Register for an Account Now for Free Picks and More Special Offers!
|
Stephen Nover |
|
|---|---|---|
| I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NBA | Jan 22, 2021 Thunder vs Clippers |
Thunder +13½ -108 at pinnacle |
Lost $108.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| The Clippers are on a great roll winning five in a row with the last three coming in blowout fashion - victories by at least 19 points. It's difficult for the Clippers to keep doing that especially when teams seem to take rest stops in pacing themselves for the long season and playoffs. Oklahoma City is at its best in this role as a road 'dog. The Thunder are 22-8 the past 30 times taking points on the road. This includes a 5-2 ATS mark in that role this season with straight-up victories versus the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans. The Thunder are off a terrible performance in a 119-101 road loss to Denver, however. That was on Tuesday. So they've had two full days to prepare for this one and get their respect back. The Thunder should have plenty of energy since this is only their third game in eight days. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder's best player. He'll have added motivation going against the Clippers, his former team. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NBA | Jan 22, 2021 Celtics vs 76ers |
Celtics +5 -106 at pinnacle |
Lost $106.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
I like the Celtics in this spot even if Jayson Tatum remains out due to COVID-19 protocols. It's a nice bonus if he's able to play. This is a monster rivalry. So my inclination is to grab the points. That's especially so in the case of the Celtics, who are 22-7 ATS the past 29 times as underdogs. Boston is this big of a 'dog because the 76ers are home and just defeated the Celtics, 117-109, this past Wednesday. The 76ers made 36 of 45 free throws in that game. Boston was 13 of 20 from the foul line. The Celtics were not happy with that free throw disparity. Joel Embiid shot more free throws than Boston did as a team. Embiid had a monster performance with 42 points and 10 rebounds. He's a great player. But the Celtics have the center depth and astute coaching of Brad Stevens to make adjustments. One bright spot for Boston in the loss to the 76ers was Kemba Walker looking good in his second game back from a knee injury. He scored 19 points and had good leg movement. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NBA | Jan 22, 2021 Heat vs Raptors |
Raptors -2½ -110 at Mirage |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
I'm going to play the Zig/Zag theory here after the Heat snapped Toronto's three-game winning streak with a 111-102 win two days ago. Miami has yet to string two straight covers together this season. They are 0-6 ATS following a point spread cover. The Raptors have short revenge and they face two games on the road against the Pacers after this one. The Heat remain short-handed minus Jimmy Butler, defensive ace Avery Bradley and reserve big man Meyers Leonard. They also could be without Tyler Herro, who has been bothered by a neck injury. |
||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Jan 22, 2021 Fairleigh Dickinson vs Merrimack |
UNDER 138 -130 |
Lost $130.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| These two teams just played on Thursday. Merrimack won, 62-51. That's a combined score of 113 points. Fairleigh Dickinson shot 32 percent from the floor displaying trouble handling Merrimack's zone defense. The Knights are likely to struggle with their shooting again with no time to adjust and ranking 245th in the country in scoring. Merrimack is no whiz offensively either. The Warriors rank 293rd in scoring and are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. They are 13-3-1 to the Under following a victory. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Jan 22, 2021 Arkansas-Little Rock vs Texas-Arlington |
OVER 144½ -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Arkansas-Little Rock has been a strong Over team. The Over has cashed in 74 percent of its last 34 games. The Trojans have gone Over in eight of their last nine road contests. Arkansas-Little Rock just played two games against Texas State, which has the 40th-best defense in the nation. Before meeting Texas State, the Trojans had scored at least 75 points in eight of their last nine games. Now Little Rock is stepping way down in defensive class. UT-Arlington is a much weaker defensive team than Texas State. The Mavericks are all about a fast tempo and high scoring. They average 79.2 points and play faster than any other Sun Belt Conference team. The Mavericks have produced a minimum of 75 points in seven of their last nine games. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NHL | Jan 22, 2021 Red Wings vs Blackhawks |
OVER 6 -104 |
Lost $104.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| The Blackhawks have played four games. They've allowed five goals in every one of their games. Their defense is littered with inexperienced players and their three goalies have all been terrible. The Red Wings, led by Dylan Larkin, are improved offensively. Chicago prefers to play up-tempo trying to win that way. The Blackhawks had the misfortune of playing their opening two games against Tampa Bay. Their offense has picked up since then producing six goals in the last two games against Florida. Chicago averaged 33 shots on net versus the Panthers. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NHL | Jan 22, 2021 Red Wings vs Blackhawks |
