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Stephen Nover |
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| I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jul 31, 2021 Phillies vs Pirates |
Phillies -150 at linepros |
Lost $150.0 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
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Phillies minus $1.50 at Pirates There wasn't much to gut. But the Pirates dealt Adam Frazier and closer Richard Rodriguez as part of five trades they made leading up to the trade deadline in their eternal quest to become relevant again. Now Pittsburgh is even worse than its 39-64 record since Frazier and Rodriguez were having strong seasons. The Pirates have the lowest run total in the majors and Frazier was by far their best hitter. I'll venture 1 1/2 units to win 1 unit backing Aaron Nola and the Phillies to rebound after an embarrassing 7-0 loss to the Pirates on Friday. That loss could spell the end for Vince Velasquez staying in the Phillies' starting rotation. So maybe one good thing came out of that defeat for the Phillies. Philadelphia manager Joe Girardi said it was the poorest his team played all season. How's that for a kick in the pants? Philadelphia trails the Mets by 3 1/2 games in the NL East. The Phillies can't afford to keep losing to the team that has the second-worst record in the National League. Nola should fix that. He's coming off one of his strongest starts pitching 8 2/3 innings against the Braves giving up one run on four hits and no walks with nine strikeouts this past Sunday. The Pirates had scored four runs in their last four games before Friday's game. The Phillies bolstered its bullpen, acquiring veteran Ian Kennedy, who was solid as the Rangers closer. Kennedy is expected to be available if needed. Second-year pitcher JT Brubaker goes for Pittsburgh. Brubaker showed some early-season promise, but has hit the wall. He hasn't won since May 11. Brubaker missed most of 2019 in the minors because of a forearm injury. He pitched 47 1/3 innings in the majors last season. He's gone 96 1/3 innings this season, throwing nearly 1,500 pitches. Brubaker has surrendered 17 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 18 2/3 innings. During this time frame, he's given up 18 hits and eight homers. The Phillies are hoping to get back both Rhys Hoskins (groin) and Jean Segura (knee) today. They missed Friday's game. Neither is expected to go on the injured list. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover has three premium baseball plays going today in addition to this free selection headed by his Max Unit Day Game Dominator. All of Stephen's plays come with his signature in-depth analysis.) |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jul 31, 2021 Brewers vs Braves |
Brewers -145 at William Hill |
Lost $145.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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I'll lay a mid-size price to get the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff. I'm not worried about this game being in Atlanta. Milwaukee is 22-7 in its last 29 road games. The Brewers are playing well with a lot of confidence going 9-3 since All-Star break. Woodruff has a 1.96 road ERA and 2.14 ERA on the season. He has 1.84 ERA in two lifetime starts versus Atlanta. The Brewers have a fresh Josh Hader to head their strong bullpen. The Braves are going with rookie Kyle Muller, who is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA when pitching at home this season. The Brewers have tremendous depth with the addition of Eduardo Escobar, who made his presence immediately felt with Milwaukee hitting a home run in the Brewers' 9-5 Friday victory against the Braves. Christian Yelich is on the injured list, but he was having a terrible season. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jul 31, 2021 A's vs Angels |
UNDER 10 -112 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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If you can't beat him, walk him. That's been the A's motto this series when facing Shohei Ohtani. It's paid off for Oakland as they have shut out the Angels in each of the first two games. Oakland can get away with this strategy because the Angels are missing three key bats - Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh. These injuries have taken a toll. The Angels have scored 4 or fewer runs in nine of their last 12 games. The A's, though, haven't been lighting the scoreboard on fire either. They've been held to 4 or fewer runs in six of their past seven games. The total is high because of the pitching matchup, Cole Irvin versus Jaime Barria. Irvin, however, has been sneaky effective with a respectable 3.62 ERA. Barria has a fat 6.23 ERA. However, he's only thrown 13 innings. Barria made his first start of the year this past Sunday and held the Twins to two runs on four hits in seven innings. His fastball topped off higher than 95 mph in that game, the fastest he's ever thrown. There is wind blowing out to right at about 9 mph, but this is more than offset with Tripp Gibson being the projected home plate umpire. The Under is a staggering 16-4 (80 percent) in games Gibson has been the home plate umpire in this season. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Jul 31, 2021 Orioles vs Tigers |
Orioles -102 at William Hill |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Matt Manning may become a good pitcher in time. But right now Manning, one of the Tigers' better pitching prospects, hasn't effectively made the big league grade. He has a losing record and a 6.00 ERA. Manning gave up four runs in five innings to the Twins during his last start. The Tigers go against Baltimore's top pitcher, John Means. Neither of these teams is good, but the Orioles are respectable when Means pitches. He's 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. So given the better pitcher at this price, I'll side with the Orioles. | ||
| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 01, 2021 Cubs vs Nationals |
UNDER 8½ -105 |
Lost $105.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Neither Adbert Alzolay nor Erick Fedde has been pitching well. But I still don't see these teams combining for nine runs here after each team was gutted at the trade deadline. Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant are all gone from the Cubs. The Nationals no longer have Trea Turner. It's rebuild time for both teams and many reserves usually play on Sunday so neither starting pitcher should be looking at a difficult lineup. The Under is 17-7-1 in the Cubs' last 25 road contests. Weather shouldn't factor with just a slight breeze blowing out to center. Malachi Moore is scheduled to be the home plate umpire for only the eighth time in his big league career. The Under has cashed six of the seven times he's been behind the plate. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 01, 2021 Twins vs Cardinals |
Cardinals -133 at SC Consensus |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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The AL Central is a weak division and the Twins are the weakest team in that division. Minnesota has been bad and disappointing all season. Now the Twins are worse given their rebuilding moves at the trade deadline. Team morale had to suffer when team ace Jose Berrios was dealt. I've been looking to fade the Twins. I successfully did in Friday's game when Griffin Jax took Berrios' spot. I passed on Saturday's matchup because I didn't trust Cardinals starter Jake Woodford. The Twins bashed Woodford in winning, 8-1. But now the Cardinals are back on safe ground pitching Adam Wainwright. The 39-year-old still is solid with a 3.51 ERA. Wainwright has a 2.70 ERA at home this season. His last start was five days ago on the road against the Indians. Wainwright beat the Indians, holding them to two runs in seven innings giving up four hits, walking two and striking out eight.Twins starter Michael Pineda has a 4.42 road ERA. He's backed by a bad bullpen. The Twins are 20-31 on the road. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 01, 2021 Brewers vs Braves |
Brewers +137 at linepros |
Won $137 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| The Braves have home field and the better starting pitcher. But that's it. The Brewers hold the rest of the edges and are a superior team. Milwaukee is 19 games above .500. Atlanta has a losing record. The Brewers have proven themselves on the road going 33-19. There's too much value to pass up Milwaukee here. The pitching matchup is Brett Anderson versus Charlie Morton. Anderson has a 3.86 ERA. He's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, but a very legitimate one. Anderson is more than capable of throwing five solid innings before turning things over to a very strong Brewers bullpen. The Braves dealt for Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario to beef up their offense. Their attack, though, needed beefing up after losing Ronald Acuna to injury and Marcell Ozuna to suspension. The right-handed Morton has a 3.72 ERA, which isn't that much lower than Anderson's. Milwaukee is 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times facing a righty starter. The Braves bullpen is slightly below average with a 4.39 ERA. | ||
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
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