Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
|
Stephen Nover |
|
|---|---|---|
|
I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
MLB | Sep 21, 2019 Cardinals vs Cubs |
OVER 12 +102 |
Won $102 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
The wind is blowing out to left field like crazy at Wrigley Field in the 16-18 mph range. The oddsmaker can't set a total high enough when that happens. This is especially bad for Cubs lefty starter Jose Quintana, who has an 11.32 ERA in his last three starts. Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson doesn't miss many bats so the weather conditions are not ripe for him either. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Sep 21, 2019 New Mexico State vs New Mexico |
UNDER 71 -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| New Mexico State can't hold up its end with a total this large. The Aggies have scored a combined 27 points in three games going against Washington State, Alabama and San Diego State. Yes, New Mexico is a drop-off, but this also is a rivalry game. The Aggies averaged just 371 yards and 25 points last season. So far this seaso they are averaging 302.7 yards and nine points a game. New Mexico State QB Josh Adkins is heavily turnover-prone. The Aggies will try to establish a ground attack for the first time. They should stick with it for a while because they are stepping down in class. New Mexico's offense has been down since the second half of last season. During their past eight games versus FBS opponents, the Lobos have failed to break 24 points in any game. They are averaging 15.2 points in these games. Their head coach, Bob Davie, is out another week recuperating from a health issue. None of the previous four matchups between these two teams during the last four years reached a combined 70 points. This one shouldn't either. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Sep 21, 2019 Louisville vs Florida State |
Florida State -6½ -105 at sportsbook |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
With just a one-point overtime victory against Louisiana Monroe, Florida State is desperate for a victory. The Seminoles are 1-2, but could be 3-0 having blown fourth-quarter leads against Virginia and Boise State. Florida State has the athletes and talent especially on offense. James Blackman has come through at quarterback and Cam Akers is one of the best running backs in the country. Scott Satterfield is doing a good job in his first season at Louisville. But he has a major rebuild job to do. The Cardinals are coming off easy wins against two overmatched opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky. This is a step-up game for the Cardinals and it's also an off-surface for them. While I think the Cardinals are improved and on the right track under Satterfield, I don't see them staying within a touchdown of highly motivated Florida State. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Sep 21, 2019 Washington vs BYU |
Washington -6 -110 at Mirage |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 for the past four years and this year's defense is right up there, too. The Huskies have a powerful offensive line, a balanced attack and Georgia transfer QB Jacob Eason has taken command of Chris Peterson's Washington offense. He looked good in the Huskies' 52-20 home win against Hawaii last week. The Huskies are similar to Utah and the Utes hammered BYU, 30-12, at BYU. The Cougars rebounded from that defeat by coming up with upset victories at Tennessee and home against USC. Both of those games went overtime. BYU was outgained in each of those games, but won the turnover battle. Washington knows how to take care of the ball. Washington rolled over BYU, 35-7, last season. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Sep 21, 2019 Georgia State vs Texas State |
OVER 63½ -108 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
Georgia State gives up 43 points a game, ranking 127th in scoring defense. The Panthers are off a 57-10 loss to Western Michigan where they yielded 694 yards. The Panthers, though, have a decent offense that is balanced. They average 32 points a game. QB Dan Ellington has an 8-to-1 TD-to-Interception ratio and is the Panthers' No. 2 rusher. Texas State is horrible defensively, too. The Bobcats just gave up 47 points and 639 yards to SMU. This is the spot where the Bobcats' offense really could show something under coach Jake Spavital, who has a reputation as a quarterback guru. The Bobcats rank 37th passing and Georgia State is a team they can run on. The Over has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the two teams. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-F | Sep 21, 2019 Michigan vs Wisconsin |
Michigan +3½ -110 at Bovada |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Michigan has been pointing to this matchup since before the season. The Wolverines haven't looked sharp in beating Middle Tennessee and Army. They also purposely haven't shown too much. The Badgers have outscored their two opponents, 110-0. Those two foes, though, were Central Michigan and South Florida. Wisconsin still doesn't have a good quarterback. If this game would have been the season opener for both teams Michigan would have been favored. Playing option-oriented Army is a good thing for Michigan in its preparation against the ground-and-pound Badgers. Look for the Wolverines to load the box daring Wisconsin QB Jack Coan to beat them, which he can't. Wisconsin faced two weak defenses. The Badgers are not properly battle-tested for Michigan's elite athleticism and size. Note, too, the Badgers are 1-8 ATS following a victory. | ||
| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
MLB | Sep 22, 2019 Nationals vs Marlins |
Marlins +195 at Buckeye |
Won $195 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
