*3 Star Play Over* The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are clearly playing faster this season. Eran Ganot's team excels in the transition and CS Fullerton hasn't been good on transition defense. Also, Hawaii ranks top 20 in the nation in free throws attempted and CS Fullerton is consistently a team that fouls a bunch year after year. Fullerton also gives up a lot of open looks from three and Hawaii has some solid outside shooters.

The Fullerton Titans love to play at an extremely fast tempo. The tempo in this game should be quick enough that it will take some pretty bad shooting numbers to keep this one under.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* UT Arlington has sped up in a huge way this year. This is a team that ranked 11th in the Sun Belt in tempo two years ago. They ranked seventh in the Sun Belt in tempo last year. They rank first so far this year in tempo. Arlington is going to try to get out in transition and force some turnovers and get run out chances here.

Little Rock has seen two good defenses in their last four games (B2B games in the Sun Belt this year). They face a much weaker defense here.

Both of these teams make a habit of getting to the free throw line and that could be key here as I expect a close game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Niagara has been worse on offense this year than they were a year ago. I think they are due for some positive regression. This team has nearly the same guys as they did a year ago when they were amazing from the field. They are still atrocious on defense as they were a year ago.

Quinnipiac has sped up their pace some this year. They have been much better on defense this year, but I think they are going to regress negatively in a big way going forward. I don't buy that this team all at once went from a subpar defense to number 2 in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They have yet to face a decent offense. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams played twice last year with the final totals being 137 and 138 points. They then played on Thursday and the final total was 134. Since Sacred Heart shot the ball poorly from 3 in Thursday's game I expect a few more points this time, but this number is too high.

St. Francis (PA) also shot the ball far better than normal. This is a team that was 1.11 points per possession in the league last year. They are averaging 0.95 points per possession this year. They just put up 1.17 points per possession on Thursday night. 

Sacred Heart has slowed the tempo down some this year, and St. Francis is far worse on offense and a little better on defense.

I think this total should be in the 138-139 range. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* San Diego State is an elite defensive team. They also play at the second slowest pace in the Mountain West. Air Force plays at the slowest pace in the Mountain West.

Matt Mitchell is San Diego State's leading scorer at 15.3 ppg and he is expected to miss this game with an injury. 

Air Force is unlikely to be able to get much going on offense here, and I think San Diego State will be less efficient without their go to guy on offense as well.

This projects as a very slow paced game. My projected number on this game is much lower than this total.

Take the under. Top Rated play. 

*I would bet this for 5 stars down to 126.5 and for 4 stars at a lower level than that*

*4 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's plays at the slowest pace of any team in the NEC. Central Connecticut State hasn't really been able to force Mt. St. Mary's to play at their faster pace in their recent meetings.

The second game in these back to back situations have trended to being slightly lower scoring. Mt. St. Mary's is still going to play very slowly. C Connecticut State is still a very inefficient team. Neither of these teams get to the line much at all, and both have struggled to get second chance points this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors were a consistent under team last year. They didn't have a single game above 137 in regulation in league play last year. 

Fairleigh Dickinson and Merrimack met twice last year and after regulation the final totals were 110 and 114. 

These two teams played on Thursday night and the final total was 113 points. Now, we get a posted total of 141 points? 

Merrimack is playing somewhat quicker this year, so I do expect this game to be a bit higher scoring, but this is a big number. Merrimack is bad offensively. Fairleigh Dickinson is far worse on offense this year, and they have been bad against zone defenses in recent seasons. Merrimack's zone should continue to bother them.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duquesne Dukes are severely shorthanded now. Sincere Carry was their star player and leader on the offensive end. They have some guys who have stepped in and played solid defense, but no one is able to replace his scoring and facilitating of the offense.

St. Bonaventure is happy to slow the pace down, and their defense is one of the best in the Atlantic Ten. They held Duquesne to 48 points when they met just a couple games ago, and Duquesne should struggle to score again here.

St. Bonaventure has had poor efficiency numbers on offense on the road in recent seasons.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Loyola Marymount and Santa Clara are far better on defense than they are on offense. The significant line move here on the total makes me like the under.

Santa Clara tries to get to the basket a lot, but Loyola does a good job defending the paint.

Loyola Marymount looks to get inside as well, but Santa Clara has multiple good shot blockers inside.

The pace of the game might be quick, but I don't think the teams will shoot it well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Last night's game between these two finished 65-60. The tempo was slow and both offenses struggled to get good looks.

Western Illinois appears to have decided to slow things down tempo wise. That is likely a good move since their offense is horrible. I would expect them to try to keep the game close again by slowing it down.

South Dakota has the best defense in the Summit League. Their games have consistently been lower. This is a league that scores a lot in general and I believe this total is inflated.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Arkansas State* Arkansas State has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country by multiple measures this year. Louisiana also ranks as one of the luckiest. 

Arkansas State led in the second half yesterday before Louisiana pulled away late. The two teams split last year, and I think Arkansas State should be able to keep this close. 

We've seen teams who fail to cover the spread in the first game of these back to backs do pretty well in the second game.

Take Arkansas State. 

