*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets have to win nearly every game the rest of the way to have any chance at the NL Wild Card spot. They likely won't make it, but they still have plenty of reasons to keep fighting. 

Zack Wheeler has been tremendous down the stretch for the Mets. Wheeler has allowed only 4 runs in his last 25 innings pitched. He has allowed 1 run in each of his last four starts. Wheeler is doing a very good job inducing soft contact of late.

Anthony DeSclafani has been pitching really well in the 2nd half of the season. DeSclafani had a .332 wOBA allowed in the first half, but it is all the way down to .261 in the second half. 

The Mets bullpen ranks 3rd in FIP in the last 30 days, and the Reds bullpen ranks 9th in bullpen FIP in the last 30 days.

The under is 15-5-1 in DeSclafani's last 21 starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Free Pick* The Virginia Cavaliers are clearly a much better team than the Old Dominion Monarchs. I'm not here to argue against Virginia. In fact, I have Virginia over 7.5 season wins this year, and I'm high on this Virginia team. What is that makes me want to fade them here? This is a sandwich spot for Virginia.

The Cavs are coming off a very emotional win against Florida State. The Cavaliers locker room was extremely fired up after that win. Virginia goes to South Bend to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish next week. They know Old Dominion isn't very good, and it doesn't prove much to run up a big score against the Monarchs.

Bryce Perkins is a star quarterback for Virginia. He should play here, but he is dealing with a minor injury and I would think the Cavs want him to take a few less hits and likely get out of this game early. 

With a total in the mid 40's, this is an extremely high line. I'll take the dog with the large amount of points.

*I'm 7-1 in my last 8 college football plays. My College Football Saturday Trio Value Pack is up. 12-3 last 15 totals plays. CFB Hidden GEM Total is up. Join in this weekend!* 

*3 Star Play on Buffalo* The Buffalo Bulls are a well-coached team. Lance Leipold wasn't happy with his team after last week's loss at Liberty. Buffalo comes back home and gets to take on a big name opponent who just knocked off Maryland last week. The Bulls will be up for this one.

Temple is coached by Rod Carey, and I think he is a much weaker coach than Leipold. Temple is coming off a big win over Maryland last weekend. The Temple defense was great in that game. Temple goes to play Georgia Tech, where they'll face off against Geoff Collins, their old coach. This is a tough spot for the Owls.

Buffalo will look to run the ball as much as they can and slow the pace. With a low total, this is a lot of points for Temple to be laying against a decent opponent. 

I don't think we know yet that Temple is a really good team, and I'll take the points in this one.

Take Buffalo. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals offense looks different this year with Drew Plitt at quarterback. Ball State is airing it out far more often than they did in recent seasons. Plitt has thrown 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions so far this year. He is completing a whopping 70.6% of his passes. 

Ball State ranks 10th in the nation in tempo. They will try to play as quickly as possible here. They are also likely to be behind, which should make them play even quicker and be even more pass heavy. The Cardinals offense has been much better than most expected this season.

NC State has gotten decent production from their offense this year, and Ball State's defense is very weak. Ball State has very little pass rush, and I think they'll give up quite a few big plays here.

While NC State's defense is good, they are much better against the run than the pass. This secondary isn't great and I think Ball State can score enough to get over this reasonable total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Tulsa* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are the side for me here. Wyoming is a straight fade. Wyoming was extremely fortunate to win in week one at home against Missouri. That was a very misleading final score. They then were outplayed by Texas State, but Texas State's turnovers let them narrowly cover and win that contest. Last weekend, Wyoming nearly lost at home to lowly Idaho. Wyoming was 4/12 passing in that game against a terrible defense.

Wyoming is net negative yards per play on the year even though they have played two really weak teams in their last two games. The Cowboys are +5 in turnover margin on the season thus far. They are one of the worst 3-0 teams you will ever see.

Tulsa's defense has been very solid this year. They did a nice job against Michigan State, and actually held down a prolific Oklahoma State offense for quite a while. I expect them to load up the box and try to force Wyoming to beat them through the air. I don't think Wyoming can do it.

