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Freddy Wills Freddy Wills
Top 10 NFL and College Handicapper and long term winner on sportscapping network. 10 of 13 winning football seasons +409% ROI.
5.5% MAX NFL POD 83-44 Last 127 MAX NFL POD's 65% Since 2015

My MAX POD's are my signature play they have gone 65% ATS over the past 6 seasons, and 1-1 so far this season coming off a tough loss with the Panthers last week who out performed the Giants form a YPP perspective.  

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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 25, 2022
Bills vs. Dolphins
Dolphins
+5½ -105
  at  ACE
in 4h

Dolphins +5.5 Free Play 

76-49 Since 2010 on Free NFL Picks - 60.8% winners.  Don't miss out on NFL MAX POD

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2022
Kansas State vs Oklahoma
Kansas State
+14 -110 at William Hill
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Kansas State +14 1% play

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2022
Oregon vs Washington State
Washington State
+7 -110 at circa
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Washington State +7 2.2% play

Good Bo, bad Bo.  We are fading bad Bo Nix on the road where he has 6-11 record 16TD/16INT.  Last week we backed Oregon as a small favorite and they upset BYU who was ranked and BO moved to 16-4 at home 30TD/2INT.  This is a game on the road at Washington ST, not an easy place to play, and Washington State’s defense should keep this one close.  They return 8 startesr with 4+ years of experience, and I can’t see this Oregon team getting separation against a decent team on the road.  Washington State upset Wisconsin in week 2 and had an easy game last week against Colorado State which gave them an opportunity to prepare for this game against Oregon.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2022
Tulsa vs Ole Miss
UNDER 65½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Ole Miss / Tulsa Under 65.5 2.2% play

I don't think the market has caught up to just how good this Ole Miss defense is, and still brand them as this elite offense, but I think that's giving us value ot the under here.  Ole Miss will get their points against Tulsa, but at what point will they take their foot off the gas at home with their SEC opener up next against #8 ranked Kentucky.  Tulsa's defensive strength is their run defense, which is what Ole Miss likes to do the most.  Tulsa has scored 30+ points in each of their games, but have yet to play a defense like Ole Miss.  I think that's driving this total higher than it should be.  Both teams do like to play up-tempo, but I think Ole Miss will be running the clock late as this one stays under the total. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2022
Florida Atlantic vs Purdue
Purdue
-16½ -110 at Mirage
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Purdue -16.5 2.2% play

Purdue was my POD last week at Syracuse, and we clearly were on the right side as Purdue outgained the Orange 485-306, and had an 80% post game win expectancy, but unfortunately we lost on a 30 yard pass play as Purdue played zero coverage for some odd reason.  I think Purdue bounces back against a poorly coached FAU team.  FAU is known for running it up against bad teams, and struggling against good teams, particularly against solid defenses.  FAU agaisnt a top 60 ypp defense under Taggart as their head coach has gone 2-9 and have averaged only 13.4 ppg.  Purdue is 53rd and 36th vs. the run, and I don’t see this FAU passing offense being able to take advantage of some of Purdue’s weaknesses in the secondary especially on the road.  On the flip side Purdue’s offense is going up agaisnt FAU’s 104th ranked defense, which I s111th vs. the pass.  All in all it’s just a very bad match up for FAU, and Purdue is clearly hungry for a win after starting 1-2.  I think we are getting a very nice number from 20 down to 16.5 because of Aidan O’connel is questionable.  O’Connel a realtively big name, but not worth this many points to the spread, and he may still start.  If he doesn’t then I see this team rallying for a big blowout win. Austin Burton, the UCLA transfer is fully capable of running this offense and will give Purdue offense more in the running game.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2022
TCU vs SMU
TCU
-2 -110 at SC Consensus
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

TCU -2 2.2% PLAY 

Sonny Dykes returns to face his old team here, and is off a bye, which I think gives a huge edge to TCU.  SMU meanwhile had to go up to play Maryland last week in a 4 quarter battle and travel all the way back home to play their old coach.  I like the staff that Dykes brought with him to TCU and the hire of DC Joe Gillespie from Tulsa, a Broyles semifinalist twice, and beat SMU each of the last two years so there is plenty of familiarity here for TCU agaisnt SMU, but not as much for SMU other than the players knowing the scheme.

