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Stephen Nover |
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I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Dec 04, 2021 Clippers vs Kings |
Kings +1½ -104 at pinnacle |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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The teams just met Wednesday in LA. The Kings won, 124-115. That put their record at 3-3 under interim coach Alvin Gentry, who replaced overmatched Luke Walton. The Kings are a better team under Gentry. They also have been idle since that Wednesday victory. The Clippers, however, will be playing for the sixth time in nine days. They are off a highly-satisfying, 119-115, tough win against the Lakers last night. The rested Kings could get back Harrison Barnes, who is having a career year averaging 19 points and 7.2 rebounds. This game sets up well for Sacramento with the situational aspects outweighing the Clippers' revenge spot. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-B | Dec 04, 2021 Iowa State vs Creighton |
Iowa State +6½ -110 at Mirage |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
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There is too much disrespect for Iowa State here. This isn't the 2-22 Cyclones' wreckage of last season. The Cyclones should not be getting this many points. All the Cyclones have done is go 7-0 under new coach T.J. Otzelberger. They have earned their No. 19 ranking in the country by beating then ninth-ranked Memphis by 19 points, then-ranked No. 25 Xavier by 12 points and Oregon State by 10 points. The Beavers reached the Elite Eight last season. Iowa State gives up five fewer points per game than Creighton, holding foes to 60.4 points a contest. The Cyclones are 18th in 3-point defensive field goal percentage. Otzelberger was an assistant coach under Bluejays coach Greg McDermott when McDermott coached Iowa State. The two are very close. This is the first time the two coaches are facing each other. So the motivation factor will be high. Iowa State has defeated Creighton during each of the past six meetings. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-B | Dec 04, 2021 Marquette vs Wisconsin |
UNDER 137½ -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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I don't think the oddsmaker quite realizes what an intense in-state rivalry this matchup is because this total is much higher than what I believe it should be. Wisconsin has a long tradition of being a great defensive team. That's true again so far this season. The Badgers rank 11th defensively holding opponents to 56.7 points a game. Shaka Smart is off to a great start in his first season as coach of Marquette. The Golden Eagles are 7-1. They've held their past two foes to an average of 60 points. The Badgers don't figure to score much from beyond the arc ranking 283rd in 3-point shooting at 30.1 percent. Marquette has struggled, too, with its long-range shooting ranking 218th in 3-point shooting. These teams are going to have to work hard to get clean shots. I made this total 10 points lower than what the oddsmaker did. So I'm on the Under. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Dec 04, 2021 Georgia vs Alabama |
UNDER 49½ -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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I see defense trumping offense here. Georgia is the top defensive team in the country both in fewest yards and points per game. Only once has Georgia allowed more than 13 points and that was giving up 17 to Tennessee in a 34-point victory when the Volunteers scored a late TD during garbage time. Alabama has had issues protecting Bryce Young. He's been sacked 33 times, including getting sacked seven times by Auburn in the Crimson Tide's last game. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Dec 04, 2021 Appalachian State vs UL-Lafayette |
UL-Lafayette +3 -110 at Mirage |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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UL Lafayette rolled past Appalachian State, 41-13, as 4-point 'dogs on Oct. 12. The Ragin' Cajuns have won 11 in a row. Appalachian State is good. But I don't view Lafayette as a home 'dog again to the Mountaineers. Maybe the oddsmaker thinks the Ragin' Cajuns are distracted by their head coach, Billy Napier, being named head man at Florida. But Napier will be coaching this game. He recruited this team and has 20 starters back. Lafayette has won the Sun Belt Conference West Division each of the last four years under Napier. The Cajuns didn't get to play in the Sun Belt title game last year, though, because the game was canceled due to COVID-19. It's been a mistake to lay points against Lafayette at home during Napier's four years there as the Cajuns have covered 73 percent of the 15 times they've been a home 'dog. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Dec 04, 2021 Georgia vs Alabama |
Alabama +6½ -107 at linepros |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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It has been six years since Alabama last was an underdog. I understand why Georgia is favored here. But these teams are much closer than what the market perceives. The Crimson Tide, however, have faced the more difficult schedule. While the Bulldogs drew Vanderbilt, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia Tech and Charleston Southern, Alabama had to play LSU, Mississippi and Texas A&M. Yes, Alabama had some close calls. Yet the Crimson Tide still lost only one game going 11-1. They know how to win and certainly are battle-tested. They also desperately need to win this game while Georgia doesn't. If the Crimson Tide loses their season is done. Georgia can take a loss and still would make the College Football Playoffs. I'm also attracted to getting this many points with the superior quarterback. Alabama gets that important check mark with Bryce Young. |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
