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Stephen Nover Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 24, 2024
Magic vs Pistons
Pistons
+8 -110 at circa
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Orlando is one of the more improved teams this season. The Magic came out of All-Star break with an impressive, 116-109, road win against the Cavaliers two days ago. 

The Magic are young, though. I don't trust their mentality to bury the Pistons in what is a letdown and look-ahead spot for them. The Magic have a bigger game on tap Sunday when they play the Hawks in Atlanta. 

Detroit lost, 129-115, on the road to the Pacers this past Thursday in its first game following All-Star break. The Pistons were rusty in the first half, but scored 45 points in the third quarter. They outscored the Pacers by 15 points in the second half. 

Now the Pistons get to play their first home game since Feb. 4 when they lost, 111-99, to the Magic. Detroit is a better team with a healthy Cade Cunningham, who had 30 points and eight assists against the Pacers. 

The Pistons have quietly been effective point spread-wise at home covering seven of their last nine home contests.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 24, 2024
CS-Northridge vs CS-Fullerton
CS-Northridge
+2½ -120 at Mirage
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Even though Cal-State Fullerton is playing at home, it's a surprise the Titans are favored. Cal-Northridge is the superior team. 

The Matadors average nine more points per game than Fullerton and defeated the Titans by five points at home on Jan. 13 as a four-point favorite. 

Northridge has proven itself on the road, too, winning eight times. This includes an eight-point upset win against Santa Barbara four games ago. 

Fullerton has lost five times already at home. The Titans are 1-5 in their last six overall games.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 24, 2024
Pepperdine vs San Francisco
OVER 149½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Pepperdine has gone Over in five of its last six games. The Waves are averaging 90 points in their last two games, but their defense remains awful.

Pepperdine ranks 269th in scoring defense, 357th in defensive field goal percentage and 356th in 3-point defense. Just three games ago they yielded 103 points to St. Mary's, which is 27 points above the Gaels' season average. 

San Francisco certainly can exploit such a weak defense, especially at home. The Dons average 78.6 points. They rank 12th in field goal percentage. The Dons have scored at least 90 points in four of their last seven home games. 

Defensively, though, the Dons have surrendered 70 or more points in eight of their last 10 games.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 24, 2024
Duke vs Wake Forest
Duke
+2½ -105 at linepros
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row.

Wake Forest is 14-0 at home, the only ACC team without a home loss. But the 17-9 Demon Deacons aren't as good as the 21-5 Blue Devils, who are 12-3 in the ACC compared to Wake Forest's 9-6 league mark.

I was far more impressed with Duke's 84-55 road victory against Miami this past Wednesday than Wake Forest's, 91-58, home victory against Pittsburgh, which shot just 29 percent from the field vs the Demon Deacons.

Duke handled Wake Forest, 77-69, as seven-point home favorites on Feb. 12. So I find plenty of line value on the Blue Devils as an underdog.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Feb 25, 2024
Predators vs Ducks
OVER 6 -120 Tie
Play Type: Premium

The Predators have scored well during the first four games of their road trip. They've produced 18 goals in those four games and now draw the defensively-challenged Ducks. Anaheim ranks 30th defensively. 

If you discount a 5-1 win against the Senators, the Ducks are giving up an average of 5.3 goals during their last six games. 

The Ducks, though, have scored at least four goals in three of their last five games and draw the Predators playing the finale of a five-game road trip. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 25, 2024
Magic vs Hawks
UNDER 226½ -115 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Yes, the Hawks are a high-scoring bad defensive team. So, why go Under? Because the dynamics are not usual for the Hawks in this matchup.

Trae Young is out. The superstar guard leads the Hawks in scoring and assists by a wide margin. He has a finger injury. Center Clint Capela is back. He had missed six games until returning for Atlanta's last game. Capela is rounding into shape. He gives Atlanta strong rebounding and shot-blocking, averaging 10.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game.

Orlando is the opposite of Atlanta. The Magic rank sixth defensively, but 25th in scoring.

The Magic are playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights. They endured a much tougher game than expected last night. Orlando was able to edge Detroit, 112-109, on Saturday night in a hard-fought game. So don't look for the tired Magic to push pace. The Hawks' tempo could be slowed, too, with Young not playing.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 25, 2024
Siena vs Fairfield
Siena
+16 -110 at Ace
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Siena has been an easy fade as the Saints are one of the worst teams in college basketball with a 4-22 record, including 3-12 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.

But I'm going to be on the Saints today getting this many points because Fairfield is in a major letdown spot. The Stags moved into second place in the MAAC after upsetting conference leader Quinnipiac, 85-81, as a road underdog just two days ago.

That was a great victory for Fairfield. The Stags, though, are not some great power. They have a losing ATS mark and have dropped four games at home.

Siena does have one good player, Sean Durugordon. He's averaging 19.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.

The Saints were only three-point 'dogs when they lost at home to Fairfield, 93-69, on Jan. 5. Now look at how high the point spread is.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 25, 2024
Nuggets vs Warriors
Warriors
+1 -110 at SC Consensus
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

Never count out Stephen Curry and the Warriors. Golden State is making its move winning 10 of its last 12 games. This includes a 2-0 mark since the All-Star break with double-digit home victories against the Lakers and Hornets.

Look for the Warriors to continue their momentum against the defending world champion Nuggets.

Denver also is 2-0 coming out of All-Star break. However, the Nuggets' victories were against two patsies - the Wizards and Trail Blazers. Denver had gone 0-3 in its three previous games with a pair of losses to the Kings and one to the Bucks.

Now the Nuggets face another real opponent. The Warriors should be extremely motivated. Not just because they have triple revenge having gone 0-3 to the Nuggets this season losing those games by an average of four points. But because they are playing their best ball, are home and need to prove they can beat the Nuggets.

Jamal Murray is questionable for the Nuggets. Murray, Denver's second-leading scorer, missed the Nuggets' last game because of shin splints.

SERVICE BIO

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.