SMU has some glarring red flags to start the season starting with their run defense, which has allowed 200+ yards in each game and rank111th in ypc allowing.  Their offense ranks 90th in % of possessions ending in a TO , while TCU ranks 1st in that category.  TCU’s offense will be down their starting QB, but many could argue Max Duggan has more experience as the started and really is not a downgrade from Chandler Morris.  TCU has lost this game each of the last two times, but Sonny Dykes was on the other sideline. I think the bye week in combination with the familiarity of the players, and SMU’S weakness vs. the run, and TCU’s strenght runnign the ball will give TCU the win.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2022
Arkansas vs Texas A&M
Arkansas
+2 -110 at SC Consensus
Tie
Play Type: Top Premium

Arkansas +2 5.5% NCAAF POD

Just off the top I think we are seeing some value here with Arkansas following their near upset to Missouri State, but they were resting a lot of guys for this upcoming game at Cowboys Stadium, but also Bobby Petrino returned as Missouri State’s head coach so thought there was max motivation for them in that game.

Max Johnson took over at QB for A&M after the loss to App State and it was supposed to spark the offense, but despite their 17-9 win it did not spark the offense as Johnson was just 10-20 for 140 yards.  It got us a win and a cover, but I felt like we were very fortunate to cover with A&M last week.  Arkansas and Barry Odom prepared for Max Johnson last year when he was at LSU, which led to him being benched in the game so I think that helps here, and I don’t think A&M’s offense is able to take advantage of the clear weakness of Arkansas defense, which is their secondary.  A&M ranks 113th in epa pass offense and that has come against some suspect passing defense ranked 77th on average in epa pass defense.  A&M needs to run the ball to win games, and Arkansas thus far has been a rock against the run ranking 11th in ypc allowed, and they have been able to get to the QB ranking #1 in sacks.

A&M’s defense has been great and that will be a challenge for Arkansas, but I like Arkansas offensive line here that is very experienced and grading out as a top 5 unit overall.  Aggies are talented with 5 star guys across the board, but they have just two upper classmen on their 3 deep on the DL and 8 of the 12 are freshman.  Texas A&M also has struggled on defense when they have had to face a team that can beat you throwing the ball and passing the ball, and Arkansas ranks top 30 in both categories, but since Jimbo Fisher has come aboard they are just 1-9 vs. teams who are top 50 in rushing ypc and QB rating.  At this point are we really sure Jimbo is a good football coach worth all that money?  A&M also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 in September. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2022
Minnesota vs Michigan State
Michigan State
+3 -110 at linepros
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Michigan State +3 3.3% play

This is an over reaction in my opinion, this line opened Michigan State -3.5, and is now at +3, and I understand there are some inuries on Michigan State side, but they are questionable for the game.  This is a great opportunity for Michigan State to bounce back at home. I love that Mel Tucker is taking accountability for the dreadful coaching last week, which we benefited from as we had Washington -3 in that game, but the secondary which continues to be an issue should not be the problem this week as Minnesota runs the ball 70% of the time.  Michigan State’s defensive strength is their run defense as they rank top 20 this year in ypc and epa, and last year they were top 20 as well.  Minnesota under Fleck has always been a run first offense and when facing a top 50 run defense they are just 6-9 since 2018, and 2 of those wins came against Fresno State. 

Minnesota’s #’s look great, but they have come against on average 104th ranked opponent ypp defense, and 113th opponent ranked offense + an FCS opponent.  This is a huge step up for Minnesota who is without their best down the field play maker in Chris Autman-Bell lost for the season.  Michigan State has injury concerns as well, but I’m banking on at least 1 or 2 of those guys coming back this week, and if they don’t I still feel good with how QB payton Thorne played in the second half on the road without his top target he looked like a difference maker.  Michigan State is the more balanced team they are significantly better on special teams ranking 21st to Minnesota’s 106th ranking, and they are better at limiting the turnovers ranking 1st in percentage of drives ending in a TO.  I think this is just a favorable match up for Sparty here, and they had a top 50 offense last year, so far Sparty ranks 32nd in ypp albeit against bad competition, but we saw them move the ball well last week in the second half vs. Washington without a running game.  Minnesota just 7-8 the last 4 seasons vs. a top 50 ypp offense.  I think Mel Tucker’s players really like him and they’ll fight for him in this hoem game as a dog.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2022
Notre Dame vs North Carolina
Notre Dame
+2 -110 at William Hill
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Notre Dame +2 3.3% play

Buy low spot here for Notre Dame going up against a 3-0 North Carolina team, and 70% of the tickets are on North Carolina, but I’m not buying the hype.  North Carolina’s win against App State certainly looks better, and their nearl loss against Georgia State looks worse, but the team coming off a bye is not a positive when you start 3-0.  The bye typically helps, but it has not helped this team under Mack Brown as they have had the bye the last two years against Notre Dame and they lost both games by double digits.  They also opened up last season and lost to Virginia Tech as a favorite, and lsot their bowl game to South Carolina by 17 points.  In 2019 they also lost both of their games with extra rest losing to Virginia Tech and Pitt. 