This is a cheap price on the home team as we fade an overrated Wyoming team.

Take Tulsa. 

*4 Star Play Under* UAB has typically been a good rushing offense, but the Blazers are averaging only 3.24 ypc yards per carry so far this year. That's bad to start with, but when you consider they have played Alabama State and Akron that is especially bad.

UAB does still have a very solid defense. Though they have played two bad teams, they have allowed only 20 plays of 10 yards or more and 7 plays of 20 yards or more. 

South Alabama has improved defensively from a year ago. This is a team that is being coached to try to avoid giving up the big play this year. UAB moves slowly so even when they score it is likely to take quite a bit of time.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Top Play Over* Texas State ranks 19th in tempo so far this year. Georgia State ranks 24th in the nation in tempo. Two top 25 teams in pace of play should mean a lot of possessions here. 

Georgia State ranks 129th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. Texas State ranks 119th in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have been terrible. 

Texas State is allowing nearly 6 yards per play, and Georgia State is going to run it early and often here. They should be able to expose the weakness of the Texas State run defense here.

Texas State's new OC Bob Stitt wants them to air it out early and often. How much are they throwing it? Texas State has thrown the football on a whopping 68% of their offensive plays so far this year. If it weren't for some terrible turnovers in plus territory, Texas State's offense would have scored a lot more points so far this year.

Plenty of tempo from both teams and two very weak offenses. 

Take the over. 5 Star TOP Play. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have a really strong offense. Western Michigan has very nice balance. They rank 9th in the nation in yards per play. The Broncos have 22 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. The Syracuse defense has been a disappointment. The Orange have allowed a whopping 48 plays of 10 yards or more already this season.

Syracuse's offense hasn't looked good so far this year. They have played a pretty tough schedule though, and Western Michigan's defense is very weak. Remember, Western Michigan's defense made Michigan State's very weak offense look great just a couple weeks ago.

Syracuse will push the pace, and their offense should look a lot better here. Western Michigan's offense should be able to move the ball a lot as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have been ruining all kinds of chances to score with turnovers and stalled out drives deep in opponents territory. The Chargers have played two pretty good defenses so far this year, and LA still ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per play. Rivers is still a good quarterback and he is surrounded by quite a few weapons. 

The Houston Texans offense has a lot of potential. As long as they open it up enough here and throw the ball early and often, I see this as a matchup where they can score plenty of points. Deshaun Watson is a really good quarterback, and he has tremendous wide receivers. The Chargers secondary is badly banged up, and Houston has a big edge at wide receiver.

The Texans biggest weakness now is also in the secondary. Their defensive line isn't quite as strong as it was a year ago either. Look for Rivers to do some damage on this Texans secondary.

I see both passing games having a clear edge here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Minnesota Vikings* The Minnesota Vikings are in a nice bounce back spot here. Minnesota is still an excellent defense, and Kirk Cousins has shown the ability to look good against bad defenses in the past. The Oakland Raiders defense looked good in week one against Denver, but I think the Broncos offense is going to make a lot of defenses look good this year. 

Jon Gruden's team is missing a lot of key players due to injury already this year. On the other side, the Vikings are pretty healthy at this point in the season. The Raiders have been able to sneak up on some teams at home, but they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. 

Minnesota is 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 home games. The Vikings are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 coming off a straight up loss. 

I see this as a one-sided contest.

Take Minnesota. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers I view as an under team at least early in the season. This Green Bay defense is much better than they were a year ago. I like their athleticism and speed at all positions. 

Denver's offense is very weak. Joe Flacco simply isn't the answer, and Denver is going to struggle all year on offense. They simply aren't explosive enough. I see the Broncos as a team who tries to play fairly conservative offensively, and they don't have enough weapons either.

Green Bay's offensive tempo has been very slow so far this year. The Packers new offense hasn't worked well thus far. Green Bay is 2-0 because of their defense. The Packers offense is 30th in the NFL in yards per play so far this year, behind the Chicago Bears and just ahead of the New York Jets. 

The weather could be helpful here. The long-term forecast calls for 15 mph winds during this game and a chance of rain. Wind certainly helps the under.

Take the under here.