*3 Star Play Under* The Delaware Blue Hens aren't great defensively, but they are far better than they were a year ago on this end of the floor. Delaware was 277th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are 142nd this year. 

Delaware prefers to play at a slow pace. They have been forced into some quicker games in the CAA so far, but they play a William & Mary team tonight that is playing the slowest of anyone in the league in conference action. 

William & Mary was 270th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are all the way up to 106th this year.

Both teams are good on offense, and it is possible that they shoot lights out and beat this number, but at the pace I project (66 possessions), it would take both teams averaging more than 1.1 points per possession and that is pretty steep.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars are 336th in the nation in defensive efficiency (out of 353 teams). Tennessee Tech is 316th in defensive efficiency. These are two really bad defenses and a very low posted total with those things being considered.

Tennessee Tech was stalling on offense in non-conference action, but they have picked up their pace dramatically in conference play.

Both of these teams rank among the worst 10 teams in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed. They are giving up a lot of second chance buckets. Bad defense plus second chance opportunities makes me look toward the over.

With the line move down today I'm backing the over at this price. Edwardsville has had their last five games go over this total. Four of those five games finished at 150 points or higher. Tech has had six of their last seven games go over this total.

Take the over. 

Army/Holy Cross under 143

*3 Star Play Under* The Holy Cross Crusaders had to change the way they play. Their new coach wanted to push the pace, but they just don't have enough quickness or talent on the roster yet. In the last few games, Holy Cross has dramatically slowed their pace of play down. Compared to early in the year, Holy Cross is using more than 3 seconds more per possession before they put up a shot. 

Army is also playing 1.5 seconds per possession slower than they were in the non-conference schedule. 

This total is a few points high based on the recent tempo trends alone, but I see a couple other reasons to like this one.

Army is so inefficient on offense, but they really get after it on defense. Holy Cross has been very inconsistent on defense this year.

Neither team gets to the line much at all, which is clearly a plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Hampton Pirates season long offensive numbers don't look great. They are good, but not great. Those are misleading though, since star scorer Jermaine Marrow has missed half of Hampton's games this year. Hampton is a completely different offense with Marrow on the floor. He is one of the very best scorers in the country.

Hampton is playing the fastest of any team in the Big South. They are using only 15.3 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. Winthrop is playing at the second fastest pace of any team in the conference. They are using only 15.8 seconds of the shot clock on average. Both games between these two were track meets last year, and I don't see any reason to expect anything other than a very fast pace for this one.

Hampton is 10th in the nation in FT/FGA, and the single biggest weakness of the Winthrop defense is they put their opponent on the line far too often. 

Winthrop's offense has been rolling of late. They have scored 85 points or more in four of their last six games. They have seen 5 of their last 6 games finish with at least 158 points.

Hampton's last three games (since Marrow came back from injury) have finished at 177, 156, and 163 points.

Take the over.