Getting away from home should be a good thing for the Irish, and I know the win against Cal is not something that has given many confidence, but the offensive line looked great in the second half and Drew Pyne looked better once he settled in, and I actually think Pyne is an upgrade at QB over the injured Tyler Buchner.  This is a great opportunity for Notre Dame who ranks 100th in YPP offense, but has gone up against an average 28th ranked ypp defense.  Here they face UNC who ranks 111th in ypp defense, and 109th in ypc allowed, which will be a key as Notre Dame needs to establish the run on the road.  North Carolina is also 115th in epa pass defense so there will be opportunities for Pyne to open up the run game by passing on first down, which I think we will see a bit of on Saturday.

Notre Dame’s defense is also the best unit North Carolina will face.  North Carolina’s offense has looked elite for sure ranking 10th in ypp, but it has come against an average opponent ypp defense ranking 92nd.  Drake Maye has been excellent at QB, but he’s faced an average opponent QB defense of 99th. The offensive line also still has issues as they gave up 3 sacks to Georgia State, and 3 sacks to App State.  I think Notre Dame’s defensive line here will give them issues.  Notre Dame’s defense overall ranks 41st in ypp allowed, and that has come agaisnt a tough schedule that featured Ohio State yet they rank 29th in epa pass defense.  Notre Dame’s opponent ypp differential is +1.7 while North Carolina’s opponent ypp differential is -0.25 ypp, which is a huge difference. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2022
Florida vs Tennessee
Florida
+10½ -105 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Florida +10.5 2.2% play

Tennessee has never been a favorite by more than 7 points agaisnt Florida, and this surely puts a lot of pressure on this Tennessee team that I still have a lot of questions about.  This is a nice spot to back the Gators after back to back strugles, and I think we are at least getting a field goal of value here for Florida’s struggles vs. South Florida last week, which was the ultimate flat spot as they opened the season agaisnt two top 25 teams, and had Tennessee on deck.  However, I trust Billy Napier, as he’s 11-3-1 ATS as a dog, 8-3-1 ATS on the road, and I still think Florida has an advantage in this game, and it’s their running game.

Tennessee has struggled mightly vs. mobile QB’s,a dn despite ranking 19th in the young season they have played an average opponent ranking 96th in rushing ypc, and here they’ll face Florida who ranks 4th, and 12th in epa rush offense.  Tennessee to mobile QB’s last year went 1-2 giving up 195 yards to Matt Corral, 47 and 2 TD to Will Levis in a 3 point win, and 144 to Florida’s Emory Jones.  I look for Anthony Richardson to shine, but he doesn’t have to do it himself Montrell Johnson, and Trevor Etiene have looked the part early, and I think Florida will be able to run the ball here, which should keep this game close.

Tennessee’s offense has been great, but this is an obvious step up in competition, and while they are a run first team they do have to go against a good pass defense in Florida and I expect Florida to come up with some stops.  This is just too big of a line move and too much value here on Florida for me to pass up given their dominance in this series, and Tennessee’s struggles stopping mobile QB’s.

SERVICE BIO

Season Awards: This network is one of the most competitive network of handicappers with over 90 professional experts.  2009 & 2011 I was the #2 handicapper for the entire year!  I also have had several top 10 finishes including, #1 NCAAF 2009, #1 NCAAF 2011, #2 MLB 2009, #5 NFL 2010, #6 NCAAF 2013, #7 NCAAB 2012, and #10 MLB 2011.   

My Promise To You: All of my information is 100% backed by a guarantee and is fully researched and supported by my in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I personally bet these plays too so it is only fair you understand my logic.

Who Am I: I have been wagering on sports for more than a decade and I've been doing it professionally for 14 years. In 2008 I started my own service and have been earning my clients an impressive return on investment which is solidified by multiple national handicapping season awards for MLB and College Football. This is something I take very seriously. That is why every single recommendation I make comes with a full in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I want you to know my logic behind ever one of my picks.

Best Moments: In 2011 I predicted Iowa State +28.5 over Oklahoma State on a Friday night, but not only did I predict and play the spread I also predicted Iowa State to win the game outright as a 22:1 under dog. Iowa State won in over time to shock the nation and knock Oklahoma State out of the BCS National Championship race. Aside from that I have profited in every single of every sport on my signature play of the day's (POD's).

My Motto: "The will to win is nothing without the will to prepare."