Red Wings +115 at pinnacle |
Lost $100.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Detroit looks improved. Chicago looks horrible. No fans either for the Blackhawks so their home ice is largely negated. This combination lands me on the Red Wings. Detroit is 2-2. If it weren't for a one-goal loss to the Blue Jackets they would be riding a three-game winning streak. Detroit's confidence is up and its puck control has been much better. Jonathan Bernier and Thomas Greiss have played well in net. It's become very evident this is a rebuild year for the Blackhawk - and a big one at that. The Blackhawks are going with a massive youth movement. They miss the leadership and skill set of veteran captain Jonathan Toews and defenseman Brent Seabrook. The Blackhawks have surrendered five goals in each of their four games this season in going 0-4 versus Tampa Bay and Florida. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NHL | Jan 22, 2021 Oilers vs Maple Leafs |
UNDER 6½ -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| I had the Over when these two teams met two days ago. The final in that one was Edmonton 3, Toronto 1. I was caught off guard by how the Oilers and Maple Leafs changed their games around for that matchup. The Oilers basically went into a defensive shell. They were determined to prove they could play defense. Preventing goals and not feeding off Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were the Oilers' priorities in Wednesday's game. Boring, but it worked. So I don't expect the Oilers to deviate from that game plan. Toronto has used a defensive-heavy makeup to its roster. The Maple Leafs' offense is overrated right now averaging 2.5 goals in their last four games. Auston Matthews is their most dynamic scorer and he's questionable. Veteran Joe Thornton is out. The Oilers managed just 21 shots against Toronto in their Wednesday game. Lesson learned from the last meeting. Lesson now applied here. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NHL | Jan 22, 2021 Golden Knights vs Coyotes |
Coyotes +148 at pinnacle |
Won $148 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Las Vegas heads off for its first road trip fat and happy at 4-0, its best start in franchise-history. The Golden Knights play two games against the Coyotes in Arizona before returning back to Las Vegas for a stretch of eight home contests in 10 games. The Golden Knights just swept the Coyotes in Las Vegas. The Coyotes aren't going to lack motivation in this short revenge spot. The Golden Knights not only could be in for a letdown, but also their concentration may be lacking. This is their first time away from home and they have to follow COVID-19 protocols. It's going to be a different experience. Buried by seven penalties, the Coyotes fell behind the Golden Knights early in their 5-2 loss this past Wednesday. I'm expecting the Coyotes to play much better today under favorable situational elements. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NHL | Jan 22, 2021 Rangers vs Penguins |
OVER 6½ -103 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| The Rangers are averaging just 2.5 goals in their first three games. Ryan Strome and Alexis Lafreniere, the first overall pick in the draft, are off to slow starts. Neither has produced a single point yet. That's going to change. It could happen here against the Penguins, who are giving up 4.7 goals a game. Things don't figure to immediately improve for the Penguins defense either. Pittsburgh has a cluster blue line problem with only three healthy defensemen. The Penguins are going to be forced to use inexperienced players and low quality veterans to fill defensive positions. Their plight isn't helped by poor goalie play. The Rangers' net play has been spotty, too. The Penguins have scored three or more goals in three of their four games. The Over is 9-1-1 the last 11 times the two teams have played in Pittsburgh. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Jan 22, 2021 San Diego State vs Air Force |
UNDER 127½ -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
|
Not only are these two defensive-minded teams, but they also rank first and second in terms of slowest pace in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is an upper tier defensive team ranking 12th in the country, giving up 60.7 points per game. Air Force ranks among the bottom teams scoring-wise at 58.9 points. The Falcons have failed to reach 60 points in four of their last six games. They rate 342nd in the nation in scoring. Air Force catches a break in that San Diego State won't have their leading scorer, senior Matt Mitchell. He has a knee injury and won't play for at least another week. MItchell averages 15.3 points, the only Aztec player to average more than 13 points. MItchell had played in 114 out of a possible 114 games for the Aztecs before his injury. His likely replacement is Keshad Johnson, who recently returned from a shoulder injury and averages only 3.2 points. There are several pertinent Under trends that dovetail together - The Under is 7-1 the last eight times San Diego State has played a sub .500 opponent and the Under is 22-7 the past 29 times Air Force has met a team with a winning record. |
||
| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NHL | Jan 23, 2021 Kings vs Blues |
Blues -1½ +145 at pinnacle |
|