The Marlins are such big underdogs in this spot largely due to reputation and the Nationals pushing for a playoff spot. But there are a lot of circumstances here that point to an outstanding value play backing the home underdog. Washington has won the first two games of this series. This is the Nationals' final regular season road game. They return home to host the Phillies on Monday, closing out the season with eight home games. So the Nationals might not have their full concentration while also taking the Marlins too lightly in this Sunday get away day spot. The Nationals are pitching their No. 5 rotation guy, Austin Voth. He has a 3.77 ERA on the road this season. Washington is 1-5 in Voth's last six starts. Pablo Lopez starts for Miami. He's been a much better pitcher at home where his ERA is 3.22. Lopez also has a 2.76 ERA in day games. He's coming off a Monday performance where he held the Diamondbacks to three runs on five hits in six innings. The Marlins do not have a good bullpen. However, the Nationals have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.79. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NFL | Sep 22, 2019 Steelers vs 49ers |
Steelers +8 -135 at 5Dimes |
|
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| The Steelers are in must-win mode win at 0-2. The 49ers are in a letdown spot returning home after opening 2-0 with a pair of road victories. Those wins came against the Buccaneers and Bengals, though. Now the 49ers face their toughest opponent. The line is inflated because Ben Roethlisberger is out. He's replaced by Mason Rudolph. The Steelers have had bad backup quarterbacks before. Rudolph is a step above their previous second-string QB's. He was a star at Oklahoma State and looked good during preseason. The Steelers still have a good defense, an elite offensive line and solid weapons for Rudolph to succeed. San Francisco is much improved. But the 49ers still are not better than the Steelers even with the change from Roethlisberger to Rudolph. Their offense is a work-in-progress and they just lost offensive left tackle Joe Staley, who suffered a broken leng. The 49ers have holes on defense especially in the secondary. The Steelrs upgraded their secondary and showed to their fans they haven't given up on the season by trading a first-round pick for versatile defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NFL | Sep 22, 2019 Saints vs Seahawks |
Saints +5½ -110 at sportsbook |
|
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| The Saints are getting a generous amont of points against a mediocre Seahawks squad because Drew Brees is out. Teddy Bridgewater, though, is one of the better backups in the league. Bridgewater gives the Saints a running dimension from the quarterback spot they lacked from Brees. He has excellent weapons with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas being among the best at their respective positions. Offensive mastermind Seay Payton can also coach Bridgewater up with a full week to prepare. The Seahawks were outgained by nearly 200 yards at home by the winless Bengals in Week 1, lucky to escape with a victory. Seattle then caught a break this past Sunday against the Steelers when Ben Roethilsberger couldn't go in the second due to an elbow injury. Seattle's home field isn't as dominant as before and the Legion of Boom is no more. Instead the Seahawks have an inexperienced and vulnerable secondary. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NFL | Sep 22, 2019 Texans vs Chargers |
OVER 47½ -110 | |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Expect a bounce back performance from Philip Rivers returning to LA after a tough game last week at Detroit. Austin Ekeler has proven he is more than capable of replacing Melvin Gordon even being a better pass-catcher out of the backfield. Deshaun Watson is due for a better game, too. The Texans are facing an easier defense than the Jaguars. Watson has all of his main receiving targets healthy. Both teams are vulnerable in the secondary. The Chargers are missing their starting safeties. They draw Watson after facing Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew during their first two games. That's a monster step up. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NFL | Sep 22, 2019 Ravens vs Chiefs |
Ravens +7½ -145 at 5Dimes |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
The Ravens lost 27-24 in overtime to the Chiefs in Kansas City last season. That is their only loss during their past nine regular season games. The Ravens are itching for revenge and are better than they were last December when they met the Chiefs. The main reason for this is the emergence of Lamar Jackson as a legitimate dual threat quarterback. He has thrown the same number of touchdown passes as Patrick Mahomes this season. Jackson has upgraded weapons supporting hin and a better group of running backs. Baltimore also has the superior defense. The Chiefs are dealing with two key offensive injuries - wide receiver Tyreek Hill and left tackle Eric Fisher. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NFL | Sep 22, 2019 Raiders vs Vikings |
Vikings -7½ -109 at GTBets |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| Jon Gruden doesn't fool me. The Raiders are bad on both sides of the ball. Just like last season. They lack skill position talent and their defense is bottom tier. The Raiders don't travel well either losing 15 of their last 17 road/neutral sites matchups going 3-13-1 ATS in those games. The Vikings have one of the best home fields in football covering 70 percent of their last 54 home games. Note this is an early start time, too. Bad news for the West Coast Raiders. Dalvin Cook is a premier running back. If the Raiders load the box to stop him they become vulnerable to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. The Vikings are hungry for a win after losing to the Packers last week. | ||
|
SERVICE BIO |
|---|
|
Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
LEAD EXPERT
STAY CONNECTED