*4 Star Play Over* I had the over here yesterday and lost. There were 75 possessions in that game and the two teams had the worst offensive efficiencies they have had this season. Both of these teams are better on offense than they are on defense. Now, we have a lower line and my projected number for this game is 148. 

Both teams should play fast again today. I would expect more trips to the line. If we see a tempo like they have played at, even average shooting gets this to 150 or so.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Kentucky Norse won 81-76 yesterday against Robert Morris. 

Robert Morris plays a unique trapping defense that can bother quite a few teams. Northern Kentucky does turn it over quite a bit and that should lead to quick points for Robert Morris at times. On the other end though, Northern Kentucky got a lot of open looks near the hoop against this unique defense yesterday. Adrian Nelson has really come on of late for N Kentucky and I think he is a tough matchup for Robert Morris.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wisconsin is elite at controlling the tempo of the game. Ohio State prefers to play slowly, so I think they will be happy to allow Wisconsin to slow this game down as well.

Wisconsin's defense has been tremendous of late. The Badgers last six games have finished regulation with these point totals: 134, 130, 122, 131, 114, and 120 points. 

Ohio State ranks as the fifth most efficient offense in the nation right now. I think they slip in the weeks to come. They are without starting point guard C.J. Walker right now. That could be an issue in a game like this against a great defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Utah Valley plays with quite a bit of tempo, and we know that St. John's plays almost as fast as anyone in the country. 

Utah Valley has really had issues taking care of the basketball this year. They rank in the bottom 50 in the nation in transition points allowed off opponents steals. St. John's should take full advantage of this weakness.

Utah Valley gets to the line at the 7th highest rate of any team in the country. St. John's is prone to fouling a lot because of their full court press.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Nicholls State averaged using 17.2 seconds per possession last year in the Southland. They are using only 15.5 seconds per possession this year. That kind of big change in tempo can create value in the totals market especially on under the radar teams. 

Nicholls State has also improved their offensive efficiency some at the same time. 

New Orleans is playing slightly faster than they did a year ago as well. New Orleans' offense is rolling right now. They have scored a minimum of 86 points in each of their last three games. 

Nicholls State has scored 80 points or more in four of their last seven games.

The final game they met last year these two teams scored 160 points. I expect something close to that here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Stephen F. Austin* The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are the class of the Southland Conference. SF Austin blew out Lamar at home last year by 18 points. I expect a similar margin in this one.

Lamar struggles with turnovers that lead to quick points for the opposition. That is what Stephen F. Austin can take advantage of better than anyone. 

Lamar doesn't have enough good scoring options and they are thin on the bench. The Lumberjacks have the deepest team in this conference and I think that will show in this one.

Take Stephen F. Austin.

*3 Star Play on Temple* The Temple Owls host Houston here in what is a tricky spot. Houston expected to play Cincinnati at home this weekend, but due to COVID that game was postponed. The Temple contest was added last minute, so Houston had to travel to Philadelphia late.

Houston is coming off a game where they blew out Tulsa in a revenge spot after they had lost on the road at Tulsa earlier this year. 

Houston is great defensively, but they do foul a lot. The strength of the Temple offense is getting to the line and they should be there a lot in this contest.

This is a big number for Houston to be laying on the road. Houston won by four at Temple last year. 

Take Temple. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks and Oklahoma Sooners are thought of as offensive powerhouses, but these two defenses have been very good this year.

Oklahoma has slowed their pace down drastically compared to a year ago. The Sooners defense ranks first in the Big 12 in defending without fouling. Kansas is second in defending without fouling. 

These two teams are also second and third in the Big 12 in defensive rebounding. We shouldn't see very many second chance opportunities in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Loyola Marymount* I see Santa Clara as a team to fade right now. They have been good this year, but I think they are due for regression. Santa Clara has shot the ball really well in WCC play from 3 point range, but this team isn't a good outside shooting team overall and that isn't likely to continue.

Loyola Marymount hasn't lost at home this year. That includes nice home wins over UCSB, UC Irvine, and San Francisco. 

Santa Clara's offense is very limited and this Loyola defense is much improved under the new coaching staff.

Take Loyola Marymount. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds and Weber State Wildcats both play at a very fast pace. Weber State just beat Southern Utah 91-67 on Thursday night. 

Weber State is unlikely to score 91 points again here, but Southern Utah should score quite a bit more than 67 points. Southern Utah has only scored less than 81 points twice in their eight home games this year. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 16 in the nation in free throw shots attempted. I expect a bunch of fouling and trips to the free throw line here. 

These two teams have each seen a bunch of their games sail far past this posted total. They are more than capable of scoring even more than they did on Thursday night.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on UNC Greensboro* The UNC Greensboro Spartans lost in the conference tournament to Chattanooga in a stunner last year. They remember that game. UNC Greensboro hasn't played up to expectations this year, but they do already have a couple really nice road wins in the conference.

Chatttanooga is a team due for regression to the mean. They are a good team, but they aren't one of the top two or three teams in the league. 

UNC Greensboro was voted as the preseason favorite in this league. Chattanooga was rated 7th. UNC Greensboro has the best player on the floor in Miller. 

I'll lay the short number here with the more talented team with a lot to play for here.

Take UNC Greensboro.