Panthers |
UNDER 6½ -120 |
Lost $120.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
I'm playing on St. Louis/Florida UNDER the total. This is a generously high O/U line. I feel that it'll prove to too high. The Panthers have been involved in some high-scoring games recently. Those results have contributed to the high total. They don't always play high-scoring games though, as they've been held to two goals or less in two of their last five games. A visit from the Blues tends to result in a low-scoring battle and that figures to be the case again this afternoon. While their game at Tampa snuck over the total, that game still only had six goals. Even factoring in that 'over,' the Blues have still seen the UNDER go 5-1-1 their last seven on the road. Note that all seven of those games finished with six or fewer combined goals. The UNDER is also 9-4 the last 13 times that the Blues played here, at Florida. The most recent two meetings between these teams had scores of 2-1 and 3-2. More of the same today. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Dec 04, 2021 Iowa vs Michigan |
UNDER 43½ -105 |
Lost $105.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
I'm playing on Michigan/Iowa UNDER the total. While both teams have been involved in a few relatively high-scoring games recently, I'm expecting points to be hard to come by in this one. Both defenses are outstanding. They allow 17.3 and 17.2 ppg, respectively. That ranks each in the top 10 in the country. They're both top 15, in terms of yards allowed per game, too. The Hawkeyes, who were held to only seven points twice this season, figure to have some trouble scoring. The Wolverines allowed 27 points last game. However, that was against Ohio State. They held their three previous opponents to an average of just 14 points. On the season, they allowed 18 or fewer points in nine of 12 games. No team has scored more than 27 against Iowa all season long. These teams last met in 2019. The score was 10-3. Their previous meeting before that had a score of 14-13. With a heavy dose of the run, from both teams, helping to chew up the clock, expect another low-scoring affair. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Dec 04, 2021 San Diego State vs Michigan |
Michigan -7½ -108 at pinnacle |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
I'm playing on MICHIGAN. While I respect the Aztecs, I feel that they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting blown out by North Carolina, the Wolverines are going to be angry. Though they will still play more non-conference games, the Wolverines know that they start Big Ten play after this. Before doing so, they need a big win to regain their confidence. An early home game against a West Coast team is a great place to get it. While the Aztecs are certainly capable defensively, they don't have the type of offense that can keep up with the Wolverines. The Aztecs score 58.7 ppg (40.1%) on the road. The Wolverines score 72.7 ppg (49.7%) at home. They're 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they scored 60 or fewer points in their previous game. Expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Dec 04, 2021 Utah State vs San Diego State |
San Diego State -4 -120 at BetVegas |
Lost $120.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both deserve credit for getting here. Neither were expected to do so. That said, I feel that the Aztecs are the stronger team. The Aggies wouldn't be here if San Diego State hadn't beaten Boise State last week. After everything that happened to the program last year, just being here is already a big win for Utah State. Of course, they want to win. However, the season has already been a huge success. That's not the case for the Aztecs; they're hungry for more. Last season's game wasn't even close. The Aggies ran for 407 yards. That was one of the best (9th all-time) rushing efforts in school history. I expect the Aztecs to dominate on the ground again. While one could possibly overlook Utah State giving up 437 rushing yards to Air Force, this season's Aggies also gave up 362 rushing yards to lowly Wyoming. The Aggies did bounce back from the blowout loss to Wyoming but the win came against a bad New Mexico team. They're also 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While the Aggie defense is highly suspect, the Aztecs are dominant on that side of the ball. They allow just 17.3 ppg. That's the 7th best mark in the country. While they got off to a 3-0 start, the Aggies have since stumbled against tough competition, losing against Boise and BYU. All their wins, since the 3-0 start, have been against weak or mediocre teams. On the other hand, the Aztecs have beaten the likes of Utah. I'm expecting them to pull away for a double-digit win. |
||
| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
Fighting | Dec 05, 2021 Jose Aldo vs Rob Font |
Rob Font -145 at SC Consensus |
Lost $145.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
I'm backing ROB FONT on Saturday night. Analysis to follow |
||
|
SERVICE BIO |
|---|
|