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| The Kings have opened with four tough games, two of which went into overtime. After hosting the Wild twice and Avalanche twice, the Kings take to the road for the first time this season. The road has not been kind to the Kings. They have lost 41 of their past 58 away contests. This is LA's third game, too, in five days. The Blues have been idle since Wednesday when they lost 2-1 at home to the Sharks in a shootout. The Blues are rested and anxious to put that defeat behind them. It's a bad spot for the Kings, fresh off their first win, 4-2, against Colorado two days ago. I can see the Blues winning by multiple goals. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NBA | Jan 23, 2021 76ers vs Pistons |
Pistons +7 -107 at pinnacle |
|
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Impressive. That's the word coming to mind in reviewing how the 76ers beat the Celtics this past Wednesday and Friday. Both of those 76ers' victories came in Philadelphia. Now the 76ers travel to Detroit to face the Pistons in an obvious letdown spot. Philadelphia is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The 76ers were 12-26 SU on the road last season. They are 2-4 SU and ATS away from home this season with road losses to the Grizzlies and Hawks in their past two away games. The Pistons are hungry for a victory after blowing a 17-point lead against the Hawks this past Wednesday in an overtime loss and then falling by one point, 103-102, to the Rockets this past Friday. Detroit is capable of pulling the straight-up upset having already defeated the Heat, Celtics and much-improved Suns this season. This is the 76ers' third game in four days. So they might choose to rest, or limit, the minutes of superstar center Joel Embiid. Philadelphia is 15-34-2 (31 percent) in its last 51 away contests. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Jan 23, 2021 St. Mary's vs San Francisco |
St. Mary's +3 -105 at linepros |
|
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| This has been a down season for St. Mary's, but the Gaels still are playing their trademark tough defense. Only 20 teams give up fewer points per game than St. Mary's, which surrenders an average of 61.8. The Gaels have owned San Francisco winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past three. The buy sign is back on the Gaels after they halted a three-game losing streak with a victory against Loyola-Marymount this past Thursday. Note that two of St. Mary's losses during this span occurred to BYU and top-ranked Gonzaga. St. Mary's is 13-5 ATS against opponents with a winning home mark. The Dons are coming off a blowout victory against Santa Clara. They are 0-5 ATS the past five times following a win. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Jan 23, 2021 McNeese State vs Houston Baptist |
McNeese State +3 -108 at BetCris |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| I see the wrong team being favored in this Southland Conference matchup. McNeese State is 6-8. The Cowboys are senior dominated. They rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.9, which is 14 points more per game than Houston Baptiste, which averages 72.5 points. Houston Baptiste is 2-11. The Huskies are 1-7 in their last eight games with their lone victory during this time frame coming in overtime. They are 7-18-1 ATS in their past 26 home games. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Jan 23, 2021 West Virginia vs Kansas State |
Kansas State +11½ -105 at linepros |
Lost $105.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| Kansas State hasn't been very good this season, but the Wildcats are getting healthier and they catch West Virginia at home at an opportunistic time. The Mountaineers haven't played in two weeks due to COVID-19 issues. They missed games against Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State. They've also had to miss a lot of practice time. West Virginia hasn't been a good road team either covering only three of its past 12 away matchups. | ||
| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
|
NCAA-B | Jan 23, 2021 Kansas vs Oklahoma |
Kansas -1 -114 at Draft Kings |
Lost $114.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
|
Usually you pay a premium in order to back Kansas. Not this time, though. The marketplace is a little down on the Jayhawks because they've lost two in a row for the first time in two seasons. Those losses, though, came to second-ranked Baylor and to Oklahoma State, which is close to being a Top-25 team. Both defeats came on the road. This is a circle-the-wagons game for Kansas and the Jayhawks hold a big talent edge on Oklahoma. The Sooners have won two straight. Those were home victories against Kansas State and TCU. Those teams, along with Iowa State, have the worst conference records in the Big 12. The last time Oklahoma met an above .500 conference opponent was Kansas on Jan. 9. The Jayhawks shot poorly from 3-point range and the free throw line yet still beat Oklahoma, 63-59, although failing to cover as seven-point home favorites. Now the Jayhawks are basically being asked to just win the game in order to get the money. Kansas has covered 69 percent of the time during their past 67 games following a loss. They also are 11-1 ATS in their past 12 road contests versus an opponent with a winning home mark. |
||
|
SERVICE BIO |
|---|
|
Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
LEAD EXPERT
STAY CONNECTED