Age: 45 Background In "Outliers," Malcolm Gladwell asks the question: "What makes high achievers different?" Gladwell suggests that those at the top of their field have a number of similarities - that their upbringing (culture, family, what generation they came from, experiences) had much to do with their success. As a professional sports handicapper, Ben Burns is widely recognized as being "at the top of his field." A look at Ben's upbringing shows that he fits Gladwell's model to a tee. Exposed to the world of point spreads early and often as a child, Burns reached adulthood as the Internet was first beginning to explode, just as the first offshore sportsbooks were springing up. By that time he'd already spent thousands of hours learning and studying stats. From an early age it became apparent to family and friends that Ben wasn't a "typical" fan. At age 11, he was mentioned in a major newspaper (Toronto Star) for correctly predicting a high profile trade before the Major League Baseball trading deadline. (Winner of the contest got tickets to the All Star game.) Ben's father and uncles were always involved in a weekly NFL (ATS) pool. Some of Ben's earliest memories included that pool and his fascination with it. As soon as he was allowed to play, Ben demonstrated an uncanny ability to surprise the adults. Around this time, one of his uncles moved his casino business to the Caribbean. This was the environment which he came from. The caption underneath Ben's high-school graduation photo references Ben's love for betting on football. That's because he was famous throughout his school for annually winning the local football contest, along with the $1700 per year which was awarded to the champ. Coming of age right as the first sports books were coming online, Ben was fortunate to enjoy some success with his some of his early online sports betting endeavors. He did so well that the first shop he ever played at ended up refusing to take his hockey bets. Also, in the very early days of the Internet, Ben won an NBA playoff contest, put on by a company which was called NSS.net. The contest victory awarded him a trip for two to Las Vegas, $1000 cash, a limo at his disposal, free shows, hotel and live sports odds for a year. Not a bad prize for a kid in his early 20s. However, the bigger prize was that Ben was exposed to the world of "professional sports handicapping." Inspired by his personal success and encouraged by his peers, Ben first made his picks available to the public in 1998. Achievements in Handicapping/Sports Top Ranked NFL Handicapper From the years of 1998-2007, Ben's selections were independently documented at one of the Internet's earliest and most respected sports monitors, Big Guy Sports. During that time, Ben earned literally dozens of documented Top 3 finishes in football, basketball, baseball AND hockey, including numerous #1 titles. Competing against a field of 150 of the biggest names in the industry, he ranked as the #1 NFL handicapper in the existence of that sports monitor, in their All-Time rankings. No competing handicapping service ever came close to matching his NFL record. In fact, Ben also ranked as the #1 combined NFL/NCAA football handicapper. 10 Straight Super Bowl Winners A big part of the reason for Ben's #1 NFL titles was his annual success in the playoffs. He fared particularly well with his Super Bowl selections. In fact, from 1999-2007, he released 10 Super Bowl picks (3 Sides, 7 totals) and went a perfect 10-0. (All selections independently documented.) In the middle of that 10-0 streak, in the 2002-2003 season, Ben won with both the Bucs and the "over" the year that they beat the Raiders. That win was particularly sweet as he predicted that Tampa would win the Super Bowl in a number of national magazines, prior to the season even starting. Fantasy Legend Ben got pretty seriously into the DFS world in 2014 and 2015. Recently, he was featured as "The High Roller" in the 2015 documentary, "Living the Fantasy." A regular fixture at Fan Duel and Draft Kings live championship events, Burns has taken down 6-figure scores in football, basketball AND baseball. While many of the other prominent DFS players come from a poker background, two decades as a sports handicapper provide a unique perspective. Biggest Win of 2016 The year has just begun but Ben has already enjoyed some notable wins. His "Bowl Game of the Year," which happened to be a total (WVU/ASU "over") saw the teams combine for 85 points and 1196 total yards, all of them in regulation. Closing out the campaign with wins on Clemson AND the "over" in the championship game was also rewarding. Systems Used For Handicapping Bruce Lee noted: "Man, the living creature, the creating individual, is always more important than any established style of system." Lee was known to talk about being shapeless, formless (like water) and ready to adapt to any situation. Likewise, Burns doesn't rely on any one particular methodology. Rather, he combines fundamental, technical and situational techniques, making use of any and all data, which he deems relevant to the situation. Ben does tend to pay particular attention to the 'situational' side of things. Among numerous other factors, this includes trying to determine when (and why) a team will be extra motivated ("pumped up") to play its best and also when a team may be ripe for a "letdown." Burns has a contrarian nature and this trait is often revealed in his selections. Betting Philosophy Ever adapting, Burns is just as likely to take points as he is to lay them. Over the years, he's played more "unders" than "overs" but that doesn't mean that he won't pull the trigger on an "over" when the time is right to do so. While many handicappers shy away from playing MLB/NHL favorites on the money-line, Ben has proven that one can be highly successful by doing so. For him, it’s all about value. If he can get a team at -130 that he likes and that believes should be -160, than that's a play.
Rating and Titles of Plays Ben uses a scale of 5-10 to show his level of confidence with each play. Plays may include "titles" in order to give users a better idea of what to expect. Some of those titles include: Personal Favorite - Strongest favorite (or pick'em game) in that sport for the day. Best Bet - Strongest underdog (or pick'em game) in that sport for the day, occasionally can be a total. Blue Chip Total - Strongest rated total in that sport/category for the day. Main Event - Big play which is featured on national television. Game Of The Week/Month/Year - Top rated side or total for that particular week/month/year. |
